Victorian labour market Ivan Neville Assistant Secretary Labour - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A journey through the Victorian labour market

Ivan Neville Assistant Secretary Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

Regional Victoria is older and has lower population growth

May 2019

13.6 16.9 7.2 25.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Increase in the civillian population over the last five years (%) Proportion of the population aged 65+ (%) Per cent (%) Greater Melbourne Rest of Victoria

Age group share of total population (%) 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85+ Age group share of total population (%) Regional Victoria Greater Melbourne

1994 2019 2044

Regional Victoria’s age problem is not going away

Projected population age distribution in Victoria

Labour market conditions in Victoria remain strong

Key indicators, year to June 2019

• Employment – up by 126,500 (or 3.9 per cent), above the decade annual average

growth rate of 2.5 per cent

• Full-time employment – up by 71,900 (or 3.2 per cent)
• Part-time employment – up by 54,500 (or 5.2 per cent)
• Unemployment rate – 4.8 per cent, down from 5.5 per cent a year ago
• Participation rate – 66.1 per cent, up by 0.4 percentage points over the year

Labour market conditions in Melbourne have been particularly strong

Over the year to June 2019:

• Employment up by 100,200 (or 4.0 per cent).
• Unemployment rate down by 1.0 percentage

point to 4.7 per cent.

• Participation rate up by 0.2 percentage points to

67.3 per cent.

Rest of Victoria

Over the year to June 2019

• Employment up only modestly, by 10,600 (or 1.5

per cent).

• Unemployment rate down by 1.0 percentage

point to 4.3 per cent.

• Participation rate down by 0.6 percentage points

to 61.2 per cent.

Greater Melbourne

Disparity in unemployment rates at the LGA level

High unemployment small areas: Corio – Norlane (21.6%) Broadmeadows (18.8%) Meadow Heights (17.6%) Campbellfield – Coolaroo (15.2%) Melton (15.1%)

Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, August 2018 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business

The structure of employment is changing

Change in share of employment May-09 to May-19 (% points), main employing industries

• 1.1
• 2.5

2.1

• 1.5
• 0.4

0.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.0

• 3.7

0.4

• 0.2

0.1 1.9 0.6 0.3 2.6 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Manufacturing Construction Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria

Health Care and Social Assistance 59,900 jobs

Industry growth in the city

Employment growth in Greater Melbourne, five years to May 2019

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 56,200 jobs Retail Trade 39,400 jobs Construction 48,500 jobs Wholesale Trade 700 jobs Mining 1,600 jobs

Education and Training 28,000 jobs Health Care and Social Assistance 53,600 jobs

And it’s expected to continue

Projected employment growth in Greater Melbourne, five years to May 2023

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 38,400 jobs Construction 36,300 jobs Wholesale Trade 3,300 jobs Mining 500 jobs

Public Administration and Safety 12,300 jobs

Industry growth in the regions

Employment growth in regional Victoria, five years to May 2019

Health Care and Social Assistance 20,100 jobs Education and Training 10,700 jobs Construction 12,500 jobs Retail Trade 4000 jobs Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 6800 jobs

Same suspects to provide future growth

Projected employment growth in regional Victoria, five years to May 2023

Accommodation and Food Services 4,600 jobs Health Care and Social Assistance 13,900 jobs Education and Training 4,300 jobs Construction 6,200 jobs Mining 200 jobs

Strong construction growth across all sectors

Employment growth in Construction sectors over the five years to May 2019, Victoria

7.9 15.6 18.1 34.9 51.8% 65.8% 258.8% 22.2% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0% Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Residential Building Construction Non-Residential Building Construction Construction Services 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Construction declined by 14,700 over the year to May 2019 Construction Services declined by 15,700

The Manufacturing industry

Employment over the five years to May 2019

Victoria 100 jobs Regional Victoria 2,100 jobs Greater Melbourne 2,200 jobs

4-quarter averaged data

Food and Beverage Manufacturing

Employment over the five years to May 2019, Victoria Beverage Manufacturing Meat and Meat Product Manufacturing Dairy Product Manufacturing Fruit and Vegetable Processing Other Food Product Manufacturing 4,400 jobs 3,900 jobs 3,200 jobs 2,500 jobs 5,200 jobs

25.3 per cent of Victoria’s Manufacturing industry are employed in the Food Product Manufacturing sector

Advanced Manufacturing

Forging the path ahead

Employment over the five years to May 2019, Victoria

Advanced Manufacturing* 2,400 jobs

*Excluding Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing, which declined by 10,300.

