High School Graduate Trends WICHEs Knocking at the College Door - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
high school graduate trends
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

High School Graduate Trends WICHEs Knocking at the College Door - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 16, 2023 274 likes •1.14k views

High School Graduate Trends WICHEs Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates, 9 th Ed. Peace Bransberger / knocking.wiche.edu #NACAC17 Fewer Grads in Total; More non-White Grads #NACAC17 Projected number compared to

slide-1
SLIDE 1 #NACAC17

High School Graduate Trends

WICHE’s Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates, 9th Ed. Peace Bransberger / knocking.wiche.edu
slide-2
SLIDE 2 #NACAC17

Fewer Grads in Total; More non-White Grads

Projected number compared to 2012-13, last confirmed year.
slide-3
SLIDE 3 #NACAC17

Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads

285 466 440 199 449 654 918 791 1.6M 1.9M 1.8M 1.7M 1.6M 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 3.44M 3.46M 3.59M 1992 2007 2025 2032 2013 Total White Hispanic Black Private schools Asian/Pacific Isl. American Indian
slide-4
SLIDE 4 #NACAC17

Regional Variation

2000- 2013 2013- 2025 South 2.6% 0.6% West 2.1% 0.2% Midwest 0.8%
  • 0.4%
Northeast 1.6%
  • 0.5%
  • Avg. Annual Change
slide-5
SLIDE 5 #NACAC17

Growth or Decline

 Fewer graduates  About the same  More graduates

slide-6
SLIDE 6 #NACAC17

Growth Regions

  • Additional grads from Texas and Florida account
for ~80% of all additional U.S. grads by 2025
  • California may have seen its high year, or very
near so
  • Whether growing or contracting, state trends
largely driven by Hispanic grad trends – In California, 60k more Hispanic grads by 2025, then almost that many fewer by 2030s

West South

(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)
slide-7
SLIDE 7 #NACAC17

Regions in Decline

  • 24 of the U.S. states do not have a new high
projected – 14 states have a small new increase between 2013 & 2025, but it doesn't exceed their prior high – 10 states are in perpetual decline
  • 16 of the states with little increase or none at all
are in the Midwest and Northeast

Midwest

(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)

Northeast

slide-8
SLIDE 8 #NACAC17 2030 Nation: -4.0% 2025 Nation: +4.7% 2020 Nation: -0.1%

Compared to 2013 by State

See Knocking pages 20-23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.
slide-9
SLIDE 9

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2020

Midwest Northeast South West

Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2020.  Fewer  About the same  More
slide-10
SLIDE 10

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2025

Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2025.  Fewer  About the same  More

Midwest Northeast South West

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2032

Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2032.  Fewer  About the same  More

Midwest Northeast South West

slide-12
SLIDE 12 #NACAC17

Racial/Ethnic Diversity

 White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  American Indian  Private schools Fewer White graduates bring down the total, but there are additional graduates in virtually every state.

slide-13
SLIDE 13 #NACAC17

Increase for Most States in the South

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private
slide-14
SLIDE 14 #NACAC17

Growth in Western States Mitigated by Slowdown from California

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private
slide-15
SLIDE 15 #NACAC17

The Midwest: Strong Minority Graduate Increases But Steep Downturn of White Graduates

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private
slide-16
SLIDE 16 #NACAC17

Decreases for All Northeast States Except New York

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.  White  Hispanic  Black  Asian  Am. Ind.  Private
slide-17
SLIDE 17 #NACAC17

Dampening Effect of Lower Male & Minority High School Graduation Rates

Male & Female Graduate Projections, forthcoming September 2017

And a few other data points…

slide-18
SLIDE 18 #NACAC17

First Generation Students

Children Ages 5 to 17 in 2015

Race/ Ethnicity Total Millions Parent with
  • Assoc. or Higher
White 26.9 61% Hispanic 12.1 25% Asian 2.4 70% Black 6.7 35% Source: NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 104.70, from American Community Survey (ACS) data.

