in India; And Their Opinions About the U.S. and Trump Bruce Stokes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Indian Views on Modi, Conditions in India; And Their Opinions About the U.S. and Trump

Bruce Stokes

Director, Global Economic Attitudes India, November, 2017

November 16, 2017

2

Pew Research Center

• Established 1996
• Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations
• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
• Research topics:

U.S. politics Media and the news Social trends Religion Internet and technology Science Hispanics Global public opinion and migration

• www.pewresearch.org

3

Methodology

• In India, survey conducted from February 21 to March 10, 2017 among

2,464 respondents

• Based on face-to-face interviews among adults 18 and older (conducted in

the Union Territory of Delhi and in 16 of the 18 most populous states, Kerala and Assam excluded)

• The margin of sampling error for the completed set of weighted data is

±3.7%

KEY TAKEA KEAWAYS

• Sept. 18, 2015

www.pewresearch.org

4

Indians Increasingly Upbeat About Modi, the Economy and India’s Direction

November 16, 2017

5

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Indians Widely Satisfied With Their Government and Their Democracy

November 16, 2017

6

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

__ the national government to do what is right for India

11% 85% Trust Do not trust 11 79 Satisfied Not satisfied

__ with the way democracy is working in India

But U.S. Image, Confidence in American President Lower Than in Previous Years

November 16, 2017

7

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

56 55 70 56 49 53 48 74 58 40

100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Favorable view

• f U.S.

Confidence in the U.S. president % Obama Trump Modi takes office as Prime Minister

IT’S THE ECONOMY

• Sept. 18, 2015

www.pewresearch.org

8

Indians Feel Very Positive About Life Today Compared With 50 Years Ago

November 16, 2017

9

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Would you say life in India today is better, worse or about the same as it was 50 years ago for people like you?

69% 7% 7% 17%

Don't know Better Worse About the same

A Strong Majority Is Satisfied With India’s Direction

November 16, 2017

10

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

__ with the way things are going in our country today

29 36 56 65 70 70 60 43 33 27

100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied %

November 16, 2017

11

12% 12 12 10 12 16 7 16 12 12 13 83% 85 81 83 84 80 87 76 81 86 87 TOTAL Men Women 18-29 30-49 50+ BJP INC Primary school or less Secondary school Some college or more

Good Bad

No Disagreement About India’s Economic Situation

How would you describe the current economic situation in India?

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

November 16, 2017

12

Similarly, All Indians Think Children Will Be Better Off Financially Than Their Parents

12% 12 12 12 12 11 13 11 12 13 11 76% 78 74 75 77 76 75 73 74 79 80 TOTAL Men Women 18-29 30-49 50+ BJP INC Primary school or less Secondary school Some college or more

Better off Worse off

When children today in India grow up, they will be __ financially than their parents

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Nevertheless, Indians See Problems: Crime Is a Top Domestic Challenge

November 16, 2017

13

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

__ is a very big problem in India 84% 76 74 73 71 62 61 59 54 54 48 45 37 Lack of availability of cash for daily transactions Corrupt officials Terrorism Lack of employment

• pportunities

Corrupt businesspeople Gap between the rich and poor Crime Communal relations The situation in Kashmir Rising prices Air pollution Health care Poor quality schools

And the Intensity of Indian Support for Institutions Varies Widely

November 16, 2017

14

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

The influence __ is having on the way things are going in our country today is …

62% 54 39 36 29 28 20 20 24% 32 37 32 38 38 36 33 86% 86 76 68 67 66 56 53 Military Media Court system Human rights

• rganizations

Police Corporations Religious leaders

Very good Somewhat good

National government

Total

Moreover, Half or More Back Rule by a Strongman, the Military

November 16, 2017

15

Full question wordings for political systems: Representative democracy, “A democratic system where representatives elected by citizens decide what becomes law”; Direct democracy, “A democratic system where citizens, not elected officials, vote directly on major national issues to decide what becomes law”; Rule by experts, “Experts, not elected officials, make decisions according to what they think is best for the country”; Rule by a strong leader, “A system in which a strong leader can make decisions without interference from parliament or the courts”; Rule by the military, “The military rules the country.” Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Would __ be a good or bad way of governing India?

