High School Graduate Trends WICHE’s Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates, 9 th Ed. Peace Bransberger / knocking.wiche.edu #NACAC17
Fewer Grads in Total; More non-White Grads #NACAC17 Projected number compared to 2012-13, last confirmed year.
Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads 4000 3.44M 3.46M 3.59M Total 3500 3000 2500 1.9M 1.8M 2000 1.7M 1.6M 1.6M White 1500 918 1000 791 Hispanic 654 199 449 Black 466 440 500 285 Private schools Asian/Pacific Isl. 0 American Indian 2007 2013 2025 1992 2032 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 #NACAC17
Regional Variation Avg. Annual Change 2000- 2013- 2013 2025 South 2.6% 0.6% West 2.1% 0.2% Midwest 0.8% -0.4% Northeast 1.6% -0.5% #NACAC17
Growth or Decline Fewer graduates About the same More graduates #NACAC17
South Growth Regions • Additional grads from Texas and Florida account for ~80% of all additional U.S. grads by 2025 • California may have seen its high year, or very near so West • Whether growing or contracting , state trends largely driven by Hispanic grad trends – In California, 60k more Hispanic grads by 2025, then almost that many fewer by 2030s (Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number) #NACAC17
Midwest Regions in Decline • 24 of the U.S. states do not have a new high projected – 14 states have a small new increase between 2013 & 2025, but it doesn't exceed their prior high Northeast – 10 states are in perpetual decline • 16 of the states with little increase or none at all are in the Midwest and Northeast (Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number) #NACAC17
2020 Compared to 2013 2030 Nation: -0.1% Nation: -4.0% by State 2025 Nation: +4.7% #NACAC17 See Knocking pages 20-23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.
Total Graduates, 2013 to 2020 Midwest Northeast South West Fewer About the same More Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2020.
Total Graduates, 2013 to 2025 Midwest Northeast South West Fewer About the same More Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2025.
Total Graduates, 2013 to 2032 Midwest Northeast South West Fewer About the same More Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2032.
Racial/Ethnic Diversity White Fewer White graduates Hispanic bring down the total, Black but there are additional Asian graduates in virtually American Indian every state. Private schools #NACAC17
Increase for Most States in the South White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind. Private #NACAC17 Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
Growth in Western States Mitigated by Slowdown from California White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind. Private #NACAC17 Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
The Midwest: Strong Minority Graduate Increases But Steep Downturn of White Graduates White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind. Private #NACAC17 Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
Decreases for All Northeast States Except New York White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind. Private #NACAC17 Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
Dampening Effect of Lower Male & Minority High School Graduation Rates Male & Female Graduate Projections, forthcoming September 2017 And a few other data points… #NACAC17
First Generation Students Families with Children Ages 0 to 8 in 2012 Children Ages 5 to 17 in 2015 Income Total Parent with Race/ Total Parent with Millions Assoc. or Higher Ethnicity Millions Assoc. or Higher All Families 11.9 47% White 26.9 61% < 200% Fed. 7.9 21% Hispanic 12.1 25% Poverty Level Asian 2.4 70% >= FPL 4.0 68% Black 6.7 35% Source: NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics, Table Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from 104.70, from American Community Survey (ACS) data. 2012 ACS PUMS file. #NACAC17
Students from Lesser Means Income Distribution of Households With Children, Asian U.S., 2010-2014 $350K 1.8M White $300K 20M All Medians $250K Races HHs with children -- All Households $200K Black Hispanic 4.3M 6.6M Distribution (95% of families) $150K Each bar segment is 20% of $91K the families $79K $100K $65K $42K $37K American Community Survey $50K PUMS Five-Year Estimates $0K #NACAC17 State data on State Profiles
Change in Graduates by 2025 Amer. Ind. Asian/Pac.Is. Black & Median Family Income 2014 Hispanic White Difference in HSGs from 2014 to 2024 426K more 138K more from graduates from families with families with higher than lower than average income average income 37K fewer from 100K fewer from families below families above average income average income Median Income by State & Race, Households with Children, 2014
A15: Year 2030: What are you doing to prepare for the future? Jon Boeckenstedt DePaul University, IL #NACAC17
#NACAC17 http://www.wiche.edu
#NACAC17 http://www.wiche.edu
#NACAC17 https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.20.asp?current=yes
Source: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/income_expenditures_poverty_wealth.html Table 691. #NACAC17 Be sure to read notes on data there. For clarity, categories have been merged; for example, data for "White" includes "White Alone" (for 2001 and beyond) and "White" (prior to 2001).
#NACAC17 https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.30.asp?current=yes
#NACAC17 Source: DePaul Admissions and Financial Aid Data
US Household Income Distribution, 2015 11.6% Under $15K 10.5% $15K-$25K 10.0% $25K-$35K 12.7% $35K-$50K 16.7% $50K-$75K 12.1% $75K-$100K 14.1% $100K -$150K 6.2% $150K-$200K 6.1% Over $200K 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% #NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2016/demo/income-poverty/p60-256.html
Unweighted Average Cost Tuition/Fees/Room Board 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Public two-year (In-District) Public four-year (In-State) Public four-year (Out-of- Private Nonprofit Four-Year State) 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 https://www.statista.com/statistics/235651/us-university-attendance-cost/ #NACAC17
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#NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
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#NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
#NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
#NACAC17 https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html
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A15: Year 2030: What are you doing to prepare for the future? Sundar Kumarasamy Northeastern University, MA #NACAC17
More than the past I am interested in the future, since that's where I intend to spend the rest of my life . - Albert Einstein - #NACAC17
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#NACAC17 Source: Education Advisory Board (May 28, 2013): Future Students, Future Revenues
More Struggling Shrinking Declining Federal and Growing Growing price sophisticated, Private Demography Family State Policies/ Public transparency debt-averse Competitors Incomes Funding University families Levels competition #NACAC17
#NACAC17 Source: Education Advisory Board (May 28, 2013): Future Students, Future Revenues
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Wrods of Cuatoin Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabridge Uinvervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the litteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a ttoal mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is besauae ocne we laren how to raed we bgien to aargnre the lteerts in our mnid to see waht we epxcet to see. The huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but preecsievs the wrod as a wlohe. We do tihs ucnsoniuscoly wuithot tuhoght. #NACAC17
A newspaper is better than a magazine. A seashore is a better place than a street. At first it is better to run than to walk. Even young children can enjoy it. Once successful, complications are minimal. Birds seldom get too close. Rain, however, soaks in very fast. If there are no complications, it can be very peaceful. If things #NACAC17 break loose from it, however, you
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