Families with Children Ages 0 to 8 in 2012

Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from 2012 ACS PUMS file. Income Total Millions Parent with
  • Assoc. or Higher
All Families 11.9 47% < 200% Fed. Poverty Level 7.9 21% >= FPL 4.0 68%
slide-19
SLIDE 19 #NACAC17

Income Distribution of Households With Children, U.S., 2010-2014

Students from Lesser Means

Medians  HHs with children
  • - All Households
Distribution (95% of families) Each bar segment is 20% of the families American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates $65K $79K $91K $37K $42K $0K $50K $100K $150K $200K $250K $300K $350K All Races White 20M Asian 1.8M Black 4.3M Hispanic 6.6M State data on State Profiles
slide-20
SLIDE 20 426K more graduates from families with lower than average income 138K more from families with higher than average income 37K fewer from families below average income 100K fewer from families above average income

Change in Graduates by 2025 & Median Family Income 2014

Difference in HSGs from 2014 to 2024 Median Income by State & Race, Households with Children, 2014  Amer. Ind.  Asian/Pac.Is.  Black  Hispanic  White
slide-21
SLIDE 21 #NACAC17

A15: Year 2030: What are you doing to prepare for the future?

Jon Boeckenstedt DePaul University, IL

slide-22
SLIDE 22 #NACAC17 http://www.wiche.edu
slide-23
SLIDE 23 #NACAC17 http://www.wiche.edu
slide-24
SLIDE 24 #NACAC17 https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.20.asp?current=yes
slide-25
SLIDE 25 #NACAC17 Source: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/income_expenditures_poverty_wealth.html Table 691. Be sure to read notes on data there. For clarity, categories have been merged; for example, data for "White" includes "White Alone" (for 2001 and beyond) and "White" (prior to 2001).
slide-26
SLIDE 26 #NACAC17 https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.30.asp?current=yes
slide-27
SLIDE 27 #NACAC17 Source: DePaul Admissions and Financial Aid Data
slide-28
SLIDE 28 #NACAC17

US Household Income Distribution, 2015

6.1% 6.2% 14.1% 12.1% 16.7% 12.7% 10.0% 10.5% 11.6%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Over $200K $150K-$200K $100K -$150K $75K-$100K $50K-$75K $35K-$50K $25K-$35K $15K-$25K Under $15K https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2016/demo/income-poverty/p60-256.html
slide-29
SLIDE 29 #NACAC17

Unweighted Average Cost Tuition/Fees/Room Board

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Public two-year (In-District) Public four-year (In-State) Public four-year (Out-of- State) Private Nonprofit Four-Year 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 https://www.statista.com/statistics/235651/us-university-attendance-cost/
slide-30
SLIDE 30 #NACAC17
slide-31
SLIDE 31 #NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
slide-32
SLIDE 32 #NACAC17
slide-33
SLIDE 33 #NACAC17
slide-34
SLIDE 34 #NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
slide-35
SLIDE 35 #NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
slide-36
SLIDE 36 #NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
slide-37
SLIDE 37 #NACAC17
slide-38
SLIDE 38 #NACAC17
slide-39
SLIDE 39 #NACAC17

A15: Year 2030: What are you doing to prepare for the future?

Sundar Kumarasamy Northeastern University, MA

slide-40
SLIDE 40 #NACAC17 More than the past I am interested in the future, since that's where I intend to spend the rest of my life .
  • Albert Einstein -
slide-41
SLIDE 41 #NACAC17
slide-42
SLIDE 42 #NACAC17
slide-43
SLIDE 43 #NACAC17 Source: Education Advisory Board (May 28, 2013): Future Students, Future Revenues
slide-44
SLIDE 44 #NACAC17 More sophisticated, debt-averse families Struggling Private Competitors Shrinking Demography Declining Family Incomes Federal and State Policies/ Funding Levels Growing Public University competition Growing price transparency
slide-45
SLIDE 45 #NACAC17 Source: Education Advisory Board (May 28, 2013): Future Students, Future Revenues
slide-46
SLIDE 46 #NACAC17
slide-47
SLIDE 47 #NACAC17
slide-48
SLIDE 48 #NACAC17

Wrods of Cuatoin

Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabridge Uinvervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the litteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a ttoal mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is besauae ocne we laren how to raed we bgien to aargnre the lteerts in our mnid to see waht we epxcet to see. The huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but preecsievs the wrod as a wlohe. We do tihs ucnsoniuscoly wuithot tuhoght.

slide-49
SLIDE 49 #NACAC17

A newspaper is better than a

  • magazine. A seashore is a better

place than a street. At first it is better to run than to walk. Even young children can enjoy it. Once successful, complications are

