Just Transition Working Group Meeting #1 September 17, 2020 3:00-5:00pm
Just Transition Working Group (JTWG) Meeting #1 Agenda 1. Introductions 2. Statutory requirements 3. E3 Pathways summary presentation 4. Workforce programs 5. Power Plant inventory/Jobs study scope 6. Review JTWG draft timeline/Next Steps 2
Just Transition Working Group RuthAnne Roberta Reardon, John Rhodes Doreen Harris, Visnauskas Chair: Public Service Co-Chair Co-Chair Commission Commissioner: Homes Commissioner: Acting President & & Community Department of Labor CEO: NYSERDA Renewal Henry Garrido Omar Freilla Vincent Albanese Gary LaBarbera Executive Director: DC Founder & Director of Policy and President: Building 37 Coordinator: Green Public Affairs: LIUNA and Construction Worker Cooperatives Trades Council of Greater New York Michael Padgett Brian Raley Maritza Silva- James Shillitto Patrick Jackson Vice President of Principal Staff Farrell President: Utilities Director of Global Energy: Alcoa Engineer: Global Workers Union of Energy Management: Executive Director: Foundries America Local 1-2 Corning, Inc. ALIGN Ted Skerpon Lara Skinner Candis Tolliver Randy Wolken Chair: IBEW Local 97 Political Director: 32BJ President: MACNY & Executive Director: & Utility Labor Council The Worker Institute SEIU Manufacturers at Cornell University Alliance 3
JTWG Statutory Requirements Task Name Description 8-A Advise on Advise the council on issues and opportunities for workforce development and training related to energy efficiency measures, renewable workforce energy and other clean energy technologies, with specific focus on training and workforce opportunities for disadvantaged communities, and segments of the population that may be underrepresented in the clean energy workforce such as veterans, women and formerly incarcerated persons 8-B Energy-intensive Identify energy-intensive industries and related trades and identify sector specific impacts of the state's current workforce and avenues to industry impacts maximize the skills and expertise of New York state workers in the new energy economy; 8-C Identify sites of electric generating facilities that may be closed as a result of a transition to a clean energy sector and the issues and Power plant closure and reuse opportunities presented by reuse of those sites; 8-D Carbon leakage and With respect to potential for GHG emission limits developed by DEC pursuant to this article, advise the council on the potential impacts of competitiveness carbon leakage risk on NY state industries and local host communities, including the impact of any potential carbon reduction measures on the competitiveness of NY state business and industry; 8-E Workforce advice Advise the council and conduct stakeholder outreach on any other workforce matters directed by the council; and outreach 8-F Recommendations At a time frame determined by the council, prepare and publish recommendations to the council on how to address: issues and to CAC on Issues opportunities related to the energy-intensive and trade-exposed entities; workforce development for trade-exposed entities, disadvantaged communities and underrepresented segments of the population; measures to minimize the carbon leakage risk and and Opportunities minimize anti-competitiveness impacts of any potential carbon policies and energy sector mandates. 8-G The just transition working group is hereby authorized and directed to conduct a study of and report on: i. The number of jobs created to Study on jobs and workforce needs / counter climate change, which shall include but not be limited to the energy sector, building sector, transportation sector, and working lands sector; ii. The projection of the inventory of jobs needed and the skills and training required to meet the demand of jobs to counter disruptions climate change; and iii. Workforce disruption due to community transitions from a low carbon economy. 4
CAC - Timeline to Draft Scoping Plan 2020 2021 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Climate Action Council Mtgs Work Recommendations Feedback as Advisory Panels Plan Development and Outreach needed JTWG Deliverable Prepare to Issue Climate Action Council Review Draft Integration Draft Scoping Integrated Strategy Analysis Plan Advisory Panels and Working Groups • Energy Efficiency and Housing • Transportation • Power Generation • Energy Intensive and Trade Exposed Industries • Agriculture and Forestry • Land Use and Local Government • Climate Justice Working Group • Just Transition Working Group 5
New York State Decarbonization Pathw ays Analysis Just Transition Working Group (JTWG) Discussion September 17, 2020
