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Kingston Conference on International Security NATO and Russia: Has the ship already sailed? Dr. Marc Ozawa, Research Division 12 June 2019 NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Overview Current state of NATO-Russia relations and recent 1. developments

SLIDE 1

NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Kingston Conference on International Security

NATO and Russia: Has the ship already sailed?

Dr. Marc Ozawa, Research Division

12 June 2019

SLIDE 2

NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Overview

Current state of NATO-Russia relations and recent developments

Ongoing impasse over Crimea and conflicting world views

Sanctions and the oil factor

Russo-Chinese relations

Implications for the North Atlantic alliance

SLIDE 3

NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

NATO-Russia relations

Expert group – starting point of analysis

*(30 participants (practitioners and academics) from all regions of NATO plus Ukraine, Georgia and Russia – mostly professionals focused on Russian studies)

ØImpasse over Crimea ØLow probably of Article 5 ØProbability of more sub Article 5 aggressive activity ØDespite deadlock NATO can play a constructive role in risk reduction, strategic

awareness development among the member states and coordinating stakeholders

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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Current state of affairs

ØDeterrence and dialogue – increased NATO

presence in the Eastern Flank (EFP and NRF/VJTF) but NRC also met in January for first time in 2019

ØApparent end of the INF Treaty ØContinued Russian military posturing (Zapad and

Vostok) in the Eastern, Northern and Southern Flanks (Syria)

ØSea of Azov/Kerch Strait ØElection interference and information warfare

(societal destabilization)

ØSkripal case

Source: “Kerch Strait Incident in Detail. Analysis.,” FleetMon.com

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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Waning effects of sanction

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenues 11367.65262 12855.54062 13019.93948 14496.8805 13659.24294 13460.04069 15088.91484 19454.74116 Expenditures 10925.61742 12894.98675 13342.92164 14831.57591 15620.25257 16416.44684 16420.30308 16709.27718

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 (bln rub)

Sanctions and the federal budget of Russia (2011-18)

Deficit Surplus Sanctions implemented

Source: Data from the Ministry of Finance (Russian Federation)

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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Natural resource economy –

‘Petrostate’ (Goldman: 2008)

*Courtesy of Oil Industry News 2015

IEA oil price outlook to 2020

is $ 82-79/bbl (IEA: 2016)

Break even estimation: $45-

55

*Courtesy of Geopolitical Futures: 2015; data from EIA, Russian Ministry of Finance and Reuters

The oil factor

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Russian National Wealth Fund in (bil USD) Oil price in USD/bbl (Brent)

Estimated break even range

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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Russo-Chinese relations

Ø BRI presence in Russia’s near abroad Ø Power asymmetry Ø ‘Axis of convenience’ or ‘lasting strategic partnership’? Ø Russia’s ‘Pivot to the East’ – growing trade levels compared to EU Ø Power of Siberia, Yamal LNG Ø Growing trade since 2014

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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Russo-Chinese relations (cont.)

Ø Vostok Ø Multi-level momentum in

cooperation but top-down driven; question of sustainability

Ø History repeating?

Source: DD Wu. “Xi-Putin Meet on SCO Summit Sidelines to Strengthen China- Russia Ties.” The Diplomat.

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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Main points

ØPolicy of deterrence and dialogue continues ØRussia’s orientation has shifted toward the East, but what this will yield in the mid to long

term is still unclear

ØRussia’s economy has become more resistant to sanctions but structural problems remain ØOn going impasse over Crimea – meanwhile Russia continues military posturing and sub-

Article 5 aggressive activities

ØIf relations improve, it will probably result from member state initiation rather than at the

NATO level

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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE

Bibliography

British Broadcasting Corporation, and SBS-TV Enhance-TV. Putin, Russian and the West. Enhance TV, 2012. DD Wu Diplomat The, “Xi-Putin Meet on SCO Summit Sidelines to Strengthen China-Russia Ties,” The Diplomat, accessed June 11, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/xi-putin-meet-on-sco-summit-sidelines-to-strengthen-china-russia-ties/. ‘GDP Growth (Annual %) | Data | Table’. Accessed 18 February 2017. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?page=2. Goldman, Marshall I. Petrostate Putin, Power, and the New Russia. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press, 2008. Hansen, Flemming Splidsboel. “Do the CIS Member States Share Foreign Policy Preferences?” Journal of Eurasian Studies 6, no. 1 (January 1, 2015): 69–78. Non-attributed. “Russian Defense Policy Presentation.” presented at the International Week Conference, Kyiv, April 3, 2019. “Panel Discussion on Russia.” Workshop discussion, Rome, November 2, 2018. Snegovaya M. “What Factors Contribute to the Aggressive Foreign Policy of Russian Leaders?” Probl. Post-Communism Problems of Post- Communism, 2019. ‘Transparency International - Russia’. Accessed 19 February 2017. https://www.transparency.org/country/RUS. Ozawa, Marc. “NATO and Russia: Has the ship already sailed?” Unpublished manuscript drawing on Roman Banya workshop at the NATO Defense College, Rome, 2019. “World Energy Outlook 2018.” WEO. Paris: International Energy Agency, 2018. “Гость Максим Орешкин. Познер. Выпуск От 05.03.2018.” Accessed May 31, 2019. https://www.1tv.ru/shows/pozner/vypuski/gost-maksim-

reshkin-pozner-vypusk-ot-05-03-2018.

“Минфин России :: Федеральный Бюджет.” Accessed February 27, 2019. https://www.minfin.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/. ‘Одобрение Органов Власти’. Accessed 19 February 2017. http://www.levada.ru/indikatory/odobrenie-organov-vlasti/. ‘Совещание По Экономическим Вопросам’. Президент России. Accessed 18 February 2017. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53889.