IUMI Brussels meeting 2015 Cargo Presentation Patrizia Kern - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IUMI Brussels meeting 2015 Cargo Presentation Patrizia Kern - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 18, 2023 321 likes •795 views

IUMI Brussels meeting 2015 Cargo Presentation Patrizia Kern Ferretti Swiss Re Corporate Solutions Chairman Facts & Figures Committee 1 Economic Outlook Purchase Manager Index ( PMI ) GDP Forecast Inflation Forecast Short

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IUMI Brussels meeting 2015 Cargo Presentation

Patrizia Kern Ferretti Swiss Re Corporate Solutions Chairman Facts & Figures Committee

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Economic Outlook

  • Purchase Manager Index ( PMI )
  • GDP Forecast
  • Inflation Forecast
  • Short Term interest rates
  • Stock Market
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The global economic recovery continues, although it remains fragile and uneven. Recent slowdown in growth in key emerging markets such as China and Brazil and parts of Europe. Heightened geopolitical tensions (Greece, Ukraine, Middle East) creating headwinds.

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Economic activity generally expanding …but recent slowdown in some countries

20 30 40 50 60 70 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Purchasing Manager Indices

Germany France Italy China USA Japan UK EU Brazil

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Advanced economies projected to contribute more to the global upswing

Continued monetary policy accommodation as well as lower oil prices should support global aggregate demand and activity.

Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting

  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GDP real growth forecast

United States Euroland United Kingdom Japan South & East Asia World Brazil China India

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Inflation expected to remain contained, at least in the near-term

Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting

Given the extent of economic slack in the major economies, inflation is likely to remain contained even as growth continues.

  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Inflation (CPI) forecast

United States Eurozone United Kingdom Japan Brazil China India

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Short term interest rates

Source: Datastream

Short term market interest rates in the major economies remain very low. But prospective divergence in future path of monetary policies in major economies could cause problems for some emerging markets.

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Stock Market

Source: Bloomberg

Equity prices have generally continued to rise on strengthening company earnings, hopes of sustained global economic recovery and significant financial market liquidity.

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World Trade

  • Trade Overview
  • Commodity Prices
  • Freight Rates
  • Demand for transport
  • Trade flows
  • Port Activity index
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Trade stagnated in 2014 H1 on the back of lower GDP and import demand, particularly in natural resource export regions such as South and Central America. WTO Forecasts for world trade revised lower with significant downside risks.

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Trade growth remains subdued

  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Apr 2014 Sep 2014

% WTO forecasts for growth in world merchandise trade

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Level of world exports was well below trend till 2010, then it exceeded the trend, reflecting the economic recovery.

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Level of exports remain well below trend

* From 2008: China figures included. Premium in 1.000.000 us$ source: WTO / IUMI ** From 2010: Latin America (Brasil from 2006), Middle East and non-IUMI Asian figures included

index 100=1990

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 21000 23000 25000

Merchandise exports vs. Cargo premium volume *

Cargo Premium Volume Export Volume

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Oil & Gas prices have fallen at different speeds

Source: Bloomberg

Slower prospective growth in key commodity importing nations such as China has hit demand for oil. At the same time, excess supply has (linked to US shale gas extraction and continued OPEC production) contributed to sharp fall in oil and gas prices.

50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Oil & Gas Spot Index

Brent_Spot Gas_Spot

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Chocolate crunch

Ebola-linked disruptions in W. Africa have pushed cacao prices higher.

Source: International Financial Statistics (IMF)

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Other agriculture prices have generally eased recently

Source: Bloomberg

Effect of US drought in 2012 pushed corn prices higher. After increased volatility in recent years, better balanced supply and demand is underpinning some easing in agricultural commodity prices.

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Industrial metal prices: Metals

Weakening growth in China dragging down industrial metals prices. Precious metals affected by investment demand and "safe haven" flows.

Source: Bloomberg 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Metals Spot Index

Gold_Spot Silver_Spot Platinum_Spot Copper_Spot

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China needs Steel

China's infrastructures building programme represents an increasing demand

  • f Iron Ore, and local supply is not enough to satisfy it.

Source: Bloomberg

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Chinese iron ore imports

1000 metric tonnes

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Freight rates have weakened again

Freight rates under pressure from weakening import demand from China and persistent excess shipping capacity. But sentiment in the shipping industry is reportedly improving on hopes of a prospective upturn in freight rates.

