Industry: 2018 Year in Review Hosted by Todd Olinsky-Paul, Project - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

State of the U.S. Energy Storage Industry: 2018 Year in Review

Hosted by Todd Olinsky-Paul, Project Director, CESA February 28, 2019

Energy Storage Technology Advancement Partnership (ESTAP) Webinar

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Energy Storage Technology Advancement Partnership (ESTAP) (bit.ly/ESTAP)

ESTAP Key Activities:

• 1. Disseminate information to stakeholders
• 2. Facilitate public/private partnerships to support joint

federal/state energy storage demonstration project deployment

• 3. Support state energy storage efforts with technical, policy

and program assistance

• ESTAP listserv >5,000 members
• Webinars, conferences, information

updates, surveys.

Massachusetts: $40 Million Resilient Power/Microgrids Solicitation: 11 projects $10 Million energy storage demo program Alaska: Kodiak Island Wind/Hydro/ Battery & Cordova hydro/battery projects Northeastern States Post-Sandy Critical Infrastructure Resiliency Project New Jersey: $10 million, 4-year energy storage solicitation: 13 projects Pennsylvania Battery Demonstration Project Connecticut: $50 Million, 3-year Microgrids Initiative: 11 projects Maryland Game Changer Awards: Solar/EV/Battery & Resiliency Through Microgrids Task Force

ESTAP Project Locations:

Oregon: 500 kW Energy Storage Demonstration Project New Mexico: Energy Storage Task Force Vermont: 4 MW energy storage microgrid & Airport Microgrid New York: $40 Million Microgrids Initiative Hawaii: 6MW storage on Molokai Island and HECO projects

ESTAP is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity and Sandia National Laboratories, and is managed by CESA.

4

Webinar Speakers

Dan Borneo Engineering Project Manager, Sandia National Laboratory

• Dr. Imre Gyuk

Director, Energy Storage Research, U.S. Department of Energy Todd Olinsky-Paul Project Director, Clean Energy States Alliance Dan Finn-Foley Senior Analyst - Energy Storage, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Gridscale Energy Storage, Goals and Directions

IMRE GYUK, DIRECTOR, ENERGY STORAGE RESEARCH, DOE-OE

ESTAP 2–28-19

DOE Office of Electricity, Priorities:

• Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

Restoration and Resiliency Efforts

• North American Energy Systems Resiliency Model
• Mega-Watt Scale Grid Storage
• Revolutionize Sensing Technology Utilization
• Operational Strategy for Cyber and Physical Threats

The Cost of a Storage System depends on the Storage Device, the Power Electronics, and the Balance of Plant ► Research on Materials, Devices, and Systems The Value of a Storage System depends on Multiple Benefit Streams, both monetized and Unmonetized ► Deployment, Benefit Valuation, Policy, Finance

Designing a Business Case:

Effective Business Cases:

Frequency Regulation, Substation Upgrade Deferral, Demand Charge Reduction. Resiliency, Military Energy Assurance, Emergency Preparedness. Peakers, Transmission Congestion

Current OE Activities: Supporting 20 Deployment Projects + Valuation Regional PUC Workshops ESTAP Webinars Codes and Standards The Global ES Data Base Valuation Tool - QUEST Policy Data Base Financial Summits

Obstacles and Impediments to Commercialization:

Safety, Reliability, Ecological and Sociological Issues, Re-Use, Recycling, Disposal

To develop Safe, Inexpensive, and Environmentaly Benign Batteries We must look towards Earth-Abundant Materials

Cost Goals for Focus Technologies

Manufactured at scale Li-ion Batteries (cells) $100/kWh V/V Flow Batteries (stack+PE) $300/kWh

___________________________________________________________________

Zinc Manganese Oxide (Zn-MnO2) 2 Electron System $ 50/kWh Low Temperature Na-NaI based Batteries $ 60/kWh Aqueous Soluble Organic (ASO) Redox Flow Batteries (stack+PE) $125/kWh

_____________________________________________________________________

Advanced Lead Acid $ 35/kWh

With new Technology Solutions Cost will go down, Safety and Reliability will increase With every successful Project the Value Propositions will continue to increase! More jobs will be created!!

Trusted Power and Renewables Intelligence woodmac.com

State of the U.S. energy storage industry

2018 year in review and trends to watch

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables | February 2019

Trusted Power and Renewables Intelligence woodmac.com

1 Wood Mac Power & Renewables - U.S. Energy Storage woodmac.com

Wood Mackenzie offices Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables offices

Wood Mackenzie is ideally positioned to support consumers, producers and financers of the new energy economy.

