Hydrogen and Other Energy Carriers in Low-Carbon Pathways MITEI Spring Sergey Paltsev Symposium Massachusetts Institute of Cambridge, MA Technology June 3, 2019
Hydrogen Reasons Potential to provide energy in all parts of economy: industry, transportation, residential. Potential for remote communities (with no access to grid). Can be stored in many forms: gas, liquid, solid. Can be made from various sources. Zero emissions of carbon during operation, but only as clean as the technology used to produce it. Clean if produced by: Electrolysis using renewables or nuclear Steam reforming with carbon capture and storage Based on renewable biomass 2 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Hydrogen Challenges Expand from the current applications (primarily as a chemical feedstock) to other sectors. Need for integrated solutions to benefit from economies of scale. Policy support (low-carbon, hydrogen-targeted). Safety (real and perceived issues: Hindenburg and hydrogen bomb). Cost, infrastructure, and safety 3 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Issue: Scaling Up Low-Carbon Options Source: Hydrogen Council 4 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Rising GHG emissions in no-policy scenarios Based on AR5 WGIII Figure TS.17 5 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Mitigation requires dramatic changes Based on AR5 WGIII Figure TS.17 6 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
No negative emission technologies in power sector imply more effort in other sectors Based on AR5 WGIII Figure TS.17 7 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Different modeling groups - no dominant technology for de- carbonization Note: Primary Energy Supply in 2015 – 550 EJ, 2050 - 700 EJ Based on AR5 WGIII Figure 7.11 8 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Illustrative Scenarios: Global Electricity Mix in 2 ° C Dramatic increase No BECCS in wind and solar by mid-century Renewables: Wind&Solar Gas CCS After 2030 Coal CCS After 2050 Coal CCS Coal CCS and Gas CCS BECCS deployment 70000 BECCS is driven by carbon 60000 BECCS allowance revenue 50000 40000 TWh Total electricity use 30000 by 2100 is higher Gas CCS 20000 with BECCS 10000 Coal CCS 0 Based on MIT EPPA model results Coal CoalCCS Oil Gas GasCCS Nuclear Hydro Wind&Solar Bio 9 http:// globalchange.mit.edu /
Issue: Scaling Up Low-Carbon Options 10 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Major energy companies (Shell, BP, Total…) realize the need for a different energy mix Shell Sky Scenario: Drastic changes in GHG emissions (GtCO 2 /year) Temperature Implications of Sky are analyzed by MIT Joint Program (MIT JP Report 330) https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication /16995 11 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Hydrogen in Major Energy Outlooks Shell Sky Scenario (up to 2100) 2033 – hydrogen production cost is $1/kg (from $4/kg in 2017) 2048 – hydrogen-based commercial flights Hydrogen in Total Global Final Consumption 2050 – 1.5%, 2100 – 10.5% (in comparison to 2015: the 2100 number is 50% of 2015 liquid hydrocarbon fuels). BP Energy Outlook (up to 2040) 2040 – half of global sales of new trucks and buses are electric or hydrogen-powered. Only 2/3 of final energy use has the technical potential to be electrified. Hence 1/3 of energy will come from hydrogen, bioenergy, or coal/gas/oil with CCS. 12 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Hydrogen in Major Energy Outlooks IEA World Energy Outlook (up to 2040) Up to 20% of hydrogen could be injected (current blending limits are much lower) into the EU natural gas networks (it would reduce EU CO 2 emissions by 7%). IEA: Current H 2 costs electrolysis- $4-6/kg, SMR – from $1-2/kg. MCH – methyl- cyclohexane 13 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
IEA Case study – 2040 production in Australia and transport to Japan (off-grid electrolyser in Japan in 2040 - $5/kg) 14 http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Thank you Questions or comments? Please contact Sergey Paltsev at paltsev@mit.edu 15
Recommend
More recommend
