Intelligent Transport Policy Speaker: Professor David Metz, Centre - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Intelligent Transport Policy Speaker: Professor David Metz, Centre - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ask the Expert: Travel Fast or Smart? A Manifesto for an Intelligent Transport Policy Speaker: Professor David Metz, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London Chair: Nida Broughton , Social Market Foundation Wi-Fi Network:


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Speaker: Professor David Metz, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London Chair: Nida Broughton, Social Market Foundation

‘Ask the Expert’: Travel Fast or Smart? A Manifesto for an Intelligent Transport Policy

@SMFthinktank | smf.co.uk Wi-Fi Network: SMF Password: SMF_1989

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Travel Fast or Smart?

David Metz Centre for Transport Studies University College London

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21

DfT Capital Expenditure £bn

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Inconsistencies in transport policy

  • Closed under-used railways, but then demand

doubled

  • Privatised railways, but took NetworkRail back
  • Gave up investment in motorways, but now plan

major new construction

  • Vacillate on road pricing: London but not

elsewhere

  • Buses privatised outside London, but now other

cities allowed to adopt London model

  • Connectivity competes with Sustainability
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National Travel Survey

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 trips/10 miles/10 time(hours)

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Economic benefits of Crossrail

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High Speed 2

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Problems with investment appraisal based on travel time savings

  • Infrastructure investments are long-lived
  • Time savings are short run
  • Disregards

– Land use change and value enhancement – Spatial and socio-economic distribution of benefits

  • Biases

– against urban rail – in favour of inter-urban road construction, in the vain hope of ‘building our way out of congestion’ – against digital technologies

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Rethinking transport investment appraisal

  • Evidence based, not theory based - avoids double

counting benefits

  • Recognise enhancement of land values
  • Develop Spatial Economics
  • Joint planning of transport investment by planners,

developers and transport authorities

  • Determine monetary value of reliability to allow

appraisal of investment in digital technologies

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Average distance travelled by car (miles)

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Why has per capita travel growth ceased?

  • Younger people less interested in cars
  • Demand saturation – enough daily travel to meet
  • ur needs
  • Technological constraints prevent faster travel
  • Urbanisation – less scope for car use
  • Changes in company car taxation (UK)

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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 million vehic miles

Road Traffic in London

motor vehic cars

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London share of trips

10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 per cent Rail Bus Car Walk

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10 20 30 40 50 60 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

per cent

Share of journeys by car in London 1950- 2050

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Air travel: UK-USA and UK-Japan

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Passenger numbers, thousands Japan USA/10

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Heathrow expansion?

  • Future demand likely to be less, and more

uncertain, than Airports Commission believed

  • 70% of passengers on leisure trips
  • Case for more capacity is about business travel
  • Plenty of room at Heathrow for more business

travel if leisure travel displaced elsewhere

  • Very competitive aviation sector would meet

market demand, utilising capacity at Stansted etc

  • If it were easy to agree on expanding Heathrow,

worth doing, but if not, could manage without

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