From Aspirations to Occupations The Role of Information in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

From Aspirations to Occupations

The Role of Information in Educational and Labor Market Decisions in Moldova Victoria Levin June 24, 2016

Outline

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• Motivation
• Methodology and data
• Findings
• Policy implications

Outline

3

• Motivation
• Methodology and data
• Findings
• Policy implications

4

Source: UN World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision (left) and World Development Indicators (right). 0 50 100 150 200 250 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100+ 50 100 150 200 250 2060 2015

Males Females

Thousand people

Increased productivity is needed to respond to the demographic challenge

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 GDP per person employed (1990 PPP)

Labor productivity in Moldova and comparators, 2012 Age structure in Moldova, 2015 and 2060

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

FYR Macedonia Moldova Armenia Ukraine Russian Federation Kyrgyzstan EU28 Male Female

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Employment-to-population ratios, adult population (15+), 2014

Source: WDI, modeled ILO estimates, (top graph) and School-to-work transition survey 2012-2013 (bottom graph)

NEET rate (population aged 15-29), 2012-2013

Employment rates are very low, with many youth detached from the labor market

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

% of working age population

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 EU10+1 and Turkey Western Balkans LI CIS MI CIS KOS LVA KGZ MDA LTA ROM BLR KAZ TJK MKD SRB BGR CZE HUN POL TUR SVN SVK UKR ARM AZE GEO UZB ALB BIH MNE EST HRV

Number of Countries

Source: BEEPS 2013

Poor labor outcomes may come from skills mismatches

Countries where between 30% and 40% of firms report that “skills” has become a severe constraint to growth

Large shares in upcoming cohorts seem to lack basic cognitive skills

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501 493 484 468 459 390 388 374 362 314 100 200 300 400 500 600 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Score Percent Level 5&6 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Functionally illiterate Overall reading score (right axis)

Proficiency in Reading, Moldova and Regional Comparators, 2010

Source: PISA 2010 results.

Bridging information gaps is critical to reduce skills mismatches

Skills mismatches can arise from:

• Education system
• On-the-job training
• Information gaps

Particular relevance of information gaps in Moldova:

• Midst of economic transition
• Low urbanization
• High migration
• Lack of systematic career guidance

Information constraints can be reduced through low-cost policy interventions

Outline

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• Motivation
• Methodology and data
• Findings
• Policy implications

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• Implemented during the 2014/2015 school year
• Main objective: understand how individuals make their schooling and

jobs decisions

Moldova Jobs and Schooling Decisions Survey

Group type Number of communities Number of Respondents Individual interviews FGDs Individual interviews FGDs 9th graders 23 3 304 26 12th graders 3 306 24 Professional school students 4 31 95 24 Collegium students 3 103 University students 3 3 102 25 Out-of-school youth who are jobless or in occasional jobs 22 3 203 21 Out-of-school youth with complete transition to the labor market No 22 14 Parents of 9th and 12th graders No 2 16 Parents of professional school students No 1 7 Teachers of 9th and 12th grade No 2 16

1 2 FGDs mixing professional school and collegium students and 1 FGD with only professional school students 2 1 FGD with professional school and collegium graduates and 1 FGD with university graduates

Individual interviews: content

• Extent to which

influencers are involved in the decision

• Final decision maker
• Knowledge on

earnings

• Expectations on

entry after education

• Job search methods
• Sources of

information

• Type of information

taken into account

• Background

information

• Household

composition

• Education history

and transitions

• Aspirations

Individuals’ information Education and LM information Decision influencers Labor market

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Students Parents Teachers Young adults

Module I Students’ aspirations and education How choices are made

• Assessment of the community, school

and students

• Assessment of students’ future choices
• Factors that enable or constrain

transitions How choices were made Module II Information sources, use and access Their role as information channels

• Transition into the first

job

• Labor market experience

and values

• Job search methods

Module III Perceptions of career guidance activities

Focus Group Discussions: content

Outline

13

• Motivation
• Methodology and data
• Findings
• Policy implications

Educational and

• ccupational

decisions

15

Vocational education is as popular as general education among 9th graders

27% 25% 29% 4% 3% 7% 32% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% All (N=304) Women (N=171) Men (N=133) All (N=306) Women (N=193) Men (N=112) ...9th grade? …12th grade?

What do you want to do after...?

Professional school Collegium Lyceum University Study abroad Work Other Don't know yet

36%

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0% 20% 40% 60% Good job

• portunities

Interest in field of study Easy to study Immediate acquisition of a profession First option that came to mind Good reputation To please parents Affordability Proximity to home

9th graders: why do you want to continue studying there? Most important reason

Professional school Collegium Lyceum Study abroad

• Moderator: To what extent does your wish to find a job influence

your decisions regarding studies?

• S: 98 percent.
• Moderator: It matters that much?
• All: YES!

Focus group discussion with urban 12th graders

Educational aspirations are driven by perceived job opportunities

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In choosing field of study, students opt for fields where vocation and job opportunities intersect

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Vocation Good job

• pportunities

First option that came to mind Good reputation Immediate acquisition of a profession To please parents Other Easy to study

Why would you choose/are you studying this field of study?

12th graders (prospective) Professional school (retrospective) Collegium (retrospective) University (retrospective)

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However, many students lack occupational aspirations

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9th graders 12th graders Professional school students Collegium students University students

Ideally, what would you like to be doing when you are 30 years old?

