Historical changes on the GBR: looking to the past to manage the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Historical changes on the GBR: looking to the past to manage the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Historical changes on the GBR: looking to the past to manage the future NERP Project 1.3 J. Zhao, J. Pandolfi, T. Clark , T. Done, S. Smithers, S. Lewis, M. McCulloch, G. Roff, L. McCook, K. Welsh, Y. Feng, A. Rodriguez-Ramirez, E. Liu, H.

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SLIDE 1

NERP Project 1.3

The Reef and its ecosystems – how are they shaping up?

Historical changes on the GBR: looking to the past to manage the future

  • J. Zhao, J. Pandolfi, T. Clark, T. Done, S. Smithers, S. Lewis, M. McCulloch, G. Roff,
  • L. McCook, K. Welsh, Y. Feng, A. Rodriguez-Ramirez, E. Liu, H. Markham, N.

Leonard, M. Lepore, M. Prazeres, I. Butler, J. D’Olivo, E. Rogers, E. Ryan

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SLIDE 2

RELEVANCE OF WORK

?

present past 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 1700

European settlement in QLD Low Isles Expedition 1926-29 Historical photographs 1893-onwards First methodological survey following COTS outbreak: Other NERP Projects

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SLIDE 3

RELEVANCE OF WORK

Lack of long-term knowledge = risk of ‘shifting baseline syndrome’

Lotze and Worm 2009 Trends in Ecology and Evolution

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PROJECT GOALS

What are the environmental changes on inshore GBR reefs over broad temporal scales? How do inshore GBR communities respond to environmental change? What are the ecological changes in inshore GBR coral reef communities over broad temporal scales?

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RESULTS

Wet Tropics

Fitzroy Is High Is Frankland Islands Green Is Michaelmas Rf Double Is Low Isles Alexandra Rf Yule Point

Palm Islands

Pelorus Is Orpheus Is Fantome Is Havannah Is Pandora Rf

Whitsundays

Hayman Is Lindeman Is Border Is Stone Is Bramston Rf

Keppel Islands

North Keppel Is Halfway Is Barren Is Pelican Is

Hervey Bay

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SLIDE 6

RESULTS

Keppel Islands

pic.twitter.com/I0KewT8X

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RESULTS – KEPPEL ISLANDS

North Keppel Is Halfway Is Barren Is

% live coral % dead coral

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RESULTS – KEPPEL ISLANDS

North Keppel Is Halfway Is Barren Is

Depth

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RESULTS – KEPPEL ISLANDS

North Keppel Is Halfway Is Barren Is

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SLIDE 10

v

RESULTS

Palm Islands

Photo: NASA/ Norman Kuring

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RESULTS – PALM ISLANDS

Pelorus Is Orpheus Is Fantome Is Havannah Is Pandora Rf

Phase shift – unprecedented over the past ~1500 yrs

Depth

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RESULTS – PALM ISLANDS

% live coral % dead coral

Pelorus Is Orpheus Is Fantome Is Havannah Is Pandora Rf

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RESULTS – PALM ISLANDS

Pelorus Is Orpheus Is Fantome Is Havannah Is Pandora Rf

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RESULTS: PALM VS KEPPEL ISLANDS

DESCRIPTION KEPPEL ISLANDS PALM ISLANDS Region Southern GBR Central GBR Acro live v dead assemblage ↑ abundance in both live and dead assemblage Dominates dead assemblage Acro reef-matrix cores Dominant past 6ka Phase shift Mortality patterns Spatially variable Spatially variable Current Acro cover High* Low Time since most recent mortality < 10 yrs > 60 yrs

*until 2011 flood caused widespread mortality

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RESULTS: PALM VS KEPPEL ISLANDS

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APPLICATION OF WORK

OUTCOME APPLICATION TO MANAGEMENT Evidence of what the reef was like prior to European colonization and LTM

  • Overcome ‘shifting baseline’
  • Target for reef restoration

Long-term records of environmental and ecological variability

  • How have reefs responded in the past?
  • Recovery rates
  • Identify drivers of change – anthropogenic
  • r climatic?
  • Assist with cost-benefit analysis

Robust scientific knowledge to support management decisions

  • Identify vulnerable/resilient reefs
  • Promote restoration
  • Enhance protection

Present Recent past Past

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SLIDE 17

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

  • Broad-scale understanding of ecological and environmental

changes on the GBR

  • Long-term (millenial-scale) records of environmental change
  • Disentangle anthropogenic disturbances from climatic and natural

mortality

  • Extend sampling design to high latitude/marginal reefs
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SLIDE 18

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

1994 1915 2012

Stone Island

Source: GBRMPA Source: GBRMPA

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SLIDE 19

THANK YOU

NERP Historical Working Group

The University of Queensland 6 September 2013 Contact: T. Clark T: (07) 3346 9755