PURPO RPOSE SE OF THE IDP REPFORUM PFORUM 34 Annual review and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PURPO RPOSE SE OF THE IDP REPFORUM PFORUM

34 Annual review and amendment of integrated development plan A municipal council- (a) must review its integrated development plan- (i) annually in accordance with an assessment of its performance measurements in terms of section 41; and (ii) to the extent that changing circumstances so demand; and (b) may amend its integrated development plan in accordance with a prescribed process.

PURPO RPOSE SE OF THE IDP REPFORUM PFORUM

Represent the interest of the municipality`s constituency in the IDP Process. Provide an organisational mechanism for discu cussio ion, , neg egotia iation and d decis cisio ion makin ing g between the stakeholders inclusive of municipal government. Ensure communication between all the stakeholder representatives inclusive of municipal government. Monitor the performance of the planning and implementation process.

RO ROLES S OF THE IDP REPFORU FORUM

Form a structural link between the municipality and the public by informing interest groups, communities and

• rganisations on relevant planning activities and their
• utcomes.

Analyse and integrate issues affecting the various sectors, determine priorities, strategies, projects and programmes and identify budget requirements. Discuss and comment on the draft IDP/Budget. Monitor performance of the planning and implementation process through the Quarterly and Mid- year Performance Reports and the Annual Report of the municipality

Content ents

• Pla

lann nning ing in in un uncer certaint inty, for resilie silience nce and nd decli decline ne and nd the he SA SA expe perie rience nce

• The

The cur current ent eco economic mic resil esilie ienc nce

• f
• f

Post stma masbur sburg

• Findings

Findings: Spatia ial Pla lann nning ing and nd resili ilience nce in in Post stma masbur sburg

• Conclusio

clusions ns

Planning ng and uncerta tain inty ty

What at is a Spatia atial Devel elopment ent Framew amework (SDF DF)?

Source: Department of Rural Development and Land Reform (2014) – SDF Guidelines

• Spatial plann

nning ng: re re-ima magining a place with pro roposals to achieve that vision

• Must be futur

ure-ori

• riented and consider

r the long term

• But planners don’t focus on the

longer-ra range future due to

• Lack of skills

s

• Overwh

whel elmed ed with day-to to-day day issues es

• Political

al 5-year term creates ‘short- sightedness’

• Complex

exity and uncer ertainty

Spa patial tial plan anning ing in SA

Many ny spa patia ial develo lopment ment frame mework rks s

• Too bro

road d to be useful ul

• Too utopi

pian, n, not inform rmed d by facts s or theory

• Don’t appreciate complexity and cannot deal with

them m

• Do not integrate sectors/stakeholder’s plan or

socia cial/ l/eco conomi nomic/env nvir ironm nment ntal aspe pect cts s

• Unabl

ble to anticip icipate change nge – hence ce canno not build ild spa patia ial l re resilie silience nce

Planning ing for r decline ine

• Plann

nning ing tradit ditio ionall nally dealt with h grow rowth: h: declining clining & stagnat gnating ing citie ies s now a re reali lity

• East Germany

any

• USA ‘rust belt’
• Mining

ng towns ns / resour urce ce towns ns (Welkom, Matlosana ana, Coal Rim in KZN)

Planning ing for r decline: ine: re reaction tions

• Revers

rse decline

• Altern

ernat ative e economic c base: e: knowl wled edge ge industries es/ altern ernat ative e indu dust stries es/ tourism sm / service ce centre

• Skills

s devel elopm pmen ent

• Reside

dential al attract activen venes ess

• Accept: ‘creative shrinkage’
• Demolition of va

vacant buildi dings gs

• Conso

solidat dation of plots s

• Creat

ative e (tem empo porar ary) use e of open spa paces/ ces/vacan cant buildi ding g for entrep epren eneu eurial activities es

• Clean

aning g and green ening

• Allow

w nature e to reclai aim space e

The current t econom

• mic

ic resilien ience of Postmas asbu burg g

Tsantsabane GVA: 1995

I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [QSIC 6] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I09: General government [QSIC 91]

Tsantsabane GVA: 2015

I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [QSIC 6] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I09: General government [QSIC 91]

South Africa GVA: 2015

I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [QSIC 6] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I09: General government [QSIC 91]

Tsantsabane GVA: 2015

I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [QSIC 6] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I09: General government [QSIC 91]

Population.

