Growth From A Focused Portfolio Forward Looking Statements This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Growth From A Focused Portfolio Forward Looking Statements This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
August 2016 Growth From A Focused Portfolio Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included herein, including, without limitation,
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Forward Looking Statements
This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included herein, including, without limitation, statements regarding future plans and objectives of Canacol Energy Ltd. (“Canacol” or the “Corporation”), are forward‐looking statements that involve various risks, assumptions, estimates, and uncertainties. These statements reflect the current internal projections, expectations or beliefs of Canacol and are based on information currently available to the
- Corporation. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, and
actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such
- statements. All of the forward looking statements contained in this presentation are qualified
by these cautionary statements and the risk factors described above. Furthermore, all such statements are made as of the date this presentation is given and Canacol assumes no
- bligation to update or revise these statements.
Barrels of Oil Equivalent Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated using the conversion factor of 5.7 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) of natural gas being equivalent to one barrel of oil. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 5.7 Mcf:1 bbl (barrel) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Acres Acres represents gross acres Production and Reserves Production represents net before royalty Reserves represent 2P reserves and before tax NPV‐10 as of December 31, 2015 Exploration Resource Potential Exploration resource potential represent management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverable resource potential, unless indicated otherwise USD All dollar amounts are shown in US dollars, unless indicated otherwise
3 Ecuador
70 140 280 420 560 Km
Colombia
- S. Pacific Ocean
Canacol
Supply‐scarce Caribbean natural gas market
- Dual‐listed
TSX and BVC
- Enterprise value
US $717 MM
- Exploration success (‘08→)
65%
- Insider ownership
~25%
- ’16e guidance
16 – 17,000 boepd $135 MM EBITDAX
- YE 2015 2P reserves
79 MMboe
- Pre‐tax NPV‐10
US $1.3 B
- 2P pre‐tax value/share
CDN $6.51
- Y/Y reserves replacement
1,103%
- 2P F&D cost
$2.85/boe
- Long reserves life
~10 yrs.
- + Mid‐year 2016 2P reserves
5 MMboe
- Substantial exploration
1,045 MMboe resource potential(1)
- Blocks / gross acres
23 / 3.4 MM
Focused Portfolio
(1) Management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverable resource potential Shale Oil Light Oil Light Oil Natural Gas
4
3 Key Portfolio Components
Large gas reserves underpin production and cash flow for a decade
(1) Excludes mid‐year 2016 reserves update for Oboe 1 (2) Management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverable resource potential (3) DeGolyer & MacNaugton unrisked mean prospective oil resources, effective June ‘14
17 65 14 '09 '11 '13 '15
82% gas
+52% CAGR in 2P reserves
- Dry natural gas – [stable cash flow]
- ‘12 and ‘14
2 acquisitions
- ‘13 → present
3 large discoveries
- YE ‘15 2P reserves
372 BCF (65 MMboe)
- + Mid‐year ‘16 reserves
28 BCF (5 MMboe)
- Exploration resource
>3 TCF potential(2)
- Light oil optionality – [flexible approach]
- 2P reserves
14 MMbls
- LLA 23 exploration
33 MMbls resource potential(1)
- Large shale oil opportunity – [call option]
- Exploration resource
458 MMbls potential(3)