  • minimal. Birds seldom get too
  • close. Rain, however, soaks in very
  • fast. If there are no complications,

it can be very peaceful. If things break loose from it, however, you

slide-50
SLIDE 50 #NACAC17
slide-51
SLIDE 51 #NACAC17
slide-52
SLIDE 52 #NACAC17
slide-53
SLIDE 53 #NACAC17
slide-54
SLIDE 54 #NACAC17
slide-55
SLIDE 55 #NACAC17
slide-56
SLIDE 56 #NACAC17 Place of Origin 5 Year CAGR Kuwait 27% Brazil 21% Saudi Arabia 16% Iran 15% China 14% India 13% Nigeria 11% Vietnam 8% Spain 8% Venezuela 7% United Kingdom 6% Colombia 6% Indonesia 5% Mexico 5% Malaysia 4% Other 4% Germany 2% France 2% Canada 0.14% Nepal 0.11% Hong Kong
  • 0.3%
Japan
  • 1%
Thailand
  • 2%
Taiwan
  • 2%
Turkey
  • 3%
South Korea
  • 4%
Place of Origin 10 Year CAGR Saudi Arabia 26% China 19% Vietnam 15% Brazil 12% India 8% Nigeria 7% United Kingdom 4% France 3% Nepal 2% Mexico 2% Indonesia 2% Germany 2% Colombia 2% Hong Kong 0.3% Other 0% South Korea
  • 0.2%
Canada
  • 1%
Turkey
  • 1%
Thailand
  • 2%
Taiwan
  • 3%
Japan
  • 7%
5 Year 10 Year 15 Year Place of Origin 15 Year CAGR China 12% India 8% Brazil 5% Mexico 3% United Kingdom 2% South Korea 2% Colombia 1% Canada 0.4% Hong Kong 0.3% Malaysia 0.0% Germany 0.01% Turkey
  • 0.2%
Other
  • 1%
Indonesia
  • 2%
Taiwan
  • 2%
Thailand
  • 3%
Japan
  • 6%
Compound Annual Growth Rate ( CAGR) Source: IIE Open Doors 2016
slide-57
SLIDE 57 #NACAC17 Source: IIE Open Doors 2016 China, 31% India, 16% Saudi Arabia, 6% South Korea, 6% Canada, 3% Vietnam, 2% Taiwan, 2% Brazil, 2% Japan, 2% Mexico, 2% Iran, 1% United Kingdom, 1% Turkey, 1% Nigeria, 1% Germany, 1% Kuwait, 1% Nepal, 1% France, 1% Indonesia, 1% Venezuela, 1% Hong Kong, 1% Malaysia, 1% Colombia, 1% Thailand, 1% Spain, 1% Other , 16%
slide-58
SLIDE 58 #NACAC17
slide-59
SLIDE 59 #NACAC17
slide-60
SLIDE 60 #NACAC17
slide-61
SLIDE 61 #NACAC17
slide-62
SLIDE 62 #NACAC17
slide-63
SLIDE 63 #NACAC17
slide-64
SLIDE 64 #NACAC17
slide-65
SLIDE 65 #NACAC17

100% 50%

slide-66
SLIDE 66 #NACAC17
slide-67
SLIDE 67 #NACAC17
slide-68
SLIDE 68 #NACAC17
slide-69
SLIDE 69 #NACAC17
slide-70
SLIDE 70 #NACAC17

A good hockey player

Wayne Gretzky

plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.

slide-71
SLIDE 71 #NACAC17 http://www.innovationlabs.com/innovation-services/innovation-master-plan-framework/
slide-72
SLIDE 72 #NACAC17

VALUE?

Create Deliver Capture

How Do We

slide-73
SLIDE 73 #NACAC17 edX creates no courses, owns no campuses or hires no faculty.
slide-74
SLIDE 74 #NACAC17
slide-75
SLIDE 75 #NACAC17
slide-76
SLIDE 76 #NACAC17
slide-77
SLIDE 77 #NACAC17
slide-78
SLIDE 78 #NACAC17
slide-79
SLIDE 79 #NACAC17
slide-80
SLIDE 80 #NACAC17
slide-81
SLIDE 81 #NACAC17
slide-82
SLIDE 82 #NACAC17

Key to Creating Sustainable Success

Tuition pricing, net revenue management and tuition discounting Demography and market realities of the university‘s location and position. Overall campus structure & usage for student needs and services. Leadership and talent resources to create sustainable change. Marketing strategies and tactics to reach desired goals. Academic major and program
  • fferings mix and relevance.
Formal and informal processes embedded in the university practices and culture. Price Product Place Promotion Physical Environment Process People
slide-83
SLIDE 83 #NACAC17 http://www.raineight.com
slide-84
SLIDE 84 #NACAC17
slide-85
SLIDE 85 #NACAC17
slide-86
SLIDE 86 #NACAC17

The electric light did not come from the continuous improvement of candles.

  • Oren Harari