Accordi ding to census 2011, there are 35 093 people ple in the municip icipality lity Of these, , 52, , 8% are Africa ican bl black, , 37, , 6% are coloured, , and d 8, 4% are white Of those aged d 20 years and d older, , 13,9 ,9% % had d some primary schooli ling 5,3% % had d comple pleted d prim imary 35,4 ,4% % had some seconda dary 25,4 ,4 had matric ic Only 6,4% 4% had a higher er qualif alifica ication

Population cont….

13,7% had d no fo form m of schoo

• olin

ing 67% of the popul ulatio ion n consis ist between n 14 – 65 which equates to more than half

• f the population are young

4.4% of the total population equates to 65years 27% of the total population equates to 0 – 14 years

ZF Mgcawu cawu Populati tion

• n Growth

th

Highest growth rate in 2015 with a 2.6% population growth for the year Highest Gini-index in the district with 0.60 and Kgatelopele 0.59, respectively The 2 municipalities are the most unequal in the district In 2011 unemployment over 26% Youth unemployment already stood at 32%

Status of Basic services 2011 there were 9 839 households in the municipality

96,0% of the households have access to water. 68,9% of the population has access to flush toilet. 83,5% has access to internet facilities. 58,6% has access to refuse removal

ECONOMIC CLIMATE OR CURRENT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE

Largest contributor to the district economy, contributing R 5.6 billion during 2016 Mining sector which accounts for 45.8%

• f the local economy

Community services sector that contributes 17.6%

Findings gs – Review iew of the Postmasb sbur urg SDF

Calculation of change is either wrong, or unintelligible?

2002 2012 Change Number % Share Number % Share Number % Share Agriculture 1062 13.6 884 7.2

• 178

178

• 6.4

Mining 2821 36.1 6648 54.5 3827 3827 18.4 Manufacturing 316 4 322 2.6 6

• 1.4

Electricity 41 0.5 37 0.3

• 4
• 0.2

Construction 207 2.7 250 2 43 43

• 0.7

Trade 728 9.3 800 6.6 72 72

• 2.7

Transport 255 3.3 244 2

• 11

11

• 1.3

Finance 235 3 275 2.2 40 40

• 0.8

Community Services 1325 16.9 1850 15.2 525 525

• 1.7

Households 828 10.6 899 7.4 71 71

• 3.2

Total 7819 100 12209 100 4390

Correct calculations…

Despite starting with three population projections,

• nly the high projection was used for all the remaining

calculations in the document.

In 2016, Tsantsabane was estimated to have 11,821

• households. This SDF plans on their being 26,755

households by 2035 – this is more than double the population of the municipality in 2016.

Thi his plan propo poses es an an exten tension of

• f aroun

und 160 160 Ha Ha to to the the ind ndus ustrial area

• eas. As

As th the exi xisti ting ind ndus ustrial area eas are onl nly abo bout ut 70 70 Ha, the the propo posed ed expa pans nsion nea early tripl ples es the the ind ndus ustr trial footp tprint nt of

• f Postm

tmasbu

• burg. Given

ven tha hat manu nufactu turing ng GVA ha has dec declined ned from ZA ZAR 35 35 mi million in in 2002 2002 to to ZA ZAR 31 31 million in in 2013 2013 (at cons nsta tant nt 2005 2005 prices es), as as sho hown in in Figu gure 3, it it is is hi high ghly unlikel kely that this new indus ustr trial land will be be developed ped witho hout (subs bsta tanti ntial) incenti ntive ves.

Manufactu turing

Existing Existing

Proposed manufacturing area

Manufact ufactur uring ng GV GVA in TSB 1995-201 2013, 3, constant ant 2005 prices es

• In the TSB SDF there was a reasonable attempt to give a

descriptive account of the TSB economy. This account was however statistically flawed.

• However, the authors of the TSB SDF did not take into

account the ‘fragile’ nature of the PMB economy, specifically it’s extremely high reliance on the mining sector, and their the vulnerability of PMB economy to changes and fluctuations in the international and national iron markets.

• Furthermore, there was almost no recognition that

mining might downscale, or cease altogether. It was simply assumed that the current economic trajectory would continue unchanged.

