CSD-15 Learning Centre Course 30 April 2007, UN Headquarters, New York How to align actions to address climate change limate change How to align actions to address c with national sustainable national sustainable development development goals? goals? with P.R. Shukla P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Agenda Developing Country Dynamics • − Scenarios: Transitions of Goals, Institutions, Demographics, Incomes, Preferences − Modeling: Co-benefits, Lock-ins, Endogenous and exogenous environment − Policy analysis: Balancing Equity, Efficiency and Sustainability Some Illustrations (from India) • − Aligning Energy Security and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals − Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia − Sustainable Development and Adapting Long-life Assets to Climate Risks Modeling Climate Stabilization Induced Development Paths • Modeling Transition to Low Carbon Future through Sustainable Development • Conclusions • How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Developing Country Dynamics What make developing countries different? – Different stage of development: priorities and capabilities – Different economic dynamics than assumed in scenario assessments – Need and opportunities to align climate and development agenda How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Understanding development • Dual Economy • Multiple Transitions • Informal Activities • Subsistence Production • Market Performance and Disequilibria • Non-commercial Fuels • Non-economic Concerns • Policy Distortions How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Transitions Socio-Economic � Demographic Population ⎯ Urban / Rural ⎯ Gender ratio ⎯ Migration ⎯ � Development Soft indicators: Income, Equity, Literacy, Health ⎯ Hard indicators: Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances ⎯ � Political Institutions ⎯ Laws ⎯ Policies ⎯ How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Demographic Transitions in India: Age/Gender Profile Population in 1970 Population Projection for 2010 100+ 95-99 100+ 90-95 95-99 85-89 90-95 80-84 85-89 75-79 80-84 70-74 75-79 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 Female 60-64 Age group 55-59 Male 55-59 Age group 50-54 50-54 Female 45-49 Male 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Population (million) Population (million) Population Projection for 2030 Population Projection for 2050 100+ 100+ 95-99 95-99 90-95 90-95 85-89 85-89 80-84 80-84 Female 75-79 75-79 Male 70-74 70-74 Female 65-69 65-69 Male 60-64 60-64 55-59 Age group 55-59 Age group 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Population (million) Population (million) How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Demographic Transitions in India: Urban/Rural Urban & Rural population of India (Medium Variant) Rural 90 Urban 80 70 60 50 % S h a r e 40 30 20 10 0 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 Year How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Composition of India's GDP by Sector 1950 - 51 1980 - 81 2003 - 04 Agriculture Services 24% Services 28% Agriculture 37% Agriculture Services 59% 41% 51% Industry Industry 13% 25% Industry 22% 22% Data Source: CMIE and Economic Surveys of India How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Shift in electricity demand and generation Traction 3% Others 5% Commercial 6% Traction Others 3% 4% Commercial 6% Industry Demand Domestic 35% Domestic 11% 22% Industry Agri 59% 17% Agri 29% 1980 78 TWH 2000 313 TWH Nuclear Gas- 3% Thermal 11% Oil- Thermal Gas Thermal Nuclear 3% Generation 0.04% 4% Oil Thermal Hydro 0.02 % 13% Coal Coal- Hydro Thermal Thermal 45% 51% 70% 1971 61 TWH 2001 558 TWH How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Past Energy transitions: Global & India 80% India 60% Percentage of PEC Non-commercial energy supply 40% Coal & LIgnite Oil 20% 100 Global Nuclear 90 Gas Traditional 80 Hydro 0% renewables 1 953-54 1 960-61 1 970-71 1 980-81 1 990-91 2001 -02 Percentage of PEC 70 Coal 60 50 40 Oil 30 Coal Gas 20 10 Hydro Nuclear 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Changing Structure of Energy Use 80% Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption How to transit to Modern Biomass? 60% Food Security? Traditional Biomass 40% Domestic Resource: +ve Coal Direct Employment: +ve Energy Security: -ve Oil 20% Foreign Exchange: -ve En. Security: +Ve Fuel Supply? Geopolitical Risk: High Nuclear Waste disposal? Gas Foreign Exchange: -ve Safety? Hydro 0% Regional water disputes? 1952 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 Indirect Benefits How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Transitions Demand-side Opportunities � Efficient Appliances � Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport) � Advance Technologies - Fuel-cell - Hydrogen economy - Bio-engineering How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Transition in Household Energy Use in India: Fuel-wood to LPG 1.8 25 1.6 Population 20 1.4 LPG consumption in India Index: 1981=1 Index:1981=1 1.2 15 Fuel-wood 1 production 10 5 0 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 80 70 % Household LPG penetration in India 60 50 Urban % 40 30 20 Rural Data Sources - Census 2001, NSS 1994, 2000 10 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Environmental Transitions � Awareness - Pressure groups � Income-effects - E.g. Kuznets phenomenon � Laws and Regulations - Global agreements - National policies � Technology - Zero-effluent Processes - Recycling How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Consumption/Life-style Transitions � Conservation - Substitutions - Recycling � City Planning � Architecture/ Building Codes � Changing Preferences � Income Effects How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Backbone Technology Transitions � Logistics - Pipelines � Electricity T&D - Decentralized utilities � Information - Wireless � Nanotechnology � New and Renewable Energy - Hydrogen How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Path Dependence: Lock-ins vs. Innovations • Elasticity of long-term paths to short-term influences • Lock-ins from current technology supply • SRES Scenarios and Technology paths • Development policies and path dependence IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios Decarbonization of Primary Energy: History 30 A2 China 1000 25 ?? India 20 kgC/toe 2 (GtC ) 800 A1 15 USA CO B2 10 WRE550 600 Japan 5 B1 France 400 0 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Year How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Emerging drivers of technological change International Labor market • Wage differential • Income gaps • Migration Human Capital Knowledge flows • Diasporas and social networks • Shifting comparative advantage in knowledge services • Role of local and contextual knowledge • Governance, risks and investment flows How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
Modeling Developing Country Dynamics (Some illustrations from India) − Aligning Technology Transitions with Climate Goals − Conjoint Market for CO 2 and SO 2 Emissions − Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?
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