2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX Institute for Economics and Peace - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX Institute for Economics and Peace Wednesday, 26 th November 2014 #TerrorismIndex

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE “ The Institute for Economics and Peace is an independent, not-for-profit, think tank dedicated to building a greater understanding of the key drivers and measures of peace and to identifying the economic benefits that increased ” peacefulness can deliver. Sydney, New York, Mexico City, Oxford

AGENDA Highlights Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted by Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

METHODOLOGY Indicator Weight Incidents 1 Injuries 0.5 Deaths 3 Property Damage 1 to 3 From START Global Terrorism Database Logarithmic Banding Scores (1-10) Over 5 years, with score weight decreasing by half p.a.  e.g. current year 52%, then 26%, 13%, 6% and 3%.

SEVEN-YEAR TRENDS IN PEACE Global Peace decreased 5% over past 7 years The decline is largely driven by: 1. Homicide  Has increased slowly and steadily 2. Terrorist activity  has increased dramatically last 2 years Many more killed by homicides than terrorism  40x more likely to die from homicides

GLOBAL HOMICIDE RATES The average country homicide rate has been increasing since 2008 12 Average International Homicide 10 Rate per 100,000 8 Homicide killed 437,000 people across the world in 2012 6 -UNODC 4 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: UNODC

HOMICIDES VS TERRORISM GLOBALLY Around 40 times more people are killed by homicide than terrorism 500.000 Total Number of Deaths 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 Homicide Terrorism Source: UNODC Global Study on Homicide 2013, START GTD

DEATHS FROM TERRORISM, 2000-2013 Five times more people died from terrorism in 2013 than 2000 20.000 Global Total 18.000 Number of Deaths 16.000 Syrian Civil War Iraq, begins US troop surge 14.000 Afghanistan, Pakistan, US invade IRAQ 12.000 Nigeria and U.S. invade 10.000 Syria Afghanistan 8.000 September 11 6.000 Rest of 4.000 the World 2.000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: START GTD

HIGHLIGHTS 2013 was the deadliest year in the 14 years covered in the research 61% yearly increase in deaths – approximately 11,000 to 18,000 5x increase since 2000 In 2013:  5 countries account for 82% of deaths  4 organisations account for 66% of deaths  24 countries had over 50 deaths – the most ever  8 OECD countries experienced deadly attacks Suicide bombings accounted for 5% of attacks Sunni religious extremists main cause of deaths

2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX RESULTS

10 COUNTRIES MOST AFFECTED BY TERRORISM Rank Name Deaths Injuries Incidents 1 Iraq 6,362 14,947 2,492 2 Afghanistan 3,111 3,721 1,148 3 Pakistan 2,345 5,035 1,933 4 Nigeria 1,826 457 303 5 Syria 1,078 1,776 217 6 India 404 719 624 7 Somalia 405 492 197 8 Yemen 291 583 295 9 Philippines 292 444 499 10 Thailand 131 398 332

COUNTRIES WITH MOST TERRORISM IN 2013 Five countries account for more than 80% of global terrorist activity 10% 18.000 1,6% 1,1% 2,3% 2,2% 1,6% 16.000 6% 10% 14.000 13% Fatalities 12.000 17% 10.000 8.000 35% 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan Nigeria Syria Somalia India Philippines Yemen Thailand the world Rest of 82% Source: START GTD

CORRELATES OF TERRORISM Terrorism is linked to political grievances rather than poverty measures Factors most closely associated with terrorism:  State sponsored violence – torture, killings  Intergroup cohesion  Legitimacy of the State  High levels of other forms of violence Factors not statistically associated with terrorism:  Poverty measures  Mean years of schooling  Life expectancy  Economic Indicators

THE FOUR DEADLIEST GROUPS IN 2013 Four groups were responsible for 66% of all deaths by known groups in 2013 Al-Qa`ida 6% Boko Haram 16% Other 34% ISIL 14% Taliban 30% Source: START GTD

HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END Political engagement and policing were the most successful strategies in combating terrorist groups from 1968-2006 Military Force; 7% Achieved Goals; 10% Politicisation; 43% Policing; 40% Source: RAND

