in the Asheville region? Jeff DeBellis Director or Economic & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
in the asheville region
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

in the Asheville region? Jeff DeBellis Director or Economic & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 03, 2024 103 likes •410 views

Are there any good jobs / workers in the Asheville region? Jeff DeBellis Director or Economic & Policy Analysis NC Department of Commerce Jeff.DeBellis@nccommerce.com How do you explain the disconnect where most employers contend they

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Are there any good jobs / workers in the Asheville region?

Jeff DeBellis

Director or Economic & Policy Analysis NC Department of Commerce Jeff.DeBellis@nccommerce.com

slide-2
SLIDE 2

“How do you explain the disconnect where most employers contend they have good jobs that they cannot fill while most individuals in the region contend there are few good jobs available locally.”

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Break Down the Problem

► What do employers want? Where are they having

difficulty?

► What do workers want? What is a “good job”? ► How is Asheville or Mountain Area WDB Region doing?

(Population, Employment, Jobs, Wages, & Wage Growth, etc.)

► Is there a growing Labor Mismatch in the Region? ► What can be done to grow wages & satisfy employers?

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Hiring Difficulties

What Do Employers Need from the Labor Force?

slide-5
SLIDE 5

North Carolina’s Skills Gap?

  • r

Job Mismatch?

► 4 in10 Employers

in NC claim some Hiring Difficulty

► Top 4 Areas of Difficulty (cited by at least 50% of employers)

► Work Experience ► Education/Credentials ► Technical Skills ► Soft Skills

► Low Pay acknowledged as factor by 30% of employers ► Slightly more difficultly in Construction & Manufacturing ► Slightly less difficulty in “STEM” and Healthcare

Source: NC Department of Commerce, 2016 Employer Needs Survey

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Good Jobs

What Does the Workforce Look for in a Job?

slide-7
SLIDE 7

► Pays relatively high earnings and—perhaps more

importantly—provides opportunities for increases in earnings over time

► Provides adequate fringe benefits, such as health

insurance and retirement benefits

► Enables the worker to have opportunities for autonomy

and control over work activities

► Gives the worker some flexibility and control over

scheduling and terms of employment

► Provides the worker with some control over termination

  • f the job

What is a “Good Job”?

Kalleberg, Arne, 2011. Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: The Rise of Polarized and Precarious Employment Systems in the United States, 1970s to 2000s.

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Mountain Area Economy

State of the Region in Employment and Jobs

(in 12 slides or less)

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Strong Population Growth

Led by Buncombe & Henderson Counties

2005-2014 2005-2025 Buncombe 15% 30% Henderson 14% 27% Madison 8% 16% Transylvania 9% 20%

15% North Carolina 28% 14% WDB 28% 11% Western Prosperity Zone 21%

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025

Source: NC Office of State Budget & Management

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Population is Aging and Getting Older

Source: NC Office of State Budget & Management

40.1 44.1 41.2 46.2 36.5

41.6 46.4 44.7 50.2 38.1

Buncombe Henderson Madison Transylvania North Carolina

2005 2014

#26 #13 #3 #54

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Unemployment Rate Consistently Lower than NC

Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

WDB 4.6% 8.9% 10.9% 10.3% 3.5% 4.7% North Carolina 5.7% Western Region 5.3%

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Low Unemployment Creates Tight Labor Market

Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Buncombe County, 4.3% Henderson County, 4.7% Madison County, 5.7% Transylvania County, 5.5%

2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Steady Job Growth in the Mountain Area WDB Region

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

  • 3.8%
  • 0.8%
  • 1.8%

WDB 9.0% North Carolina 7.9% Western Region 3.9%

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Regional Job Growth Driven by Buncombe County

Buncombe County 13.8% Henderson County

  • 1.3%

Madison County

  • 7.5%

Transylvania County

  • 1.5%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Henderson, Madison, & Transylvania still struggle Not to Pre-Recession levels

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Recent Wage Growth after Years of Decline

(Real Wages, adjusted for inflation)

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 North Carolina 6.8% WDB 2.6% Western Region 2.6%

2015 Wages Only 2.6% Higher than 2005

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Real Wage Growth Low in All Counties

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

No County within 50% of NC’s Real Wage Growth (6.8%) since 2005

Buncombe County 3.0% Henderson County 0.9% Madison County 3.1% Transylvania County