8% 8 14 28 28 76% 75 65 55 53

Good Bad

Direct democracy Representative democracy Rule by a strong leader Rule by experts Rule by the military

November 16, 2017

16

With BJP Supporters More Likely than Congress Supporters to Back Strong Man and Military Rule

Representative democracy Direct democracy Rule by Experts Rule by a strong leader Rule by the military % % % % % BJP 75 78 64 56 54 INC 63 59 42 36 36

Note: INC supporters more likely to offer no response to these questions. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Would __ be a good way of governing our country

MODI REMAIN AINS S VERY POPUL ULAR AR

• Sept. 18, 2015

www.pewresearch.org

17

Modi and BJP More Popular Than the Gandhis and the Congress Party

November 16, 2017

18

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Views of … 10% 35 36 40 88% 58 57 39 Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi Arvind Kejriwal

Favorable Unfavorable

12% 34 42 84% 59 34 BJP INC AAP

Favorable Unfavorable

November 16, 2017

19

Men, Women, People of All Ages and Educational Levels Have Favorable Opinion of Modi

10% 10 10 9 8 15 2 33 12 7 5 88% 89 86 89 90 82 97 65 85 92 94 TOTAL Men Women 18-29 30-49 50+ BJP INC Primary school or less Secondary school Some college or more

Favorable Unfavorable

Views of Narendra Modi

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

But There is a Deep Partisan Divide in Views of Prime Minister Modi

November 16, 2017

20

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

And Differing Assessments of Modi’s Handling of Domestic Issues

November 16, 2017

21

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Approve of the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi is handling … Unemployment Terrorism Corruption Helping the poor Communal relations Air pollution Rising prices The situation in Kashmir

% % % % % % % % TOTAL 72 71 70 72 50 48 57 60 Men 76 76 73 75 56 52 62 64 Women 68 65 67 68 43 44 52 55 18-29 72 71 69 72 52 49 57 64 30-49 74 73 73 76 50 47 59 61 50+ 68 65 66 64 46 48 53 51 Urban 78 79 80 77 56 57 63 64 Rural 68 66 64 69 46 43 54 57 BJP 81 78 78 81 55 52 62 65 INC 46 51 45 48 29 21 35 40

Indians Approve of Modi’s Dealings With the U.S., but Are Not Supportive of His Handling of Pakistan

November 16, 2017

22

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Do you __ of the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi is handling relations with …

9% 14 30 42 55% 46 33 21 U.S. Russia China Pakistan

Approve Disapprove

HOW INDIAN ANS S VIEW THE WORLD LD

• Sept. 18, 2015

www.pewresearch.org

23

Indians Name ISIS as Top Global Threat

November 16, 2017

24

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

__ is a major threat to India

66% 47 44 43 35 34 19 17 U.S. power and influence Global climate change The Islamic militant group known as ISIS China's power and influence Cyberattacks from other countries Russia's power and influence The condition of the global economy Large number of refugees leaving countries such as Iraq and Syria

Indians Hold Mixed Views of Other Countries

November 16, 2017

25

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Views of …

9% 13 15 41 72 49% 47 42 26 10 U.S. Russia Japan China Pakistan

Favorable Unfavorable

Nevertheless, Many Indians Say Trump Is Strong and Qualified

November 16, 2017

26

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

% saying they think of Donald Trump as …

42% 41 28 28 26 22 17 14% 15 25 25 25 29 32 44% 44 47 47 49 49 51

A strong leader Well-qualified to be president Dangerous Caring about ordinary people Arrogant Charismatic Intolerant Yes No Don't know

Indian Views of U.S. More Positive Than Their Views of China

November 16, 2017

27

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

49% 42 42 40

Confident in Trump Favorable view

• f U.S.

U.S. govt. respects personal freedoms U.S. is the world's leading economic power

26% 25 21

Confident in Xi Favorable view

• f China

China's govt. respects personal freedoms China is the world's leading economic power

11

Indians See China’s Growing Strength as a Bad Thing

November 16, 2017

28

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

Overall do you think that China’s growing __ is a good or bad thing for India?

56% 51 16% 20 Military power Economy

Good thing Bad thing

Uptick in Very Unfavorable Indian Views of Pakistan

November 16, 2017

29

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

20 40 60 80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable

% Views of Pakistan

Indians Favor Hard-Line Stance in Jammu and Kashmir

November 16, 2017

30

Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.

In dealing with the situation in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian government should use __ military force than it is using now

63% 11% 8%

More About the same Less

November 16, 2017

31

All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org

Bruce Stokes

Director, Global Economic Attitudes

bstokes@pewresearch.org @bruceestokes