HOW BIOENERGY CAN DRIVE SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT AND REGIONAL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

HOW BIOENERGY CAN DRIVE SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT AND REGIONAL GREEN ECONOMY – A SYNERGETIC ASSESSMENT APPROACH

Florian Kraxner*, Jue Yang, Kentaro Aoki*, Sylvain Leduc*, Yoshiki Yamagata

*International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria National Institute for Environmental Studies, NIES, Japan

• Increasing sustainable bioenergy generation
• Perception, awareness and knowledge of the public

in a Japanese Eco-Model City

• Ecological and economic incentives
• Identify policy needs to support domestic forest use
• Improving Forest Management (SFM/Certification)
• Sustainable Rural Development
• Supporting Local Industry
• Comparison to other Eco-Model Cities

Study Aims

?? Is it enough to introduce RE policy without accompanying measures and knowledge on people‘s opinion??

 UN Kyoto Protocol

(-6% from 1990)

 Biomass Nippon Strategy

 Prevention of CC  Development of recycling-oriented society  Incubation of new industries  Activation of rural areas

 Roadmap to Copenhagen COP 13 (-25 to -40%

during next 15-20 years)

 G8 Summit Toyako Hokkaido (-50% by 2050)  IEA: 21% of global energy in 2050 from renewables

Background

Energy Information Administration, 2009. Global Oil Consumption, 2009.

Global Future Energy Portfolios, 2000 – 2100

Source: Azar et al., 2010

Energy self-sufficiency ratio in Japan is 17.5% (nuclear energy is counted as domestic energy resource) and fossil oil dependency was 46.4 % in 2008 (ANRE, 2010).

OVERVIEW - JAPAN

Industrialized and developed country Forest share of total area: 67% 41% of which is under management 1% of total forest area is certified Japan 1% of energy supply from RE (mostly waste biomass, only 4%

• f harvested wood goes into

biomass for bioenergy) e.g. compared to Austria 25% of energy supply from RE 25% of harvested wood is used as biomass for bioenergy

Forest Certification

0,006.480 mio ha (FSC) Shimokawa Town=

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Canada USA Finland Russia Sweden PEFC FSC

UNECE Region

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 PEFC FSC

Certified forest area in million hectares Outside UNECE

Oliver and Kraxner, 2009

Japan

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Japan China Brazil Australia Hong Kong Vietnam New Zealand Indonesia South Africa 2009 Malaysia FSC PEFC

Forest Products Certification CoC (outside UNECE)

Oliver and Kraxner, 2009

CoC certificates by country outside the UNECE region

Forestry Situation in Japan

Methodology

Socio-Economic Analysis of Yusuhara Town

 Public Opinion on Forest, Forestry, Wood,

Environment, Renewable Energy

 Forest Sector

 Public Opinion Survey  Questionnaire

Yusuhara Town, Kochi, Shikoku I sland

Population 4,860 Area 23,651ha Forest cover 91 % Forestry is a major industry. Selection criteria:

• Rural area
• Strong forest sector
• Cooperation with local authorities
• Certification

Target Area in Japan

 Part A: collects general information on the individual

household.

 Part B: investigates people’s perception of the local forest

and its condition.

 Part C: tests the public’s knowledge on

sustainability, certification and the willingness

• f increased forest management.

 Part D: tests the publics’ opinion regarding

wood itself and biomass in general. Further, the willingness for a change in forestry or the capability of innovative imaginations is surveyed.

 Part E: tests the environmental

knowledge and willingness to pay for mitigating climate change.

The Questionnaire Design

Shimokawa Town, Hokkaido, Japan

Population 3,860 Area 644 km2 Forest cover 90 % Forestry is a major industry. Selection criteria:

• Rural area
• Strong forest sector
• Cooperation with local authorities
• Certification
• Eco-Model City

Target Area in Japan

 Part A: collects general information on the individual

household.

 Part B: investigates people’s perception of the local forest

and its condition.

 Part C: tests the public’s knowledge on

sustainability, certification and the willingness

• f increased forest management.

 Part D: tests the publics’ opinion regarding

bioenergy.

