Greg Gust gregory.gust@noaa.gov NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND 20 March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Greg Gust gregory.gust@noaa.gov NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND 20 March 2019

2019 RRWMB and FDRWG 21st Annual Joint Conference, Moorhead MN

Extreme Continentality!

We are Land Locked...

 Farthest from the moderating affects of oceans.  Battle ground of extreme airmasses (arctic/tropical).  Highest annual, seasonal, weekly...

...and diurnal variability in Temp/Precip.

What are MN’s record hottest and record coldest Temps?

93F/79F

117F

92F/82F

117F

90F/86F

115F

94F/81F

113F

96F/82F

120F

87F/84F

110F

90F/81F

105F

95F/88F

134F

95F/83F

116F

91F/89F

131F

92F/81F

113F

95F/75F

107F

83F/73F

87F

82F/73F

86F

99F/81F

118F

19 July 2011

A Northern Plains Extreme Heat Episode…

Tx = Max Temp (F) TDx = Max DewPt HIx = Mx Heat Index

Legend:

Tx/TDx

HIx

*note: HIx did not always

• ccur at Tx and/or at TDx.

90F/83F

113F

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 2009 1997 1897 2011 1969 2006 2010 2001 1989 1979 40.84 39.72 39.10 38.77 37.34 37.13 36.99 36.69 35.39 34.93

Red River at Fargo, ND

2011 Peak Ranks 4th in 111 Years of Record

29,500 cfs

2011 Exceedance Probability (.02 -.01)

• Apr. 9, 2011

26,200 cfs

Original analysis courtesy of Chris LaVeau, USGS Office, Grand Forks ND

Red River at Fargo, ND

1 2 3 4 1979 2006 2001 1997 2010 2009 2011

0.92 1.39 1.61 1.90 2.09 2.53 3.20

Million Acre-ft 05054000 Annual Volume of Water (Oct.-Sept.)

Missouri River flood pix… near Omaha

• Spr. 2011

[Current as of 8pm 20 Mar 2019]

In Summary… 2011 saw record Water Year flows along all Northern Plains river systems, including the Red and Souris, (and Assiniboine) Rivers, flowing into Manitoba and Hudson’s Bay …plus Missouri, Mississippi, and Ohio Rivers, flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.

2011 Flooding Issues

Over the Short or Long Run… Our RRB has a Highly Variable Annual Precipitation!

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

13

Fargo Clay Soil

Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU, Photo by John Nowatski South of Red River Valley Fairgrounds August 22, 2012

From 2011 Flood to 2012 Drought

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

14 2.33 2.25 4.2 2.85 1.5 5 5.2 5.9 1.84 7.05

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% SWE (inches) Percent Runoff

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) vs Runoff Efficiency

SWE

Antelope Creek ND 2004-2013

2009 2011 2010

Mike DeWeese, NCRFC

2013

[Then 2012 Drought to 2013 Flood]

So what went wrong in 2013?

Two Things:

• 1. The latest/slowest thaw in 130 years!
• 2. The ground thawed, allowing infiltration…

Lessons learned from Jody’s Talk on Wednesday: Understanding Conflict!

From Chad Engels, Moore Engineering... Note the addition of several recent NDAWN/USGS sponsored deep soil moisture and temperature stations!

9 of 16 New NDAWN/USGS soil Temp/Moisture stations in the RRB

The Use of Seasonal-Scale Climate Tools as aids in Determining Snowmelt Flood Risk

Steve Buan, NOAA/NCRFC Chanhassen MN

Poster 6 Your Photo

Climate tools help move us from a Possibility to a Probability to a “Number”

...in the hydrologic outlook and forecast process.

From AHPS, first fielded here in FY2000 Through HEFS, spreading basin-wide now Climate Data and Outlooks help us to define and illustrate our shared Risk!

And welcome to my hydrologic nightmare: Fargo ND!

1. 2. 3.

The problem of moving from a probabilistic Outlook, weeks in advance… to the deterministic Forecast, xx days in advance.

?

Tough to extend the Forecast more than 7 days into the future… so much “noise”

[as used in AHPS Probabilities]

[as used in developmental HEFS]

An ECCC and NOAA Bilateral agreement “project” addresses cross-border collaboration and coordination of alerts for extremes of Heat and Cold

Gregory Gust - Warning Coordination Meteorologist,

NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND

The current NCEP process uses reforecast-calibrated GEFS to derive a full probability distribution function (PDF), which allows one to determine probabilities of multiple element thresholds. But... It’s for internal NCEP access only! (re: Dan Collins et al)

Used in NCEP Day 8-14 Prob Hazards  NEW  At our request, Melissa Ou and others at NCEP are working on expanded temp and precip

• ptions (maybe winds-n-dewpt too?)...

...for (eventual) Field Office Access and Use! Expanded Area: AK/HI and Canada

Expanded Forecast Options, for Public Health Emphasis!

May 2018

From yesterday, 3/20/19, the Week-2 Extremes Tool points to an increased risk of higher than normal precipitation (still less than an inch) around the 28th and 29th.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/extremesTool.php

With the risk for Min Temps below 32F very low on Day 8 (3/28)… This means overnight thaw and movement of water into streams. But much higher after Day 10 (3/30 into 4/03)… which shuts the thaw back down.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/extremesTool.php

With the risk for Min Temps below 32F very low on Day 8 (3/28)… This means overnight thaw and movement of water into streams. But much higher after Day 10 (3/30 into 4/03)… which shuts the thaw back down.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/extremesTool.php

Drought to Flood, or Flood to Drought?

the latest Spring Flood Outlook… and maybe storms!?

Greg Gust gregory.gust@noaa.gov NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND 21 March 2019

Bottom Line up Front:

• First half of March has been Merciless, w/two nasty wet storms.
• Top 10 runoff year in now expected. Expect to see lots of water

moving across the landscape towards the rivers.

• Moderate to Major River Flooding is nearly guaranteed,

especially along and near the mainstem Red.

• Good News: This week… still an ideal/slow thaw cycle.
• Not Good: Weekend showers; next week see-saw, stormy?

Flood Risk by Category at River/Lake Forecast Points

Risk is up another notch. Nearly everybody’s in the pool now!

For this update… So far, for 2019, by Ingredient:

• 1. Fall Moisture was High.
• 2. Streamflow is Normal.
• 3. Frost is Deep.
• 4. Snowpack is Very High.
• 5. Snow water is Very High.

(Snowpack and SWE are now approaching extreme!)

• 6. Spring Thaw is Late.
• Favors fast thaw cycle.
• Late favors more rain.
• 7. Spring Rain Risk is Up.

The Far North RRB was still Abnormally Dry at freeze-up …and not as extreme for snowfall !!

Moisture last 7 days was high: 1.5 to 2 in., Fargo and points south and east

Moisture last 7 days was high all over… and could have been a lot worse!

Total seasonal snowfall to date is quite high…

73.3 59.1

Snow Water Equiv (SWE) is BIG… Top 10 Ranking (of 120+ years) Much of the RRB is now in the 90th percentile for SWE! Good News: We’re not in the 99th percentile!!

We’re not Anywhere near ‘97 and ‘09 levels… Yet this Year!

4”+

This is the amount of total moisture, rain and snow… For the Water Year beginning October 1st... Through now. To date, Grand Forks has had 7.44 inches of moisture, (3.2” above normal) Fargo-Moorhead has had 8.38 inches of moisture, (3.7” above normal)

‘97 and ’09 just had too much Snow/Water in the System!

Above Normal - Spring 1997 Above Normal - Spring 2009

7+ 7+

Excess Precipitation from Oct 1st through Apr 15th was higher in 2009 than 1997…

• But runoff was earlier, late March in 2009, versus mid-April in 1997
• While 1997 had more carry over water from the previous Water Year

Perspective across recent RRV floods

Note: This compares WY2019-to-date (15 Mar 2019) compared to total precipitation for BIG Flood Years through April 30th.

Soil Moisture Percentile, as of 5 Mar 2019

Soil moisture is high… 70th to 90th percentile south of Grand Forks, nearer normal north.

Frost Depths – Deeper than normal (blo turf/snow)

NDAWN Soil Temperatures added as filled circles, same legend colors.

USGS 28-day Average Streamflow… is near normal

Sheyenne River, dark blue, artificially high due to DVL through-flow and subsequent Baldhill Dam drawdown.

Storm System Next: Sat PM into Sunday AM…

NWS/WPC Forecast 7-Day QPF… Thru Mar 27th

[ Near Normal for us!]

Active/Wet pattern across the Central Plains continues for a while more.

