How to align actions to address climate change limate change How to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

CSD-15 Learning Centre Course 30 April 2007, UN Headquarters, New York

How to align actions to address c How to align actions to address climate change limate change with with national sustainable national sustainable development development goals? goals?

P.R. Shukla P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Agenda

• Developing Country Dynamics

− Scenarios: Transitions of Goals, Institutions, Demographics, Incomes, Preferences − Modeling: Co-benefits, Lock-ins, Endogenous and exogenous environment − Policy analysis: Balancing Equity, Efficiency and Sustainability

• Some Illustrations (from India)

− Aligning Energy Security and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals − Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia − Sustainable Development and Adapting Long-life Assets to Climate Risks

• Modeling Climate Stabilization Induced Development Paths
• Modeling Transition to Low Carbon Future through Sustainable Development
• Conclusions

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

What make developing countries different?

– Different stage of development: priorities and capabilities – Different economic dynamics than assumed in scenario assessments – Need and opportunities to align climate and development agenda

Developing Country Dynamics

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Understanding development

• Dual Economy
• Multiple Transitions
• Informal Activities
• Subsistence Production
• Market Performance and Disequilibria
• Non-commercial Fuels
• Non-economic Concerns
• Policy Distortions

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Transitions

Socio-Economic

Demographic

⎯

Population

⎯

Urban / Rural

⎯

Gender ratio

⎯

Migration Development

⎯

Soft indicators: Income, Equity, Literacy, Health

⎯

Hard indicators: Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances Political

⎯

Institutions

⎯

Laws

⎯

Policies

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Demographic Transitions in India: Age/Gender Profile

Population Projection for 2030 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population Projection for 2010 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population Projection for 2050 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population in 1970 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Demographic Transitions in India: Urban/Rural

Urban & Rural population of India (Medium Variant)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0

Year

% S h a r e Rural Urban

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Composition of India's GDP by Sector

Data Source: CMIE and Economic Surveys of India

1980 - 81

41% 37% 22%

1950 - 51

13% 28% 59%

2003 - 04

24% 51% 25% Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Industry Industry Industry Services Services Services 22%

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Shift in electricity demand and generation

Industry 59% Domestic 11%

1980 78 TWH

Industry 35% Domestic 22% Commercial 6% Agri 29%

2000 313 TWH

Traction 3% Others 5% Agri 17% Traction 3% Commercial 6% Others 4%

Demand Generation

Oil- Thermal 3% Nuclear 3% Gas- Thermal 11% Coal- Thermal 70% Hydro 13% Coal Thermal 51% Oil Thermal 0.02 % Gas Thermal 0.04% Hydro 45% Nuclear 4%

1971 61 TWH 2001 558 TWH

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Past Energy transitions: Global & India

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1850 1900 1950 2000 Percentage of PEC

Traditional renewables Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Coal

Global

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1 953-54 1 960-61 1 970-71 1 980-81 1 990-91 2001

• 02

Percentage of PEC

Non-commercial energy supply Hydro Coal & LIgnite Oil Gas Nuclear

India

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1952 1960 1970 1980 1990

Traditional Biomass Nuclear

How to transit to Modern Biomass? Food Security? Fuel Supply? Waste disposal? Safety?

• En. Security:

+Ve

Changing Structure of Energy Use

2001

Hydro Coal Oil Gas

Domestic Resource: +ve Direct Employment: +ve Energy Security: -ve Foreign Exchange: -ve Geopolitical Risk: High Foreign Exchange: -ve Regional water disputes? Indirect Benefits

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Efficient Appliances Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport) Advance Technologies

• Fuel-cell
• Hydrogen economy
• Bio-engineering

Transitions

Demand-side Opportunities

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Transition in Household Energy Use in India: Fuel-wood to LPG

Data Sources - Census 2001, NSS 1994, 2000

Urban Rural

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

%

5 10 15 20 25 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Index:1981=1 LPG consumption in India 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Index: 1981=1 Population Fuel-wood production % Household LPG penetration in India

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Awareness

• Pressure groups

Income-effects

• E.g. Kuznets

phenomenon Laws and Regulations

• Global agreements
• National policies

Technology

• Zero-effluent Processes
• Recycling

Environmental Transitions

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Conservation

• Substitutions
• Recycling

City Planning Architecture/ Building Codes Changing Preferences Income Effects

Consumption/Life-style Transitions

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Logistics

• Pipelines

Electricity T&D

• Decentralized utilities

Information

• Wireless

Nanotechnology New and Renewable Energy

• Hydrogen

Backbone Technology Transitions

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Path Dependence: Lock-ins vs. Innovations

