ICES Widely (1 Oct. 2010) Advisory Drafting Group (ADG) - - PDF document

ICES Widely Distributed Stocks Advice

Reidar Toresen ACOM Member Pelagic RAC – London, 11 October 2010

Review Group (RG)

Review the work carried out by the EG; quality assurance & peer review (scientists independent of the EG)

Advisory Drafting Group (ADG)

Draft the advice, based on the peer reviewed assessments (scientists & reviewers)

Advisory Committee (ACOM)

Approve draft advice; consistency assurance (1 scientist from each of the 20 ICES member countries + chair & 4 vice-chair)

WGWIDE RGWIDE ADGWIDE 15-17 Sept. 2010

WCWIDE

(30 Sep. 2010)

Advice

Release

(1 Oct. 2010)

Advisory Process Advisory Process

MSY Btrigger is a biomass reference point that triggers a cautious response: “A cautious biomass triggering action to maintain a stock within a desirable stock size range” FMSY is the fishing mortality that in the long- term will maximize yield Based on an FMSY and a biomass safeguard against low spawning stock biomass

ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework ICES MSY Harvest Control Rule (HCR)

SSB F advice MSY Btrigger

FMSY

SSB x FMSY/MSY Btrigger

ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework MSY Transition

Moving from Current F to MSY in 2015 in 5 steps.

Ftransition (2011) =

(0.8 • F (2010)) + (0.2 • FMSY-HCR(2011)) But no higher than Fpa

ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework MSY Transition ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework

FMSY-HCR-transition values are capped at Fpa to maintain consistency with the PA However, …. Transition to MSY takes into account the general understanding that managers want a gradual transition

MSY Transition – September updates ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework

….there may be situations where a gradual transition is not appropriate because the stock is at a low level (e.g., below Blim) and the outlook is for a further decline (e.g., as a result of recruitment failure) unless fishing mortality is reduced more rapidly. In such cases, ICES may advise on a more rapid transition or application of FMSY-HCR as soon as possible.

Advice summary table

Management Objective (s) Landings (2011)

• Transition to an MSY approach

with caution at low stock size Less than XX T

• Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment

(Precautionary Approach) Less than X T

• Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and

achieve other objective(s) of a management plan (e.g., catch stability) Y t

Norwegian spring-spawning herring ICES Widely Distributed Stocks Advice Horse mackerel (Western stock) Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic Blue whiting (Combined stock) Horse mackerel (Southern stock) Horse mackerel (North Sea) Latest advice available: http://www.ices.dk/advice/icesadvice.asp Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Management Objective (s) Landings in 2011 MSY approach with caution at low stock size Less than 1.17 million tonnes Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment (Precautionary Approach) Less than 1.17 million tonnes Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and achieve other objective(s) of a management plan (e.g., catch stability) Less than 0.988 million tonnes

Norwegian spring-spawning herring F 2007 2008 2009 FMSY below at FMSY at FMSY FPA/Flim below at Fpa at Fpa SSB 2008 2009 2010 MSY Btrigger above above above BPA/Blim above above above

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 SSB in 1000 t Fishing Mortality (ages 5-14)

2009

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

500 1000 1500 2000 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 F weighted (ages 5-14)

Fishing Mortality

Fpa FMSY 100 200 300 400 500 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 0)

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 5-14 100 200 300 400 500 600 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

• Recruitment. Age: 0

Norwegian spring-spawning herring

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 F weighted (ages 5-14)

Fishing Mortality

Fpa FMSY 200 400 600 800 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 0)

5000 10000 15000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

Blue whiting (Combined stock)

Blue whiting (Combined stock)

Blue whiting (Combined stock) Management Objective (s) Landings in 2011 Transition to an MSY approach with caution at low stock size 50 700 to 223 000 for transition to the MSY framework by 2011 and 2015, respectively Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment (Precautionary Approach) Zero landings Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and achieve other

• bjective(s) of a management plan

(e.g., catch stability) 40 100 tonnes For the advice related to the transition to an MSY approach, the lower end of the range reflects concerns with the current status

• f the stock and indications of recruitment failure.

Blue whiting (Combined stock)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 SSB in 1000 t Fishing Mortality (ages 3-7)

2009

F 2007 2008 2009 FMSY

Above Above Above

FPA/Flim

Between Between Between

SSB

2008 2009 2010

MSY Btrigger

Above Below Below

BPA/Blim

Above Between Below

Blue whiting (Combined stock)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 1)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 F(ages 3-7)

Fishing Mortality

Flim Fpa FMSY 2000 4000 6000 8000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

Blue whiting (Combined stock)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 3-7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

• Recruitment. Age: 1

Blue whiting (Combined stock)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 mean F 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2000 4000 6000 8000 SSB (1000 t) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20000 40000 60000 Recruitment (10^6)

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic

Management Objective (s) Total catch in 2011 Transition to an MSY approach with caution at low stock size Less than 672 000 tonnes Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment (Precautionary Approach) Less than 672 000 tonnes Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and achieve other objective(s) of a management plan (e.g., catch stability) Between 592 000 and 646 000 tonnes

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic

ICES advises that the existing measures to protect the North Sea spawning component should remain in place. These are: There should be no fishing for mackerel in Divisions IIIa and IVb,c at any time of the year; There should be no fishing for mackerel in Division IVa during the period 15 February–31 July; The 30 cm minimum landing size at present in force in Subarea IV should be maintained.

