Integrated Distribution Planning (IDP) Curt Volkmann President, New Energy Advisors, LLC curt@newenergy-advisors.com www.newenergy-advisors.com November 27, 2018 1
DER Growth and its Implications Significant growth in distributed generation, EE, DR, CHP, EVs, energy • storage, microgrids Increased flexibility • Increased complexity of distribution system planning and operations • New opportunities for customers and third parties to provide Local • Distribution Grid Services , reducing the need for ratepayer-funded capital investments – Distribution capacity or peak load reduction – Voltage regulation – Reliability/resilience – Hosting capacity November 27, 2018 2
Small and Targeted Investment Source: SolarCity Grid Engineering, 2016 November 27, 2018 3
Targeted Demand Response Individual customers providing and receiving compensation for Local Distribution Grid Services to reduce costs for all customers … November 27, 2018 4
Key Question for Regulators To what extent will you establish an open, competitive market for customers and third parties to provide Local Distribution Grid Services ? November 27, 2018 5
From today’s Distribution Planning … EE/DR Programs Load DG Interconnection Forecasting System Monitoring and Control System Assessment Distribution Planning Grid Needs Project Design and Identification Construction Solution Identification November 27, 2018 6
… to Integrated Distribution Planning EE/DR Programs Load and DER DG Interconnection Forecasting System and DER Hosting Capacity Monitoring and Control Analysis Integrated System Assessment Distribution NWA Acquisition Planning Grid Needs and Project Design and Locational Value Construction Identification Solution Identification including Non-Wires Alternatives (NWA) November 27, 2018 7
New IDP Capabilities Capability Description 1) Advanced Forecasting and System Probabilistic planning and DER adoption scenario analyses; more Modeling granular load and power flow modeling; enhanced modeling of new smart inverter capabilities; and the ability to monitor, manage and optimize DER connected to the system. 2) Hosting Capacity Analysis Determining how much additional DER each distribution circuit can accommodate without requiring upgrades. 3) Disclosure of Grid Needs and Locational Identification and publication of opportunities for DER to provide Value grid services as non-wires alternatives; identification and publication of locations on each circuit where DER deployment can provide grid benefits. 4) New Solution Acquisition Acquiring or sourcing DER to provide grid services using pricing, programs or procurement. 5) Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement Establishing processes for open dialogue, transparent information sharing, collaboration, and consensus building among stakeholders. November 27, 2018 8
Load Forecasting Today 90% 80% 70% % UTILIZATION 60% ACTUAL DEMAND 50% FORECAST DEMAND 40% CONSERVATIVE FORECAST MAXIMUM % UTILIZATION 30% 75% utilization is the desired maximum DESIRED % UTILIZATION 20% 70% utilization or less is preferred for operational flexibility 10% 0% 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 YEAR FIGURE 3. Typical Distribution Load Forecasting Results November 27, 2018 9
New IDP Capabilities Capability Description 1) Advanced Forecasting and System Probabilistic planning and DER adoption scenario analyses; more Modeling granular load and power flow modeling; enhanced modeling of new smart inverter capabilities; and the ability to monitor, manage and optimize DER connected to the system. 2) Hosting Capacity Analysis Determining how much additional DER each distribution circuit can accommodate without requiring upgrades. 3) Disclosure of Grid Needs and Locational Identification and publication of opportunities for DER to provide Value grid services as non-wires alternatives; identification and publication of locations on each circuit where DER deployment can provide grid benefits. 4) New Solution Acquisition Acquiring or sourcing DER to provide grid services using pricing, programs or procurement. 5) Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement Establishing processes for open dialogue, transparent information sharing, collaboration, and consensus building among stakeholders. November 27, 2018 10
Hosting Capacity Results November 27, 2018 11
New IDP Capabilities Capability Description 1) Advanced Forecasting and System Probabilistic planning and DER adoption scenario analyses; more Modeling granular load and power flow modeling; enhanced modeling of new smart inverter capabilities; and the ability to monitor, manage and optimize DER connected to the system. 2) Hosting Capacity Analysis Determining how much additional DER each distribution circuit can accommodate without requiring upgrades. 3) Disclosure of Grid Needs and Locational Identification and publication of opportunities for DER to provide Value grid services as non-wires alternatives (NWA); identification and publication of locations on each circuit where DER deployment can provide grid benefits. 4) New Solution Acquisition Acquiring or sourcing DER to provide grid services using pricing, programs or procurement. 5) Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement Establishing processes for open dialogue, transparent information sharing, collaboration, and consensus building among stakeholders. November 27, 2018 12
New IDP Capabilities Capability Description 1) Advanced Forecasting and System Probabilistic planning and DER adoption scenario analyses; more Modeling granular load and power flow modeling; enhanced modeling of new smart inverter capabilities; and the ability to monitor, manage and optimize DER connected to the system. 2) Hosting Capacity Analysis Determining how much additional DER each distribution circuit can accommodate without requiring upgrades. 3) Disclosure of Grid Needs and Locational Identification and publication of opportunities for DER to provide Value grid services as non-wires alternatives (NWA); identification and publication of locations on each circuit where DER deployment can provide grid benefits. 4) New Solution Acquisition Acquiring or sourcing DER to provide grid services using pricing, programs or procurement. 5) Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement Establishing processes for open dialogue, transparent information sharing, collaboration, and consensus building among stakeholders. November 27, 2018 13
New IDP Capabilities Capability Description 1) Advanced Forecasting and System Probabilistic planning and DER adoption scenario analyses; more Modeling granular load and power flow modeling; enhanced modeling of new smart inverter capabilities; and the ability to monitor, manage and optimize DER connected to the system. 2) Hosting Capacity Analysis Determining how much additional DER each distribution circuit can accommodate without requiring upgrades. 3) Disclosure of Grid Needs and Locational Identification and publication of opportunities for DER to provide Value grid services as non-wires alternatives (NWA); identification and publication of locations on each circuit where DER deployment can provide grid benefits. 4) New Solution Acquisition Acquiring or sourcing DER to provide grid services using pricing, programs or procurement. 5) Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement Establishing processes for open dialogue, transparent information sharing, collaboration, and consensus building among stakeholders. November 27, 2018 14
Getting Started with IDP • Establish clear objectives and guiding principles • Require utility reports to understand current capabilities – Planning methods and tools; spending categories and amounts; proposed HCA use cases; NWA suitability criteria and pilots • Establish IDP Technical Working Group(s) – DER adoption and growth scenarios; smart inverter functions and settings; NWA suitability criteria and process for pilots; HCA use cases, methodology, timeline for implementation; development of data sharing portals November 27, 2018 15
Additional resources … https://gridlab.org/publications/ November 27, 2018
Additional resources (continued) … … plus RMI’s upcoming NWS Playbook November 27, 2018
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