Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Jef Dams (jefdams@vub.ac.be) Elga Salvadore Prof. Dr. Okke Batelaan 25/10/2010 Predicting Impact of Climate Change on 1 Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems
Introduction & objective Importance of groundwater: – Source of drinking water – Maintaining the ecological value of natural reserves – River ecology – … Future groundwater system? – Land-use change – Climate change Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 2
Study area Scheldt basin Country borders Kleine Nete Part of the Scheldt Basin Area of 580 km² Mostly sand soil (72%) Most important aquifer formed by Neogene sand deposits with a thickness up till 200 m Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 3
Study area Land-use Flat area, average slope of 0.36% 11% 38% 19% 27% Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 4
Overview methodology CLIMATE CHANGE WATER BALANCE GROUNDWATER MODELLING MODELLING MODELLING (WetSpa) (MODFLOW) 28 recharge scenarios Groundwater flow and 28 climate scenarios Reference Climate (2071-2100) head (2071-2100) (1960-1991) (2071-2100) ... ... time time ... ... time time ... ... PRUDENCE River head scenarios ... World visions Climate models time ... Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 5
Climate change Scenarios 1 PET station (Uccle) and PRUDENCE database 4 Precipitation stations: A2 B2 Turnhout Rijkevorsel ECHAM4/OPYC HadAM3H HadRM3P ARPEGE HadCM3 RCAO RACMO HIRAM CHRM HadRM3P Geel REMO ARPEGE PROMES CLM Viersel-Pulle CCI-HYDR pertubation tool (Ntegeka and Willems, 2009) Analyses montly changes between control – scenario runs Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 6
Hydrological modelling WetSpa (Liu et al., 2004) Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 7
Hydrological modelling & VALIDATION FUTURE 1971-2100 REFERENCE WetSpa simulated baseflow vs filterd baseflow Validation river discharge 1996 (Kleine Nete – Grobbendonk) Baseflow WetSpa 25 0 14 Baseflow SWAT-baseflow filter 10 Precipitation (mm/day) 12 20 Discharge (m³/s) 20 Baseflow (m³/s) Precipiatition (mm/day) 10 Discharge (mc/s) 30 15 Precipitation 8 Q observed 40 Q Simulated 6 10 50 4 60 5 2 70 0 0 80 Feb Mar Apr May Aug Sep Nov Jan Jun Jul Oct Dec Year Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 8
Groundwater modelling Conceptual MODFLOW model – 2 layer – Transient: 768 half-monthly stressperiods (32 years) – Wetspa recharge map and river head for each stressperiod Avg. Aquifer hydraulic code Aquifer name conductivity (HCOV) (m/d) The Quaternary aquifer 0100 systems 4.8 The clay-sand-complex 0220 of the Kempen 9.4 The Pleistocene and 0230 Pliocene aquifer 20.5 The Pliocene clayey 0240 layer 0.1 The Miocene aquifer 0250 system 14.1 Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 9
Results climate scenarios Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 10
Results groundwater recharge Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 11
Results groundwater level Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 12
Results groundwater level AVG MLGL MHGL MSGL Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 13
Results groundwater flux Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 14
Conclusions – Coupling of water balance models - groundwater model – Climate change reduced recharge, groundwater head and baseflow – Impact of climate change on groundwater level larger on interfluves – Important inter-annual changes caused by climate change Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 15
Questions? jefdams@vub.ac.be Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 16
Results groundwater flux Average groundwater discharge quantity Change in groundwater discharge quantity Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 17
Results groundwater flux Average groundwater discharge frequency Change in groundwater discharge frequency Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 18
Results groundwater flux Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 19
Overview Transient Climate change WATER BALANCE WetSpa GOUNDWATER MODFLOW Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems 20 Pag. 25/10/2010
Climate scenarios CONTROL SCENARIO SCENARIO GCM RCM SMHI SMHI-MPI-A2 A2 ECHAM4/OPYC RCAO IPCC SRES scenarios: SMHI-MPI-B2 B2 ECHAM4/OPYC A2 and B2 SMHI-HC-22 A2 HadAM3H SMHI-A2 A2 HadAM3H SMHI-B2 B2 HadAM3H GCM: KNMI KNMI A2 HadAM3H RACMO METNO METNO-A2 A2 HadAM3H HIRHAM ECHAM4-OPYC / HadAM3H / HadAM3P / METNO-B2 B2 HadAM3H ARPEGE DMI DMI-S25 A2 HadAM3H HIRHAM DMI-ecsc-A2 A2 ECHAM4/OPYC DMI-ecsc-B2 B2 ECHAM4/OPYC RCM: DMI-HS1 A2 HadAM3H DMI-HS2 A2 HadAM3H RCAO / RACMO / HIRHAM / CHRM / HadRM3P / DMI-HS3 A2 HadAM3H REMO / ARPEGE / CLM / PROMES ETH ETH A2 HadAM3H CHRM HC HC-adhfa A2 HadAM3P HadRM3P HC-adhfe A2 HadAM3P HC-adhff A2 HadAM3P HC-adhfd-B2 B2 HadAM3P MPI MPI-3005 A2 HadAM3H REMO MPI-3006 A2 HadAM3H CNRM CNRM-DC9 B2 ARPEGE ARPEGE CNRM-DE5 B2 HadCM3 CNRM-DE6 A2 ARPEGE CNRM-DE7 A2 ARPEGE GKSS GKSS-SN A2 HadAM3H CLM UCM UCM-A2 A2 HadAM3H PROMES UCM-B2 B2 HadAM3H Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Dependent Terrestrial Ecosystems Pag. 25/10/2010 21
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