Melting Degrees How Many Hours will we be above 30F (or 32F)? At 60-100 hrs we usually start to see streamflow in those areas of multi-day thaw. A drop below 30F (32F) resets counter to zero. We closely watch what has already

• ccurred (is
• bserved) and

what is forecast

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

[Normalish… but Mixed Precip, into Apr 2]

8-14 Day Outlooks

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

[Optimistic: Less Cold and Somewhat Drier!]

Experimental Wk 3-4 Outlooks

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=FGF

Red River at Wahpeton-Breckenridge: Major

(possible flood wall/bridge closures, rural roads affected)

Red River at Fargo-Moorhead: Major

(F-M Toll Bridge and 1st Ave Bridge closed, Sandbagging?)

New! Probabilistic Flood Outlook Summary (PFOS)

An Experimental Product Only for the 8 mainstem Red River locations. At a Glance,

• relates risk to recent

years,

• to flood stages, and
• to floods of record.

Let us know what you think!

https://www.weather.gov/fgf/PFOS

Buffalo River at Dilworth: Moderate

(breakouts flows, ag flooding, road closures at 25ft. Hwy 10 east of Glyndon floods)

MN Wild Rice River at Hendrum: Major

(breakouts flows, ag flooding, road closures at 31ft. Water against Hwy 25 bridge)

Red River at Halstad: Major

(Hwy 75 closures at 38 ft., Top of dike at 44 ft.)

New! Probabilistic Flood Outlook Summary (PFOS)

An Experimental Product Only for the 8 mainstem Red River locations. At a Glance,

• relates risk to recent

years,

• to flood stages, and
• to floods of record.

Let us know what you think!

https://www.weather.gov/fgf/PFOS

Sand Hill River at Climax: Major

(breakouts flows, ag flooding, at 26 ft. Hwy 75 (north) closed, at 29ft. Hwy 220 (west) closed)

Red Lake River at Crookston: Major

(dike patrols, evacuation planning, ice jam susceptible)

Red River at Grand Forks - EGF: low-end Major

(closures at Sorlie and RR Bridge, Hill Street EGF)

Snake River at Alvarado: Mod-Major

(local breakouts near railroad road and tracks)

Red River at Oslo: Major

(possible road closures east and west of town, wide overland)

New! Probabilistic Flood Outlook Summary (PFOS)

An Experimental Product Only for the 8 mainstem Red River locations. At a Glance,

• relates risk to recent

years,

• to flood stages, and
• to floods of record.

Let us know what you think!

https://www.weather.gov/fgf/PFOS

Two Rivers River at Hallock: Mod-Maj

(manning pumps and lift stations, dikes at 812ft.)

Red River at Pembina: Major

(flood wall and road closures, dike patrols, Interstate?)

Roseau River at Roseau: Minor

(flood diversion in play at 13 ft., but…expect some breakouts up/downstream from Roseau)

New! Probabilistic Flood Outlook Summary (PFOS)

An Experimental Product Only for the 8 mainstem Red River locations. At a Glance,

• relates risk to recent

years,

• to flood stages, and
• to floods of record.

Let us know what you think!

https://www.weather.gov/fgf/PFOS

Flood Risk, by the Numbers…

[15 Mar 2019 outlook]

Similar years… 2011 is starting to look like a more similar year (at 50th percentile), while a perfect thaw cycle year would be more like 2013 flows.

Flood Risk, by the Numbers…

Flood Risk, by the Numbers…

Similar years… 2011 or 2010 start to look like more similar years (at 50th percentile), while a perfect thaw cycle year would be more like 2013 flows (southeast ND).

Bottom Line up Front:

• First half of March has been Merciless, w/two nasty wet storms.
• Top 10 runoff year in now expected. Expect to see lots of water

moving across the landscape towards the rivers.

• Moderate to Major River Flooding is nearly guaranteed,

especially along and near the mainstem Red.

• Good News: This week… still an ideal/slow thaw cycle.
• Not Good: Weekend showers; next week see-saw, stormy?

CRED Flood Reporter - work to relaunch!

https://cred.wq.io

A web-based, app- like feature. The IWI and RRBC are working with the NWS to bring this back online for the 2019 Flood! If/when available will need you help to get the work out!

CRED Flood Reporter - work to relaunch!

https://cred.wq.io

A web-based, app- like feature. The IWI and RRBC are working with the NWS to bring this back online for the 2019 Flood! If/when available will need you help to get the work out!

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