1 Housing Market Trends and Conditions in the 495/MetroWest Region Presentation to the 495/MetroWest Suburban Edge Community Commission Prepared by: The Public Policy Center at UMass Dartmouth Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D., David Borges, MPA, Michael P. McCarthy, MPP, and Holly Stickles, Graduate Research Assistant November 18, 2016
2 The vast majority of 495/ MetroWest’s housing units are owner-occupied. • The region has 219,660 occupied housing units, representing 96.6% of all units – The implied vacancy rate of 4.4% is lower than what is considered healthy for residential churn (~7.0%) • Nearly three-quarters (74.3%) of all units are owner-occupied – Higher than state average of 62.3% – Fairly stable rate since 2009 (77.3%) Source: American Community Survey 2005-2009 & 2010-2014 5-year estimates
3 Regional housing production has dropped off significantly this century 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1959 or earlier 1960 to 1979 1980 to 1999 2000 or later Owner Occupied Renter Occupuied Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates
4 The mix of regional housing units has been very stable in recent years • Between 2009 and 2014, the region’s housing supply increased by an estimated 13,404 units 2009 2014 Total Units 216,391 229,795 In� Single-Unit� Building 73% 73% In� Multi-Unit� Building 27% 27% Source: American Community Survey 2005-2009 & 2010-2014 5-year estimates
5 Regional housing production has not recovered pre-recession levels … Building Permits Approved by Year 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 • Building permit estimates show that 19,352 new units were approved between 2009 and 2014 • During this time, an estimated 12,558 new households were formed in the MetroWest region. Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates; Census of Building Permits 2009-2014
6 … neither have home prices and closings. Median Sales Price and Total Sales Volume, 2005 to Oct. 2016 $500,000 10,000 $450,000 9,000 $400,000 8,000 Sales Price (Inflation-adjusted) $350,000 7,000 Number of Sales $300,000 6,000 $250,000 5,000 $200,000 4,000 $150,000 3,000 $100,000 2,000 $50,000 1,000 $0 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Median Sale Price Sales Volume Source: MLS Home Sales 2005-2016
7 Sub-regional and local housing markets can vary significantly • The median sales price across the region was $395,000 in 2015, compared to an inflation-adjusted median of $471,779 in 2005 • So far in 2016, only Natick, Upton, and Wayland have median sales prices at or above 2005 levels.
8 The region is home to a number of “hot markets” • In total,495/MetroWest saw a total of 8,499 home sales in 2015. • Framingham, which accounted for almost one-tenth of all sales in 2015 (9.6%) still lags behind its 2005 high of 1,012 sales.
9 Homebuyer demand is strong • The median time on market for the entire region was 46 days. • Only in Harvard, Hopedale, Stow, Sudbury, and Westborough was the median time on market greater than two months.
10 Single family homes dominate the regional “for sale” market Source: MLS Home Sales 2005-2016
11 The amount of house that buyers get for their money has been stable since 2009. Median Price per Square Foot • The price per square foot declined $300 as the housing crisis unfolded • The region has not recovered to $250 pre-recession levels at the same Price per Square Foot (Inflation-adjusted) rate as total home prices or sales $200 • Since at least 2009, half (50%) of all homes in 495/ MetroWest have $150 7 rooms or more • $100 Statewide 33% of all homes have 7 rooms or more $50 • One-in-three homes in 495/MetroWest has four or more bedrooms (33%) $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Median Price/sqft • Compared to one-in-five statewide (20%) Source: MLS Home Sales 2005-2016; American Community Survey 2005-2009 & 2010-2014 5-year estimates
12 In 2014, 45% of renter and 30% of homeowner households were housing cost burdened. Households by Share of Income Spent on Housing Costs 100% 90% 22% 26% 35% 36% 80% 8% Share of Households 70% 10% 60% 10% 9% 50% 40% 70% 64% 30% 55% 55% 20% 10% 0% Renters Owners Renters Owners 2009 2014 Less than 30.0% of Income 30.0 to 34.9% of Income 35.0% of Income or More Source: American Community Survey 2005-2009 & 2010-2014 5-year estimates; Owners represent those with mortgages.
13 Only six 495/MetroWest communities have subsidized housing inventory (SHI) shares of 10% or higher – the state’s affordable housing mandate. • Overall, 7.8% of 495/MetroWest housing units count towards the SHI – These represent 7.0% of the SHI units statewide • SHI units in the six communities that have met the goal represent 45.17% of all SHI units in 495/MetroWest – Largest share: Littleton (12.5%) – Most SHI units: Framingham (2,870 units or 10.5%) Source: Massachusetts Dept. of Housing and Community Development Subsidized Housing Inventory (Last updated Dec. 2014)
14 Implications • The region is not producing an adequate supply of housing to meet the needs of its residents. This makes prices higher than they would otherwise be. • The region’s housing market has not yet fully recovered from the housing crisis • Nearly one-in- four of the region’s renters (23,793 households) are paying more for housing than they can afford • Inadequate housing supply constrains the prospects for regional economic growth
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