Horticulture labour supply and demand 2018 update Name of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Horticulture labour supply and demand

Name of presenter Dion Gamperle Venue or event RSE conference Date of presentation 16/17 August 2018

• 2018 update

Purpose of the report

• To quantify the known labour shortage within the

horticulture and viticulture industry

• This is important as it helps with discussions on

changes to the RSE cap

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General labour market condition

• Tight labour market
• Unemployment rate lowest since December

2008

• Difficulty finding both skilled and unskilled labour
• Lower numbers of working holiday workers and

international students

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Difficulty in finding labour

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• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 60 80 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Net % of firms Skilled labour Unskilled labour

Growth in job vacancies by occupation

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5.7% 4.1% 2.6% 10.1% 3.0% 6.7% 12.9% 25.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

65 to 76 percent of workers are New Zealanders

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10 20 30 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of employees NZ workers Migrant workers Rolling average Rolling average

Working holiday workers

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1 2 3 4 5 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of employees Working holiday workers Rolling average

International students

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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of employees Intl Students Rolling average

Production

• Growth expected to continue
• Driven mostly by hectares planted rather than

increases in yields

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Forecast growth in production and hectares

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3.4% 6.2% 3.0% 3.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Pipfruit Kiwifruit Wine Summerfruit

Production

CAGR

2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20 20 40 2012 2016 2020 2024 Thousands of hectares Thousands of hectares

Hectares

Wine (LHS) Pipfruit (RHS) Kiwifruit (RHS) Summerfruit (RHS)

Forecast growth in total hours required by task

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2.6% 2.7% 3.5% 3.7% 2.5% 3.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Thinning Pruning Harvest Processing Maintenance / Planting Total

Labour demand and supply model

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Breakdowns

Crops Regions

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Pipfruit Kiwifruit Wine grapes Summer fruit

Otago Nelson-Marlborough Hawke’s Bay Gisborne Bay of Plenty Northland

Tasks:

• Pruning
• Thinning
• Harvesting
• Packing/processing
• Maintaining the vines

Workers:

• Permanent staff
• Casual staff
• Work and income clients
• International visitors
• NZ seasonal Labour Scheme
• Recognised Seasonal Employer

Scheme

Data sources

• Statistics NZ (especially IDI)
• Government agencies (MPI, MBIE, Immigration

NZ)

• Horticulture NZ
• Pipfruit NZ
• NZ Kiwifruit Growers Inc
• NZ Winegrowers

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Model results

Year end June 2018 /19 2019 /20 2020 /21 2021 /22 2022 /23 2023 /24 Maximum workers available 27,408 27,800 28,154 28,464 28,797 29,462 Workers needed 30,071 30,940 32,023 33,100 34,285 35,556 Difference

• 2,663
• 3,140
• 3,869
• 4,636
• 5,488
• 6,428

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Demand growing faster than supply

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Sensitivity analysis

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• 10,000
• 8,000
• 6,000
• 4,000
• 2,000

2016 /17 2017 /18 2018 /19 2019 /20 2020 /21 2021 /22 2022 /23 2023 /24 2024 /25 Shortage of workers Model (2016) Model (2016) new RSE cap Model (2018) Model (2018) WHS & Int Stud.

Result by crop type

Year end June 2018/19 Low supply Mid case High supply Month of biggest deficit Kiwifruit

• 2,536
• 778
• 11 April

Pipfruit

• 2,840
• 2,165
• 1,481 March

Summerfruit

• 1,543
• 1,310
• 1,078 January

Wine grapes

• 2,116
• 1,418
• 715 July

All 4 crops

• 5,880
• 2,663
• 2,018 April

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Result by crop type – WHS & Intl stud. fall

Year end June 2018/19 Low supply Mid case High supply Month of biggest deficit Kiwifruit

• 3,210
• 1,590
• 77 April

Pipfruit

• 3,401
• 2,763
• 2,118 March

Summerfruit

• 1,650
• 1,424
• 1,199 January

Wine grapes

• 2,462
• 1,848
• 1,219 July

All 4 crops

• 7,482
• 4,493
• 2,530 January

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Labour deficit by region and crop

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Bay of Plenty: -1,590 Hawke’s Bay: -1,920 Nelson-Marlborough: -843 Otago: -80 Otago: -925 Hawke’s Bay: -499 Nelson-Marlborough: -1,822 Otago: -9 Hawke’s Bay: -45 Gisborne: -26

Other sections of the report

• Accommodation
• Transport
• Training and education
• Technology

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How to improve the report?

• Further work needs to be done to improve

estimates of the level of contractor supply to reduce the uncertainty of the estimates.

• Further refinement to improve the key

assumptions in our model.

• More comprehensive collection of data on

accommodation and transport provided is required to provide a more informed view of the working conditions.

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• Thanks

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