Food security and climate change Integrating a cross-cutting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Food security and climate change

Integrating a cross-cutting Integrating a cross-cutting issue into sector policies and their practical application

Topics

• What is driving the food security

crisis?

• How it is threatened further by
• How it is threatened further by

climate change?

• What policies are needed?
• How can they be implemented?
• Regional initiatives

Exists when….....

“All people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and

Food security

“All people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”

(FAO)

• Agricultural production is not keeping pace

with population growth

• Two thirds of PICs are net importers of food

The Pacific at Risk

• Two thirds of PICs are net importers of food
• Obesity, diabetes and heart disease are

prevalent due to low quality imports

New Threats

Urban drift

Urban Rural

• Reduced access to productive land
• Loss of traditional knowledge for producing food
• Weaker family support systems
• Poverty through unemployment

Fish and food security

Per capita consumption is high >35 kg for 11 PICTs, world average is 16 kg Rural areas >90 kg for 7 PICTs Rural areas >90 kg for 7 PICTs Subsistence 60-90% caught by household Fish supplies most animal protein in the diet - 70-80% in coastal rural areas

Fish and food security

Forecasts of fish needed for food security by 2030

Urban Rural Rural

New threats

• CLIMATE CHANGE

* Agriculture * Fisheries

Climate feature Low emissions (B1) 2035 High emissions (A2) 2035 Low emissions (B1) 2100 High emissions (A2) 2100 Surface atmospheric

• temp. (0C)

0.5-0.8 0.5-0.8 1.0-1.5 2.5-3.0 Sea surface

• temp. (0C)

SST changes are similar to those for surface temperatures Sea level rise (cm)* 8 8 18-38 23-51

Projected climate for the Pacific under low and high emissions scenarios

(cm)* Rainfall 5-15% increase in tropics, decreases in subtropics 5-15% increase in tropics, decreases in subtropics 10-20% increase in tropics, decreases in subtropics 10-20% increase in tropics, decreases in subtropics Cyclone frequency and intensity Cyclones less frequent but more intense (cyclone belt only) ENSO ENSO events will continue but uncertain if they will increase Aragonite saturation levels in ocean Adequate to marginal for coral reefs Adequate to marginal for coral reefs Marginal Low to risky for coral reefs CO2 (ppm) ~400 ~400? 450-500 750-800

Why are we so concerned?

Peruvian anchovy

83 98 72

El Nino

20N

40N 130E 150E 20S 160E 120E 140E 170E 170W 180 160W 140W 10S 150W 130W

30S

30N 10N

Skipjack tuna

El Nino La Nina

Possible impacts on fisheries

• Changes to the distribution of tuna

Preliminary modeling

Tonnes of skipjack tuna per km2

Possible impacts on fisheries

• Decline in coral reefs and coastal fisheries

Possible impacts on fisheries

• Damage to infrastructure

Possible impacts on fisheries

• Greater costs for safe fishing at sea

Possible Impacts on fisheries

• Difficulties in developing pond aquaculture

due to flooding

Possible Impacts on agriculture

Loss of crops due to floods , droughts , soil erosion and salination Increased risks of pests and diseases Reduced yields Reduced yields Increased dependence

• n imported foods

Poorer diets Increased NCDs

National and Regional Policies

• Diversify production to adapt to climate change
• Boost local production of crops and fish through

investment in science

• Make agriculture attractive to youth
• Make agriculture attractive to youth
• Strengthen infrastructure for food distribution
• Reduce the burden of higher prices
• Develop peri-urban and urban agriculture
• Raise awareness of nutritional value local foods
• Implement effective biosecurity

Cross cutting issues

• Undertake vulnerability analyses for all food

production sectors

• Raise awareness of threats to food security and

available solutions at the community level available solutions at the community level

• Provide incentives for economic growth to

increase the options for achieving food security

• Appropriateness of agriculture and fisheries

courses taught in tertiary institutes

Increasing access to fish

• Storing and distributing low-value tuna

landed by industrial fleets

Implementing policies

Implementing policies

• Low cost, inshore fish aggregating

devices (FADs)

Increasing access to fish Increasing access to fish

Implementing policies

• Small pond aquaculture

• Salt/drought/flood tolerant crops and

varieties resistant to pests and diseases

Implementing policies

Develop ‘climate ready’ crops

favoured by climate change

Preparing for climate change now

• Diversify food production systems to

build resilience of rural communities

the more options available, the more

likely some will not be affected, or likely some will not be affected, or favoured, by climate change

• Reduce stresses on habitats and stocks

to assist them to adapt

• Expect the unexpected!