Key Takeaw ays This analysis reinforces the conclusion of the reviewed studies: Deep decarbonization is feasible using existing technologies Some studies rely on technologies that have only been demonstrated in a limited number of applications and require progress before commercial readiness Although there is no single pathway to a decarbonized economy, all scenarios that achieve carbon neutrality share significant progress in the following four pillars • Energy efficiency, conservation and end-use electrification • Switching to low-carbon fuels • Decarbonizing the electricity supply • Negative emissions measures and carbon capture technologies Review of the literature illustrates that choices exist in the extent and role of each. However, in all studies the scale of the transformation is unprecedented, requiring major investments in new infrastructure across all sectors. Consumer decision-making plays a large role in the transition, such as in passenger vehicles and household energy use. Continued research, development, and demonstration will be necessary to advance the full portfolio of options. Deliberative interagency work, not subject to FOIL 7
Key Takeaw ays Achievement of emissions reductions to meet state law requires action in all sectors A 30-year transition demands that action begin now Increased sales of high efficiency appliances, LEDs Ramp up sales of heat pump space heaters and water heaters 95-100% sales of heat pumps Ramp up sales of electric light-duty vehicles Net GHG Emissions [MMT CO2e] 60% electrified 50-70% sales of heat pumps industry 85-100% sales of efficient building shells 60-70% sales of ZEVs in LDVs 9% reduction 1.8-2.2 Million ZEVs on the road in LDV VMT from BAU 35-50% sales of ZEVs in MDV/HDVs* 40% renewable diesel Biofuels supply: 100% sales of in transportation, 8-18% of pipeline gas ZEVs in LDVs buildings, and industry ~100% distillate 0-70% jet fuel Advanced bio- ~95% sales of refining with ZEVs in CCS begins MDV/HDVs* 23-33 MMT CO 2 e stored through >85% Ren. 70% Ren. NWL 100% ZEE* 85% ZEE* *Zero-Emissions Electricity (ZEE) includes wind, solar, large hydro, nuclear, CCS, and bioenergy; MDV includes buses Deliberative interagency work, not subject to FOIL 8
Sectoral Findings
Greenhouse Gas Emissions New York Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Selected Years by Scenario Note: CO2e calculations do not fully reflect methodology required by CLCPA Percent reduction from 2016: 1990 2005 2030 2050 2016 100% 53%-56% 2030 4%-26% 47%-54% 31%-33% 86%-97% Limited High 2050 88%-97% 30%-40% Non- Technology Energy 6% 81%-82% 32%-38% 81%-86% Limited High Non- Technology Energy Deliberative interagency work, not subject to FOIL 10
Transportation, Buildings, and Industry High Technology Availability Pathway TRANSPORTATION Increased vehicle efficiency and major Final shift to zero-emission vehicles (battery energy electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel demand cell) across all vehicle classes reduced by half Substantial reductions in vehicle miles of travel through smart growth, transit , and other transportation demand management measures BUILDINGS & INDUSTRY Efficiency across all building end-uses and building shell scales dramatically Major shift to end-use electrification in buildings , particularly in space and water heating In industry, continued investment in energy efficiency with innovation over time in areas like electrification and carbon, capture, utilization, and storage LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE FUELS Share of remaining combustible fuel use in medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets, non-road transportation, buildings, and industry met by low-carbon renewable fuels ( e.g., advanced biofuels or synthesized fuels) Deliberative interagency work, not subject to FOIL 11
Timing of Building Electrification Residential Space Heating Stock Residential Space Heating Sales High Technology Availability Pathway High Technology Availability Pathway Residential Space Heating Energy Use High Technology Availability Pathway Deliberative interagency work, not subject to FOIL 12
Timing of Vehicle Electrification Light Duty Vehicle Stock Light Duty Vehicle Sales High Technology Availability Pathway High Technology Availability Pathway Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine PHEV Electric Vehicle Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Stock High Technology Availability Pathway High Technology Availability Pathway Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid Electric Vehicle Deliberative interagency work, not subject to FOIL 13
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