2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX Institute for Economics and Peace - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX Institute for Economics and Peace Wednesday, 26 th November 2014 #TerrorismIndex INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE The Institute for Economics and Peace is an independent, not-for-profit, think tank dedicated
Institute for Economics and Peace Wednesday, 26th November 2014 #TerrorismIndex
INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE
The Institute for Economics and Peace is an independent, not-for-profit, think tank dedicated to building a greater understanding of the key drivers and measures of peace and to identifying the economic benefits that increased peacefulness can deliver. Sydney, New York, Mexico City, Oxford
AGENDA
Highlights Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted by Terrorism Risk of Terrorism
From START Global Terrorism Database Logarithmic Banding Scores (1-10) Over 5 years, with score weight decreasing by half p.a.
Indicator Weight Incidents 1 Injuries 0.5 Deaths 3 Property Damage 1 to 3
METHODOLOGY
Global Peace decreased 5% over past 7 years The decline is largely driven by:
Many more killed by homicides than terrorism
SEVEN-YEAR TRENDS IN PEACE
2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average International Homicide Rate per 100,000 Homicide killed 437,000 people across the world in 2012
Source: UNODC
GLOBAL HOMICIDE RATES
The average country homicide rate has been increasing since 2008
Around 40 times more people are killed by homicide than terrorism
HOMICIDES VS TERRORISM GLOBALLY
50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 450.000 500.000
Homicide Terrorism
Total Number of Deaths
Source: UNODC Global Study on Homicide 2013, START GTD
2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Number of Deaths Global Total Rest of the World Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria
September 11 Syrian Civil War begins US troop surge US invade IRAQ U.S. invade Afghanistan
Five times more people died from terrorism in 2013 than 2000
Source: START GTD
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM, 2000-2013
61% yearly increase in deaths – approximately 11,000 to 18,000 5x increase since 2000 In 2013:
Suicide bombings accounted for 5% of attacks Sunni religious extremists main cause of deaths
HIGHLIGHTS
2013 was the deadliest year in the 14 years covered in the research
2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX RESULTS
Rank Name Deaths Injuries Incidents 1 Iraq 6,362 14,947 2,492 2 Afghanistan 3,111 3,721 1,148 3 Pakistan 2,345 5,035 1,933 4 Nigeria 1,826 457 303 5 Syria 1,078 1,776 217 6 India 404 719 624 7 Somalia 405 492 197 8 Yemen 291 583 295 9 Philippines 292 444 499 10 Thailand 131 398 332
10 COUNTRIES MOST AFFECTED BY TERRORISM
35% 17% 13% 10% 6% 2,3% 2,2% 1,6% 1,6% 1,1% 10%
2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000
Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan Nigeria Syria Somalia India Philippines Yemen Thailand Rest of the world Fatalities
COUNTRIES WITH MOST TERRORISM IN 2013
82% Five countries account for more than 80% of global terrorist activity
Source: START GTD
CORRELATES OF TERRORISM
Factors most closely associated with terrorism:
Factors not statistically associated with terrorism:
Terrorism is linked to political grievances rather than poverty measures
Four groups were responsible for 66% of all deaths by known groups in 2013
THE FOUR DEADLIEST GROUPS IN 2013
Al-Qa`ida 6% Boko Haram 16% ISIL 14% Taliban 30% Other 34%
Source: START GTD
Political engagement and policing were the most successful strategies in combating terrorist groups from 1968-2006
HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END
Politicisation; 43% Policing; 40% Achieved Goals; 10% Military Force; 7%
Source: RAND
589 532 491 451 320 300 242 214 102 93 469 6362 3111 2345 1826 1078 405 404 292 291 201 1643 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000
Sudan Algeria India Russia Israel Colombia Indonesia Nepal Pakistan Uganda Rest of the World Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan Nigeria Syria Somalia India Philippines Yemen Kenya Rest of the World
Terrorism 2002 Compared to 2013
2013 (Total Deaths = 17,958) 2002 (Total Deaths = 3803)
AGENDA
Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH 50+ DEATHS
13 16 13 14 13 17 13 14 19 16 16 13 15 24 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Number of Countries 2013 recorded the largest number of countries with more than 50 deaths
