A journey through the Victorian labour market Ivan Neville Assistant Secretary Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch
Regional Victoria is older and has lower population growth May 2019 30.0 25.2 25.0 20.0 Per cent (%) 16.9 13.6 15.0 10.0 7.2 5.0 0.0 Increase in the civillian population over the Proportion of the population aged 65+ (%) last five years (%) Greater Melbourne Rest of Victoria
Regional Victoria’s age problem is not going away Projected population age distribution in Victoria 2019 1994 2044 Regional Victoria Greater Melbourne 85+ 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 Age group share of total population (%) 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 Age group share of total population (%)
Labour market conditions in Victoria remain strong Key indicators, year to June 2019 • Employment – up by 126,500 (or 3.9 per cent), above the decade annual average growth rate of 2.5 per cent • Full-time employment – up by 71,900 (or 3.2 per cent) • Part-time employment – up by 54,500 (or 5.2 per cent) • Unemployment rate – 4.8 per cent, down from 5.5 per cent a year ago • Participation rate – 66.1 per cent, up by 0.4 percentage points over the year
Labour market conditions in Melbourne have been particularly strong Over the year to June 2019: • Greater Employment up by 100,200 (or 4.0 per cent). • Unemployment rate down by 1 . 0 percentage Melbourne point to 4.7 per cent. • Participation rate up by 0.2 percentage points to 67.3 per cent. Over the year to June 2019 • Employment up only modestly, by 10,600 (or 1.5 per cent). Rest of • Unemployment rate down by 1.0 percentage Victoria point to 4.3 per cent. • Participation rate down by 0.6 percentage points to 61.2 per cent.
Disparity in unemployment rates at the LGA level High unemployment small areas: Corio – Norlane (21.6%) Broadmeadows (18.8%) Meadow Heights (17.6%) Campbellfield – Coolaroo (15.2%) Melton (15.1%) Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, August 2018 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business
The structure of employment is changing Change in share of employment May-09 to May-19 (% points), main employing industries Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria 2.6 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.4 0.3 Education and Training 1.5 0.6 Public Administration and Safety 1.0 1.9 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0.6 0.1 Accommodation and Food Services -0.4 -0.2 Retail Trade -1.5 0.4 Construction 2.1 -3.7 Manufacturing -2.5 0.0 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -1.1
Industry growth in the city Employment growth in Greater Melbourne, five years to May 2019 Professional, Scientific Health Care and Social Construction Retail Trade and Technical Services Assistance 56,200 jobs 48,500 jobs 39,400 jobs 59,900 jobs Mining Wholesale Trade 1,600 jobs 700 jobs
And it’s expected to continue Projected employment growth in Greater Melbourne, five years to May 2023 Professional, Scientific Education and Training Health Care and Social Construction and Technical Services Assistance 38,400 jobs 36,300 jobs 28,000 jobs 53,600 jobs Wholesale Trade Mining 3,300 jobs 500 jobs
Industry growth in the regions Employment growth in regional Victoria, five years to May 2019 Health Care and Social Public Administration and Construction Education and Training Assistance Safety 12,300 jobs 12,500 jobs 20,100 jobs 10,700 jobs Agriculture, Forestry and Retail Trade Fishing 6800 jobs 4000 jobs
Same suspects to provide future growth Projected employment growth in regional Victoria, five years to May 2023 Health Care and Social Accommodation and Food Construction Education and Training Assistance Services 4,600 jobs 6,200 jobs 13,900 jobs 4,300 jobs Mining 200 jobs
Strong construction growth across all sectors Employment growth in Construction sectors over the five years to May 2019, Victoria 0.0% 50.0% 100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0% 34.9 Construction Services Construction declined 22.2% by 14,700 over the year to May 2019 18.1 Non-Residential Building Construction Construction Services 258.8% declined by 15,700 15.6 Residential Building Construction 65.8% 7.9 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 51.8% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
The Manufacturing industry Employment over the five years to May 2019 Victoria 100 jobs Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria 2,200 jobs 2,100 jobs 4-quarter averaged data
Food and Beverage Manufacturing Employment over the five years to May 2019, Victoria Beverage Manufacturing 4,400 jobs Meat and Meat Product Manufacturing 3,900 jobs 25.3 per cent of Victoria’s Manufacturing industry are employed in the Food Product Manufacturing sector Dairy Product Manufacturing 3,200 jobs Fruit and Vegetable Processing 2,500 jobs Other Food Product Manufacturing 5,200 jobs
Advanced Manufacturing Forging the path ahead Employment over the five years to May 2019, Victoria Advanced Manufacturing* Strong growth in: Pharmaceutical and Medicinal 2,400 jobs Product Manufacturing (3,200) Other Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing (1,300) *Excluding Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing, which declined by 10,300.