• Elasticity of long-term paths to short-term influences
• Lock-ins from current technology supply
• SRES Scenarios and Technology paths
• Development policies and path dependence

Decarbonization

• f Primary Energy: History

400 600 800 1000 1960 1970 1980 1990

kgC/toe

China India USA Japan France 2000

?? IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios

5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Year CO

2(GtC

) A1 A2 B1 B2 WRE550

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Emerging drivers of technological change

International Labor market

• Wage differential
• Income gaps
• Migration

Human Capital Knowledge flows

• Diasporas and social networks
• Shifting comparative advantage in knowledge services
• Role of local and contextual knowledge
• Governance, risks and investment flows

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Modeling Developing Country Dynamics (Some illustrations from India)

− Aligning Technology Transitions with Climate Goals − Conjoint Market for CO2 and SO2 Emissions − Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

MDG and global targets India’s National plan targets Interface with Climate Change

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people with income below $1 a day and those who suffer from hunger

• Double the per capita income by 2012
• Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012
• Contain population growth to 16.2%

between 2001-2011

• Higher income enhances access to

services, food, fuel, information, an enhances mitigative and adaptive capacity

• Higher climate variability would

enhance risks to meet the goal Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Targets: Integrate SD principles in country policies/ programs to reverse loss of environmental resources Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water

• Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and

33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)

• Sustained access to potable drinking water

to all villages by 2007

• Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012

via decentralized sources

• Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by

2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

• Enhanced sink capacity, reduced

GHG and local emissions; lower fossil imports; reduced pressure on land, resources and ecosystems

• Higher adaptive capacity to from

enhanced supply of water, health & education in rural areas

MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change

Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development

Aligning climate policies and actions with:

• MDGs / National development targets
• Agreed goals under extant international agreements
• Developing resilience to Vulnerabilities and Adapting to changing Climate Parameters

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Bio-energy: Climate and Development Goals

• Rural Employment: (MDG1)

Large scale employment potential in Jatropha plantation, seed collection and extraction

• Farm Income (from waste lands): (MDG1)

Net income Rs. 12000/Ha/year

• Energy Security (MDG1&7)

Imported fossil oil is replaced

• Environment (MDG7)

Carbon neutral, Rehabilitates waste land

Rural Employment Oil Extraction Plant Jatropha Plantation in India

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Household lighting, cooking equipments

Farm auto, component industry Construction and auto industries Banking industry

INPUTS Land Fertiliser Labour Capital Machinery Energy Water Rural infra- structure

Rural unemployed & under-employed Surplus land from foodgrains sufficiency Water conservation, river linking Fertiliser industry Rural Financing infrastructure RE technologies – solar, wind, fuel cells, bio-fuels etc Roads, godowns, heavy vehicles

BIOMASS

Social-economic setup

• Animal waste
• Human waste
• Crop residues
• Waste-wood
• Forest produce
• pipeline transport

network Technology change

• agricrop productivity
• farm m/c efficiency
• Biomass and

biotechnology R&D

• fuel enduse efficiency

OUTPUTS Biomass for power Biomass for Gas Biomass pellets for burning Biomass liquid fuels Biomass waste Setting up

• f local

small scale industry base Hydrogen production Biomass fired electricity industry Community lighting and equipments Transportation

• personal

vehicles

• LCV, HCV

Farm equipment water pump, tractor fuel, agri processing Fertiliser use in fields + hand-made paper

Fuel-cells

Water processing + equipments industry

Land markets

Network for Biomass Technology/Fuel Deployment

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Conjoint Market for CO2 and SO2 Emissions

MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

India China Pakistan hanistan Myanmar (B Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Tajikistan Uzbekistan Indonesia Maldives

District-wise CO2 Emissions

India China Pakistan hanistan Myanmar (B Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Tajikistan Uzbekistan Indonesia Maldives

Million ton < 0 0.01 - 1.50 1.51 - 3.00 3.01 - 7.00 7.01 - 15.00 15.01 - 39.29

1991 2005

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

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India China Pakistan hanistan Myanmar (Bu Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Tajikistan Uzbekistan Indonesia Maldives

CO 2 E missions fr

• m Power

sec tor (2005)

0.00 - 1.40 1.41 - 3.66 3.67 - 8.67 more than 8.67

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

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India China Pakistan hanistan Myanmar (Bu Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Tajikistan Uzbekistan Indonesia Maldives

CO 2 E missions fr

• m Power

sec tor (2005)

0.00 - 1.40 1.41 - 3.66 3.67 - 8.67 more than 8.67

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

CO 2 E missions fr

• m Power

sec tor (2005)