  • 1.6%
  • 9%
  • 7%
  • 5%
  • 3%
  • 1%

1% 3% 5% 7%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Health Care & Social Assistance 14.2% All Other 33.0% Retail Trade 11.8% Manufacturing 11.1% Accommodation & Food Services 9.5% Education 8.9% Construction 4.5% Admin, & Waste Mgmt Services 7.0% Accommodation & Food Services 13.0% Education 7.5% All Other 25.7% Health Care & Social Assistance 19.4% Admin, & Waste Mgmt Services 5.9% Manufacturing 10.5% Retail Trade 13.6%

Composition of Industries Matter, 2015

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

WDB Employment Mix NC Employment Mix

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Health Care & Social Assistance 14.2% All Other 33.0% Retail Trade 11.8% Manufacturing 11.1% Accommodation & Food Services 9.5% Education 8.9% Construction 4.5% Admin, & Waste Mgmt Services 7.0%

If the WDB Mix Matched NC’s Composition…

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

$118 Million More in Total Wages

For the Mountain Area

1.8% Above 2015’s Actual Total

WDB Employment Mix w/ NC Composition

slide-19
SLIDE 19

► Average wage vs. NC average is -$8,000 or 17% lower ► 16 out of 20 Industries are at least -10% lower than the NC average ► Across the top 5 paying industries in NC, the average wage for the

Mountain Area is 30% lower

► Healthcare is a regional strength. Wages are $3,000 higher or

7% above the NC average

Wages within Industries Matter, 2015

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Wage Discrepancies Greatest in “High-Tech” Industries

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, “high tech” as defined by the National Institute of Standards & Technology

$90,685 $58,332 $44,723 $39,019 NC WDB High Tech wages are 103% higher High Tech wages are 49% higher WDB High Tech wage gap

  • 36%

High Tech Non- High Tech High Tech Non- High Tech

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Why Are Wages So Low Among Highest Paying Industries?

Compared to NC, 2015

► Percent of employees with a Bachelor’s degree is below

the state average across Region’s top-paying industries

% Employed with Bachelor's WDB NC Variance

19% 28%

  • 9%

29% 35%

  • 6%

34% 38%

  • 4%

32% 36%

  • 4%

16% 17%

  • 1%

Industries

Management of Companies Information Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, & Tech Srvs Manufacturing

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Why Are Wages So Low Among Highest Paying Industries?

Compared to NC, 2015

► Smaller proportion of Mountain Area employment at

mid- or large-size business

% Employment @ Establishments > 50 Employees WDB NC Variance

0% 84%

  • 84%

26% 66%

  • 40%

0% 55%

  • 55%

14% 42%

  • 28%

76% 82%

  • 6%

Industries

Management of Companies Information Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, & Tech Srvs Manufacturing

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Asheville’s Growing Labor Mismatch?

The data says…

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Mountain Area WDB North Carolina

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mountain Area Labor Supply / Demand

# Unemployed per # Job Vacancies

Source: Commerce LEAD calculations using LAUS, JOLTS, & Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online

Tight Market Low # Unemployed per Available Jobs Slack Market High # Unemployed per Available Jobs

slide-25
SLIDE 25

In North Carolina

Increases in Non-Routine Jobs Declines in Routine Jobs

Non-Routine Cognitive Non-Routine Manual Routine Cognitive Routine Manual

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

jobs in thousands

Source: BLS, Current Population Survey

slide-26
SLIDE 26

What We Know

Mountain Area Labor Market

► Labor Surplus in Routine Manual jobs

► More labor supply than demand for workers

► Inconclusive Evidence Regional Occupational Mismatch

is Better / Worse than NC

► Tight Labor Market – compared to Pre-Recession & NC

► Fewer unemployed per labor force & job openings ► Harder for employers to find workers at expected wage

► More Workers are Unable to Find Desired Jobs

in their Home County

► Greater reliance on urban employment centers ► Expansion of labor market geographies

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Can We Grow Wages & Make Employers Happy?

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Incent Competition in High-Pay Industries

► Expand workforce education & skills in high-pay industries

► Expands business productivity, output, & employment growth

► Attract & Grow new businesses in high-pay industries

► Increased competition for labor adds wage pressure

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Questions?

Jeff DeBellis

Jeff.DeBellis@nccommerce.com