Forecasting and Optimization Methods Laura Ramrez Elizondo Learning - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Forecasting and Optimization Methods Laura Ramírez Elizondo

Learning Objectives • What is the importance of forecasting? • What are the main forecasting methods? • What are the main optimization techniques used in microgrids? • How is an optimization problem formulated?

Demand Uncertainty

Euro/MWh Euro/MWh Price Volatility

Forecasting Summary Parameters

Forecasting Methods – Quantitative methods: • Available historical data • Data as numerical time series – Qualitative methods: • Little/no available information • Based on expert knowledge

Types of Optimization

Optimization Objectives

Mathematical Formulation

Mathematical Formulation is the bid for active power from the 𝑗 − 𝑢ℎ DG source is the active power production of the 𝑗 − 𝑢ℎ DG source is the active power sold to the grid is the number of the DG sources that 𝑂 offer bids for active power production is the price on the open market for active power is the bid of the 𝑘 − 𝑢ℎ load of the loads L 𝑁 is the number of loads that offer bids

Mathematical Formulation

Summary Optimization problem mathematical formulation: - Type of optimization - Objective function - Assumptions - Constraints