Harbor Transportation Club May 21, 2015 Jeffrey A. Williamson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Harbor Transportation Club May 21, 2015

Jeffrey A. Williamson Statewide Director, California Centers for International Trade Development & Director California State Trade and Export Promotion www.citd.org

Outline

• Introduction
• The 4th wave of globalization
• Exports – interesting facts without a barrage of statistics
• Growth, Consumption and the Massive Shift
• The Digital Economy
• Trade Policy

The Great Recession accelerated a shift in US Exports toward Developing Nations

MSAs with Highest 2013 Export Value aren’t the Fastest Export Growing MSAs

2013 Rank by Total Value of Exports and Percent Increase 2005-13 2013 Rank by Highest % Growth 2005-13

MSA Abbreviation Total Value Rank 2013 2013 Value

• f Exports

(Billions) Percent Increase 2005-13 Los Angeles-Long Beach- Anaheim; CA 1 76.3 74.2% San Francisco; CA 2 25.3 72.1% Riverside; CA 3 9.5 153.6% San Diego; CA 4 17.8 35.6% Sacramento; CA 5 5.7 97.5% Bakersfield; CA 6 3.6 211.3% MSA Abbreviation Percent Increase Rank 05-13 2013 Value of Exports (Billions) Percent Change 05-13 Hanford; CA 1 0.5 371.3% Merced; CA 2 0.9 287.5% Visalia; CA 3 1.1 267.7% Bakersfield; CA 4 3.6 211.3% Madera; CA 5 196.7% Modesto; CA 6 2 181.2%

Growth, Consumption and the Location of Economic Activities

5.6 5.8 8.1 10.3 4.9 14.8 1.6 2.3 1 1.3

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2009 2020 (est)

Estimate Global Consumption Spending of Middle Class (in Trillions US$)

• Source: Brookings Institution (Kaharas H and Gertz G. “New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East”)
• N. America

Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Africa & Middle East Linear (Asia Pacific)

MCKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012.

Emer erging c cities w will c capture m more o e of the g e global G GDP via s simi milar p product s segme ments s shaped by co commo mmon aspirationally-driven en middle a and l lower c classes es

10 consecutive years of double digit growth for California Food and Ag exports to China/HKG

MCKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012.

35 Years 130 Years

and is rapidly accelerating.

Getting the goods to the Customer Physical, Digital and Trade Policy

Physical Infrastructure is Trade

Information Infrastructure is Trade

http://forbesindia.com/blog/digital-navigator/china-a-social-media-country/

Digitization – and Cross Border Trade

• Digital Marketspace is growing rapidly – “Hunting for Treasures” – Tao

Bao

• Online retail is expected to grow 4 times the rate of GDP
• Cross-border online growth is forecast at 7 times GDP
• Digital marketing has been an effective strategy to reach “non-users”

Policy provides access

Policy Issues

• Access to markets
• The “market” will win in the long run…………
• Trade agreements provide Market Access
• Efficient and world-class infrastructure provides Access
• We Need Access!