 Acquisition of MAKE and Greentech Media (GTM)  Leaders in renewables, EV demand and grid-connected storage  Over 500 sector-dedicated analysts and consultants globally, including 75 specifically to power and renewables  Located close to clients and industry contacts

About Wood Mackenzie

We provide commercial insight and access to our experts leveraging our integrated proprietary metals, energy and renewables research platform

2 Wood Mac Power & Renewables - U.S. Energy Storage woodmac.com

» Dan is a Senior Analyst with the Energy Storage team at Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables,

where he focuses on front-of-the-meter energy storage market trends and applications. He previously worked as a Senior Consultant with DNV GL where he focused on competitive energy markets and the intersection of emerging energy business strategies within the broader evolving technological and regulatory environment. Prior to DNV GL Dan worked with Navigant Consulting and the Department of Energy.

» Dan has over 9 years of experience in the energy space as a researcher, consultant, and analyst.

Dan holds a Master’s of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering degree from the University of Massachusetts Amherst Wind Energy Center and a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics-Physics from Brown University.

About the Analyst

Dan Finn-Foley Senior Analyst, Energy Storage

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Contents

1.Deployment trends 4 2.Technology and system price trends 9 3.Market drivers 15 4.Outlook 20 5.Trends to watch for 2019 and beyond 24

Deployment trends 1.

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• 20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Deployments (MW) Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

U.S. Q3 2018 deployments in megawatts rose 44% YOY

However, the market fell 3% QOQ

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• 50

100 150 200 250

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Deployments (MWh) Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

U.S. Q3 2018 deployments in megawatt-hours rose 3x YOY

For the second quarter in a row, YOY megawatt-hour growth tripled as average discharge duration increases

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Note: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables is currently monitoring 10 individual markets: Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, PJM and Texas

Top energy storage markets, Q3 2018

California leads across all segments Rank Residential Non-residential Front-of-the-meter 1 California California California 2 All Others Hawaii New York 3 Hawaii New York All Others

Top 3 markets by segment in Q3 2018 (power capacity)

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

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10 20 30 40 50 60 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1-Q3 2018 Deal count Disclosed value (millions USD) VC Project Financing Deal Count

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Note: The total disclosed investment in 2014 was boosted by a rumored $250 million investment in Boston-Power (shaded in the figure above); data excludes battery materials and upstream companies. 2014 data differs from U.S. energy storage monitor 2014 year in review due to exclusion of EV startup Atieva and inclusion of stealth startup Fluidic Energy.

Corporate investments in energy storage reached $246M in Q3 2018

Technology and system price trends 2.

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Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Lithium-ion still dominates the market with 97.5% share of MW in Q3 2018

Lead-acid held 1.7%, while a single vanadium-redox flow battery project took the remaining 0.8%

* “Other” includes flywheel and unidentified energy storage technologies.

Quarterly energy storage deployment share by technology (MW %)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Energy storage deployments by technology (MW) Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flow - Vanadium Flow - Zinc Other

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Front-of-the-meter system prices set to decline by more than 15% over the next two years

Low - $1,700 Low - $1,375 Median - $2,200 Median - $1,750 High - $2,600 High - $2,200 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Front-of-the-meter (4-hour) Q4 2018 Front-of-the-meter (4-hour) 2020E Q4 2018 system price ranges ($/kW)

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Front-of-the-meter fully installed system price trends, Q4 2018 and 2020E, 2-hour ($/kW)

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Front-of-the-meter fully installed system price trends, Q4 2018 and 2020E, 4-hour ($/kW)

Low- $1,200 Low - $850 Median - $1,475 Median - $1,150 High - $1,675 High - $1,450 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 Front-of-the-meter (2-hour) Q4 2018 Front-of-the-meter (2-hour) 2020E Q4 2018 system price ranges ($/kW)

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Front-of-the-meter system prices set to decline by more than 15% over the next two years (cont.)

Low- $700 Low - $575 Median - $825 Median - $675 High - $975 High - $775 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Front-of-the-meter (30-minute) Q4 2018 Front-of-the-meter (30-minute) 2020E Q4 2018 system price ranges ($/kW)

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Front-of-the-meter fully installed system price trends Q4 2018 and 2020E, 30-min ($/kW)

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Cost declines leveling off from steep drops but will persist

• 22%
• 22%
• 24%
• 24%
• 14%
• 14%
• 10%
• 9%
• 8%
• 8%
• 10%
• 11%
• 32%
• 27%
• 16%
• 8%
• 8%
• 7%
• 6%
• 5%
• 35%
• 30%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Year-Over-Year Decline (%) Battery Price BOS Cost decline Phase 1: Battery price reductions were the primary driver for system price declines Phase 2: Extreme reductions in BOS costs drove down system prices by more than 25% Phase 3: Continued reductions in battery prices and BOS costs are driven by production ramp-up, growing competition and improvements in system design and engineering Phase 4: As the storage market matures, both battery prices and BOS costs will continue to decline but the rate will be lower post-2020, with improvements arising from experience.