Armed Forces Legislators, senior officials and managers Professionals Technicians and Associate Professionals Clerical support workers Service and sales workers Craft and related trades workers Plant and machine operators, and assemblers Don't know

Working as…

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Note: the exact question is “what are the two fields of study you will most likely choose if you continue studying? Indicate the top 2 options”, but the graph only shows the first option Field of study is approximated by type of occupation for the LFS. Additionally, only individuals with collegium education or more aged 25-34 are considered. Source: Moldova Job and Schooling Decisions Survey and National LFS 2014

Gender differences in occupational aspirations are likely to translate to occupational disparities in the labor market

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Science, computing and engeneering Humanities and art Health Social sciences, business and law Construction Education Sevices Agriculture and veterinary Other Manufacturing

What is the field of study you will most likely choose if you continue studying? (12th graders)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Science, computing and engeneering Humanities and art Health Social sciences, business and law Construction Education Sevices Agriculture and veterinary Other Manufacturing

Employment by gender and occupation, LFS 2014

Men Women

The role of information constraints

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There is an information deficit on the labor market

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9th graders (N=304) 12th graders (N=306) Professional school students (N=92) Collegium students (N=100) University students (N=99)

Do you think you have enough information about the labor market? Yes

Men Women

• About half of

collegium students participating in MJSDS underestimates the education required to work in their ideal job

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Notes: Significant differences in the wage index compared to the base category of the 3-year professional school program: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%. The wage index is calculated by setting the perceived monthly wages at age 30 after completing 9th grade as equal to 100. The actual returns to education are based on the results of a Mincer regression controlling for gender, age, marital status, education, and location.

Students perceive increasing returns to education, but certain important misperceptions exist

*** * *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** 100 150 200 250 300 350 9th graders 12th graders Professional school students Collegium students University students LFS 2014 (25- 34 y.o) Perceived returns (MJSDS) Actual returns wage index (9th grade=100)

Perceived and Actual Returns to Education after 9th Grade

3-year program in professional school (base) 12th grade Collegium Bachelor's degree

Information gaps are more severe for disadvantaged students

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* *** 20 40 60 80 100 …to decide what to do after 9th grade? …about the labor market?

Do you think you have enough information...? Yes

Less educated parents More educated parents

Types and sources of information

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3 types of information for different stages

S c h o o l i n g D e c i s i o n s

L a b o r M a r k e t

G e n e r a l T r e n d s i n t h e L M E d u c a t i o n O p t i o n s

Students need general information on industries and professions particularly in the earlier stages, when they are making their educational decisions about what type of career path to take.

9th Grade 12th Grade

Information on the availability and requirements of schooling that match their career aspirations also play an important in their schooling decisions.

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3 types of information for different stages

L a b o r M a r k e t

G e n e r a l T r e n d s i n t h e L M E d u c a t i o n O p t i o n s R e a l L i f e J o b C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

On the career path, this type of information is the most needed following the general professional decisions, to decide on areas of specialization and to build the required skills and experiences to ensure successful entry into the labor market when the time comes. D e c i s i o n p o i n t : W h i c h t y p e o f j o b ( s ) t o a p p l y f o r a f t e r g r a d u a t i o n J o b D e c i s i o n s

12th Grade

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Parents and master teachers are perceived as the most useful source of information but they feel unprepared

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Usefulness (0=do not use; 5=very useful)

"How useful is the information on choices and opportunities after [current educational level] that you

• btain from the following sources?"

9th graders 12th graders Older students

Note: Sample includes 9th graders, 12th graders, and older (professional school, collegium, and university) students.

Assessment

• f career

guidance activities

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Very low students’ attendance and awareness of career guidance activities

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Career

• rientation at

school Alumni talking about their experience Open doors day at a Professional School Open doors day at a Collegium Open doors day at a University Job fair ANOFM seminars Visit to parent's workplace Visit to a firm

Percentage of individuals who haven't attended the following activities

9th graders 12th graders Professional school students Collegium students University students Out-of-school youth jobless or in occasional jobs

30

Internships are perceived as useful and can provide entry point into the labor market

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% All (N=89) Women (N=24) Men (N=64) All (N=86) Women (N=51) Men (N=35) All (N=85) Women (N=56) Men (N=29) Professional school Collegium University

After graduation, how likely are you to start working in the firm where you did your internship/apprenticeship?

Very likely Likely

• Information is valued by students
• Significant information gaps, particularly for

disadvantaged

• Guidance and opinions of parents and master teachers is

most useful

• Internships as most effective career guidance activity

31

Summary of main findings from MJSDS

Outline

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• Motivation
• Methodology and data
• Findings
• Policy implications

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Career guidance policies in other countries

• Labor market observatories (POL)

Improving available labor market information

• Providing information and career guidance to young students (CHE, AUS, FIN)
• Job fairs (AUS)
• Alumni visits (FIN)

Improving existing career guidance activities

• Early identification and targeted support (UK)
• Career counseling by employment services (GER)
• School social responsibility (UK, AUS)
• Pop-up services for remote areas (GER, ZAF, RUS, ARG, TUR)

Assisting disadvantaged students

• Engaging parents (AUS, UK, AZE)
• Partnerships between schools, employers, and PES (GER, UK, AUS)

Reaching out to potential advisers

• Online information on educational pathways and institutions (MEX, BGR, USA)
• Online resources to guide occupational choices (USA, UK)

Developing innovative career guidance tools

• Improving information can improve efficiency in education

and labor market outcomes at a relatively low cost

• An effective career guidance system
• Focuses on exposure to the world of work
• Is anchored in strong networks
• Early, frequent and ample exposure to the world of work

provides specific labor market information sought by students

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What can Moldova learn from other countries?

Thank you

For questions and comments please contact Victoria Levin vlevin@worldbank.org Silvia Guallar Artal sguallarartal@worldbank.org