forecasting costs
play

Forecasting Costs Ed Zarenski 5-22-17 edzarenski.com Forecasting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 18, 2024 •436 likes •628 views

Welcome Advancing Building Estimation Forecasting Costs Ed Zarenski 5-22-17 edzarenski.com Forecasting Overview Labor - wages, availability and productivity Material cost and availability Inputs / Bid price / Final price

  1. Welcome Advancing Building Estimation Forecasting Costs Ed Zarenski 5-22-17 edzarenski.com

  2. Forecasting Overview  Labor - wages, availability and productivity  Material cost and availability  Inputs / Bid price / Final price  Industry workload  Contractor workload  Inflation  Project Cost edzarenski.com

  3. Forecasting the Future edzarenski.com

  4. Forecasting the Future Common Errors in Forecasting  Misusing Starts Data  Not Adjusting History for Inflation  Using Inappropriate Indices  Ignoring Productivity  Considering Revenue = Volume  Staffing to meet Revenue edzarenski.com

  5. Forecasting the Future Project Perspective  Resources  Inflation  Budget / Cost Corporate Perspective  Market Share  Growth = Work Volume  Size = Revenue and Staff edzarenski.com

  6. Project Inflation Impact  Labor = 30% to 40% of project  A 3% increase = 0.9% to 1.2% inflation  Material = 40% to 50% of project  Increase 3% = 1.2% to 1.5% inflation  Margins = applied to 100% of project  Increase 3% = 3% to inflation edzarenski.com

  7. Project Inflation Impact Project Cost Inflation Impact of +10% increase in cost of material • +0.06% Gypsum Board • +o.40% Concrete • +0.40% Copper • +1.00% Steel edzarenski.com

  8. Additional Causes of Inflation  Labor Availability  Productivity  Schedule Extension  Spending / Work Volume How spending is moving has more impact on inflation than labor & mtrl edzarenski.com

  9. Inflation vs Spending/Volume edzarenski.com

  10. Sources of Forecasting Data Starting Backlog + New Starts creates Cash Flow  Nonres Bldgs Spending 70%-75 from Starting Backlog  Residential Spending 70% from New Starts Cash Flow = Spending  Backlog and New Starts is not Spending  Cash Flow is Spending edzarenski.com

  11. Sources of Forecasting Data edzarenski.com

  12. Sources of Forecasting Data Spending = Revenue Constant $ Spending is Volume Constant $ Spending = adjusted for inflation Volume dictates Staffing Needs edzarenski.com

  13. Sources of Forecasting Data edzarenski.com

  14. Types of Inflation Indices  LESS USEFUL  MORE USEFUL  Inputs  Outputs  PPI  Selling Price  Labor & Material  Final Cost  Market Basket  Trade  Composite  Building Type  Market Sector edzarenski.com

  15. Complete Cost Indices NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS  Construction Analytics Building Cost Index  Turner Cost Index  Rider Levett Bucknall Actual Cost Index INFRASTRUCTURE  I H S Power Plant, Pipeline, Refine Costs  National Highway Construction Cost Index  Bureau of Reclamation Construction Cost Trends RESIDENTIAL  U S Census Constant Quality Single Family House edzarenski.com

  16. Construction Inflation Indices edzarenski.com

  17. Construction Inflation Indices edzarenski.com

  18. Thank You Ed Zarenski Construction Analytics edzarenski@gmail.com @EdZarenski edzarenski.com edzarenski.com

Download Presentation
Download Policy: The content available on the website is offered to you 'AS IS' for your personal information and use only. It cannot be commercialized, licensed, or distributed on other websites without prior consent from the author. To download a presentation, simply click this link. If you encounter any difficulties during the download process, it's possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.

Recommend

Welcome to Forecasting Using R Rob Hyndman Author, forecast Forecasting Using R What you will

Welcome to Forecasting Using R Rob Hyndman Author, forecast Forecasting Using R What you will

FORECASTING USING R Welcome to Forecasting Using R Rob Hyndman Author, forecast Forecasting Using R What you will learn Exploring and visualizing time series Simple benchmark methods for forecasting Exponential smoothing and

715 views • 22 slides
Humans and Algorithms: Creation and Measurement of Economic Value in Demand Forecasting Peter

Humans and Algorithms: Creation and Measurement of Economic Value in Demand Forecasting Peter

Humans and Algorithms: Creation and Measurement of Economic Value in Demand Forecasting Peter Kauf, PrognosiX AG Thomas Ott, IAS, ZHAW long shelf life low costs low margins long shelf life Short shelf life low costs high costs low

889 views • 62 slides
Forecasting the use, costs and benefits of HSR in the years ahead Samer Madanat UC Berkeley

Forecasting the use, costs and benefits of HSR in the years ahead Samer Madanat UC Berkeley

Forecasting the use, costs and benefits of HSR in the years ahead Samer Madanat UC Berkeley Outline Demand models and ridership forecasts Errors in demand models and consequences Case study: the CA HSR Conclusion The

322 views • 20 slides
Costs 26 th May 2011 Agenda Introduction Overview of Dispatch Balancing Costs (30 mins)

Costs 26 th May 2011 Agenda Introduction Overview of Dispatch Balancing Costs (30 mins)

Operations Seminar Managing Dispatch Balancing Costs 26 th May 2011 Agenda Introduction Overview of Dispatch Balancing Costs (30 mins) Ongoing Management of Dispatch Balancing Costs (15 mins) Forecasting Dispatch Balancing Costs

1.15k views • 87 slides
Forecasting 21 January 2013 1 FCAS Agenda Business Goals & Forecasting Approach

Forecasting 21 January 2013 1 FCAS Agenda Business Goals & Forecasting Approach

Forecasting 21 January 2013 1 FCAS Agenda Business Goals & Forecasting Approach Assumptions Data Visualization Forecasting Fresh Milk Sales ( SKU: Amul Taaza ) Forecasting Dahi and Yoghurt Sales (SKU: Saras

782 views • 11 slides
Lecture 10 Forecasting and Model Fitting Colin Rundel 02/20/2017 1 Forecasting 2 Forecasting

Lecture 10 Forecasting and Model Fitting Colin Rundel 02/20/2017 1 Forecasting 2 Forecasting

Lecture 10 Forecasting and Model Fitting Colin Rundel 02/20/2017 1 Forecasting 2 Forecasting ARMA Forecasts for stationary models necessarily revert to mean Differenced models revert to trend (usually a line) Why? AR gradually

476 views • 44 slides
Flood Forecasting Initiative Guy Shalev Flooding impact Flood Forecasting Flood Forecasting

Flood Forecasting Initiative Guy Shalev Flooding impact Flood Forecasting Flood Forecasting

Flood Forecasting Initiative Guy Shalev Flooding impact Flood Forecasting Flood Forecasting Initiative Initiative The Google Flood Forecasting Initiative Goal: Scalable high-accuracy high-resolution flood forecasts and warnings globally

550 views • 23 slides
2018-2019 FORECASTING INTRODUCTION TO COUNSELORS FRESHMAN YEAR REQUIREMENTS FORECASTING

2018-2019 FORECASTING INTRODUCTION TO COUNSELORS FRESHMAN YEAR REQUIREMENTS FORECASTING

CAPPOOSE HIGH SCHOOL 2018-2019 FORECASTING INTRODUCTION TO COUNSELORS FRESHMAN YEAR REQUIREMENTS FORECASTING Course Description Guide Forecasting Form CLASSES AVAILABLE AT SHS MS. PINKSTAFF Last names A-K MS. SCOTT Last

774 views • 55 slides
Box-Jenkins Forecasting

Box-Jenkins Forecasting

Department of Logistics Management Box-Jenkins Forecasting Trend, seasonal factors, causal forecasting

355 views • 24 slides
Electricity price forecasting: from prob- abilistic to deep learning approaches TU Delft &

Electricity price forecasting: from prob- abilistic to deep learning approaches TU Delft &

Electricity price forecasting: from prob- abilistic to deep learning approaches TU Delft & VITO-Energyville Jesus Lago October 10, 2019 Outline Introduction 1 Time Series Forecasting 2 Point forecasting 3 Probability forecasting 4

1.12k views • 84 slides
WELCOME! FORECASTING In co m in g Ju n io r s What to Consider When Forecasting Graduation

WELCOME! FORECASTING In co m in g Ju n io r s What to Consider When Forecasting Graduation

WELCOME! FORECASTING In co m in g Ju n io r s What to Consider When Forecasting Graduation Requirem ents General University Requirem ents Honor Roll & NCAA Requirem ents Scholars Diplom a See the course planning guide for m

553 views • 27 slides
Air quality forecasting in Europe Forecasting emissions Cross-cutting activities with working

Air quality forecasting in Europe Forecasting emissions Cross-cutting activities with working

Air quality forecasting in Europe Forecasting emissions Cross-cutting activities with working groups F.Meleux DCO - 08/09/2004 - titre - 1 Objectives of air quality forecasting systems provide every day information related to the air

281 views • 15 slides
What are Variable Costs? y o u r k n o w l e d g e p a r t n e r These are costs paid only

What are Variable Costs? y o u r k n o w l e d g e p a r t n e r These are costs paid only

What are Variable Costs? y o u r k n o w l e d g e p a r t n e r These are costs paid only when the machine works Running costs Calculated per hour Components: Fuel Oil and lubricants Repair and maintenance Tyres

173 views • 15 slides
Why forecasting? Forecasting is a natural first step to decision-making Believing we know what

Why forecasting? Forecasting is a natural first step to decision-making Believing we know what

Why forecasting? Forecasting is a natural first step to decision-making Believing we know what will happen helps making decisions but mainly, makes us more confident about it! Key application areas include: weather and climate economics and