0.00 - 1.40 1.41 - 3.66 3.67 - 8.67 more than 8.67

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

0.00 - 1.40 1.41 - 3.66 3.67 - 8.67 more than 8.67

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

CO2 emission from Power Sector (2005)

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

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CO 2 E missions fr

• m Ce ment sec tor

(2005)

0.00 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.23 0.24 - 0.60 more than 0.60

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

[ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _[ _[ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _[ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ [ _ India China Pakistan hanistan Myanmar (B Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Tajikistan Uzbekistan Indonesia Maldives

CO 2 E missions fr

• m Ce ment sec tor

(2005)

0.00 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.23 0.24 - 0.60 more than 0.60

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

CO 2 E missions fr

• m Ce ment sec tor

(2005)

0.00 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.23 0.24 - 0.60 more than 0.60

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

0.00 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.23 0.24 - 0.60 more than 0.60

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

CO2 Emissions (mil. tons)

Legend

CO2 emission from Cement Sector (2005)

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

LPS Locations

Year: 2000 Year: 2030

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Co-Benefits: Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation

Mitigation Regime Co-benefits SO2 mitigation alone Little carbon mitigation Joint Mitigation: CO2 mitigation @ $5/ton & same SO2 target Joint mitigation costs $400 Million less

Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030)

SO2 Emissions Million Ton SO2

1 2 3 4 5 6

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

7

Frozen SO2 Control Policies A2 Scenario Emission

Carbon Emissions 200 400 600 800 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Million Ton of Carbon

A2 Scenario Emissions With Carbon Price @ $5/ton of CO2 With BAU SO2 Control Policies

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Co-benefits from Aligning Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Adaptation Challenge: Food/Water/Energy/Climate

Food

Agriculture uses Ground Water for Irrigation

Water

Water use depends on crop pattern, cultivation practices, electricity supply, Climate

Climate

GHG emissions depend on Energy/ Technology Mix

Energy

Energy use depends on pump efficiency, water depth and Agriculture practices

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity Generation

State of Andhra Pradesh

800 1600 2400 3200 4000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Inflow (MTC)

200 400 600 800 1000

Rainfall (mm)

Water Inflow Rainfall in Catchments Area

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 Hydro Electricity Generation (TWh) 1996

Rainfall and Water Inflows Hydro Electricity Generation

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Benefit (Saving) Cumulative

from 2010 to 2030

$ Billion

% GDP

Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87 CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08 SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03 Total 359 0.98

South-Asia Energy-Water Cooperation: Co-benefits

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
• Flood control (MDG1&7)
• Lower energy prices would enhance

competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1) Integrated South-Asia Energy-Water Market

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Modeling Climate Stabilization Induced Development Paths

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Stabilization induced technological change

• Depends on the underlying endogenous development path
• Stabilization would induce significant technological change
• How to represent future technologies in models?
• Architecture of climate regime is the key driver

Addressing Questions from Negotiators

Allocations of Emissions Rights Taxes and Revenue Recycling Who pays? Technology protocols

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Indian Carbon Emissions Scenarios

Fragmented

IA1

Market Efficiency

IA2

Hybrid Economy (Reference)

IB1

Sustainable Development

IB2

Self Reliance Closed Economy

Centralizatio n Decentralization

Market integration Governance

Integrated 200 2000 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2020 2060 2100

CO2 Emissions (MT)

1800 2040 2080

IA2: Reference Scenario IB1: Sustainable Development IA1: Market Efficiency

Carbon Emissions

India’s Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century

(Billion Ton CO2 ) Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363 Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2) Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)

Indian Emissions Scenarios

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Medium-Term (2050)

IA2 IB1 IA1

750 2000 1500 2250 3000 3750 4500 2020 2050

CO2 Emissions (Million Ton)

2040 2010 2030

Frozen Technology

Conventional Technology Path: Includes significant endogenous technological change Renewable Energy Technologies Push for renewable energy & recycling Advanced car pooling, Shared assets Sustainable habitats, Reforestation Dematerialization, Community institutions High speed trains, Swap of transport by IT Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear (Thorium) Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks Advanced materials, Nanotechnology

Sustainable Development Scenario Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization

2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 2020 2060 2100 CO2 Emissions (Billion Ton) 7 2040 2080

550 ppmv IA2 IB1 IA1

Carbon Emissions for Indian Scenarios India’s Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century

(Billion Ton CO2 ) Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363 Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2) Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)

550 PPMV Cost-effective Regime : 140 (39% IA2)

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Modeling Transition to Low Carbon Future through Sustainable Development:

An Analysis for India

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

LCS is a “Development Pathway” which:

• a. facilitates achievement of the national socio-

economic objectives and targets,

• b. while contributing to the achievement of global
• bjectives and targets for stabilization of

greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,

• c. in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.

Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Developing Country context?

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Specifics of the roadmap would differ across countries. What is important is to communicate transparently the qualitative story and its quantification (i.e. modeling) Low Carbon Society Roadmap

Low Carbon Society Innovations

(APEIS/SDB)

Co-benefits Sustainability

Technological Social/Institutional Management Modify Preferences Avoid Lock-ins Long-term Vision Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Key areas for interventions:

Demographics

Lower Population Growth (e.g. investment in women’s education) Higher investment in social infrastructures (e.g. health, education)

Conservation

Efficient technology, Substitutions, Recycling, Pricing, Dematerialization

City Planning

Architecture/ Building Codes; Land use policies; Public Transport

Infrastructure choices R&D, technology transfer and selective technology push Incentives for environmental industry Influencing consumer preferences/ behavior

Low Carbon Society: Scenario Development for India

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

How sustainable development policies influence LCS? E.g. Education, Employment and Productivity nexus

Policies for public private partnership higher (public and private)

investments in education Increases supply of education services

Incentives for education for women and socially and economically backward

sections enhances demand for education

Women’s education reduces fertility rates & this together with family planning

campaigns lead to lower population (than in reference & some others cases)

The increases in labor participation rates and enhanced skill profiles maintains

labor supply and higher productivity in next few decades

Rural development policies (including education, employment, infrastructure

push and reduced risk for investments) break through the rural/ urban dualism

(Likewise

for other drivers, the sustainability scenario story differ)

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Factors of Production

• Labor Supply, Land-Use, Capital (Savings/ Investments)

Inputs: Resources supply/ Technologies

• Energy

Intermediate goods & investments

• Infrastructures
• Energy (& Carbon) Intensive Sectors

Final Demand/ Behavior

• Private Consumption (Income effects/ preferences)
• Government expenditure

Governance

• Rents
• Taxes
• Geopolitical Risks

Global/ External

• Trade
• Geopolitical Risks

Scenario Drivers

Demographic Transitions, Human Capital, Productivity, Growth and Sustainability

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals? India’s GDP (Index: 2005 GDP = 1)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Index: 2005 GDP = 1

CAGR 2005-32 VH - 9%, H - 8%, M - 7%, L - 6% CAGR 2005-50 VH - 7.79%, H - 7.16%, M - 6.45%, L - 5.95%

Very High High Medium Low

India’s Economic Growth: Future GDP Projections

India’s GDP Growth Rate (%)

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

GDP Growth Rates % Very High High Med Low

2050

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Demographic Transitions in India: Age/Gender Profile

Population Projection for 2030 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population Projec tion for 2010 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population Projection for 2050 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population in 1970 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male

1970 2010 2030 2050

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Population and Working Age Population

Population (Million)

358 555 849 1183 1449 1593

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Annual Growth Rate of Population

2.22% 2.15% 1.67% 1.02% 0.47%

0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1950-70 1970-90 1990-2010 2010-30 2030-50

Labor Supply

133 210 360 595 795 915 200 400 600 800 1000 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Annual Growth Rate of Labor Supply

2.30% 2.74% 2.54% 1.46% 0.70% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 1950-70 1970-90 190-2010 2010-30 2030-50

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Growth Scenarios

Human Capital

⎯

Government Expenditure in Education

⎯

Private Expenditure in Education

⎯

Urban / Rural & Gender-wise Education Expenditure

⎯

(Net) Migration by Labor Classes (intra & inter county)

• R&D

⎯

Government/ Private Expenditure

⎯

Knowledge Flows

Technology

⎯

Backbones (infrastructures)

⎯

Learning, transfers, deployment

Saving/ Investments

⎯

Social Security

⎯

Lifestyles, Behaviors

Governance

⎯

Institutions

⎯

Laws

⎯

Policies

Savings Rate

20.60 22.80 24.60 31.50 33.00 30.00 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 40 35.00 26.00

??

