IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers

• ver Energy

11.45am - 1.30pm | 7th November 2018 | The Pierhead Building | Cardiff Bay

Welcome: Auriol Miller, Director, IWA

IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy

Re-energising Wales Project

Shea Buckland-Jones Institute of Welsh Affairs

An economic strategy for Wales?

• March 2015
• Renewable energy has an important

role to play in an ambitious economic strategy for Wales

Re-energising Wales

• Vision: ‘Meeting energy demand in Wales through

100% renewable energy by 2035’

• Three year project (2016-2019)
• Project steering group
• Six work packages (details on next slide)
• Short papers (‘Funding renewable energy projects in

Wales’ and ‘Decarbonising Transport’)

Work Packages

• 1. Energy demand
• 2. Swansea Bay City Region ‘Future Energy Vision’

case study

• 3. Economic impacts
• 4. Social and community issues/ownership
• 5. Regulatory, policy and political levers
• 6. Final report and action plan

Contact Details

shea@iwa.org.uk www.iwa.wales @IWA_Wales

Findings from the ‘Economic Impact of Energy Transition in Wales’ research: Professor Calvin Jones, Professor of Economics and Deputy Dean for Public Value and External Relations, Cardiff University

IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy

Re-energising Wales Project

The Economic Costs and Benefits of Renewable Energy Transition in Wales Calvin Jones Cardiff Business School

Objectives

• To imagine and cost a renewables fleet that would deliver 100% of

Wales’ territorial electricity demand in 2035 (with some wriggle room)

• To assess the investment cost of reducing GHG emissions by a

significant amount (~20%) from Wales’ domestic housing stock

• To estimate the economic impact – jobs and gross value added (GVA)

– consequent on the above investments

• To indicate where we just don’t yet know
• To examine wider opportunities & barriers in the renewables transition
• Brevity and clarity J

Method & Data

• Cost estimates per MW – capital plus 15yrs operations –based closely on

prior Wales-level studies plus BEIS*, industry and other data

• (Mostly) 2018 costs, ignoring likely cost reductions ->2020 for reasons of

comparability, higher cost of Welsh capital & installation

• Within-Wales spend estimated from variety of Welsh Economy Research Unit

studies 2013 – 2018

• Direct & Indirect/multiplier (supply chain, wage effects) estimated using Input-

Output Tables for Wales

NB – Our estimates are not directly comparable to Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

The Cost of Electricity Generation

The Economic Impact of Renewable Electricity Transition

The Cost and Economic Impact of Domestic Refurbishment

(20% Greenhouse Gas Saving)

A 34% Electrified Private Vehicle Fleet?

£160 m £575m £350-£400m £415m 3,000 FTEs

Caveats & Conclusions

• Significant economic opportunities herein require significant ramping up of

‘supply side’ in Wales – and ideally, greater local ownership

• Significant obstacles remain around funding/markets, grid, regulation…
• Loss (?) of lagoon(s) would mean winter baseload a key issue for a properly

renewable (i.e. non-nuclear) Wales

• Many elements of climate transition remain difficult to scope and cost – land

use, heat, industry/commercial etc. Some GHG remain in our scenario.

• However….

Much of this is do-able. And it’s all necessary

Findings from the ‘Regulatory and Policy Powers over Energy in Wales’ research: Hywel Lloyd, Founder, Facilitating the Future Ltd

IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy

Work Package Five

Regulatory, policy and political levers: A Framework for Action: Next steps for Regulatory and Policy Powers over Energy in Wales

Context

• 1. Welsh existing energy infrastructure
• 2. EU 2020, 2030 targets and directives
• 3. UK Renewable Energy Road Map 2011
• 4. EU Air Quality, Habitats & Emissions directives
• 5. UK Climate Change Act, Industrial Strategy

○ Low Carbon in 2009 & Clean Growth in 2017

• 6. Global Ambition
• 7. Welsh Ambition

Why? - Renewable Wealth in Wales

• 1. Wales needs to grow its economy, and reduce the

GVA gap….

• 2. Energy is an economic driver in its own right

○ as big as health in Wales . . . . ○ core to Prosperity for All ○ therefore in a future Economic Action Plan ○ as a Call for Action ○ and the Fifth Foundation Sector

What? - Renewable Wales

• 1. Renewable homes – Homes as Power Stations
• 2. Renewable mobility –all Wales refuelling

infrastructure for electric and hydrogen fuelled vehicles

• 3. Renewable economy – establish and support the

Welsh comparative advantage in hydrogen and marine renewables

With urgency

• 1. A Low Carbon Stimulus
• 2. A Welsh Government Cabinet Portfolio that

unites energy, home, place and community

• 3. Interim targets en route to 2035
• 4. Aligning the tools we have, building capacity, a

Welsh RIIO-2

• 5. Being prepared - for net-zero, for place orientated

energy governance

How do we make this happen? Open discussion

IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy

Closing Remarks: Llyr Gruffydd, Assembly Member, North Wales region

IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy

Thank you for coming.

IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy