Future of Mobility: Technical Advisory Committee 2 nd Meeting July - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future of Mobility: Technical Advisory Committee 2 nd Meeting July 24, 2017 Corwin Bell, MCP Email: corwin@berkeley.edu Susan Shaheen, Ph.D, Principal Investigator Email: sshaheen@berkeley.edu; Twitter: SusanShaheen1, LinkedIn: Susan Shaheen tsrc.berkeley.edu imr.berkeley.edu

Agenda: • Introductions • Project Team • Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Members • Research Progress • Literature Review • Expert Interviews • Notable Findings from Literature Review and Expert Interviews • Questions and Discussion 7/20/17 2

Project Goals: • Increased Understanding • Transportation Technologies • Evolving Business Models for Transportation • Socio-Demographic Trends • Transportation Planning • California Transportation Plan (CTP 2050) • Rapidly Changing Technology and Business Models 7/20/17 3

Key Tasks and Timeline: • Literature Review (months 1-6) • Expert Interviews (months 3-6) • Draft Working Paper (months 7-9) • Webinar (months 10-11) • Final White Paper (month 12) 7/20/17 4

Literature Review: Methods • TSRC conducts a review of the literature relevant to transportation futures including: projections regarding demographic, economic, and technological change; automation; intelligent transportation systems; shared mobility; goods movement; and other key areas • Sources include both published and non-published material, given the rapidly changing field 7/20/17 5

Literature Review: Status • 60+ Sources from academic, government, think tank, consulting, news sources • Organized by impact to CTP goals: 1. Safety and Health 2. Social Equity 3. Environmental Sustainability 4. The Economy 5. Transportation System Performance 6. System Preservation 7/20/17 6

teps Literature Review: Next S • Topics to explore further • Impacts to goods movement • Impacts to underlying demographic trends • Connected Vehicles • Incorporate feedback and new sources from TAC 7/20/17 7

Expert Interviews: Methods • TSRC conducts expert interviews with public and private sector experts in transportation technologies, business models, and planning, as well as futurists and innovators • Experts identified through personal contacts and from the literature review • Themes and trends identified from the interviews will be synthesized and included in the White Paper 7/20/17 8

Expert Interviews: Organizations Represented • Ridesourcing Provider • Drone Manufacturer • Academic Research • Transportation Advocacy • US DOT • Think Tank • Consultant • Transit Agency • City DOT 7/20/17 9

Expert Interviews: Status • 26 potential interviewees contacted • 10 interviews completed from diverse mix of experts • Key themes identified 7/20/17 10

Expert Interviews: Next S teps • May reach out to more experts pending TAC feedback • Incorporate findings into final report 7/20/17 11

Notable Findings from Literature and Interviews • Technological Developments • Need for Revenue Diversification • Data Sharing through Public-Private Partnerships • Impacts on CTP Goals 7/20/17 12

Technological Developments • Shared Vehicles (SV) • Electric Vehicles (EV) • Connected Vehicles (CV) • Automated Vehicles (AV) • Convergence of SV, EV, CV, AV (SECA) 7/20/17 13

Need for Revenue Diversification • SECA likely to reduce revenue from gas tax, vehicle registration, parking, and ticketing • Potential Opportunities: • VMT tax • Static highway/bridge tolls and cordon pricing • Dynamic congestion pricing (Express Lanes) • Fees for shared mobility providers 7/20/17 14

Data Sharing through Public-Private Partnerships • Significant improvement in transportation data quality and quantity • Need for data sharing standards across jurisdictions (NACTO guide) 7/20/17 15

Impacts on CTP Goals 1. Improve Multimodal Mobility and Accessibility for All People 
 2. Preserve the Multimodal Transportation System 
 3. Support a Vibrant Economy 
 4. Improve Public Safety and Security 
 5. Foster Livable and Healthy Communities and Promote Social Equity 6. Practice Environmental Stewardship 
 7/20/17 16

1. Improve Multimodal Mobility and Accessibility for All People • (+) SECA could significantly reduce cost of transporting people/goods, increasing access for youth, senior, disabled, and low-income residents • (-) Reliance on smartphones, non-cash payment, and technological literacy can leave many vulnerable users behind 7/20/17 17

2. Preserve the Multimodal Transportation System • (+) Access to SECA could reduce the need for car ownership, shifting residents to multi-modal travel • (+) Data from smartphones and shared vehicles could inform strategic transit investments • (-) Low-cost end-to-end SECA services could induce mode shift from walking, biking, and transit 7/20/17 18

3. Support a Vibrant Economy • (+) Decreased cost and increased spatial/temporal coverage of mobility services could improve job access • (-) AV, drones, e-commerce, 3D printing could significantly reduce passenger/goods movement, manufacturing, and retail jobs 7/20/17 19

4. Improve Public Safety and Security • (+) AV likely to significantly reduce collision risk, especially for vulnerable users • (-) AV and connected vehicles (CV) present network security risks not present with human controlled vehicles 7/20/17 20

5. Foster Livable and Healthy Communities and Promote Social Equity • (+) EV adoption will have positive impacts on air quality • (-) Underlying income inequality could preclude access to services provided by profit-motivated operators • (-) Over emphasis on high-tech, motorized, and private solutions could limit development of low-tech, bike/ped, and public transit infrastructure 7/20/17 21

6. Practice Environmental Stewardship • (+) Shift from private ownership to SECA fleets could significantly reduce the total number of vehicles on the road, criteria air pollutants, and GHG emissions • (-) If unregulated, low cost and convenience of SECA could induce demand of passenger/gods movement, increasing VMT, and total energy use 7/20/17 22

Key Tasks and Timeline: Next Steps • Literature Review (months 1-6) • Expert Interviews (months 3-6) • Draft Working Paper (months 7-9) • Webinar (months 10-11) • Final White Paper (month 12) 7/20/17 23

Draft Working Paper • TSRC will draft a working paper connecting key insights from the literature review and expert interviews • Findings will be organized with an emphasis on Caltrans’ planning and system management needs in an uncertain future 7/20/17 24

Webinar and Final White Paper • TSRC will present the key findings based on the working paper that summarizes findings from the research • Webinar will include recommendations and encourage discussion among the participants • TSRC will lead the content development for the webinar and manage the webinar • Working Paper will be finalized into a White Paper for broad distribution, following the webinar 7/20/17 25

Discussion 7/20/17 26

www.its.berkeley.edu/sustainabilitycenter 7/20/17 27