Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy, Psychology and the Effects of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy, Psychology and the Effects of ‘Economic War’ ! ! British Library ! ! Monday April 30 th , 2012 ! ! !

Professor Mel Bartley, UCL Professor Peter Taylor-Gooby, University of Kent Professor Edgar Jones, King’s College London James Lloyd, The Strategic Society Centre

An ESRC Research Centre www.ucl.ac.uk/icls …...bridging social and biological sciences 1

An ESRC Research Centre Unemployment and health in the life course • Long history of concern with health impact of unemployment • In the 1930s, attempts were made to deny any effect • Charles Webster “ Healthy or Hungry Thirties ” found that it depended on region

An ESRC Research Centre Effect on health of recessions • Even in a deep recession, most working age men remain employed • 20% unemployment rate is very high (this is what they have at present in Spain) • What happens to those who remain in work?

An ESRC Research Centre Working through a recession • Those who remain in work may become more anxious and insecure about their jobs • In order to keep working after redundancy, people tend to have to accept jobs with lower pay, less job security and often more work hazards • But prices often fall as well, so money buys more (e.g. at present mortgage interest is low)

An ESRC Research Centre Does recession influence health? • Not a clear question. Could mean: – Do recessions damage population health? – Does unemployment damage health of individuals • Mental health • Physical health • Life expectancy

An ESRC Research Centre Employment and unemployment rates, UK 2007-9 Working age unemployment rate Working age employment rate January 2007 to July 2009 January 2007 to July 2009 Rate (%) Rate (%) 76 9 75 8 75 74 7 74 73 6 73 72 5 Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 Quarter Quarter Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey

An ESRC Research Centre Trajectories of unemployment in present and previous recessions from “Jobs Crisis”, John P martin, OECD Observer No 274, October 2009 2007---- 1973---- 1979---- 1990---- 2000----

An ESRC Research Centre Unemployment and economic inactivity: diverging trends 1980-2008 Men 16-64 1980 to 2008 % 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Unemployment Inactivity http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload2.asp 23 Feb 2009

An ESRC Research Centre Summary of longitudinal studies on unemployment and mental health Changes in employment status and Worse mental mental health health 0.3 0.2 0.1 Size of effect 0 Employed T1 Unemployed T1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Better mental Employed T2 Unemployed T2 health Source: Paul & Moser J Voc Behavior 2009

An ESRC Research Centre Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “ caseness ” . Men Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012 Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

An ESRC Research Centre Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “ caseness ” . Women Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012 Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; 11 employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

An ESRC Research Centre Suicide and suspected suicide mortality in England and Wales 1971-2008 180 160 140 120 DSR/million 100 Men Women 80 60 40 20 0 1971 1981 1991 2001 2003 Dec- 08

An ESRC Research Centre Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: Men aged 50-59 www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 13 Source: Akinwale et al JECH 2011

An ESRC Research Centre Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: women aged 50-59 www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 14

An ESRC Research Centre Is unemployment bad for health? • Mental health effects always accepted • Mortality figures very controversial • But have now been replicated 3 times • Which is more than many studies of e.g. drug effectiveness • Has anyone costed the economic gains? www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 15

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