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic F 2007 2008 2009 FMSY Above Above Above FPA Above Above At Fpa SSB 2008 2009 2010 MSY Btrigger Above Above Above BPA Above Above Above

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 SSB in 1000 t Fishing Mortality (ages 4-8)

2009

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic

200 400 600 800 1000 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 F(ages 4-8)

Fishing Mortality

Flim Fpa FMSY 2 4 6 8 10 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 0)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 4-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

• Recruitment. Age: 0

Horse mackerel (Western stock)

Horse mackerel (Western stock)

Horse mackerel (Western stock)

Management Objective (s) Landings in 2011 MSY approach with caution at low stock size Less than 229 000 tonnes Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment (Precautionary Approach) na Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and achieve other objective(s) of a management plan (e.g., catch stability) 181 000 tonnes

Horse mackerel (Western stock)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 SSB in 1000 t Fishing Mortality (ages 1-10)

2009

F 2007 2008 2009 FMSY

Below Below Below

FPA/Flim

Undefined Undefined Undefined

SSB

2008 2009 2010

MSY Btrigger

Undefined Undefined Undefined

BPA/Blim

Undefined Undefined Undefined

Horse mackerel (Western stock)

100 200 300 400 500 600 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 F(ages 1-10)

Fishing Mortality

FMSY 20 40 60 80 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 0)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

Horse mackerel (Western stock)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 4-8 5 10 15 20 25 30 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

• Recruitment. Age: 0

Horse mackerel (Southern stock)

Horse mackerel (Southern stock)

Horse mackerel (Southern stock)

Management Objective (s) Landings in 2011 Transition to an MSY approach with caution at low stock size na Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment (Precautionary Approach) Less than 25 000 tonnes Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and achieve other objective(s) of a management plan (e.g., catch stability) na

Horse mackerel (Southern stock)

The status of the stocks is unknown. No Reference points are defined for this stock. Landings SSB index

Horse mackerel (North Sea)

Horse mackerel (North Sea)

Horse mackerel (North Sea)

The state of the stock is unknown and there is no basis for an advice.

Western Baltic spring-spawning herring ICES North Sea Stocks Advice June advice revised in September: http://www.ices.dk/advice/icesadvice27SEP2010.asp Western Baltic spring spawning herring

MSY Transition Error in the transition calculation June

• No change in stock assessment
• No change in forecast results

Only change F target for the MSY Transition

Western Baltic spring spawning herring

MSY Transition Calculation June Correct calculation September

Ftransition (2011) = (0.8 • F (2010)) + (0.2•(FMSY•SSB2011/Btrigger) Ftransition (2011) = ((0.8•F (2010)) + (0.2•FMSY))•SSB2011/Btrigger

Western Baltic spring spawning herring

Herring in IIIa and IV (Western Baltic spring spawners)

Western Baltic spring spawning herring

Advice in June

Management Objective (s) Catches in 2011 Transition to an MSY approach with caution at low stock size

Less than 39 500 t

Additional conservation measure: catches of WBSS herring in the should not be allowed to increase Precautionary Approach n/a Management plan n/a

Advice for 2011

Western Baltic spring spawning herring

Advice in September

Management Objective (s) Catches in 2011 Transition to an MSY approach with caution at low stock size

26 500 t to 53 600 t for transition to the MSY framework by 2011 to 2015, respectively.

Additional conservation measure: catches of WBSS herring in the should not be allowed to increase Precautionary Approach n/a Management plan n/a

Advice for 2011

Western Baltic spring spawning herring Fishing mortality

2007 2008

2009 FMSY

above above above

FPA/Flim

undefined undefined undefined

Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB)

2007 2008

2009 MSY Btrigger

above above below

BPA/Blim

undefined undefined undefined

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 SSB in 1000 t Fishing Mortality (ages 3-6) 2009

No change from June

Western Baltic spring spawning herring

50 100 150 200 250 1991 1996 2001 2006 Landings in 1000 t

Landings

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1991 1996 2001 2006 F(ages 3-6)

Fishing Mortality

FMSY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1991 1996 2001 2006 Recruitment in billions

Recruitment (age 0)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1991 1996 2001 2006 SSB in 1000 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

MSYBtrigger

No change from June

Western Baltic spring spawning herring

No change from June

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1995 2000 2005 2010 SSB ('000 tonnes) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fishing mortality: 3-6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions

• Recruitment. Age: 0

Thank you for your attention! Comments and questions?