Possible Outcomes

• Reef fish become scarcer

Solutions available through diversification

• Rely more on tuna for food

Oceanic Coastal Aqua Oceanic Coastal Aqua

5000 10000 15000 20000

Fish needed for food in 2030 (tonnes)

Possible Outcomes

40N 160E 120E 140E 180 160W 140W 30N

• Distribution of tuna changes

20N

130E 150E 20S 170E 170W 10S 150W 130W

30S

N 10N

Solutions available through diversification

• Expand small pond aquaculture

Oceanic Coastal Aqua Oceanic Coastal Aqua

5000 10000 15000 20000

Fish needed for food in 2030 (tonnes)

High-Level Conference on World Food Security FAO, Rome,2008

• Attended by 181 countries, which pledged to:

* Embrace food security as a matter of permanent

national policy * Renew commitment to achieving World Food Summit objectives and MDGs

Regionalizing commitments of HLC

Short-term measures

Respond to urgent requests for assistance * Agencies assure resources for ‘safety net’ operations

Regional Action

* Pacific Disaster Net * Red Cross/ Red Cresent Programmes * Humanitarian aid from for ‘safety net’ operations * Agencies enhance co-

• peration in emergencies

* Deliver food in emergencies ASAP *Donors to provide budget support for low-income countries * Humanitarian aid from regional donors * FAO direct inputs in reponse to soaring food prices

Regionalizing Commitments of HLC

Short-term measures

Immediate support for agricultural production & trade * Revise policies to help farmers increase production

Regional Action

* CROP Agencies, FAO, IFAD

farmers increase production and supply markets * Improve access to fertilizers, seed and technical assistance for poor farmers * Moderate fluctuations in grain prices and stockpile food * Minimise restrictive trade that increases price volatility

*FAO direct assistance to vulnerable groups in rural communities * Regional development partners *Regional development partners * Doha Development Agenda ; Promote ‘Aid for Trade’

Regionalizing Commitments of HLC

Longer-term measures

* Policies to support poor in rural, peri-urban and urban areas

Regional Action

* Strengthening infrastructure for food distribution, improved shipping services (MRD) * Making agriculture attractive * Making agriculture attractive to youth *Developing urban agriculture Fiji’s ‘Plant 5 a day’ campaign for backyard gardening. * Retaining low value tuna for storage and sale * Raising awareness of the nutritional value of local foods

Regionalizing Commitments of HLC

Longer-term measures

* Increase resilience of food production systems to climate change

Regional Action

* Assess vulnerability of tuna and coastal fisheries, and agriculture, to climate change * Diversifying subsistence fishing through inshore FADs and small through inshore FADs and small pond aquaculture * Salt/drought/flood tolerant ‘climate ready’ crops * Crop varieties resistant to pests and diseases favoured by climate change * AusAID, EU, USAID, FAO and GTZ

Regionalizing Commitments of HLC

Longer-term measures

* Address challenges and

• pportunities posed by

biofuels

Regional Action

*Thorough assessment of impacts on food security *Biodiesel from coconut oil? *Cassava in PNG and Fiji *Cassava in PNG and Fiji

Regionalizing Commitments of HLC

Longer-term measures

* Step up investment in science and technology for food and agriculture

Regional Action

* Centre for Crops and Trees * Centre of Excellence for Atoll Agriculture * Improve biosecurity and * Improve biosecurity and disease eradication measures * Incorporate benefits of traditional agriculture * Aquaculture * Post-harvest for fish in rural areas * Address difficulties in achieving economies of scale

Regionalizing Commitments of HLC

Longer-term measures

* Monitor and analyse food security in all its dimensions

Regional Action

*Forecasts of fish needed for food security by 2030 *Use of HIES and censuses to measure success of policies to measure success of policies to achieve food security for rapidly growing populations

Thank You