• Lastly,

their was an unrealistic expectation

• f

manufacturing growth planned for in PMB.

Summar mary

Pot

• ten

entia ial l effects s of

• f the

the lack ack of

• f

cons

• nsid

iderati tion of

• f ec

econ

• nomic

ic resi esili lience in n the the TSB SB SDF SDF on

• n Pos
• stm

tmasburg

Assume me firstly tly th that a mi middle le cl class household buys ys a house in in Postma tmasburg in in 2013 2013 for R1, 002 002 mi milli lion – whic ich is is roughly ly the aver verage house price ce in in this is to town wn at at th that time time at at co consta tant Ju June 2012 2012 figures (Ce (Centre for Affordable le Housing Fin inance ce in in Afric ica, 2015 2015). Assume me seco condly th that the property ty ma market has th the same me ch change in in property ty value over ver a ten ten year period as as an an ave verage house in in South th Afric ica betw tween 2000 2000-201 2010, as as shown in in Table le 4.

This would result in in th the value of

• f

th the hou

• use ch

changi ging from

• m R1.002

002 million, to to R1.9639 9639 million

• n, a retu

turn

• f
• f 0.96396 million.

Year Welkom (example of a declining mining area) South Africa 2001 907 258 626 381 2002 906 489 683 458 2003 645 105 758 687 2004 634 711 948 547 2005 734 528 1 146 919 2006 684 543 1 280 798 2007 644 578 1 400 773 2008 654 008 1 361 859 2009 617 907 1 216 686 2010 518 913 1 225 054 10 year change

• 43%

96%

Formal rmal

Now change the second assumption to suppose that the property value of the house has seen the same change

• ver the ten year period between 2000-2010 as an

average middle to upper class house in Welkom, as shown in Table 4. (Welkom represents a property market affected by mine downscaling - Marais 2013; Marais and Nel, 2016). In this scenario, the value of the house falls from R1,002 million, to R0,4208 million, a loss of R0,581 million, and a loss of R 1,3828 million when compared to investing elsewhere in South Africa during this same time period.

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Before 1990 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year individuals who resided in informal settlements at the time of the survey migrated into Postmasburg (excluding individuals who have never resided outside of Postmasburg).

Informal rmal

The lack of foresight and resilience will also affect the livelihoods and well-being of lower income households. Better skilled people have a greater probability of finding new employment than low skilled households should the local economy shrink due to downscaling of mining activity (Laduma. 2007; Martines-Fernandez et al, 2012.) Th Thus house seholds ds wit with low low skil skills, s, an and a housing inves estment in in the town wn, may ay beco ecome trapp apped ed in in a decl declining town wn wit with few few fu future pr prosp spects ects an and high gh de depe pende dency cy

• n
• n

so social al gran grants for for thei eir livel elihoods

• ds. Th

This has as be become the gr growin wing, g, an and wor worrying, g, tren end through ghout the rural areas of

• f South Africa (Xuza, 2010

2010). The challenge this raises for municipalities who have undiversified and highly variable economic base is to ensure that their intervention into the housing market

• f

low income households does not lock these households into the area.7

Co Conclusio ion

• SDF: Assumes ‘eternal growth’ of the town based on

economic growth patterns, plans for a) permanent housing structures and b) an extensive supply of land for both high and low income households. (Both in the SDF plan and in the municipal Capital Investment Framework.)

• This does not take into account the weak economic

resilience of the town, which is in part a product of lack of economic diversification. No additional manufacturing incentives, or significant efforts to diversify the economy are identified.

• Best case scenario: Economic growth is maintained for next

century …. Therefore, no collapse of housing market. Everyone keeps on getting richer, informal settlement continues to grow.

• Or the ‘Welkom’ scenario: Economic growth remains

strong for a few years, and then either declines gradually

• r suddenly, or becomes sporadic, leaving middle to high

income home owners with a ‘dead’ housing asset, and low-income households with a RDP house or serviced site & become ‘locked in’ to the town.

• We cannot know which scenario will occur, thus both (and
• thers) must planned for, and economic diversity must be

encouraged . This is the defining characteristic of spatial resilience as per SPLUMA’s definition. The weakness of the TSB SDF is that it only plans for the best case scenario, and not the worse case, and thus fails to achieve the criteria set for spatial resilience by SPLUMA.