GAS MARKET INTEGRATION: FOR A SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL GROWTH By: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GAS MARKET INTEGRATION: FOR A SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL GROWTH By: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 07, 2022 252 likes •416 views

GAS MARKET INTEGRATION: FOR A SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL GROWTH By: Chairman of the Management Committee, Gazprom Alexey Miller Growth dynamics and structure of energy consumption Dynamics of world energy consumption, Structure of world energy

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GAS MARKET INTEGRATION: FOR A SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL GROWTH

By: Chairman of the Management Committee, Gazprom Alexey Miller

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Growth dynamics and structure of energy consumption

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

Dynamics of world energy consumption, million TOE. Structure of world energy consumption, %

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 29,2 28,8 25,5 16,7 6,7 10 20 30 40 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Oil Coal Natural gas Atom RES (wind, solar, tidal power, geothermal energy, biomass, hydro)

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The potential of hydrocarbon energy

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Turkmenistan Saudi Arabia Australia Algeria Cabada Qatar Iran China USA Russia

Forecast of gas production by 2035, billion cubic meters

Conventional gas Unconventional gas

Forecasts of global gas demand, billion cubic meters

3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000

2011 2020 2030

The International Energy Agency (Сurrent Policies Scenario 2011) The International Energy Agency (New Policies Scenario 2011) U.S. Department of Energy (Reference Case 2011) The International Energy Agency (Gas Scenario 2011) CERA (Global Redesign Scenario 2011) Energy Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences 2012

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The development of global trade in natural gas

4

  • 200
  • 100

100 200 1990 2006 2010

OECD – North America

  • 500
  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 1990 2006 2010

OECD – Europe

  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 400 1990 2006 2010

Countries outside the OECD – Europe/Eurasia

100 200 1990 2006 2010

Africa

  • 100

100 200 1990 2006 2010

Middle East

  • 100
  • 200
  • 100

100 1990 2006 2010

OECD – Pacific Region

100 200

  • 200
  • 100

Volume of international trade in LNG Volume of international trade in gas by pipelines Export, billion cubic meters Import, billion cubic meters

IEA data, Petroleum Economist

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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Alternative sources of natural gas

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

Global gas production by types, billion cubic meters

Gas of low-permeable reservoirs

380-550 200-225

Shale gas

380-420

Coal-bed gas

Expert assessment by Gazprom VNIIGAZ

Global structure of unconventional gas resources, trillion cubic meters

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% Coal-bed gas Shale gas Conventional gas Low-permeability gas reservoirs Share of unconventional (right axis)

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International gas trade from 2010 to 2011

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011

Dynamics of international gas trade, billion cubic meters

LNG International gas trade By pipeline

World exports by regions of the world, billion cubic meters

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Африка Европа Ближний Восток Азия Океания СНГ Северная Америка Латинская Америка

2011 2010

+4,2%

  • 23,2%
  • 4,3%

+10% +4,2%

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Regional gas pricing

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200 400 600 2005 2015 2025 2035 200 400 600 2005 2015 2025 2035 200 400 600 2005 2015 2025 2035 USA Europe Japan Perspective projects Average import gas price in Europe, USD/thousand cubic meters Spot gas price in the U.S. (Henry Hub), USD/thousand cubic meters Import gas price in Japan, USD/thousand cubic meters

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Price formation in the gas market

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

5 10 15 20 25

03.2010 09.2010 03.2011 09.2011

5 10 15 20 25

03.2010 09.2010 03.2011 09.2011 03.2012

Dynamics of oil and gas prices in the U.S., USD/million Btu

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

03.2010 09.2010 03.2011 09.2011 03.2012

Dynamics of LNG prices in Japan, USD/million Btu Dynamics of oil and gas prices in Europe, USD/million Btu

Japanese Crude Cocktail LNG (Japan) Russian gas at the border of Germany Russian gas at the border of France Russian gas at the border of Hungary Russian gas at the border of Italy Brent Henry Hub WTI

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Price formation in the gas market

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

Hotelling rent Ricardo rent Price (USD/barrels, USD/thousand cubic meters) Production volume (million barrels/day, million cubic meters/year) Limitation of production capacities

Supply curve (cost of delivery) Demand curve Price, based on replacement cost (the cost

  • f consumption
  • f alternative

energy resources) Price, based on the costs (Cost +)

  • f production and delivery

20 40 60 80 100 120

1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Hotelling rent Dynamics of price integration of the world gas market

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Development of Gazprom's resource base

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2020 2030

69,4 157,2 47,2 32,2 133,2 323,0 94,9 90,3

100 200 300 400

Expected production, billion cubic meters/year 2015 2030 116 310-360 (land+shelf)

Commissioning of the Yamal Peninsula fields and the shelf

New fields Nadym Pur Taz District Yamal Existing projects Stockman Eastern Siberia and the Far East 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 billion cubic meters billion cubic meters

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Gazprom's transportation projects

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

Nord Stream gas pipeline

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2035

Gas balance in Europe, billion cubic meters Europe's inter-regional gas trade, billion cubic meters

Capacity: 55 billion cubic meters/year Capacity: 63 billion cubic meters/year (South Stream)

South Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines

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Gas production in other EU countries Imports from the CIS Imports from the Middle East Imports from North America Imports from Latin America Gas production in Norway Imports from Africa LNG import Gas import through pipelines

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Gazprom in the LNG sector

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

500 1000 1500 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Volumes of Gazprom Group's transactions with LNG, thousand tons

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The strategy of relying on conventional natural gas resources

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

The structure of Russia's unconventional gas resources, trillion cubic meters

Low-permeability gas reservoirs

110 5-20

Shale gas

50

Coal-bed gas

Distribution of conventional and unconventional gas by regions in the world, trillion cubic meters

Coal-bed gas Shale gas Low-permeability gas reservoirs

Expert assessment by Gazprom VNIIGAZ

40 80 120 40 40 80 120 40 80 40 80 120 40 80 120 160 200

North America Europe CIS South America APR Middle East and Africa Coal-bed gas Shale gas Conventional gas

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Gazprom's global supplies of pipeline gas and LNG

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Perspective routes Russia CIS and Baltic states

262,1

70,2

Europe

148,1

America and APR

1,93

Global gas supplies, billion cubic meters

200 400 600 800

1973 1990 2004 2005 2006 2007 22008 2009 2010

Ratio of supply volumes of pipeline gas and LNG, billion cubic meters

LNG Gas through pipelines

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Natural gas – an environmentally and technologically optimal solution

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Gas market integration: for a sustainable global growth

Relative content of toxic components in exhaust gases of motor vehicles Cost of building 1 kW of electric power of various types of power plants, thousand dollars.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Gasoline Diesel fuel Propane Natural gas NOx CO Soot СН Benzopyrene 2 4 6 8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Gas generation Coal-fired TPP Lignite-fired TPP Thermal reactors

Fast neutron reactors

Onshore wind turbines Offshore wind turbines

Solar photovoltaic (PV) Concentrated thermal solar power (CSP)

Biomass-fired CPP Biomass-fired TPP Large hydropower Small hydropower Geothermal

Fuel energy Nuclear energy Renewable energy

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Thank you for your attention!

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