Fut ure Direct ion of AI M Fut ure Direct ion of AI M ~For - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

Fut ure Direct ion of AI M Fut ure Direct ion of AI M

~For discussion t oward next AI M proj ect ~ ~For discussion t oward next AI M proj ect ~

Yuzuru Yuzuru Matsuoka Matsuoka The 9th AI M I nternational Workshop The 9th AI M I nternational Workshop 12 12-

• 14, March 2004

14, March 2004 At At Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall National I nstitute f or Environmental Studies, 305 National I nstitute f or Environmental Studies, 305-

• 8506, Tsukuba, Japan

8506, Tsukuba, Japan

SLIDE 2

Ａ Ｉ Ｍ Ｍｏ ｄ ｅ ｌＦ ａ ｍｉ ｌ ｙ (FY 2003)

A I M / E c

• s

y s t e m A I M / M a t e r i a l A I M / C G E A I M / T r e n d A I M / E n d u s e [ l

• c

a l ] A I M / E n d u s e [ c

• u

n t r y ]A I M / E n d u s e [ g l

• b

a l ] A I M / I m p a c t A I M / I m p a c t [ C

• u

n t r y ] A I M / I m p a c t [ p

• l

i c y ] ( t e n t a t i v e n a m e ) A I M / D V M

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U ( t e n t a t i v e n a m e ) A I M / W a t e r C a t e g

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y C

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s e r v a t i

• n
• f

e c

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y s t e m / w a t e r s t r e s s / l a n d u s e / p

• l

l u t i

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i n d e v e l

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i n g c

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n t r i e s C O 2 r e d u c t i

• n

, e n e r g y c

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s u m p t i

• n

, w a s t e m a n a g e m e n t . e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l i n d u s t r y , a n d r e c y c l i n g

• b

a s e d s

• c

i e t y E n e r g y , G H G C

• n

t r

• l

E v a l u a t e c

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n t r y

• w

i s e e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l p r

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l e m s G H G , S O 2 , N O X , P M a b a t e m e n t t e c h n

• l
• g

y G H G , S O 2 , N O X , P M a b a t e m e n t t e c h n

• l
• g

y G H G , S O 2 , N O X , P M a b a t e m e n t t e c h n

• l
• g

y I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t

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c l i m a t e c h a n g e I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t

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c l i m a t e c h a n g e I n t e g r a t i

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m i t i g a t i

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p

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i c y e v a l u a t i

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a n d i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t

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c l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d l a n d

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s e c h a n g e I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t O b j e c t i v e M

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e l i n g

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r e l a t i

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s h i p a m

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g e c

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i c a c t i v i t i e s , l a n d u s e a n d e c

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y s t e m E c

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i c a n d m a t e r i a l f l

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i m p a c t b y w a s t e m a n a g e m e n t a n d c l i m a t e p

• l

i c y L

• n

g

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e r m g l

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a l w a r m i n g Q u a n t i f i c a t i

• n

a n d a n a l y s i s

• f

e n e r g y a n d e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l v a r i a b l e s T e c h n

• l
• g

y s e l e c t i

• n

f

• r

g l

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a l w a r m i n g , r e g i

• n

a l a i r p

• l

l u t i

• n

T e c h n

• l
• g

y s e l e c t i

• n

f

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g l

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a l w a r m i n g , r e g i

• n

a l a i r p

• l

l u t i

• n

T e c h n

• l
• g

y s e l e c t i

• n

f

• r

g l

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a l w a r m i n g , r e g i

• n

a l a i r p

• l

l u t i

• n

I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t a t g l

• b

a l s c a l e I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t a t c

• u

n t r y s c a l e I n v e s t i g a t i

• n
• f

s t a b i l i z a t i

• n

l e v e l a n d m i t i g a t i

• n

p

• l

i c y w i t h c

• n

s i d e r i n g c

• n

s e q u e n t i m p a c t s I n t e g r a t e d a s s e s s m e n t

• f

t h e i n t e r a c t i

• n

a m

• n

g c l i m a t e , v e g e t a t i

• n

a n d l a n d

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s e I n t e g r a t e d a s s e s s m e n t

• f

w a t e r s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d f

• c

u s i n g

• n

u r b a n a r e a M

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e l t y p e G l

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a l e c

• n
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i c m

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e l + v a r i

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s p r

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e s s m

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e l s s u c h a a s w a t e r C

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n t r y e c

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• m

i c m

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e l G l

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a l e c

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i c t

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n m

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e l C

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n t r y

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e v e l e c

• n
• m

e t r i c m

• d

e l C

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n t r y

• l

e v e l

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r e g i

• n

a l

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e v e l b

• t

t

• m
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p m

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e l C

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n t r y

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e v e l

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r e g i

• n

a l

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e v e l b

• t

t

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p m

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e l C

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n t r y

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e v e l

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r e g i

• n

a l

• l

e v e l b

• t

t

• m
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p m

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e l P r

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e s s m

• d

e l b a s e d

• n

r a s t e r G I S d a t a P r

• c

e s s m

• d

e l b a s e d

• n

r a s t e r G I S d a t a T

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f

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s y n t h e s i z i n g c u r r e n t k n