Source: START GTD
BIGGEST INCREASE FROM 2012 TO 2013
3.956 519 449 422 354
500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
Fatalities
Country Iraq Pakistan Syria Nigeria Afghanistan YOY increase 164% 28% 71% 30% 13%
These 5 countries not only had the biggest increases but are also the 5 countries suffering the most from terrorism
Source: START GTD
BIGGEST DECREASE FROM 2012 TO 2013
YOY decrease
Country Yemen Colombia Turkey Thailand Cote d'Ivoire
Fatalities
Countries with the biggest reduction in deaths from terrorism have all had relatively high historical rates of terrorism
Source: START GTD
TRENDS IN TERRORIST IDEOLOGIES
Religion as a driving ideology for terrorism has dramatically increased since 2000
200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800 2.000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Numbers of Incidents Religious Political National Separatist
TRENDS IN REGIONAL TERRORIST IDEOLOGY
Religious ideologies as a motivation for terrorism is not a global phenomenon
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Proportions of Incidents
Political Organisations Religious Nationalist Separatist
Source: START GTD
TARGETS OF TERRORISM
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Private Citizens & Property Police Government (General) Business Transportation Religious Figures/Institutions The primary target of terrorism has consistently been private property and citizens
Source: START GTD
Private Citizens Police
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Proportions of Fatalities in An Incident No Fatalities 1-5 Fatalities >5 Fatalities
FATALITIES PER ATTACK
Since 2007, there have been proportionally less incidents recorded that have killed more than 5 people
Source: START GTD
SUICIDE ATTACKS BY REGION 2000–2013
Since 2000, only 5% of all incidents have been suicide attacks of which 90% occurred in South Asia and MENA
Suicide attacks All other attacks 53% 37% 4% 3% 2% 1%
Source: START GTD
TERRORISM FATALITIES SINCE 2000 IN OECD
5% per cent of all 107,000 terrorist fatalities since 2000 have occurred in OECD countries OECD Fatalities 5% Rest of the World 95%
Source: START GTD
AGENDA
Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism
MOST DEADLY TERRORIST GROUPS
The four most deadly terrorist groups are the Taliban, ISI(L), al-Qa'ida and Boko Haram Taliban ISIL Boko Haram
500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Fatalities
Al-Qa'ida
Note: In 2013 ISI changed their name to ISIL Source: START GTD
The four most deadly terrorist groups have killed nearly 24,000 people since 2000
FOUR DEADLIEST GROUP OVER TIME
1.089 2.757 492 750 8.585 8.763 3.111 3.440 12.185 9.115 8.081 1.759
2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000
Al-Qa`ida (all major affiliates) Taliban ISIL Boko Haram
Fatalities
Incidents Fatalities Injuries
Source: START GTD
BELIEFS OF FOUR DEADLIEST GROUPS
All 4 groups follow some form of Wahhabi theologies They all reject the concept of Western education
Like rain. We believe it is a creation of God rather than an evaporation caused by the sun that condenses and becomes rain ... Like saying the world is a sphere. If it runs contrary to the teachings of Allah, we reject it. We also reject the theory of Darwinism
– Mohammed Yusuf, Founder, Boko Haram
Groups have differing goals and aims Moderate forms of Sunnis theologies need to be cultivated – difficult for West to influence All of the deadliest groups share a common basic set of beliefs
There are large variations on the number of fighters in the major terrorist groups
NUMBER OF FIGHTERS
10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 Taliban ISIL Al-Qa'ida (all major affiliates) Boko Haram Low estimate High estimate
Sources: Various – see 2014 GTI
Most foreign fighters are from neighbouring countries in MENA
FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Oman Mauritania Bahrain U.A.E. Qatar Kuwait Sudan Palestine Algeria Iraq Egypt Turkey Libya Lebanon Morocco Jordan Saudi Arabia Tunisia
Number of fighters
ICSR Low estimate (Dec 2013) ICSR High estimate (Dec 2013)
(Feb-April 2014)
Western Europe is not the main source of foreign fighters in Syria
WESTERN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA
200 400 600 800
Singapore Luxembourg Kyrgyzstan Switzerland Ireland Canada Finland Norway Italy Indonesia Austria United States Sweden Spain Denmark Kosovo Netherlands Australia Germany Belgium United Kingdom France Russia
Number of fighters
