Harbor Transportation Club May 21, 2015 Jeffrey A. Williamson - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Harbor Transportation Club May 21, 2015 Jeffrey A. Williamson Statewide Director, California Centers for International Trade Development & Director California State Trade and Export Promotion www.citd.org

Outline • Introduction • The 4 th wave of globalization • Exports – interesting facts without a barrage of statistics • Growth, Consumption and the Massive Shift • The Digital Economy • Trade Policy

The Great Recession accelerated a shift in US Exports toward Developing Nations

MSAs with Highest 2013 Export Value aren’t the Fastest Export Growing MSAs 2013 Rank by Highest % Growth 2013 Rank by Total Value of Exports and Percent Increase 2005-13 2005-13 Total Percent 2013 Value of Value 2013 Value Percent MSA Increase Exports Percent Rank of Exports Increase Abbreviation Rank 05-13 (Billions) Change 05-13 MSA Abbreviation 2013 (Billions) 2005-13 Los Angeles-Long Beach- Hanford; CA 1 0.5 371.3% Anaheim; CA 1 76.3 74.2% Merced; CA 2 0.9 287.5% San Francisco; CA 2 25.3 72.1% Visalia; CA 3 1.1 267.7% Riverside; CA 3 9.5 153.6% Bakersfield; San Diego; CA 4 17.8 35.6% CA 4 3.6 211.3% Sacramento; CA 5 5.7 97.5% Madera; CA 5 0 196.7% Bakersfield; CA 6 3.6 211.3% Modesto; CA 6 2 181.2%

Growth, Consumption and the Location of Economic Activities

Estimate Global Consumption Spending of Middle Class (in Trillions US$) - Source: Brookings Institution (Kaharas H and Gertz G. “New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East”) 16 14.8 14 12 10.3 10 8.1 8 5.8 5.6 6 4.9 4 2.3 1.6 2 1.3 1 0 2009 2020 (est) N. America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Africa & Middle East Linear (Asia Pacific)

Emer erging c cities w will c capture m more o e of the g e global G GDP via s simi milar p product s segme ments s shaped by co commo mmon aspirationally-driven en middle a and l lower c classes es MCKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012.

10 consecutive years of double digit growth for California Food and Ag exports to China/HKG

and is rapidly accelerating . 35 Years 130 Years MCKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012.

Getting the goods to the Customer Physical, Digital and Trade Policy

Physical Infrastructure is Trade

Information Infrastructure is Trade

http://forbesindia.com/blog/digital-navigator/china-a-social-media-country/

Digitization – and Cross Border Trade • Digital Marketspace is growing rapidly – “Hunting for Treasures” – Tao Bao • Online retail is expected to grow 4 times the rate of GDP • Cross-border online growth is forecast at 7 times GDP • Digital marketing has been an effective strategy to reach “non-users”

Policy provides access

Policy Issues • Access to markets • The “market” will win in the long run………… • Trade agreements provide Market Access • Efficient and world-class infrastructure provides Access • We Need Access!