• w

l e d g e s I n t e g r a t e d m

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e l ( p r

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e s s m

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e l + g l

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a l e c

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i c m

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e l ) C i t y m

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e l （ c

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p l i n g p r

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e s s a n d s t a t i s t i c a l m

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e l ） T a r g e t y e a r ～2 1 ～2 3

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5 ～2 1

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1 5 ～2 3 2 ～2 3 ～2 5 ～2 5 ～2 1 ～2 1 ～2 5 ( M i t i g a t i

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p

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i c y ) ～2 1 ( I m p a c t ) ～2 1 5 ～2 5 D e s t i n a t i

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M A ( m i l l e n n i u m e c

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y s t e m a s s e s s m e n t ) / A P E I S / G e n e r a l e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l a n a l y s i s C a r b

• n

t a x / A P E I S / B K P / C

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i n g t

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n f u n d E M F 2 1 （ E n e r g y M

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e l i n g F

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u m ） A P E I S I P C C U N E P / G E O 4 A C R O P O L I S T

• l

f

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c

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n t r y a n d l

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a l l e v e l p

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i c y m a k i n g b y A I M t e a m i n e a c h c

• u

n t r y , E s t i m a t i

• n
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f u t u r e G H G i n v e n t

• r

i e s T

• l

f

• r

c

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n t r y a n d l

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a l l e v e l p

• l

i c y m a k i n g b y A I M t e a m i n e a c h c

• u

n t r y A C R O P O L I S E M F 2 1 A P E I S B K P I P C C A P E I S A I A C C G E F A P E I S A I A C C G E F B K P , I P C C , I n i t i a t i v e N e x t g e n e r a t i

• n
• f

A I M m

• d

e l A P E I S C

• n

t e n t E c

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y t e m a n d l a n d u s e i n g l

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a l e n v . p r

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l e m s A s s e s s r e d u c t i

• n
• f

e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l l

• a

d s b y p r

• m
• t

i n g r e c y c l e , e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l i n d u s t r y a n d i n v e s t m e n t M a i n m

• d

e l f

• r

t

• p
• d
• w

n e n e r g y m

• d

e l S i m p l e e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l b u r d e n e s t i m a t i

• n

m

• d

e l t h a t c a n b e

• p

e r a t e d b y p

• l

i c y m a k e r s i n e a c h c

• u

n t r y C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

• f

r e g i

• n

a l d e t a i l e d r e s

• l

u t i

• n

, I n t e r f a c e b e t w e e n r e g i

• n

a l a i r p

• l

l u t i

• n

a n d e n e r g y m a n a g e m e n t A s s e s s c

• u

n t r y

• l

e v e l e n e r g y a n d G H G r e d u c t i

• n

p

• l

i c y , M a i n t

• l

t

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c h i e v e r e d u c t i

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t a r g e t f

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A I M t e a m i n e a c h c

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n t r y B

• t

t

• m
• u

p m

• d

e l c

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e r i n g w

• r

l d r e g i

• n

a n d s u p p l e m e n t e d b y A I M / C G E F l a g s h i p m

• d

e l

• f

A I M / I m p a c t s t u d y D i s t r i b u t i

• n

p a c k a g e f

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c

• l

l a b

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a t i v e r e s e a r c h t e a m s

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A I M C

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m u n i c a t i

• n

t

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f

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p

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i c y m a k e r s F u l l c

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p l e m

• d

e l

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l a n d

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s e a n d l a n d

• c
• v

e r c h a n g e s U r b a n i z a t i

• n

, w a t e r u s e m a n a g e m e n t , c

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p l i n g w a t e r q u a n t i t y a n d q u a l i t y p r

• b

l e m W

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k t i m e s c h e d u l e M i d d l e f

• r

M A / M i d d l e f

• r

A P E I S S h

• r

t f

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c a b

• n

t a x i n J a p a n a n d B K P / l

• n

g f

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a p p l i c a t i

• n

t

• A

s i a n c

• u

n t r i e s S h

• r

t

• t

e r m : E M F 2 1 , m i d d l e

• t

e r m : A P E I S , G E O 4 , l

• n

g

• t

e r m : I P C C O p e r a t i

• n

a l O p e r a t i

• n

a l O p e r a t i

• n

a l s h

• r

t

• t

e r m : A C R O P O L I S , E M F 2 1 , m i d d l e

• t

e r m : A P E I S , B K P , l

• n

g

• t

e r m : I P C C O p e r a t i

• n

a l S h

• r

t / M i d t e r m M i d t e r m M i d / L

• n

g t e r m S h

• r

t / M i d t e r m 1 : M

• E

○ c a r b

• b

t a x / B K P / r e c y c l i n g

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a s e d s

• c

i e t y ○Ｂ Ｋ Ｐ ○Ｂ Ｋ Ｐ ○B K P 2 : A P E I S ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ 3 : M A ○ ○ △ 4 : E M F 2 1 ○ ○ 5 : A C R O P O L I S ○ ○ 5 : I P C C ○ ○ ○B K P ○ 6 : G E O , e t c △A s i a n c