ICSR Low estimate (Dec 2013) ICSR High estimate (Dec 2013)
(Feb-April 2014)
AGENDA
Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism
There were 6,352 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
IRAQ
Targets Groups Responsible
Private Citizens & Property Police Government (General) Other Unknown Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Al-Qa`ida in Iraq Other 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000
Fatalities
GTI Rank 1 GTI Score 10/10 Incidents 2,492 Fatalities 6,362 Injuries 14,947 Property Damage 812
Source: START GTD
There were 3,057 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
AFGHANISTAN
Targets Groups Responsible
Police Private Citizens & Property Government (General) Other Taliban Unknown Hizb-I-Islami Other 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000
Fatalities
GTI Rank 2 GTI Score 9.39/10 Incidents 1,148 Fatalities 3,111 Injuries 3,721 Property Damage 453
Source: START GTD
There were 2,243 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
PAKISTAN
Targets Groups Responsible
Private Citizens & Property Police Government (General) Other Unknown Tehrik-i- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Lashkar-e- Jhangvi Other 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500
Fatalities
GTI Rank 3 GTI Score 9.37/10 Incidents 1,933 Fatalities 2,345 Injuries 5,035 Property Damage 701
Source: START GTD
There were 1,812 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
NIGERIA
Targets Groups Responsible
Private Citizens & Property Police Government (General) Other Boko Haram Unknown Fulani Militants Other 500 1.000 1.500 2.000
Fatalities
GTI Rank 4 GTI Score 8.58/10 Incidents 303 Fatalities 1,826 Injuries 457 Property Damage 97
Source: START GTD
There were 1,078 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
SYRIA
Targets Groups Responsible
Private Citizens & Property Journalists & Media Government (General) Other Unknown Al-Nusrah Front Liwa al-Haqq Other 500 1.000 1.500
Fatalities
GTI Rank 5 GTI Score 8.12/10 Incidents 217 Fatalities 1,078 Injuries 1,776 Property Damage 93
Source: START GTD
There were 87 less fatalities in 2013 than 2002
INDIA
Targets Groups Responsible
Police Private Citizens & Property Government (General) Other Maoists Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI- Maoist) Unknown Other 200 400 600 800
Fatalities
GTI Rank 6 GTI Score 7.86/10 Incidents 624 Fatalities 404 Injuries 719 Property Damage 158
Source: START GTD
There were 399 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
SOMALIA
Targets Groups Responsible
Government (General) Private Citizens & Property Military Other Al-Shabaab Unknown 100 200 300 400 500
Fatalities
GTI Rank 7 GTI Score 7.41/10 Incidents 197 Fatalities 405 Injuries 492 Property Damage 60
Source: START GTD
There were 287 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
YEMEN
Targets Groups Responsible
Government (General) Utilities Police Other Al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Houthis Unknown Other 100 200 300 400
Fatalities
GTI Rank 8 GTI Score 7.31/10 Incidents 295 Fatalities 291 Injuries 583 Property Damage 65
Source: START GTD
There were 210 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
PHILIPPINES
Targets Groups Responsible
Government (General) Business Private Citizens & Property Other Unknown New People's Army (NPA) Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) Other 100 200 300 400
Fatalities
GTI Rank 9 GTI Score 7.29/10 Incidents 499 Fatalities 292 Injuries 444 Property Damage 184
Source: START GTD
There were 115 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002
THAILAND
Targets Groups Responsible
Business Police Government (General) Other Unknown Separatists Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) Other 100 200 300
Fatalities
GTI Rank 10 GTI Score 7.19/10 Incidents 332 Fatalities 131 Injuries 398 Property Damage 192
Source: START GTD
AGENDA
Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism
CALCULATING RISK OF TERRORISM
Identifies 6 countries in conflict with similar attributes to countries suffering from conflict and terrorism Identifies 7 countries with attributes in bottom 25% for:
Does not attempt to identify ‘Black Swan’ events Isolates countries without substantial terrorism where conditions are similar
COUNTRIES AT RISK OF INCREASES IN TERRORISM
At Risk Countries Angola Bangladesh Burundi Central African Republic Cote d’Ivoire Ethiopia Iran Israel Mali Mexico Myanmar Sri Lanka Uganda
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