Intelligent Transport Policy Speaker: Professor David Metz, Centre - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sep 24, 2023 121 likes •378 views

Ask the Expert: Travel Fast or Smart? A Manifesto for an Intelligent Transport Policy Speaker: Professor David Metz, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London Chair: Nida Broughton , Social Market Foundation Wi-Fi Network:

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Speaker: Professor David Metz, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London Chair: Nida Broughton, Social Market Foundation

‘Ask the Expert’: Travel Fast or Smart? A Manifesto for an Intelligent Transport Policy

@SMFthinktank | smf.co.uk Wi-Fi Network: SMF Password: SMF_1989

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Travel Fast or Smart?

David Metz Centre for Transport Studies University College London

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21

DfT Capital Expenditure £bn

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Inconsistencies in transport policy

Closed under-used railways, but then demand

doubled

Privatised railways, but took NetworkRail back
Gave up investment in motorways, but now plan

major new construction

Vacillate on road pricing: London but not

elsewhere

Buses privatised outside London, but now other

cities allowed to adopt London model

Connectivity competes with Sustainability

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National Travel Survey

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 trips/10 miles/10 time(hours)

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Economic benefits of Crossrail

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High Speed 2

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Problems with investment appraisal based on travel time savings

Infrastructure investments are long-lived
Time savings are short run
Disregards

– Land use change and value enhancement – Spatial and socio-economic distribution of benefits

Biases

– against urban rail – in favour of inter-urban road construction, in the vain hope of ‘building our way out of congestion’ – against digital technologies

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Rethinking transport investment appraisal

Evidence based, not theory based - avoids double

counting benefits

Recognise enhancement of land values
Develop Spatial Economics
Joint planning of transport investment by planners,

developers and transport authorities

Determine monetary value of reliability to allow

appraisal of investment in digital technologies

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Average distance travelled by car (miles)

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Why has per capita travel growth ceased?

Younger people less interested in cars
Demand saturation – enough daily travel to meet
ur needs
Technological constraints prevent faster travel
Urbanisation – less scope for car use
Changes in company car taxation (UK)

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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 million vehic miles

Road Traffic in London

motor vehic cars

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London share of trips

10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 per cent Rail Bus Car Walk

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10 20 30 40 50 60 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

per cent

Share of journeys by car in London 1950- 2050

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Air travel: UK-USA and UK-Japan

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Passenger numbers, thousands Japan USA/10

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Heathrow expansion?

Future demand likely to be less, and more

uncertain, than Airports Commission believed

70% of passengers on leisure trips
Case for more capacity is about business travel
Plenty of room at Heathrow for more business

travel if leisure travel displaced elsewhere

Very competitive aviation sector would meet

market demand, utilising capacity at Stansted etc

If it were easy to agree on expanding Heathrow,

worth doing, but if not, could manage without

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