79(1)
7 8 11 18 35 43
18 20 23
2P reserves in MMboe
- il gas
Over the last 5‐yrs, Canacol has discovered more natural gas than every other Colombian explorer, combined
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Strong Sales Growth
+27% projected CAGR in corporate sales
- Produced >20 MMboe since inception
- Operator of all production and facilities in Colombia
- Natural gas
100% avg. WI
- Light oil
91% avg. WI
Expressed in boepd 10,933 16,500 19,521 40,000+
1Q '16 '16e avg. Current Mid '18 ‐ after pipeline
Natural gas 80% Tariff oil 8% Light oil 12%
‘16 guidance and sales mix
- Recent, large natural gas discoveries driving
shift from oil to natural gas
- Budgeted $40/ Bbl WTI, $135 MM EBITDAX
- +$10/ BBL in WTI results in +$4MM EBITDAX
88% insensitive to oil volatility
May‐Jun ’16 cash sales(1)
+27%
(1) Includes deferred revenue cash receipts
Canacol Doesn’t Lose Sleep Over Oil Prices
Pursuit of dry natural gas that features stable pricing
Best gas pricing
Quarterly average MMbtu
$0 $3 $6 $9 $12 Mar '14 Jun '14 Sep '14 Dec '14 Mar '15 Jun '15 Sep '15 Dec '15 Mar '16 2016e
Canacol US Canada
LT gas contracts with price escalation
1 2 3 4 5
$30 $15
WTI oil price sensitivity
$60 $45
$0/Bbl Oil prices at zero? Canacol generates ~$100MM EBITDAX
EBITDAX in US$ MM
$107 MM
$118 $130 $142 $153 MM
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Canacol‐Gas Ranks #1
7 $32 $36 $36 $38 $39 $41 $42 $43 $44 $47 $50 $52 $54 $55 $56 $58 $59 $63 $65 Karnes Trough Eagle Ford condensate SE SK Viewfield Bakken oil Tower Motney oil Gordondale Motney oil
- E. Pembina Cardium oil
Sanish and Parshall Bakken oil Ferguson Bakken/Exshaw oil Permian Midland Basin Wolfcamp (deep) oil Permian Delaware Basin Wolfcamp (tier 1) oil
- Ft. Berthold Bakken / Three Forks oil
STACK Maramec / Woodford Oil Eagle Ford Black oil SCOOP Woodford oil McKenzie County Bakken oil Tuscaloosa Marine Shale oil Permian Midland Basin Wolfcamp (shallow) oil Permian Delaware Basin Bone Spring oil Williams County Bakken oil Mckenzie/Williams Three Forks oil
Mid‐cycle break even costs ‐ $50/bbl WTI, $2.75/Mcf
$/bbl
Source: Scotia Capital Playbook, October 2015 Barclays North American E&P research
- Captured ~ 40% of all E&P capital
invested from ‘09 to present
- N.A. shale oil and gas now
largely uneconomic
- Enter Canacol
- Breakeven < $5.00/boe
Canacol‐gas < $5.00/boe
A Leader In E&P Capital Efficiency
Participate in our capex‐light growth
- Peers spent 8x more money to generate the
same production increase
- Peers drilled 9x more wells
- Canacol is a leader in capital efficiency
- One well / yr. to maintain current gas production
- $4.6 MM D&A cost per well
- ‘16e: spend $58 MM to generate $135 MM EBITDAX
(1) Range based on Brent oil price sensitivity: $35/Bbl to $55/Bbl
$97 $807 Canacol‐gas Peer Avg.
‘13 → ’15 cumulative capex
$MM Canacol‐gas Peer avg. Capex, x‐acquisitions ($ MM) $97 $807 Production increase (boe/d) 10M 10M Wells drilled 8 73 1Q ‘16 netback ($/boe) $27 $12 ‘16 outlook ($/boe) Stable $26 Volatile $9 ‐ $28(1)
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Natural Gas Demand Greater Than Supply
Canacol Gas pipeline La Creciente
Cartagena
Ballena Chuchupa
Caribbean Sea
Cerro Matoso mine
1 2
Barranquilla
3
15 30 60 90 120 Km
Clarinete Oboe
Jobo facility
- Supply decreasing 20% / yr. from coastal fields
- Three mature fields in blow‐down
[‐100 MMcf/d per year decline](1)
- Demand increasing 3% / yr. for the past 10‐yrs.
and projected to grow at 3‐4% through 2026
- +65 MMcf/d from new 2016 pipeline
- Flows north / south
65 / 25 MMcf/d south
- Total production
90 MMcf/d
- Gas EBITDAX/yr.
$135 MM
- +100 MMcf/d from planned 2018 pipeline
- Total production
190 MMcf/d
- Gas EBITDAX/yr.