The Questionnaire Design

Results – Gender and Age

gender female 34% male 66%

histogram of age 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% below 20 from30to39 from50to59 above70 age

Respondents’ gender structure Age distribution

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 agriculture foresty localgov company worke management civil servant self employed housewife part-time worker unemployed

• ther

percent of cases

Results – Forest Ownership and Jobs

• thers,

143, 19% not sure, 17, 2% forest

• wner,

605, 79%

Respondents’ forest ownership Respondents’ job structure

Results – Forest Functions

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% biodiversity ecosystem water provision disaster prevention recreation wood production employment carbon storage

forester farmer companyworker unemployed Public’s perception of forest functions

Results – Meaning and Use of Forest



Agreement to statements on the meaning and use of forest by different job groups

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% good for environment & climate the symbol of nature needs to be protected feel closest to nature should be used should be protected & used

forester company worker unemployed farmer

Results – Increased Forest Use



Forest owners’ versus non-forest owners’ levels of agreement (significant) regarding an increased use of the forest (harvesting more trees) under “normal conditions” (SFM has not been mentioned explicitly) and under “SFM conditions” (SFM has been explicitly mentioned).

104 212 22 152 9 27 18 176 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% non forest

• wners

forest

• wners

agree disagree stay the same not sure 17 69 84 155 55 365 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% non forest

• wners

forest

• wners

Results – Forest Functions

Public’s perception of forest functions

Highest agreement among all respondents as to what constituted the most important role of

forest was found for natural-biophysical functions such as forest as important ecosystem and living space. The lowest importance was attributed to forest’s role as place for wood and biomass production and for creating jobs and especially as a place for recreation.

Results – Meaning and Use of Forest



Agreement to statements on the meaning and use of forest by different job groups

Highest agreement was stated for the notions forest being good for the environment and climate. As soon as the production function is included to the statements – such as that forests should be used by man through forest management and harvesting, the agreement level goes down by some 30% .

Results – Harvesting Levels & Conditions



Preconditions under which harvesting intensity for bioenergy might change

Certain combinations favor or hinder the acceptance of increased harvesting in Shimokawa-

• Town. The pure aspect of certification did not fully convince people to accept an increase of
• harvesting. Also an increase of harvest that directly goes into bioenergy did not convince many

more people to accept it. The situation changes, once a combination of e.g. certification or SFM with the objective of bioenergy production is introduced.

Results – Biomass for Bioenergy, Home Heating



Most people in Shimokawa Town stated to have a home heating system based on kerosene (85%), gas (44%) or electricity (32%). Only 8% of all households have their heating system based on wood and 2% are using also solar heat. Especially the use of wood – in a Town that is 90% covered by forest – seemed to be extremely low and hence offered clear room for improvement. This idea had been also successfully picked up in the Eco-Model City proposal to the Japanese government.

399 204 148 37 15 11 3 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 kerosene gas electricity wood

• thers

sola heavy crude oil

Results – Switch Home Heating



In the case that the respondents would have been able to easily switch to another heating system, almost 70% would have chosen to switch to a solar option, while switching to a heating system based on forest biomass would have been the second choice, selected by 28% of the public, followed by wind (27%) and pellet systems (24%).



The willingness-to-pay analysis indicated that male respondents, when they are older than the average and have a higher income, show most willingness to invest and switch towards a forest biomass based heating system.

299 121 119 104 94 84 34 24 23 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 solar biomass wind pellet hydro geothermal nothing

• il

nuclear

Results and Conclusions

• 1. Unrealized economic potential for domestic forest

certification in close linkage to an increased forest use for bioenergy

• 2. Forest owners, aware of certification, willing to

increase forest use, also want to increase the biomass for bioenergy production

• 3. People know too little about the forest, its

functions and its management – even on the country side

Where is demand/supply?

 Heat demand  Plantation Forestry

Sustainable Forest Use

 Very

conservative (sustainable approach)

 Using 0.05%

• f stocking

wood

 Using much

less than ½ increment

 Forest

Certification possible

Scenario settings

 3 Sizes of Biomass Plants  Produce 10-15 PJ Energy per year (BNS aims at

120PJ from total biomass (including waste)

Definition Biomass input Min Size 10 MW Medium size 50 MW Max Size 100 MW

Geographic explicit results

S1, all S2, medium only

Rural Development Effects: Optimal vs Steered

Geographic explicit results

S2, medium only S4, small only S3, large only

Rural Development Effects: Centralized vs De-centralized

Policy R Relevant Concl nclus usions ns

?? Is it enough to introduce re-policy without decent and well-based accompanying measures??

• Forest Bioenergy is Applied and Sustainable Rural

Development

• Link climate change mitigation policies with re-

activating forestry in Japan

• Education/information needs for SFM and FC especially

in rural forested areas AND

• Link technical approaches with socio-economic

investigation for better future planning

!Comments! !Suggestions! ?Questions?

Florian Kraxner

kraxner@iiasa.ac.at, florian.kraxner@nies.go.jp www.iiasa.ac.at, www.nies.go.jp