French Na)onal Ins)tute for Industrial Environment and Risks - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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French Na)onal Ins)tute for Industrial Environment and Risks - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 06, 2022 358 likes •741 views

Air Pollu)on Mi)ga)on How to evaluate the best strategies ? augus)n.cole9e@ineris.fr French Na)onal Ins)tute for Industrial Environment and Risks Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollu9on and Climate Change in

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Air Pollu)on Mi)ga)on How to evaluate the best strategies ? augus)n.cole9e@ineris.fr

French Na)onal Ins)tute for Industrial Environment and Risks

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

  • f Air Pollu9on and Climate Change in Mediterranean Areas

Interna)onal Centre for Theore)cal Physics, Trieste, Italy 23-27 April, 2018

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Integrated Assessment: op)misa)on problem

Human Ac)vity Air Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric Concentra)ons Exposure to Air Pollu)on Impacts

Successive tes)ng different scenarios (« trial & error ») Two-way « op)misa)on »: GAINS approach

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Overview

  • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support

– Assessment

  • Long-term (climate)
  • Mid-term (2020-2030)

– Forecast (days)

  • Trigger short term mi)ga)on measures
  • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
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Overview

  • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support

– Assessment

  • Long-term (climate)
  • Mid-term (2020-2030)

– Forecast (days)

  • Trigger short term mi)ga)on measures
  • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
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Air quality under climate change

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Air quality under climate change

Cost Benefit Analysis

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Emission projec)ons

  • The global energy assessment of the

Interna)onal Energy Agency (2012)

  • Primary energy consump)on in Europe:

0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 140,00 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 EJ

REF - Primary energy consumption - WEU&EEU

0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 70,00 80,00 90,00 100,00 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Business as usual Mi)ga)on

GEOTHERMAL SOLAR WIND HYDRO BIOMASS NUCLEAR GAS OIL COAL

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Future Air Quality: SOMO35 (sum of O3max > 35ppb)

Historical 2050 Reference 2050 Mi9ga9on Difference % historical

  • Projec)ons: status-quo for the Reference, large decrease for the Mi)ga)on
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Health impact assessment

Air Pollu)on Popula)on density Popula)on- weighted pollu)on Rela)ve risk (% increase per unit pollutant) Baseline Mortality Mortality change Death rate Life table and age-vulnerability Years of Life Lost

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Analyse Coût-Bénéfice

  • 100 000

200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000

Energy expenditure Air pollution mitigation cost Health damage Total cost costs, damage in M€/year in 2050 REF 2050 MIT 2050

additional climate mitigation costs: 107,000 air pollution mitigation cost savings: 42,000 avoided health damage: 62,000 net additional costs: 3,500 No climate policy Climate mi)ga)on (2°C)

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Overview

  • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support

– Assessment

  • Long-term (climate)
  • Mid-term (2020-2030)

– Forecast (days)

  • Trigger short term mi)ga)on measures
  • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
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Assessing an emission reduc)on Plan

  • French Na)onal Plan for the Reduc)on of Air

Pollutant Emissions (May 2017)

  • Under the auspices of French Ministry of

Environment

  • Consor)um of

– Energe)c prospec)ve – Air Pollutant emissions – Air Quality Modelling – Health impact assessment

  • Indicators

– Legal – Acceptability – Environment (AQ) – Economics (cost/benefits)

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List of mi)ga)on measures

Increasing taxes on fuels Euro 6 norms for ligh & heavy duty vehicles Electric and hybrid vehicles

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Quan)fica)on in an Air Quality Model

  • Environmental:

– Chimere Chemistry Transport Model + Data Fusion

  • Benefit of the measure for background and peak pollu)on

– Health benefits assessed with AlphaRiskPoll

  • include economic valua)on for cost benefit analysis

Benefit on [PM10] of high perf wood stoves Benefit on [NO2] of reducing access to city centre

% %

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Impact on exceedances of regulatory thresholds

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Overall impact on air quality

  • AQ synthe)c indicator

Increasing taxes on fuels Euro 6 norms for ligh & heavy duty vehicles

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TR9MA: increasing taxes on fuels TR2ME: Euro 6 Norms TR3ME: Electric and hybrid vehicles

Net benefits ( million €)

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Overview

  • Using Air Quality Models for Decision Support

– Assessment

  • Long-term (climate)
  • Mid-term (2020-2030)

– Forecast (days)

  • Trigger short term mi9ga9on measures
  • Raise awareness about the need of long term mi)ga)on
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Forecasts: Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service

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Interac)ve scenario analysis: CAMS Air Control Toolbox

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CAMS ACT: How it works

  • Training scenarios

– Chimere – 3 days forecast (D+0, D+1, D+2) – 0.25deg resolu)on

  • Emission reduc)on of training scenarios

– AGR 60%, AGR 100% – IND 60%, IND 100% – RH 90% – TRA 60%, TRA 100% – AGR 30% & IND 60% – TRA 100% & AGR100% – TRA 30% & IND 60%

  • Surrogate model

– Non linear combina)on of the training senarios – Flexible web tool (immediate response)

𝑆𝐹𝐺=𝐵𝐻𝑆+ ​𝐵𝐻𝑆↑2 +𝐽𝑂𝐸+​𝐽𝑂𝐸↑2 +𝑆𝐼+𝑈𝑆𝐵+​𝑈𝑆𝐵↑2 +𝐵𝐻𝑆×𝐽𝑂𝐸+ 𝑈𝑆𝐵×𝐵𝐻𝑆+𝑈𝑆𝐵×𝐽𝑂𝐸

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CAMS ACT: non-lineari)es

O3 daily max (Paris)

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Case Studies

  • Contribu)ons to air pollu)on episodes:

– Ac)vity sectors:

  • Traffic, industrial, residen)al, agriculture

– Local / non-local sources

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Tools

  • Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service:

– Support to policy

  • h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/
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Contribu)on of Ac)vity Sectors: CAMS Air Control Toolbox

  • h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/CAMS_ACT.html
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Contribu)on of Ac)vity Sectors: CAMS Air Control Toolbox

  • h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/CAMS_ACT.html
  • Raw Forecast (exclude natural sources)

– Adjust color bar => update

  • Select

– Date – Pollutant – Level of reduc)on of air pollutants (100%) – Update colorbar!

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Contribu)on of local sources: CAMS City Alloca)on

  • h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/DailySourceAlloca)on.html
  • Select

– City – Pollutant – Model=EMEP – Date

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Case Study

  • Contribu)on of ac)vity sectors

– h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/CAMS_ACT.html – Raw Forecast (exclude natural sources) – Adjust color bar => update – Date – Pollutant – Level of reduc)on of air pollutants (100%) – Update colorbar!

  • Contribu)on of local/non-local sources

– h9p://policy.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/ DailySourceAlloca)on.html

– City – Pollutant – Model=EMEP – Date

  • Episodes:

– Ac)vity Sectors

  • 2016/12/01 PM10
  • 2015/03/18 PM10
  • 2017/06/21 O3

– Local sources

  • 2016/12/01 versus 2016/12/06 PM10
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20161201: PM10

Reference

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20150318: PM10

Reference

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20170621: O3

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Source Appor)onment

  • 20150318 PM10 / 20161201 PM10 / 20170621 O3
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City Alloca)on: December 1st versus December 6th 2016 (PM10)

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City Alloca)on: June 21 2018 (O3)

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Benefits of long term ac)on

Applying na9on-wide emission reduc9ons as defined in the 2030 NEC objec9ves, the episode would have been much smaller

20161201, PM10 Under NEC2030 emissions

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INERIS Youtube Channel https://youtu.be/xuUsEOL0Lj8