Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Jef Dams (jefdams@vub.ac.be) Elga - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Jef Dams (jefdams@vub.ac.be) Elga Salvadore Prof. Dr. Okke Batelaan 25/10/2010 Predicting Impact of Climate Change on 1 Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems
25/10/2010 1 Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems
Jef Dams (jefdams@vub.ac.be) Elga Salvadore
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Future groundwater system?
– Land-use change – Climate change
Importance of groundwater:
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Source of drinking water
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Maintaining the ecological value of natural reserves
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River ecology
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…
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Scheldt basin Country borders
formed by Neogene sand deposits with a thickness up till 200 m
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38% 27% 19% 11%
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Reference Climate (1960-1991) 28 climate scenarios (2071-2100)
CLIMATE CHANGE MODELLING
PRUDENCE
World visions Climate models 28 recharge scenarios (2071-2100)
WATER BALANCE MODELLING (WetSpa) ...
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River head scenarios
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Groundwater flow and head (2071-2100)
GROUNDWATER MODELLING (MODFLOW) ...
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PRUDENCE database
1 PET station (Uccle) and 4 Precipitation stations: Turnhout Geel Rijkevorsel Viersel-Pulle
CCI-HYDR pertubation tool (Ntegeka and Willems, 2009) Analyses montly changes between control – scenario runs
A2 B2
ECHAM4/OPYC HadAM3H HadRM3P ARPEGE HadCM3
RCAO HIRAM RACMO CHRM HadRM3P REMO ARPEGE CLM PROMES
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WetSpa (Liu et al., 2004)
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5 10 15 20 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge (mc/s) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Precipiatition (mm/day) Precipitation Q observed Q Simulated
Validation river discharge 1996
& VALIDATION
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Baseflow (m³/s) Year
Baseflow WetSpa Baseflow SWAT-baseflow filter
WetSpa simulated baseflow vs filterd baseflow (Kleine Nete – Grobbendonk)
Discharge (m³/s) Precipitation (mm/day)
REFERENCE FUTURE 1971-2100
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Conceptual MODFLOW model – 2 layer – Transient: 768 half-monthly stressperiods (32 years) – Wetspa recharge map and river head for each stressperiod
Aquifer code (HCOV) Aquifer name Avg. hydraulic conductivity (m/d) 0100 The Quaternary aquifer systems 4.8 0220 The clay-sand-complex
9.4 0230 The Pleistocene and Pliocene aquifer 20.5 0240 The Pliocene clayey layer 0.1 0250 The Miocene aquifer system 14.1
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AVG MLGL MHGL MSGL
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– Coupling of water balance models - groundwater model – Climate change reduced recharge, groundwater head and baseflow – Impact of climate change on groundwater level larger on interfluves – Important inter-annual changes caused by climate change
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jefdams@vub.ac.be
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Average groundwater discharge quantity Change in groundwater discharge quantity
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Average groundwater discharge frequency Change in groundwater discharge frequency
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Climate change WetSpa MODFLOW WATER BALANCE GOUNDWATER Transient
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CONTROL SCENARIO SCENARIO GCM RCM SMHI SMHI-MPI-A2 A2 ECHAM4/OPYC RCAO SMHI-MPI-B2 B2 ECHAM4/OPYC SMHI-HC-22 A2 HadAM3H SMHI-A2 A2 HadAM3H SMHI-B2 B2 HadAM3H KNMI KNMI A2 HadAM3H RACMO METNO METNO-A2 A2 HadAM3H HIRHAM METNO-B2 B2 HadAM3H DMI DMI-S25 A2 HadAM3H HIRHAM DMI-ecsc-A2 A2 ECHAM4/OPYC DMI-ecsc-B2 B2 ECHAM4/OPYC DMI-HS1 A2 HadAM3H DMI-HS2 A2 HadAM3H DMI-HS3 A2 HadAM3H ETH ETH A2 HadAM3H CHRM HC HC-adhfa A2 HadAM3P HadRM3P HC-adhfe A2 HadAM3P HC-adhff A2 HadAM3P HC-adhfd-B2 B2 HadAM3P MPI MPI-3005 A2 HadAM3H REMO MPI-3006 A2 HadAM3H CNRM CNRM-DC9 B2 ARPEGE ARPEGE CNRM-DE5 B2 HadCM3 CNRM-DE6 A2 ARPEGE CNRM-DE7 A2 ARPEGE GKSS GKSS-SN A2 HadAM3H CLM UCM UCM-A2 A2 HadAM3H PROMES UCM-B2 B2 HadAM3H
IPCC SRES scenarios: A2 and B2 GCM: ECHAM4-OPYC / HadAM3H / HadAM3P / ARPEGE RCM: RCAO / RACMO / HIRHAM / CHRM / HadRM3P / REMO / ARPEGE / CLM / PROMES