Terrorism 2002 Compared to 2013 20.000 2002 (Total Deaths = 3803) 2013 (Total Deaths = 17,958) 1643 18.000 201 291 292 16.000 404 1078 405 1826 14.000 2345 12.000 3111 10.000 8.000 6362 6.000 469 4.000 93 102 214 242 300 320 451 2.000 491 532 589 0 Sudan Algeria India Russia Israel Colombia Indonesia Nepal Pakistan Uganda Rest of the World Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan Nigeria Syria Somalia India Philippines Yemen Kenya Rest of the World

AGENDA Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH 50+ DEATHS 2013 recorded the largest number of countries with more than 50 deaths over the last 14 years Number of Countries 24 19 17 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: START GTD

BIGGEST INCREASE FROM 2012 TO 2013 These 5 countries not only had the biggest increases but are also the 5 countries suffering the most from terrorism 3.956 4.000 3.500 3.000 Fatalities 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 519 449 422 354 500 0 Country Iraq Pakistan Syria Nigeria Afghanistan YOY 164% 28% 71% 30% 13% increase Source: START GTD

BIGGEST DECREASE FROM 2012 TO 2013 Countries with the biggest reduction in deaths from terrorism have all had relatively high historical rates of terrorism YOY -15% -48% -43% -23% -85% decrease Country Yemen Colombia Turkey Thailand Cote d'Ivoire 0 -10 -20 Fatalities -23 -30 -40 -40 -43 -50 -50 -52 -60 Source: START GTD

TRENDS IN TERRORIST IDEOLOGIES Religion as a driving ideology for terrorism has dramatically increased since 2000 2.000 Religious 1.800 Numbers of Incidents 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 Political 400 200 National Separatist 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

TRENDS IN REGIONAL TERRORIST IDEOLOGY Religious ideologies as a motivation for terrorism is not a global phenomenon Proportions of Incidents 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Political Organisations Religious Nationalist Separatist Source: START GTD

TARGETS OF TERRORISM The primary target of terrorism has consistently been private property and citizens 40% Private Citizens 35% 30% 25% 20% Police 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Private Citizens & Property Police Government (General) Business Transportation Religious Figures/Institutions Source: START GTD

FATALITIES PER ATTACK Since 2007, there have been proportionally less incidents recorded that Proportions of Fatalities in An Incident have killed more than 5 people 60% 50% No Fatalities 40% 1-5 Fatalities 30% 20% 10% >5 Fatalities 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: START GTD

SUICIDE ATTACKS BY REGION 2000 – 2013 Since 2000, only 5% of all incidents have been suicide attacks of which 90% occurred in South Asia and MENA Suicide attacks 1% 2% 3% 4% 37% 53% All other attacks Source: START GTD

TERRORISM FATALITIES SINCE 2000 IN OECD 5% per cent of all 107,000 terrorist fatalities since 2000 have occurred in OECD countries OECD Fatalities 5% Rest of the World 95% Source: START GTD

AGENDA Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

MOST DEADLY TERRORIST GROUPS The four most deadly terrorist groups are the Taliban, ISI(L), al-Qa'ida and Boko Haram 3.500 Taliban 3.000 2.500 Fatalities 2.000 Boko Haram 1.500 1.000 ISIL Al-Qa'ida 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: In 2013 ISI changed their name to ISIL Source: START GTD

FOUR DEADLIEST GROUP OVER TIME The four most deadly terrorist groups have killed nearly 24,000 people since 2000 12.185 12.000 9.115 10.000 8.585 8.763 8.081 Fatalities 8.000 6.000 3.440 4.000 3.111 2.757 1.759 2.000 1.089 750 492 0 Al-Qa`ida Taliban ISIL Boko Haram (all major affiliates) Incidents Fatalities Injuries Source: START GTD

BELIEFS OF FOUR DEADLIEST GROUPS All of the deadliest groups share a common basic set of beliefs All 4 groups follow some form of Wahhabi theologies They all reject the concept of Western education Like rain. We believe it is a creation of God rather than an evaporation caused by the sun that condenses and becomes rain ... Like saying the world is a sphere. If it runs contrary to the teachings of Allah, we reject it. We also reject the theory of Darwinism – Mohammed Yusuf, Founder, Boko Haram Groups have differing goals and aims Moderate forms of Sunnis theologies need to be cultivated – difficult for West to influence

NUMBER OF FIGHTERS There are large variations on the number of fighters in the major terrorist groups Boko Haram Al-Qa'ida (all major affiliates) ISIL Taliban 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 Low estimate High estimate Sources: Various – see 2014 GTI