Source: Bloomberg

5000 10000 15000 20000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Baltic Panama Index Baltic Supramax Index Capesize

source: Bloomberg

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Demand for transport: Seaborne trade

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MnT

Source: MSI, August 2014

General Cargo Container Cargo Liquid Bulk Dry Bulk

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Ranking From To Volume % of WT 1 Asia North America 1012 5.53% 2 Asia Europe 855 4.67% 3 Middle East Asia 703 3.84% 4 Europe Asia 667 3.64% 5 Europe North America 506 2.76%

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Trade Flows in 2013

Source: WTO website. Units: billion US$

Intra-region Trade Inter-region Trade

Ranking Region Volume % of WT 1 Europe 4'560 24.92% 2 Asia 3'076 16.81% 3 North America 1'189 6.50%

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Cargo Accumulations

  • Ports and Warehouses Accumulations
  • Stock Throughput: Thailand floods
  • Accumulations on Vessels
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Source: Swiss Re Safe Havens Publication 2010

Ports and Warehouses Accumulations: A challenge for Re / Insurers

  • Uninsured goods / double insured goods
  • Seasonality
  • Value per TEU
  • Dwell time
  • …

TIV

  • Perils
  • Type of packing
  • Loss Prevention / Mitigation
  • …

Goods Exposure

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'Superstorm' Sandy – a record breaking catastrophe( 1 / 2 )

  • Superstorm Sandy struck on the evening of the 29th October 2012

southwest of Atlantic City, N.J.

  • Estimated to be 6th costliest event in global insurance history
  • Insured losses accumulated to $ 18.8 billion excluding another $ 7.1 billion

covered by NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program)

  • Economic losses are estimated at $ 70 billion
  • Set historical records for water levels in NY, NJ & Connecticut
  • Caused 280 fatalities & the loss of homes and personal belongings for

thousands It has shown us that also the Northeast of America can be hit by hurricanes, hurricane season can last until Nov. 30th, the advantages of having flood coverages and existence and language of storm deductibles.

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Superstorm Sandy – the consequences ( 2 / 2 )

  • Electrical transformers in commercial buildings hauled to upper floors
  • The ability to shutter key tunnels, airports and subways needed
  • Hospitals to have backup power on high ground instead of on lower floors or in basements
  • Insurance coverage including Storm Surge
  • 2nd costliest since Katrina in 2005
  • Increase Burglaries
  • Port and Terminal Operators contingency plans had only addressed wind; they are now also considering flood

and tidal surge

  • NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is developing a tool to help predict/project flood

extent from tidal surge

  • Former contingency plans included bringing in back-up generators and replacement equipment. During Sandy,

government agencies confiscated the backups to help save lives, a higher priority than the property. Insured/clients may not have access to these replacements in future events

  • Uniform and tighter definitions of the terms "Flood" and "Windstorm" have been added to all policies
  • Higher and percentage deductibles have been added to Cargo Warehouse policies, particularly locations

residing in Flood Zones A & B

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MV Rena Astrolabe Reef, New Zealand – 5th October 2011

5th October 2011

  • Rena ran aground

Astrolabe Reef, 12 nautical miles offshore

  • f Tauranga Harbour,

NZ

  • Ship had been declared

a total construction loss

  • 300-400t of bunker fuel

leaked & affected wildlife & shore

  • Vessel was carrying

1368 containers of which 88 had already fallen of board Wreck removal: $114m Pollution: £10m Cargo: $0.6m Severance pay & crew: $0.4m Gross reserve: $125m 2nd March 2012

  • Successful stripping

during first weekend in January

  • In bad weather Rena

broke in tow with stern section moving 30 meters away from bow section

  • Resulting in loss of

several containers Wreck removal: $164m Gross reserve: $175m 5th April 2012

  • Unforeseeable weather

conditions delayed removal

  • Significant change of

conditions & position of wreck

  • Intervention of NZ

authorities

  • April 4th the aft sank

further in bad weather Wreck removal: $105m Pollution: $30m Cargo: $35m Costs: $9m Iwi: $5m Crew: $6m Gross reserve: $300m 9th June 2013