• u

n t r i e s ○Ｇ Ｅ Ｏ ４ ○Ｇ Ｅ Ｏ ４ ○ ○ ○ ○A I A C C , G E F ○I n i t i a t i v e A u d i e n c e G l

• b

a l M

• E

/ N a t i

• n

a l g

• v

. O u t s i d e O u t s i d e e a c h c

• u

n t r y , l

• c

a l g

• v

e r n m e n t ,

• u

t s i d e M

• E

, e a c h c

• u

n t r y g

• v

e r n m e n t ,

• u

t s i d e M

• E

, e a c h c

• u

n t r y g

• v

e r n m e n t ,

• u

t s i d e O u t s i d e O u t s i d e M

• E

/

• u

t s i d e O u t s i d e O u t s i d e T a s k C

• m

p l e t i

• n
• f

m

• d

e l L i n k w i t h e n d u s e m

• d

e l C

• m

p l e t i

• n

T

• i

n c l u d e m

• r

e e n v i r

• n

m e n t a l i n d i c e s L i n k w i t h A I M / A I R ( a i r p

• l

l u t i

• n

m

• d

e l a n d G I S , r e v i s i

• n
• f

d a t a R e v i s i

• n
• f

d a t a L i n k w i t h t h e c

• u

n t r y m

• d

e l s A d d i t i

• n

a l m

• d

u l e s M a n u a l w r i t i n g A d d i t i

• n

a l m

• d

u l e s a n d M a n u a l w r i t i n g F i x s p e c i f i c a t i

• n

a n d d e v e l

• p

m e n t s c h e d u l e i n d e t a i l M a k e a l i n k a g e b e t w e e n l a n d

• u

s e m

• d

e l a n d g l

• b

a l d y n a m i c v e g e t a t i

• n

m

• d

e l L i n k a g e

• f

w a t e r r e s

• u

r c e a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l T

• p
• d
• w

n / C G E E n d

• u

s e , E n e r g y , T e c h n

• l
• g

y B

• t

t

• m
• u

p I m p a c t A s s e s s m e n t

SLIDE 3

Modeling dimension in t he next proj ect

AI M/ Enduse [count ry]

Energy, Mat erial

AI M/ CGE[count ry]

(AI M/ Mat erial)

One region CGE model Generic t ype model AI M/ CGE/ Topdown [global] AI M common Dat abase

Scenarios, Socio-economic f ramework

I n t e r n a t i

• n

a l i n t e r a c t i

• n

a n d s c a l i n g T e c h n

• l
• g

i c a l a b s t r a c t i

• n

S

• c

i

• e

c

• n
• m

i c m a c r

• f

r a m e dat a support dat a archive dat a support dat a archive dat a support dat a archive dat a support dat a archive Parame- t erizat ion Socio- economic macro f rame

Process models [count ry] wat ershed SDB

I t em specif ic dat abase Management / I nst it ut ional aspect s

Aggr egat ion of it em specif ic inf ormat ion t o nat ional scale ef f iciency Socio-economic macro f r ame

SLIDE 4

I ssue dimension of next proj ect

• Three issues of concern which int eract each ot her-

Climat e-neut ral societ y

• Scn. t o low carbon economy

Sust ainable nat ural capit al societ y

• Scn. t o sust ainable wat er-use and land-use

Resource recycling-orient ed societ y

• Scn. t o eco-ef f icient t echnology and inst it ut ion

SLIDE 5

Three approaches in t he next proj ect

AI M/ CGE[global] AI M/ Ecosyst em

[count ry] Regional/ province scale

bot t omup, enduse, SDB approach Wat ershed scale Global Nat ional CGE approach AI M/ Ecosyst em

[global]

Bot t omup/ account ing models AI M/ CGE[count ry] AI M/ Mat erial AI M/ Topdown Energy-Mat erial/ Enduse models

Enduse/ SDB t ype modules Energy enduse Energy renewable Wast e t reat ment / disposal Resource recycling

I mpact [count ry] …general and simplif ied climat e impact model

I mpact [policy]…Simplif ied quick assessment model of climat e change

pert urbat ion by climat e Process/ SDB t ype modules

Land-use Populat ion-urbanizat ion Forest ry Agricult ure Wat er Resource I nf rast ruct ures Enduse Air Load/ emission Transport

SLIDE 6

Fut ure Direct ion of AI M

From t he view point of Asian-Pacif ic environment in t he 21

st cent ury;

1. Focused on t he t hree issues conf ront ed; Scenarios t o 1) Low carbon economy, 2) Eco-ef f icient t echnology and inst it ut ion , 3) Sust ainable wat er-use and land-use

• 2. Focused on 1) Energy, 2) Mat erial, 3) Wat er and Land uses and

t heir cont rol; 3. Three spat ial scales and t hree t emporal scale 1) Global/ Nat ional/ Sub-nat ional or wat ershed, 2) 2020 / 2050/ af t er 2100 and

• 4. I nt ensif y t he role of an int egrat ion plat f orm f or t he relat ed st udy

in Asian-Pacif ic region