Strong growth in:

Pharmaceutical and Medicinal Product Manufacturing (3,200) Other Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing (1,300)

Smart industry needs smart workers

Index of online vacancies for skilled occupations

(March 2011 = 100)

Health Professionals 33% Bendigo & High Country 32% Share of skilled vacancy growth in regional Victoria over the five years to June 2019: Geelong & Surf Coast 25%

50 100 150 200 Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria

Invest in your workforce

Apprenticeship and Traineeship commencements and completions, Victoria

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Commencements Completions

Recruitment difficulty is increasing

Recruitment difficulty in Victoria - proportion of employers, by skill level, year

25% 30% 42% 47% 44% 55% 34% 36% 48%

2016 2017 2018

Lower Skilled Higher Skilled Total

Skill shortage research

Proportion of skilled vacancies that were not filled, Victoria

56% 32%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Technicians and Trades Professions

Trade shortages

Victoria National*

• Motor Mechanics
• Automotive Electrician
• Sheetmetal Trades Worker
• Aircraft Maintenance Engineer
• Panelbeater
• Stonemason
• Vehicle Painter
• Glazier
• Bricklayer
• Wall and Floor Tiler
• Carpenters and Joiners
• Baker
• Plumbers
• Pastrycook
• Hairdresser
• Butcher or Smallgoods Maker
• Cabinetmaker
• Arborist

Regional Victoria

• Metal Fabricator

Metropolitan Victoria

• Fibrous Plasterer

Average applicant numbers have fallen in recent years, and most (86%) are regarded by employers as unsuitable In addition, around two thirds

• f qualified applicants are

regarded as unsuitable Many lack the required trade and industry specific experience Less than half hold a formal trade qualification

Why do trade vacancies remain unfilled in Victoria?

Why are qualified applicants unsuitable? Why are applicants unsuitable?

Despite strong employment growth, LTU remains above pre-GFC levels

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Long-term unemployed ('000) Greater Melbourne Rest of Vic.

Who has been missing out?

The jobactive caseload in Victoria, June 2019

87,500|44,200 2,000|3,000 9,600|1,000 9,900|2,000 7,300|5,100 13,000|6,600 32,000|3,000 24,700|12,700 24,500|13,300 29,300|16,500 Caseload Total Indigenous Refugee University Ex Offender Mental Health Culturally and Linguistically Diverse People With Disability Age 50+ Trade or TAFE Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria

Migration has been a key contributor to employment growth in Victoria

Over the five years to June 2019:

• Persons born overseas made up 52.1 per cent of employment

growth

• The proportion of total employment comprised of recent

migrants up by 1.5 percentage points to an equal record high

• f 6.0 per cent in June 2019

Skilled migrants are not being fully utilised

Proportion (%) of working age population who have a Cert III or above qualification November 2016, Victoria

20% 13% 12% 5% 3% 4% 13% 9% 11% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 OTMESC MESC

• Aus. Born

Proportion (%) of working age population who have a Certificate III or above Not in the labour Force Unemployed Employed in lower skilled occupations

The gig economy

Not as big of a problem as is speculated nor a new phenomena

6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.9 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Nov-13 Jul-14 Mar-15 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19 Secondary jobs as a % of total filled jobs

• Secondary jobs – 982,700 in March 2019

nationally

• Secondary jobs make up less than

7 per cent of total filled jobs

• Worker’s main job accounted for 86.0 per

cent of total jobs growth over the year to March 2019

Digital Platform Work in Australia

• Survey of 14,000 adult internet users conducted in early 2019

nationally

• Found 7.1 per cent worked through a digital platform currently
• r have done so within last 12 months

–Victoria’s proportion was slightly higher, at 7.4 per cent

Source: Digital platform work in Australia: preliminary findings from a national survey Department of Premier and Cabinet, State of Victoria 2019

Secondary jobs more prominent in some industries

Secondary jobs as a proportion of total filled jobs, March 2019, Australia

6.9 7.3 7.4 7.7 8.4 11.1 11.5 25.6 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 All industries Accommodation and Food Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Information Media and Telecommunications Arts and Recreation Services Education and Training Administrative and Support Services Secondary jobs as a % of total filled jobs

Unique challenges exist

Issues

• Regional areas’ ageing population
• Strong growth in industries

creating skill shortages and recruitment difficulty

• Skill shortages might worsen with

the significant investment in infrastructure Solutions

• Invest in training
• Job seekers could be used to

meet skill shortages with training

• Migrants’ skills need to be fully

utilised