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Changing Structure of the Economy

1980

41% 37% 22%

1950

13% 28% 59%

2005

Agriculture Agriculture Industry Industry Services Services 22% 52% 26% Agriculture Industry Services 22%

History

Services 47% Industry 25%

2000

Agri. 28% Services 56% Agri. 18% Industry 26%

2050

Industry 28% Agri. 10% Services 62%

2100

Future

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Modeling & Analysis of Low Carbon Development Path

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Low Carbon Society (LCS) Scenario

Drivers of India’s LCS Scenario

Carbon Market Signal (e.g. from 2

• Centigrade Global Target)

Energy Device Efficiency (Demand and Supply-side) Dematerialization

⎯

Building Materials and Design

⎯

Reduce (demand), Recycle & Reuse (3R) Materials Infrastructure investments

⎯

Avoid lock-ins

⎯

Shift demand (e.g. transport modal split) R&D and Technology Transfer

⎯

Leapfrog (to the efficiency frontier)

⎯

Innovations (to shift the efficiency frontier) Planning & Governance

⎯

Facilitate change in Lifestyles & Behaviors

⎯

Institutions, Laws, Policies

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Carbon Emissions: Base vs. LCS Scenario for India

Mitigation

India’s Cumulative Carbon Emission from 2000-2050

Billion Ton of CO2 Reference Scenario: 127.2 LCS Scenario: 64.3 Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 62.9 % Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 49.5% % Mitigation in LCS in 2050: 70.0%

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Mitigation in LCS Scenario for India

Electricity (Supply

+ T&D Efficiency)

Buildings

(Materials/Design)

Transport (Modal shift) Material substitutions Renewable Energy Reduced Consumption Recycling 745 384 328 274 207 90 102 265 Device Efficiency

2840 Total CO2 Mitigation Mitigation in LCS

(in 2050) 173 272 Urban Planning Transport Infrastructure 2050 2000 2006 1284 Million Ton of CO2 1032 4057 2050 LCS Emission: 1217 (70% Mitigation target in 2050)

2050 Base Scenario

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Mitigation through “dematerialization” in LCS Scenario

• Dematerialization in LCS vis-à-vis Base Scenario is

contributed by multiple direct and indirect policies, most of which belong to the policy packages relating to “sustainable development”.

• Change in building materials and design contribute

significantly to dematerialization and energy efficiency in construction

• In addition, three other key contributors to

mitigation through dematerialization are:

Mitigation (MT CO2 ) in 2050

Material Substitutions 207 Reduced Consumption 173 Recycling 90

• Energy and carbon intensive materials - of which

the substitutions and reduced consumption contribute most to mitigation in the LCS scenario - are steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer and paper.

• Recycling reduces the energy and carbon intensity
• f the materials, besides delivering environmental

co-benefits.

Materials Demand in Base vs. LCS Cement Fertilizer Paper Steel

Base LCS Base LCS Base LCS Base LCS

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

CO2 Intensities: Base vs. LCS Scenario

India’s CO2 intensity of GDP: Index 2000=100

Index 2000=100

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

12.1 Base Scenario LCS Scenario 3.6

India’s Per Capita CO2 Emissions (in Ton of CO2)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000

Per Capita Emissions Base Scenario LCS Scenario

3.0

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

SO2 Mitigation Co-benefits of LCS Scenario

Mitigation Regime Co-benefits

SO2 mitigation alone in Reference Scenario

Little carbon mitigation

SO2 Co-benefit in LCS Scenario

LCS policies generate benefits equivalent to 30% lower SO2

in 2050 and cumulative saving in SO2 Emissions Reduction

equivalent to $11.2 billion over period 2006-2050

Joint Mitigation (Period 2007-2050)

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Adapting to Climate Change:

Vulnerability and Adaptation of Long-life Assets from Climate Change

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Monsoon Rainfall (2050)

Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals? 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Repair and Maintenance Costs

Cost with adverse Climate Change Conventional Bath- Tub Curve Cost with adverse Climate Change and Deforestation

Maintenance Cost Curve

More number of days with >200 mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm rainfall Less number

• f

days with >200 mm rainfall Present C limate Future Climate Probability of Occurrence Light and spread

• over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change

Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability

Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

Conclusions: Aligning Climate & Sustainable Development Actions

Transiting to a Sustainable and Low Carbon Society

– The LCS actions in developing countries should be development centric and facilitate achieving national sustainable development and global environmental

• bjectives simultaneously and cost-effectively

Developing Scenarios for Sustainable and Low Carbon Society

– Developing scenario storyline to gain ‘development and climate’ co-benefits in the near-term and avoid lock-ins in the long-run to transit to a sustainable development pathway – Mainstreaming climate actions, including mitigation and adaptation, with development actions that include innovations, co-benefits and sustainability

Modeling and Analysis for Sustainable and Low Carbon Society

– Multi-purpose soft-linked modeling tools linked to strategic global & national databases – Mainstream assessment of climate change and development actions through national sustainable development objectives and targets

How to align climate change actions with national sustainable development goals?

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