Future of Mobility: Technical Advisory Committee 2 nd Meeting July - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future of Mobility: Technical Advisory Committee 2nd Meeting

July 24, 2017

Corwin Bell, MCP Email: corwin@berkeley.edu Susan Shaheen, Ph.D, Principal Investigator Email: sshaheen@berkeley.edu; Twitter: SusanShaheen1, LinkedIn: Susan Shaheen tsrc.berkeley.edu imr.berkeley.edu

Agenda:

• Introductions
• Project Team
• Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Members
• Research Progress
• Literature Review
• Expert Interviews
• Notable Findings from Literature Review and Expert Interviews
• Questions and Discussion

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Project Goals:

• Increased Understanding
• Transportation Technologies
• Evolving Business Models for Transportation
• Socio-Demographic Trends
• Transportation Planning
• California Transportation Plan (CTP 2050)
• Rapidly Changing Technology and Business Models

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Key Tasks and Timeline:

• Literature Review (months 1-6)
• Expert Interviews (months 3-6)
• Draft Working Paper (months 7-9)
• Webinar (months 10-11)
• Final White Paper (month 12)

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Literature Review: Methods

• TSRC conducts a review of the literature relevant to

transportation futures including: projections regarding demographic, economic, and technological change; automation; intelligent transportation systems; shared mobility; goods movement; and other key areas

• Sources include both published and non-published material,

given the rapidly changing field

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Literature Review: Status

• 60+ Sources from academic, government, think tank,

consulting, news sources

• Organized by impact to CTP goals:
• 1. Safety and Health
• 2. Social Equity
• 3. Environmental Sustainability
• 4. The Economy
• 5. Transportation System Performance
• 6. System Preservation

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Literature Review: Next S teps

• Topics to explore further
• Impacts to goods movement
• Impacts to underlying demographic trends
• Connected Vehicles
• Incorporate feedback and new sources from TAC

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Expert Interviews: Methods

• TSRC conducts expert interviews with public and private sector

experts in transportation technologies, business models, and planning, as well as futurists and innovators

• Experts identified through personal contacts and from the

literature review

• Themes and trends identified from the interviews will be

synthesized and included in the White Paper

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Expert Interviews: Organizations Represented

• Ridesourcing Provider
• Drone Manufacturer
• Academic Research
• Transportation Advocacy
• US DOT
• Think Tank
• Consultant
• Transit Agency
• City DOT

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Expert Interviews: Status

• 26 potential interviewees contacted
• 10 interviews completed from diverse mix of experts
• Key themes identified

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Expert Interviews: Next S teps

• May reach out to more experts pending TAC feedback
• Incorporate findings into final report

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Notable Findings from Literature and Interviews

• Technological Developments
• Need for Revenue Diversification
• Data Sharing through Public-Private Partnerships
• Impacts on CTP Goals

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Technological Developments

• Shared Vehicles (SV)
• Electric Vehicles (EV)
• Connected Vehicles (CV)
• Automated Vehicles (AV)
• Convergence of SV, EV, CV, AV (SECA)

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Need for Revenue Diversification

• SECA likely to reduce revenue from gas tax, vehicle

registration, parking, and ticketing

• Potential Opportunities:
• VMT tax
• Static highway/bridge tolls and cordon pricing
• Dynamic congestion pricing (Express Lanes)
• Fees for shared mobility providers

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Data Sharing through Public-Private Partnerships

• Significant improvement in transportation data quality and

quantity

• Need for data sharing standards across jurisdictions (NACTO

guide)

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Impacts on CTP Goals

• 1. Improve Multimodal Mobility and Accessibility for All People 

• 2. Preserve the Multimodal Transportation System 

• 3. Support a Vibrant Economy 

• 4. Improve Public Safety and Security 

• 5. Foster Livable and Healthy Communities and Promote Social

Equity

• 6. Practice Environmental Stewardship 


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• 1. Improve Multimodal Mobility and

Accessibility for All People

• (+) SECA could significantly reduce cost of transporting

people/goods, increasing access for youth, senior, disabled, and low-income residents

• (-) Reliance on smartphones, non-cash payment, and

technological literacy can leave many vulnerable users behind

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• 2. Preserve the Multimodal Transportation

System

• (+) Access to SECA could reduce the need for car ownership,

shifting residents to multi-modal travel

• (+) Data from smartphones and shared vehicles could inform

strategic transit investments

• (-) Low-cost end-to-end SECA services could induce mode

shift from walking, biking, and transit

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• 3. Support a Vibrant Economy
• (+) Decreased cost and increased spatial/temporal coverage
• f mobility services could improve job access
• (-) AV, drones, e-commerce, 3D printing could significantly

reduce passenger/goods movement, manufacturing, and retail jobs

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• 4. Improve Public Safety and Security
• (+) AV likely to significantly reduce collision risk, especially for

vulnerable users

• (-) AV and connected vehicles (CV) present network security

risks not present with human controlled vehicles

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• 5. Foster Livable and Healthy Communities

and Promote Social Equity

• (+) EV adoption will have positive impacts on air quality
• (-) Underlying income inequality could preclude access to

services provided by profit-motivated operators

• (-) Over emphasis on high-tech, motorized, and private

solutions could limit development of low-tech, bike/ped, and public transit infrastructure

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• 6. Practice Environmental Stewardship
• (+) Shift from private ownership to SECA fleets could

significantly reduce the total number of vehicles on the road, criteria air pollutants, and GHG emissions

• (-) If unregulated, low cost and convenience of SECA could

induce demand of passenger/gods movement, increasing VMT, and total energy use

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Key Tasks and Timeline: Next Steps

• Literature Review (months 1-6)
• Expert Interviews (months 3-6)
• Draft Working Paper (months 7-9)
• Webinar (months 10-11)
• Final White Paper (month 12)

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Draft Working Paper

• TSRC will draft a working paper connecting key insights from

the literature review and expert interviews

• Findings will be organized with an emphasis on Caltrans’

planning and system management needs in an uncertain future

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Webinar and Final White Paper

• TSRC will present the key findings based on the working paper

that summarizes findings from the research

• Webinar will include recommendations and encourage

discussion among the participants

• TSRC will lead the content development for the webinar and

manage the webinar

• Working Paper will be finalized into a White Paper for broad

distribution, following the webinar

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Discussion

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