$310 MM
- By 2020e, Canacol will supply ~42% of the coast
1 2 3 Chuchupa Ballena La Creciente
2016 pipeline
65 MMcf/d
(1) Average annual decline for each of the trailing 2 years 2018 pipeline
25 MMcf/d 9
4 fields 100% WI ~785k acres
Palmer Nelson
+100 MMcf/d
Epic Gas Deficit On Colombia’s Coast
Plan to boost gas production to solve supply shortfall
- The Caribbean Coast had a balanced gas
supply‐demand profile for decades
- 3 mature fields in blow‐down
- 100 MMcf/d per year decline(1)
- Canacol began planning in 2012
- ‘12 and ‘14
2 acquisitions
- ‘14 → present
3 large discoveries
- ‘15 2P reserves
372 BCF
- ‘16 mid‐year reserves
+28 BCF
- Plan to 8x Canacol‐gas
- Solve 77% of the Caribbean’s lost supply
- Goal to backfill 165 MMcf/d of the 212 MMcf/d lost
- 127 MMcf/d of additional opportunity
‐ 200 400 600
'15 '16e '17e '18e '19e '20e
Solving Colombia’s gas supply deficit
Gas supply‐demand forecast in MMcf/d
582 265 477
Supply from three mature fields
‐212 MMcf/d
Supply from Canacol
+165 MMcf/d
25 190 455
Source: Industry and Government Studies
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Supply shortfall
127 MMcf/d
(1) Average annual decline for each of the trailing 2 years
Canacol’s Cluster Of Gas Discoveries
Robust reserves + the quest for exploration upside
Prospects / leads Fields & discoveries Canacol’s fields & discoveries
> 3 TCF of exploration upside(1)
- 100% WI
- ~785k acres
- 4 gas fields
- 3 of 4 fields booked
Upper zone GWC ‐6,410 ft subsea
Date Test
(MMcf/d)
Pay
(Ft.)
Porosity (%) Clarinete‐1 Dec ‘14 44 149 26% Clarinete‐2ST Sep ‘15 30 127 23% Oboe‐1 Mar ‘16 66 158 23% Average 47 145 24%
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(1)Management’s estimate of net unrisked recoverable resource potential
Esperanza 100% VIM 21 100% VIM 5 100% 3D seismic
Nelson Oboe Nelson‐6 Nispero‐1
Cienaga de Oro time structure map
Palmer
Jobo
Clarinete
10km
- ‘15 2P reserves 372 BCF
- ‘16 Oboe add
28 BCF
- ~50 prospects / leads
3km
Oboe‐1
Subcrop edge
Clarinete‐1 Clarinete‐2ST
- Using 3D seismic data,
Canacol is mitigating exploration risk by applying AVO seismic attribute analysis
- Nispero‐1 drilling underway
- Targeting CDO sandstone
reservoirs sealed by Porquero shale
- 40 Bcf EUR unrisked
resource potential $4.6MM cost (D&A)
Large Resource Potential At Esperanza
Reduce exploration risk with the application of AVO technology
12 12 3D seismic image
Sucre‐2 Nispero‐1
N S
Top CDO depth structure map
AVO extraction: Top CDO (magenta marker) to Top CDO +25ms
500 M ESPERANZA VIM‐5
AVO seismic attribute anomaly
N S
PLIOCENE UNC BASEMENT
AVO Events
NISPERO‐1
A B
- Potential for new gas pool at Nelson
- Up to 62 ft. reservoir net pay encountered
in existing Nelson wells
- Nelson‐6 to spud after Nispero‐1
- Targeting shallow CDO reservoir sandstones
- 31 Bcf EUR unrisked resource potential
- $4.6MM D&A cost per well
13
Nelson‐5 Middle Porquero petrophysical interpretation
GWC‐5500’TVDSS
Nelson‐3 Nelson‐2 Nelson‐6 Nelson‐4 Nelson‐5
Gross Thickness 153 ft Net Pay 62 ft Porosity 31%
B A NELSON‐6 AVO Events
Porquero net pay map (ft)
A B
Gas Opportunities Continue To Multiply
Potential new pool at Nelson field – Porquero formation
Nelson Field (Porquero Fm.)
