Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy, Psychology and the Effects of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy, Psychology and the Effects of ‘Economic War’

! ! British Library! ! Monday April 30th, 2012! ! !

Professor Mel Bartley, UCL Professor Peter Taylor-Gooby, University of Kent Professor Edgar Jones, King’s College London James Lloyd, The Strategic Society Centre

An ESRC Research Centre

1

…...bridging social and biological sciences www.ucl.ac.uk/icls

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Unemployment and health in the life course

• Long history of concern with health impact
• f unemployment
• In the 1930s, attempts were made to deny

any effect

• Charles Webster “Healthy or Hungry

Thirties” found that it depended on region

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Effect on health of recessions

• Even in a deep recession, most working

age men remain employed

• 20% unemployment rate is very high (this

is what they have at present in Spain)

• What happens to those who remain in

work?

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Working through a recession

• Those who remain in work may become more

anxious and insecure about their jobs

• In order to keep working after redundancy,

people tend to have to accept jobs with lower pay, less job security and often more work hazards

• But prices often fall as well, so money buys more

(e.g. at present mortgage interest is low)

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Does recession influence health?

• Not a clear question. Could mean:

– Do recessions damage population health? – Does unemployment damage health of individuals

• Mental health
• Physical health
• Life expectancy

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Employment and unemployment rates, UK 2007-9

Working age employment rate January 2007 to July 2009

72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76

Jan-Mar 2007 May-Jul 2007 Sep-Nov 2007 Jan-Mar 2008 May-Jul 2008 Sep-Nov 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 May-Jul 2009

Quarter Rate (%)

Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey

Working age unemployment rate January 2007 to July 2009

5 6 7 8 9

Jan-Mar 2007 May-Jul 2007 Sep-Nov 2007 Jan-Mar 2008 May-Jul 2008 Sep-Nov 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 May-Jul 2009

Quarter

Rate (%)

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Trajectories of unemployment in present and previous recessions from “Jobs Crisis”, John P martin, OECD Observer No 274, October 2009

2007---- 1973---- 1979---- 1990---- 2000----

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Unemployment and economic inactivity: diverging trends 1980-2008

Men 16-64 1980 to 2008

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 % Unemployment Inactivity

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload2.asp 23 Feb 2009

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Changes in employment status and mental health

• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3

Employed T1 Unemployed T1 Size of effect Employed T2 Unemployed T2

Worse mental health Better mental health

Summary of longitudinal studies on unemployment and mental health

Source: Paul & Moser J Voc Behavior 2009

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Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Men

Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse; Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012

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Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Women

Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

11

Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012

An ESRC Research Centre

Suicide and suspected suicide mortality in England and Wales 1971-2008

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1971 1981 1991 2001 2003 Dec- 08 DSR/million Men Women

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Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: Men aged 50-59

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 13 Source: Akinwale et al JECH 2011

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Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: women aged 50-59

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 14

An ESRC Research Centre

Is unemployment bad for health?

• Mental health effects always accepted
• Mortality figures very controversial
• But have now been replicated 3 times
• Which is more than many studies of e.g.

drug effectiveness

• Has anyone costed the economic gains?

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 15

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