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Independent Voters
Who are they, and what do they want?
Independent Voters Who are they, and what do they want? This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Independent Voters Who are they, and what do they want? This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Independent Voters Who are they, and what do they want? This presentation is different ty: 1990 Re giste r e d Vote r s by Par 60% 52% 41% 40% 20% 7% 0% 1990 Democrat Republican NMP Source: Florida Division of Elections The
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Re giste r e d Vote r s by Par ty: 1990
52% 41% 7%
0% 20% 40% 60%
1990
Democrat Republican NMP
Source: Florida Division of Elections SLIDE 5
The relative number of voters registered NMP has nearly quadrupled.
52% 38% 41% 35% 7% 27%
0% 20% 40% 60%
1990 June 2015
Democrat Republican NMP
Source: Florida Division of Elections SLIDE 6
Ne w Re giste r e d Vote r s by Par ty Sinc e 2012
30% 34% 46%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Democrats Republicans NMP
Source: Florida Division of Elections SLIDE 7
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23% 21% 56%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Democrats Republicans NMP - “Neither Major Party”
Source: Florida Division of ElectionsNet Registration by Party
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Democrat Republican NMP - “Neither Major Party”
Source: Florida Division of ElectionsCongress’ Approval Plummets Congress’ Approval Plummets Obama Campaign Obama Campaign 35% 38% 27% 41% 52% 7% Motor Voter Begins Motor Voter Begins
Registered Voters by Party: 1990 — Projected
Current Registration
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Who are they?
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Non- Voters 22% Older Protesters 45% Millenials 33%
Non-Voters Older Protesters Millenials
Source: Florida Voter File SLIDE 12
State wide Re gistr ation: Party bre akdo wn by Age NMP’s are much YOUNGER than partisans.
24% 18% 33% 21% 21% 25% 28% 29% 23% 27% 32% 19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Democrat Republican NMP
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Source: Florida Voter File SLIDE 13
State wide Re gistr ation: Party Bre akdo wn by Rac e NMP are whiter than Democrats, less white than Republicans… More ethnically diverse than either.
52% 85% 63% 28% 1% 8% 14% 11% 19% 5% 4% 10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Democrat Republican NMP
White African-American Hispanic Other
Source: Florida Voter File SLIDE 14
Whe r e do the y te nd to live ?
Source: Florida Division of ElectionsCOUNTY DEM REP NMP Total Broward 51.2% 22.3% 26.5% 100% Duval 42.1% 36.6% 21.3% 100% Hillsborough 40.2% 32.1% 27.7% 100% Miami-Dade 42.9% 28.2% 28.9% 100% Orange 42.1% 28.7% 29.2% 100% Palm Beach 43.6% 28.0% 28.4% 100% Pinellas 36.2% 35.6% 28.2% 100% NMPs are the second largest party in four of seven of these counties.
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What are their values?
SLIDE 16 Source: Clearview Research Statewide Polling
&
NMP Relatio nships to
Re public ans De mo c rats
- n So c ial and Po litic al issues
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State wide Poll Re sults:
“We ne e d le aders who wo n't c o mpro mise the ir value s”
11% 39% 19%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Democrats Republicans NMP’s
Source: Florida Division of Elections- De mo c rats - mo re like ly to want le ade rs who will
wo rk ac ro ss the aisle
- Re public ans - mo re like ly to be value s vo te rs
- NMPs - right in the middle
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What do they want?
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F avor ability Ratings of Diffe r e nt L e ve ls of Gove r nme nt
Source: Florida Statewide Polling Results33% 58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Overall
Favorable Unfavorable
Congress
- 25
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F avor ability Ratings of Diffe r e nt L e ve ls of Gove r nme nt
Source: Florida Statewide Polling Results26% 67%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% NMP’s
33% 58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Overall
Favorable Unfavorable
Congress
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F avor ability Ratings of Diffe r e nt L e ve ls of Gove r nme nt
Source: Florida Statewide Polling Results44% 42%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Overall
Favorable Unfavorable
FL Legislature
+2
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F avor ability Ratings of Diffe r e nt L e ve ls of Gove r nme nt
Source: Florida Statewide Polling Results44% 42%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Overall
Favorable Unfavorable
34% 45%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% NMP’s
FL Legislature
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+2
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F avor ability Ratings of Diffe r e nt L e ve ls of Gove r nme nt
Source: Florida Statewide Polling Results58% 24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Overall
Favorable Unfavorable
Local County Commission
+34
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F avor ability Ratings of Diffe r e nt L e ve ls of Gove r nme nt
Source: Florida Statewide Polling Results58% 24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Overall
Favorable Unfavorable
53% 24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% NMP’s
Local County Commission
+34 +29
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T he Unite d State s Congr e ss
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Inc umbe nt De fe at Rate
4%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Congress
Incumbent Defeat Rate
Source: Politifact, Florida Division of Elections, FL Association of Counties, FL School Board
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Inc umbe nt De fe at Rate
4% 6%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Congress FL Legislature
Incumbent Defeat Rate
Source: Politifact, Florida Division of Elections, FL Association of Counties, FL School Board
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Inc umbe nt De fe at Rate
4% 6% 19%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Congress FL Legislature County Comm.
Incumbent Defeat Rate
Source: Politifact, Florida Division of Elections, FL Association of Counties, FL School Board
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So? What do NMP’s want?
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So? What do NMP’s want?
- 1. T
he sc re aming to e nd.
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So? What do NMP’s want?
- 1. T
he sc re aming to e nd.
- 2. Go ve rnme nt to stay o ut o f no n-go ve rnme nt things.
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So? What do NMP’s want?
- 1. T
he sc re aming to e nd.
- 2. Go ve rnme nt to stay o ut o f no n-go ve rnme nt things.
- 3. Go ve rnme nt to wo rk.
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So? What do NMP’s want?
- 1. T
he sc re aming to e nd.
- 2. Go ve rnme nt to stay o ut o f no n-go ve rnme nt things.
- 3. Go ve rnme nt to wo rk.
- 4. T
he ability to vo te fo r o r against yo u.
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So? What do NMP’s want?
- 1. T
he sc re aming to e nd.
- 2. Go ve rnme nt to stay o ut o f no n-go ve rnme nt things.
- 3. Go ve rnme nt to wo rk.
- 4. T
he ability to vo te fo r o r against yo u.
- 5. YOU.
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Hey, I have a question! Hey, I have a question!