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Kevin D. Lafferty US Geological Survey Marine Science Institute, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Kevin D. Lafferty US Geological Survey Marine Science Institute, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Kevin D. Lafferty US Geological Survey Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara Spatial and Temporal trends in global malaria: How do climate change and economics interact? Why Malaria? Largest source of
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A few malaria facts Caused by a protozoan that infects blood. Three species, with Plasmodium falciparum being the most dangerous. Control efforts include: Mosquito control: wetland destruction, poisons, biological control Preventative medicines (for travelers) Treatment with chemotherapy Vaccines? Unlikely
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Temperature response Climate projection artens et al. 1995
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Process-based model for changes in malaria
Thomas et al. 2004
Present
Contraction Expansion
2025 2055 2085
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Rogers and Randolph 2000 Science
Statistical-based malaria projection
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20 40 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year
- 0.4
- 0.3
- 0.2
- 0.1
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 m ean global tem perature ( dev) mean global temp (dev) % global area malaria
How has disease responded to climate change?
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Hay et al. 2004 Lancet
Contraction of malaria over time
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20 40 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year
- 0.4
- 0.3
- 0.2
- 0.1
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 m ean global tem perature ( dev) mean global temp (dev) % global area malaria
How has disease responded to climate change?
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
- 0.25
- 0.05
0.15 0.35 0.55 Tem perature ( decadal global m ean dev)
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- 10
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5 10 15 % global m alaria ( detrended)
How has disease responded to climate change?
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
- 0.25
- 0.05
0.15 0.35 0.55 Tem perature ( decadal global m ean dev)
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- 10
- 5
5 10 15 % global m alaria ( detrended)
How has disease responded to climate change?
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Land-use change and malaria reduction in Britain
Kuhn et al. 2003 PNAS
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Questions
- Why has malaria contracted from some
regions but not others?
- Hyp 1: economics (treatment, habitat
destruction, vector control, indoor living)
- Hyp 2: climate (temperature & precipitation)
- How Can GPD cancel out climate?
- How much will climate change override
current economic effects?
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Approach
- Develop a statistical model that explains
changes in the temporal and spatial distribution of malaria at a global scale.
- Malaria Data: Lysenko Map for historical
data, plus new maps for current data. Spatial resolution varies due to reporting.
- Climate data: lots
- Economic data: Spatial only to country level.
- Can we do better than using nations as
replicates?
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How to incorporate space?
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- 1.5
- 1
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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 National prevalence of T. Lester residuals NEO-PI-R
Especially facets of vulnerability and impulsiveness
Anxious, depressed, self-conscious, impulsive, vulnerable Relaxed, confident, secure, optimistic
Neuroticism increases with Toxoplasma prevalence
R2 = .30
Lafferty 2006 PRSL
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QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture.
Present conditions, Hay et al. 2009
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1995 Per capita GDP
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Current rainfall and precipitation
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