Smart industry needs smart workers Index of online vacancies for skilled occupations (March 2011 = 100) Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria Share of skilled vacancy growth in regional 200 Victoria over the five years to June 2019: 150 Health Professionals 33% Bendigo & High 100 Country 32% Geelong & Surf Coast 50 25% 0
Invest in your workforce Apprenticeship and Traineeship commencements and completions, Victoria 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Commencements Completions
Recruitment difficulty is increasing Recruitment difficulty in Victoria - proportion of employers, by skill level, year 55% 47% 48% 44% 36% 42% 34% 30% 25% 2016 2017 2018 Lower Skilled Higher Skilled Total
Skill shortage research Proportion of skilled vacancies that were not filled, Victoria 60% 56% Technicians and Trades 50% Professions 40% 30% 32% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Trade shortages Victoria National* ● Motor Mechanics ● Automotive Electrician ● Sheetmetal Trades Worker ● Aircraft Maintenance Engineer ● Panelbeater ● Stonemason ● Vehicle Painter ● Glazier ● Bricklayer ● Wall and Floor Tiler ● Carpenters and Joiners ● Baker ● Plumbers ● Pastrycook ● Hairdresser ● Butcher or Smallgoods Maker ● Cabinetmaker ● Arborist Regional Victoria ● Metal Fabricator Metropolitan Victoria ● Fibrous Plasterer
Why do trade vacancies remain unfilled in Victoria? Average applicant Why are applicants numbers have fallen in unsuitable? recent years, and most (86%) are regarded by Less than half hold a formal employers as trade qualification unsuitable Why are qualified In addition, around two thirds applicants unsuitable? of qualified applicants are regarded as unsuitable Many lack the required trade and industry specific experience
Despite strong employment growth, LTU remains above pre-GFC levels 40.0 35.0 Long-term unemployed ('000) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Greater Melbourne Rest of Vic.
Who has been missing out? The jobactive caseload in Victoria, June 2019 Trade or TAFE 29,300|16,500 Age 50+ 24,500|13,300 People With Disability 24,700|12,700 Culturally and Linguistically Diverse 32,000|3,000 Mental Health 13,000|6,600 Ex Offender 7,300|5,100 University 9,900|2,000 Refugee 9,600|1,000 Indigenous 2,000|3,000 Caseload Total 87,500|44,200 Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria
Migration has been a key contributor to employment growth in Victoria Over the five years to June 2019: • Persons born overseas made up 52.1 per cent of employment growth • The proportion of total employment comprised of recent migrants up by 1.5 percentage points to an equal record high of 6.0 per cent in June 2019
Skilled migrants are not being fully utilised Proportion (%) of working age population who have a Cert III or above qualification November 2016, Victoria 45 Proportion (%) of working age population who 40 have a Certificate III or above 35 13% 30 25 5% 11% 9% 20 15 3% 4% 20% 10 13% 12% 5 0 OTMESC MESC Aus. Born Not in the labour Force Unemployed Employed in lower skilled occupations
The gig economy Not as big of a problem as is speculated nor a new phenomena 8.0 Secondary jobs as a % of total filled • Secondary jobs – 982,700 in March 2019 7.0 6.9 6.7 nationally 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.0 • Secondary jobs make up less than jobs 4.0 7 per cent of total filled jobs 3.0 • Worker’s main job accounted for 86.0 per 2.0 cent of total jobs growth over the year to 1.0 March 2019 0.0 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Nov-13 Jul-14 Mar-15 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19
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