International Telecommunication Union Shaping the future mobile - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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International Telecommunication Union Shaping the future mobile - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 04, 2022 381 likes •514 views

International Telecommunication Union Shaping the future mobile information society: The case of the Kingdom of Norway Eric Lie ITU Strategy and Policy Unit New Initiatives Workshop on Shaping the Future Mobile Information Society Seoul,

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International Telecommunication Union

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The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

Eric Lie ITU Strategy and Policy Unit New Initiatives Workshop on Shaping the Future Mobile Information Society Seoul, Korea 4 - 5 March 2004 Shaping the future mobile information society: The case of the Kingdom of Norway

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International Telecommunication Union

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Mobile overtakes fixed

500'000 1'000'000 1'500'000 2'000'000 2'500'000 3'000'000 3'500'000 4'000'000 4'500'000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 GSM prepaid GSM subscriptions NMT PSTN and ISDN subscriptions

Fixed vs. mobile (NMT, GSM, GSM Prepaid ) subscriptions

Source: NPT

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International Telecommunication Union

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Who uses mobile telephony?

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 9 - 12 13 - 15 16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 66 67 - 79 Age Mobile - Men Mobile - Women Fixed - Men Fixed - Women

Daily mobile and fixed telephony use by gender and by age, 2001

Source: Telenor R&D

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International Telecommunication Union

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Trends in voice traffic

5'000 10'000 15'000 20'000 25'000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

  • Mil. minutes

Mobile to fixed Mobile to mobile Fixed to mobile Fixed to fixed

Source: NPT

Volume of traffic, millions of minutes, 1998 - 2002

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International Telecommunication Union

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The world in 160 characters

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1999 2000 2001 2002 SMS messages sent per user

Average number of SMS messages sent per user per annum, 1999 - 2002

Source: NPT

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International Telecommunication Union

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“Youth” and SMS

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 13 - 15 16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 66 67 - 79 Age Men Women

Daily SMS use by age and gender, 2001

Source: Telenor R&D

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International Telecommunication Union

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Premium services & MMS

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International Telecommunication Union

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Why mobile?

! Geography and demographics

  • Long distances and a harsh landscape
  • High per capita income

! Competitive market environment

  • Healthy price competition

! Perceptions and attitudes

  • Technology and things Scandinavian
  • Lifestyle

! An early start

  • Manual services introduced in 1966
  • Optimistic forecasting
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International Telecommunication Union

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Telepriser.no

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Mobile and technology

Annual growth in subscriptions: Manually operated, NMT and GSM

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Introduction

  • f NMT 450

Introduction

  • f GSM

Source: NPT

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International Telecommunication Union

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Optimistic forecasting

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 June 1990

N

  • rdic C
  • untries

S elected E uropean C

  • untries

Operator forecasts for mobile telephones per 1000 inhabitants, Nordic countries and selected European countries, 1986 - 1990

Source: CEPT/ELT/ESE documents 1985.

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International Telecommunication Union

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Thank you

http://www.itu.int/futuremobile Eric Lie eric.lie@itu.int