Hydrogen and Other Energy Carriers in Low-Carbon Pathways MITEI - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sergey Paltsev Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Hydrogen and Other Energy Carriers in Low-Carbon Pathways

Cambridge, MA June 3, 2019

MITEI Spring Symposium

http://globalchange.mit.edu/

Hydrogen Reasons

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Potential to provide energy in all parts of economy: industry, transportation, residential. Potential for remote communities (with no access to grid). Can be stored in many forms: gas, liquid, solid. Can be made from various sources. Zero emissions of carbon during operation, but only as clean as the technology used to produce it. Clean if produced by: Electrolysis using renewables or nuclear Steam reforming with carbon capture and storage Based on renewable biomass

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Hydrogen Challenges

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Expand from the current applications (primarily as a chemical feedstock) to other sectors. Need for integrated solutions to benefit from economies of scale. Policy support (low-carbon, hydrogen-targeted). Safety (real and perceived issues: Hindenburg and hydrogen bomb). Cost, infrastructure, and safety

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Issue: Scaling Up Low-Carbon Options

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Source: Hydrogen Council

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Rising GHG emissions in no-policy scenarios

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Based on AR5 WGIII Figure TS.17

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Mitigation requires dramatic changes

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Based on AR5 WGIII Figure TS.17

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No negative emission technologies in power sector imply more effort in other sectors

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Based on AR5 WGIII Figure TS.17

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Different modeling groups - no dominant technology for de- carbonization

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Based on AR5 WGIII Figure 7.11 Note: Primary Energy Supply in 2015 – 550 EJ, 2050 - 700 EJ

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Illustrative Scenarios: Global Electricity Mix in 2°C

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 TWh Coal CoalCCS Oil Gas GasCCS Nuclear Hydro Wind&Solar Bio

BECCS No BECCS

Based on MIT EPPA model results

Dramatic increase in wind and solar by mid-century After 2030 Coal CCS After 2050 Coal CCS and Gas CCS BECCS deployment is driven by carbon allowance revenue Total electricity use by 2100 is higher with BECCS Coal CCS Gas CCS Coal CCS Gas CCS BECCS Renewables: Wind&Solar

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Issue: Scaling Up Low-Carbon Options

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http://globalchange.mit.edu/

Major energy companies (Shell, BP, Total…) realize the need for a different energy mix

11 Shell Sky Scenario: Drastic changes in GHG emissions (GtCO2/year) Temperature Implications of Sky are analyzed by MIT Joint Program (MIT JP Report 330)

https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication /16995

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Hydrogen in Major Energy Outlooks

Shell Sky Scenario (up to 2100) 2033 – hydrogen production cost is $1/kg (from $4/kg in 2017) 2048 – hydrogen-based commercial flights Hydrogen in Total Global Final Consumption 2050 – 1.5%, 2100 – 10.5% (in comparison to 2015: the 2100 number is 50% of 2015 liquid hydrocarbon fuels). BP Energy Outlook (up to 2040) 2040 – half of global sales of new trucks and buses are electric

• r

hydrogen-powered. Only 2/3 of final energy use has the technical potential to be

• electrified. Hence 1/3 of energy will come from hydrogen,

bioenergy,

• r coal/gas/oil with CCS.

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http://globalchange.mit.edu/

Hydrogen in Major Energy Outlooks

IEA World Energy Outlook (up to 2040) Up to 20% of hydrogen could be injected (current blending limits are much lower) into the EU natural gas networks (it would reduce EU CO2 emissions by 7%).

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IEA: Current H2 costs electrolysis- $4-6/kg, SMR – from $1-2/kg. MCH – methyl- cyclohexane

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IEA Case study – 2040 production in Australia and transport to Japan (off-grid electrolyser in Japan in 2040 - $5/kg)

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Thank you

Questions or comments? Please contact Sergey Paltsev at paltsev@mit.edu

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