Area 640 acres
- Avg. Porosity
29% GIIP 44 Bcf
- Five light oil discoveries made along Rancho
Hermoso fault trend
- Exceptional on‐block track record for
exploration success (83%, 5/6 wells)
- Three additional trends remain undrilled
- Multiple prospects are drill‐ready
- At $50/Bbl+ WTI
- Target four drill ready prospects situated
along flow line for short and immediate tie‐in e.g. Pumara prospect
- Significant upside in success case
Successful Exploration on Block LLA‐23
With a lot more running room
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Prospect/Leads Wells Gross Unrisked EUR (MMbbl)
3D prospects 13 20 Leads 5 16 Total 18 36
Las Maracas ~12 MMbls Macarenas ~6 MMbls Cravo E ~8 MMbls Cravo S ~9 MMbls
Labrad
- r
3 2 1
91% WI >110k acres
LLA 23
Rancho Hermoso Maltes Tigro Pantro Leono Labrador
Labrad
- r
’17 Pumara Prospect Canacol’s fields & discoveries
Prospects Leads 3 Opportunities trends to repeat 3D seismic Competitor oil fields Leono‐Pointer fluids flow line Pointer CPF
1
‘17 Pumara Prospect
On Pumara‐1 well success case, targeting 5k bopd from 3 wells
15
SE NW
C1 C7 BARCO UBAQUE PALEOZOIC
500 m
NW SE
Pumara‐1 (Exploration location) Pumara‐A (Appraisal well) Pumara‐B (Appraisal well)
- Fault dependent anticlinal closure
- Mapped on 3D seismic
- Primary targets: Ubaque & Gacheta
- Secondary targets: Mirador, Barco and C7
- 4 MMbls unrisked EUR resource potential
- $3.8MM D&A well cost
Ubaque TVDSS map Inline 197 over Pumara
- World class shale oil
- Source rock to 2.3 trillion barrels discovered in
Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela(1)
- Comparable or superior characteristics to the
Bakken and Eagle Ford (thickness, porosity, TOC pressure gradients)
- Second largest shale oil land position behind
Ecopetrol in Colombia
- 7 blocks
749k net acres
- Potential
458 MMbls of audited unrisked prospective resource potential
- NPV‐10
$1.3 B(2)
- Early indications are positive
- Farmed out acreage to Super Majors (‘11 – ‘12)
- Two wells drilled de‐risked play (‘12 – ’15)
- First frac planned this year by Conoco
- Ideal location in producing hydrocarbon basin
Shale Oil Opportunity In Colombia
16
650 km
Oil Fields sourced from La Luna Middle Magdalena Valley Basin (MMV) La Luna shale deposition limit
Orinoco heavy oil belt
Venezuela Colombia Ecuador (1) James 2000, Journal of Petroleum Geology (2) Only three of Canacol’s seven blocks
Oil Exploration Upside
Light oil production upside forecast (unrisked)
(bbl/d) 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1 2 3 4
- Large light oil prospects and leads
inventory
- Dial up or down with oil price environment
- Light oil forecast
- 3x production from drill ready prospects
- >2x production from remaining prospects
and leads
Remaining Prospects (LLA‐23/VMM‐2) Drill Ready Prospects (LLA‐23/VMM‐2) Base Production (LLA‐23/Ecuador) Years
17
Projecting 60%+ Drop In Debt Multiple
$MM
Loan Drawn Terms Final Payment BNP $200 $180 L+4.75% Sep ‘19 Apollo $100 $75 L+8.50% Dec ‘19
'16 Dec '17 '18 Sep '19 Dec '19
BNP Apollo Start: Eight equal installments
- Debt profile
3.8x 3.4x 2.8x 2.6x 2.1x 1.4x Dec '15 Mar '16 Jun '16e Sep '16e Dec '16e '17e
Lower debt multiple to unlock Canacol’s equity?
Debt multiple to trailing 12‐month EBITDAX
- ’16e guidance
16 – 17,000 boepd $58 MM capex $135 MM ebitdax
18
A Rare Dislocation in Equity Value
19
in MM, except /share amounts
TSX share price (7/25/16) CDN $3.99 FD shares outstanding(1) 163 Market capitalization(2) US $491 Net debt(3) $226 Enterprise value US $717 Cash(3) $30
Buying Canacol at a discount to the value of our existing gas contracts
BT NPV‐10, US $MM CDN $/share
(1) Includes in‐the‐money options based on CDN 3.99/share price (2) Converted from CDN → USD exchange rate (0.76) as of 7/25/16 (3) As of 3/31/16
Stable production under LT contracts
$717 $1,165 $193 $2,124
EV 2P gas 2p oil Exploration
Investment Opportunity
Measuring 2015 – 2016e
TSX: CNE | BVC: CNE.C
Canacol Peer avg. North America Production growth +63% +17% +11% Capex $ growth ‐29% +15% +6% Natural gas pricing ($/MMbtu) $5.64 fixed ~$5.00 volatile $1.58 volatile Sensitivity to oil volatility 12% >90% 88% Gas netback ($/boe) $26 $12 $9 EBITDAX growth 100% < 15% < 10% G&A reduction 40% Debt multiple Decrease Increase Increase F&D cost $2.85 ~$20
- Oil price trading at zero?
- Canacol generates over $100 MM in EBITDAX
- 2018 pipeline to boost EBITDAX: $135 → $310 MM / yr.
20
Source: corporate filings and Barclays North American E&P research