327 views • 10 slides
1 4D Forecasting: Sequential Forecasting of 100,000 Points Xinshuo Weng 1 , Jianren Wang 1,

1 4D Forecasting: Sequential Forecasting of 100,000 Points Xinshuo Weng 1 , Jianren Wang 1,

1 4D Forecasting: Sequential Forecasting of 100,000 Points Xinshuo Weng 1 , Jianren Wang 1, Sergey Levine 2 , Kris Kitani 1 , Nick Rhinehart 2 1 Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University 2 Berkeley Artificial Intelligence Research Lab,

550 views • 13 slides
Tool Demonstration: Demand Forecasting PACE D 2.0 RE Team Agenda Demand Forecasting

Tool Demonstration: Demand Forecasting PACE D 2.0 RE Team Agenda Demand Forecasting

PARTNERSHIP TO ADVANCE CLEAN ENERGY DEPLOYMENT (PACE-D 2.0 RE) TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM April 2020 Tool Demonstration: Demand Forecasting PACE D 2.0 RE Team Agenda Demand Forecasting Demand Forecasting Tool: Why? About Tool

314 views • 17 slides
Implementation within a System of Care Erin M. Espinosa, PhD & Bonnie Evans, MPsych Texas

Implementation within a System of Care Erin M. Espinosa, PhD & Bonnie Evans, MPsych Texas

Staying on Track Using Data to Monitor and Change Course During Implementation within a System of Care Erin M. Espinosa, PhD & Bonnie Evans, MPsych Texas Center, Institute for Innovation & Implementation, University of Maryland,

130 views • 8 slides
Are e bus business eli elites still till an an eng engin ine of of Eur European integ

Are e bus business eli elites still till an an eng engin ine of of Eur European integ

Are e bus business eli elites still till an an eng engin ine of of Eur European integ egratio ion? Nicol Conti (Unitelma Sapienza) nicolo.conti@unitelmasapienza.it Setti ting the the grou ound Business elites as central actor

453 views • 8 slides
A Progressive Candidate Defending the Status Quo: Clintons Latino National Outreach and the

A Progressive Candidate Defending the Status Quo: Clintons Latino National Outreach and the

A Progressive Candidate Defending the Status Quo: Clintons Latino National Outreach and the Axiological Battles During the 2016 Election JUAN S. LARROSA-FUENTES TEMPLE UNIVERSITY GLOBAL FUSION, 2017 Axiological Battles During the 2016

369 views • 13 slides
WORKERS OF THE WORLD ? A DIGITAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL SCOPE OF BELGIAN

WORKERS OF THE WORLD ? A DIGITAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL SCOPE OF BELGIAN

DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY RESEARCH GROUP SOCIAL HISTORY SINCE 1750 GHENT CENTRE FOR DIGITAL HUMANITIES WORKERS OF THE WORLD ? A DIGITAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL SCOPE OF BELGIAN SOCIALIST NEWSPAPERS, 1885-1940 Christophe

489 views • 15 slides
Full Year Results Presentation for the year ended 31 December 2015 1 March 2016 1 Disclaimer

Full Year Results Presentation for the year ended 31 December 2015 1 March 2016 1 Disclaimer

Full Year Results Presentation for the year ended 31 December 2015 1 March 2016 1 Disclaimer This presentation is not intended to, and does not constitute or form part of, any offer, invitation or the solicitation of an offer to purchase,

958 views • 65 slides
THE FUTURE OF DSH UNCOMPENSATED CARE William D. Clark, CPA, FHFMA Director, BKD, LLP 1

THE FUTURE OF DSH UNCOMPENSATED CARE William D. Clark, CPA, FHFMA Director, BKD, LLP 1

8/11/2016 THE FUTURE OF DSH UNCOMPENSATED CARE William D. Clark, CPA, FHFMA Director, BKD, LLP 1 8/11/2016 AGENDA DSH changes mandated by Section 3133 of Affordable Care Act Empirical DSH Payment Uncompensated Care DSH UC

371 views • 9 slides
New Jersey Board of Public Utilities Energy Master Plan Clean and Renewable Power September 7,

New Jersey Board of Public Utilities Energy Master Plan Clean and Renewable Power September 7,

New Jersey Board of Public Utilities Energy Master Plan Clean and Renewable Power September 7, 2018 Competitive Power Ventures S I LV E R S P R I N G | B R A I N T R E E | S A N F R A N C I S C O Competitive Power Ventures (CPV)

471 views • 8 slides
Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Call Presented by: Matt Simoncini, President and CEO Jeff Vanneste,

Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Call Presented by: Matt Simoncini, President and CEO Jeff Vanneste,

Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Call Presented by: Matt Simoncini, President and CEO Jeff Vanneste, SVP and CFO Ray Scott, EVP and President, Seating Frank Orsini, SVP and President, E-Systems October 25, 2017 Investor Information

311 views • 28 slides

More recommend