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables

Year-Over-Year Decline in Battery Price and BOS Cost, 2013 – 2022E (%)

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Low - $2,050 Low - $1,450 Median - $2,975 Median - $1,825 High - $3,800 High - $2,750 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Residential Non-Residential Q4 2018 system price ranges ($/kW)

High and low BTM prices remain mostly flat in Q4 2018

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Behind-the-meter fully installed system price trends Q4 2018, 2- hour ($/kW)

Market drivers 3.

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Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Front-of-the-meter policy and market developments, Q4 2018

New Jersey

PSE&G announced its $4 billion Clean Energy Future program, including $180 million for energy storage.

Virginia

Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy issued an RFP to evaluate the benefits of storage for the state.

North/South Carolina

Duke Energy will invest $500 million in energy storage over the coming years, with total deployments expected at 300 MW.

New York

Governor Cuomo announced $40 million under the NY-Sun program to support storage deployment. NY PSC accepted environmental review of the state’s storage roadmap. NYISO is considering storage participation and capacity market eligibility.

Alabama

Alabama Power’s latest capacity RFP shows energy storage is increasingly being recognized across the Southeast.

Nevada

Nevada Energy’s latest renewable energy RFP includes the opportunity for energy storage to be paired as a capacity asset. Voters rejected deregulation of the market, while increasing the state’s renewable portfolio standard.

California

CPUC approved 175 MW worth of storage contracts split between SCE and PG&E. CAISO continued market participation rulemaking for energy storage. FERC rejected portions

• f

SCE’s wholesale distribution tariff.

Federal

The Department of Energy announced the selection of 10 projects through the ARPA-E Duration Addition to Electricity Storage

• program. Senators Scott and Bennet sent

a letter to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin asking him to clarify Investment Tax Credit eligibility for storage systems.

Indiana

Northern Indiana Public Service Company launched its latest integrated resource plan, including potential energy storage.

ISO proceedings

Market design committees at CAISO, SPP, MISO, ISO-NE, NYISO and PJM continue to tackle issues related to FERC Order 841 compliance.

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Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

Behind-the-meter policy and market developments, Q4 2018

Virginia

Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy issued an RFP to evaluate the benefits of storage for the state.

Massachusetts

The state’s Department of Public Utilities issued the

• rder

finalizing the SMART program..

Federal

Senators Scott and Bennet sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin seeking additional clarity on Investment Tax Credit eligibility for storage systems.

New York

Governor Cuomo announced $40 million under the NY-Sun program to support storage deployment. NY PSC accepted environmental review of the state’s storage roadmap.

Nevada

NV Energy launched a storage incentive for both residential and non-residential systems.

California

The California Building Standards Commission issued new fire code regulations that greatly impact non- residential storage deployments. The GHG Working Group issued a report outlining proposals for the GHG signal under SGIP. CPUC denied a proposal for changes to metering requirements of NEM generating facilities with paired storage; it also approved 175 MW worth of storage contracts split between SCE and PG&E. Governor Brown signed SB 700 into law, which reauthorizes the Self-Generation Incentive Program through the end of 2025.

Arizona

APS announced its Storage Rewards program to support adoption of residential storage in its territory.

Colorado

Xcel Energy published its 2019/2020 Demand-Side Management Plan, which includes a residential storage demand response pilot.

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FERC 841 compliance requirements

The foundational elements of the order were designed to ensure a level playing field for storage

FERC order 841, required ISOs and RTOs to modify their participation rules to ensure energy storage is eligible to participate in all organized electricity markets. The new rules, with four key areas highlighted below, ensure that storage will be competing without a market handicap, as was identified by FERC. The requirements ranged from the relatively simple, such as requiring minimum size requirements lower at 100 kW than is common, to the complex, primarily designing or defending participation models for energy storage and ensure tariffs accommodate the technology directly while acknowledging the ways storage is different. ISOs generally adopt a “technology agnostic” approach, which they say underpins the foundation of their competitive markets by not giving any technology a leg up, but FERC rules that this approach, when applied too broadly to energy storage, does not take into account the technologies unique nature, and must be changed, at least in this one specific example.

Ensure that a resource using the participation model for electric storage resources in an RTO and ISO market is eligible to provide all capacity, energy and ancillary services that it is technically capable of providing Ensure that a resource using the participation model for electric storage resources can be dispatched and can set the wholesale market clearing price as both a wholesale seller and wholesale buyer consistent with rules that govern the conditions under which a resource can set the wholesale price. Account for the physical and

• perational characteristics of

electric storage resources through bidding parameters or

• ther means.

