GLOBAL PEACE INDEX2018 The Institute for Economics & Peace 4 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MEASURING PEACE IN A COMPLEX WORLD GLOBAL PEACE INDEX2018 The Institute for Economics & Peace 4 3.6BN 18M Digital Reach International Offices Global Media Reach Research used extensively by organisations including Ranked as one of
MEASURING PEACE IN A COMPLEX WORLD
The Institute for Economics & Peace
Global Media Reach International Offices Digital Reach 3.6BN
4
Research used extensively by organisations including the OECD, Commonwealth Secretariat, World Bank and the United Nations. Ranked as one of the 15 most impactful think tanks in the world on the Global Go To Think Tank Index.
18M
The Global Peace Index
12th edition Ranks 163 countries According to their relative states of peace Using 23 indicators weighed on a 1-5 scale
Developed by the Institute of Economics and Peace Guided and overseen by a panel of International Experts With data collected and collated by the Economist Intelligence Unit
Global Peace Index indicators
6 measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict
Including: intensity of organized internal conflicts, relations with neighbouring countries and number of deaths from conflict Including: number of refugees and IDPs, impact of terrorism, homicide and incarceration rates Including: military expenditure, number of armed service personnel, ease of access to small weapons
10 measures of societal safety and security 7 measures of militarisation
Trends in peace Cost of violence Positive Peace Results
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX
2018 highlights
The average level of country peacefulness has deteriorated by 0.27% from last year. Fourth consecutive year where there was an average deterioration. 71 countries became more peaceful, 92 deteriorated Deterioration primarily driven by changes in:
Counteracting these falls were improvements in:
2018 highlights cont’d
Syria remains the world’s least peaceful nation Iceland is, again, the most peaceful country The Gambia and Liberia had the largest improvement Qatar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had the largest deteriorations South Asia had the largest regional improvement, although it was relatively small Europe remains the most peaceful region, but deteriorated on all three GPI domains South America had the largest regional deterioration
10 most peaceful countries
ICELAND
Rank change: ↔
1 2 AUSTRIA
Rank change: ↑1
3 PORTUGAL
Rank change: ↓1
4 DENMARK
Rank change: ↔
5 NEW ZEALAND
Rank change:↔
CANADA
Rank change: ↔
6 7 SINGAPORE
Rank change: ↔
8 JAPAN
Rank change: ↓1
9 IRELAND
Rank change: ↑2
10 CZECH REPUBLIC
Rank change: ↔
1
10 least peaceful countries
SYRIA
Rank change: ↔
162 SOUTH SUDAN
Rank change: ↓1
161 IRAQ
Rank change: ↑1
160 SOMALIA
Rank change: ↔
159 AFGHANISTAN
Rank change: ↔
YEMEN
Rank change: ↓1
157 158 CONGO, DEM. REP.
Rank change: ↓5
156 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
Rank change: ↑1
155 RUSSIA
Rank change: ↓1
154 LIBYA
Rank change: ↓3
163
Risers and fallers
This year 92 countries deteriorated while 71 countries improved.
Results by region
The four most peaceful regions all experienced deteriorations in peacefulness.
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX
Trends since 2008
The average level of global peacefulness has deteriorated 2.38% since 2008, with declines in eight of the last ten years. Over half of the countries in Europe (the world’s most peaceful region) have deteriorated in peacefulness. No Nordic country is more peaceful now than in 2008. 62% of countries have experienced an increase in the impact of terrorism over the last decade. Nearly 1% of the global population is now displaced. Militarisation has improved in the majority of countries, with an average improvement of 3.2%. The biggest improvements occurred in military expenditure and the armed forces rate.
163
Europe declined in peace for the third year in a row with 23 of 36 countries deteriorating 61% of European countries have deteriorated, mainly Western Europe.
Deteriorations in peace - 10 years
2017
Improvements in peace – 10 years
10 0 26% 70 %
More countries Improved than deteriorated in political terror Of countries had a drop in the homicide rate countries reduced military expenditure as a % of GDP
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX
163 This is a highly conservative estimate.
The global cost of violence, 2017
8
8
$1988
Global economic impact of violence
The global economic impact of violence was $14.76 trillion PPP in 2017, equivalent to 12.4% of global GDP, or $1,988 per person. The average economic cost of violence was equivalent to 45 per cent of GDP in the ten countries most impacted by violence, compared to only two per cent in the ten least affected. In the last 70 years, per capita GDP growth has been three times higher in highly peaceful countries compared to those with low levels of peace. The global economy would be US$13.87 trillion larger than its current level if low peace countries achieved GDP growth equivalent to highly peaceful countries.
163 Military expenditure is the single biggest component of the global cost of violence. The total economies of Denmark, Switzerland and Belgium The global total Foreign Direct Investment in 2017 A 1% reduction in the cost of violence is the equivalent to: The global total Official Development Assistance in 2017 A 10% reduction in the cost of violence is the equivalent to:
The global cost of violence, 2017
Source: IEP GLOBAL PEACE INDEX
DEFINING AND MEASURING PEACE
Actual Peace
Measures: Crime Suppression Military Armed Conflict
Positive Peace
Derived through statistical analysis of datasets, indices and attitudes with the GPI
The perfect state would have no police, jails or crime
Positive Peace Index
163 ` Higher per capita income Resilience Better environmental outcomes Higher GDP growth per annum
Positive Peace creates the optimum environment for human potential to flourish.
High levels of Positive Peace are associated with: Better performance on SDGs
Positive Peace
Peace and GDP per capita growth
Countries with very high level of peace, on average achieved nearly three times higher GDP per capita growth compared to the least peaceful countries since 1960.
2.8 2.0 1.6 1.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 VERY HIGH PEACE HIGH PEACE LOW PEACE VERY LOW PEACE AVERAGE GDP PE PERS ON GROWTH (% ) 1960-2016PEACE GROUPS BASED ON GLOBAL PEACE INDEX
Peace and lower levels of inflation
Historically inflation levels for high peace countries tend to remain consistently below low peace countries has lower volatility.
Positive Peace – Predicting economic performance
growth than countries that deteriorate in Positive Peace
compared to 3.2% for countries that deteriorated in Positive Peace.
growth in real GDP per capita from 2005 to 2016.
Positive Peace trends
Overall, Positive Peace has been improving globally since 2005. However, this improvement plateaued in 2013 before falling in 2016. Acceptance of the Rights of Others deteriorated across every region from 2013 to 2016. The region that experienced the most significant deteriorations across the highest number of Pillars was the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), followed by South America. A large number of Positive Peace indicators need to improve before Negative Peace will improve. However, only a few key indicators of Positive Peace need to deteriorate in order to trigger increases in violence.
163
Measure and analyse peace
Factors that create peace
$$ Lost
ACTION
Summary
Measure and analyse peace
Connect with us
visionofhumanity.org
Explore peace indexes, peace research and peace news and articles.
GlobalPeaceIndex
Like us on Facebook for articles, video and
@GlobPeaceIndex
Keep up to date with the latest peace news.
@GlobalPeaceIndex
Get the latest news and stories on Instagram.