  • Higher cost for marine
  • perations, beach

cleaning, pollution response and claims increased gross reserve

  • Weather & adverse

swells have caused numerous interruptions Wreck removal: $132m Cargo Handling: $70m Pollution: $30m Iwi: $10m Cargo or other claims: $10m Crew: $1m Gross reserve: $350m

Source: Radio New Zealand Source: Maritime New Zealand Source: New Zealand History Source: Antipodean Mariner

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Source: Wikipedia / Maersk Website

Accumulation on Vessels

19,100 TEU capacity 184,320 DWT

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Source: Wikipedia / Maersk Website

Accumulation on Vessels

Today

  • Length: 399 metres
  • Beam: 58 metres
  • Capacity: 19,100 TEU
  • DWT: 184,320
  • GRT: 187,541

Future

  • Length: 396 metres
  • Beam: 59 metres
  • Capacity: 19,224 TEU
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Accumulation on Vessels: Car Carriers

8,000 Cars

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Accumulation on Vessels: LNG Carriers

266.000 m3

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Accumulation on Vessels: Bulkers

DWT: 400.000 75.000.000 US$

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Accumulation on Vessels

DWT: 441.000 385.000.000 US$

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Appendix

  • World Trade Figures
  • Theft to cargo in Transit in Europe
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Intra- and inter-regional merchandise trade, 2013

Destination Origin North America South and Central America Europe CIS Africa Middle East Asia World Value World 3082 782 6669 566 618 760 5423 18301 North America 1189 216 368 19 40 78 501 2418 South and Central America 178 195 121 9 20 18 178 736 Europe 506 129 4560 253 222 220 667 6646 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 33 9 407 149 13 19 139 779 Africa 54 30 216 2 97 18 160 602 Middle East 110 11 143 6 38 135 703 1347 Asia 1012 191 855 128 188 270 3076 5773 Share of regional trade flows in each region's total merchandise exports World 16.8 4.3 36.4 3.1 3.4 4.2 29.6 100.0 North America 49.2 8.9 15.2 0.8 1.7 3.2 20.7 100.0 South and Central America 24.2 26.6 16.4 1.2 2.7 2.5 24.1 100.0 Europe 7.6 1.9 68.6 3.8 3.3 3.3 10.0 100.0 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 4.2 1.2 52.2 19.1 1.7 2.5 17.8 100.0 Africa 8.9 4.9 35.8 0.3 16.2 3.0 26.6 100.0 Middle East 8.2 0.8 10.6 0.5 2.8 10.1 52.2 100.0 Asia 17.5 3.3 14.8 2.2 3.3 4.7 53.3 100.0 Share of regional trade flows in world merchandise exports World 16.8 4.3 36.4 3.1 3.4 4.2 29.6 100.0 North America 6.5 1.2 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.7 13.2 South and Central America 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.0 Europe 2.8 0.7 24.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 3.6 36.3 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 0.2 0.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.8 4.3 Africa 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.9 3.3 Middle East 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.8 7.4 Asia 5.5 1.0 4.7 0.7 1.0 1.5 16.8 31.5

Source: WTO website. Units: billion US$

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Global Cargo Theft Risk - 2014

Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Germany: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Germany Heat Map Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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France: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

France Heat Map Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Italy: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Italy Heat Map Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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UK: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

UK Heat Map Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Spain: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Spain Heat Map Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Netherlands: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Netherlands Heat Map Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Belgium: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Belgium Heat Map Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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US: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Source: Freight Watchers

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Canada: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Source: Freight Watchers Canada Heat Map

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Mexico: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Source: Freight Watchers Mexico Heat Map

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Africa: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Source: Freight Watchers

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Asia: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Source: Freight Watchers China Heat Map Bangladesh Heat Map Philippines Heat Map India Heat Map

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Central & South America 1: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Source: Freight Watchers Brazil Heat Map Argentina Heat Map Venezuela Heat Map Guatemala Heat Map

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Central & South America 2: Theft Incidents Statistics 2014

Source: Freight Watchers Colombia Heat Map Peru Heat Map

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RISK LEVEL LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE

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Special thanks go to

  • Darren Pain and Samuel Luethi of Swiss Re Economic

Research and to Andrea Mazza of SR Corporate Solutions

  • Mikaela Tamm, Nicholas Derrick and all Cargo Committee

members for their great help in putting together this presentation

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