Establish a minimum size requirement for participation in ISO markets that does not exceed 100 kW. Also requires that the sale of electric energy from ISO markets to an electric storage resource that the resource then resells back to those markets must be at the wholesale locational marginal price.

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U.S. front-of-the-meter pipeline nearly doubles

CAISO and SPP interconnection queues drive the lion’s share of new speculative projects

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

U.S. front-of-the-meter energy storage pipeline market share, Q3 2015-Q3 2018 (%)

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

U.S. front-of-the-meter energy storage pipeline by market, Q3 2015-Q3 2018 (MW)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Total FTM pipeline share over time (% of MW)

Arizona California Colorado Hawaii Massachusetts Nevada New Jersey New York PJM (Exc. NJ) Texas All Others

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Total FTM energy storage pipeline (MW)

Arizona California Colorado Hawaii Massachusetts Nevada New Jersey New York PJM (Exc. NJ) Texas All Others

Outlook 4.

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Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

U.S. energy storage annual deployments will reach 3.9 GW by 2023

Utility procurements, changing tariffs and grid service opportunities all drive the market forward 215 338 3,856

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Energy storage deployments by segment (MW) Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter

U.S. energy storage annual deployment forecast, 2012-2023E (MW)

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430 686 11,746

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Energy storage deployments by segment (MWh) Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

U.S. market will reach nearly 12 GWh in annual deployments by 2023

4-hour systems becoming the norm for front-of-the-meter systems; average BTM durations inch toward 3 hours

U.S. energy storage annual deployment forecast, 2012-2023E (MWh)

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Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables. Note: Market size is reported as energy storage system deployment revenues (product of deployments and installed system prices).

U.S. energy storage will be a $4.5 billion market in 2023

Value set to double between 2018 and 2019 and then again from 2019 into 2020 $302 $474 $4,546 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Annual energy storage market size (million $) Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter

U.S. annual energy storage market size, 2012-2023E (million $)

Trends to watch for 2019 and beyond 5.

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Solar-plus-storage deployments driven by utilities in the front-of-the- meter space and incentives behind-the-meter 135 MW of FTM energy storage in

the US is solar-paired.

• 6 states (including Puerto Rico)

have more than 10 MW of solar- paired storage.

• 6 more have 1 MW or more.
• Eight states have more than 547

MW

• f

solar-paired storage contracted or under procurement

Solar-plus-storage’s reach is widening, but much of its value outside incentive states is contingent on the ITC

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables

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Where will the opportunity emerge for wind-plus-storage?

Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, installed wind data AWEA

Calif lifornia ia and Southwest – storage investment, but solar remains best pairing Texas – biggest

• pportunity,

but no clear business model Nort rtheast – storage mandates, clean peak, new

• ffshore

wind, large opportunity Midwest – excellent wind resource, few incentives for storage

AK 62 WA 3,072 OR 3,213 CA 5,686 NV 152 AZ 268 ID 973 MT 720 WY 1,489 UT 391 CO 3,106 NM 1,682 TX 22,799 OK 7,495 KS 5,110 NE 1,415 SD 977 ND 2,996 MN 3,699 IA 7,312 MO 959 AR LA MS AL GA FL SC NC 208 TN 29 KY VA IL 4,332 IN 2,117 OH 617 WV 686 PA 1,369 WI 746 MI 1,904 NY 1,829 VT 149 ME 923 NH 185 MA 113

RI 54 CT 5

NJ 9 DE 2 MD 191 HI 206 GU <1 PR 125

0 to 100MW > 100MW to 1,000MW > 1,000MW to 5,000MW > 5,000MW to 10,000MW > 10,000MW

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The new foundation for hybrid energy storage systems – recognizing value

True value for hybrid storage systems lies at the intersection of green policy and system needs

• As you move in either

direction, either towards valuing renewables, or valuing delivery during peak hours, storage’s value increases.

• As you move in both

directions, valuing renewables during certain hours, storage’s value increases exponentially.

• The clean peak standard, if it

becomes a model as capacity markets and the RPS did, could drive massive storage growth. National Energy Policy Act – 1992 Deregulating energy markets Example market – Texas Iowa launches the first Renewable Portfolio Standard - 1983 Example market – Hawaii (100%) Reliability Pricing Model – 2007 PJM capacity market acknowledges that availability during peak times matters Example market - Kentucky Massachusetts’s An Act to Advance Clean Energy – 2018 Example market – only Massachusetts (for now!) Competitive markets can help drive down costs Not all MWh are created equal… Keep it simple – secure MWh of energy Not all hours have the same need…

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Thank you for attending our webinar

Todd Olinsky-Paul Project Director, CESA todd@cleanegroup.org Find us online: www.cesa.org facebook.com/cleanenergystates @CESA_news on Twitter