Food security and climate change Integrating a cross-cutting Integrating a cross-cutting issue into sector policies and their practical application
Topics • What is driving the food security crisis? • How it is threatened further by • How it is threatened further by climate change? • What policies are needed? • How can they be implemented? • Regional initiatives
Food security E xists when…..... “ All people, at all times, have physical, social “ All people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO)
The Pacific at Risk • Agricultural production is not keeping pace with population growth • Two thirds of PICs are net importers of food • Two thirds of PICs are net importers of food • Obesity, diabetes and heart disease are prevalent due to low quality imports
New Threats Urban drift Urban Rural • Reduced access to productive land • Loss of traditional knowledge for producing food • Weaker family support systems • Poverty through unemployment
Fish and food security � Per capita consumption is high >35 kg for 11 PICTs, world average is 16 kg � Rural areas >90 kg for 7 PICTs � Rural areas >90 kg for 7 PICTs � Subsistence 60-90% caught by household � Fish supplies most animal protein in the diet - 70-80% in coastal rural areas
Fish and food security Forecasts of fish needed for food security by 2030 Urban Rura l Rura l
New threats • CLIMATE CHANGE * Agriculture * Fisheries
Projected climate for the Pacific under low and high emissions scenarios Climate feature Low emissions High emissions Low emissions High emissions (B1) 2035 (A2) 2035 (B1) 2100 (A2) 2100 Surface atmospheric 0.5-0.8 0.5-0.8 1.0-1.5 2.5-3.0 temp. ( 0 C) Sea surface temp. ( 0 C) SST changes are similar to those for surface temperatures Sea level rise 8 8 18-38 23-51 (cm)* (cm)* 5-15% increase 5-15% increase 10-20% increase 10-20% increase Rainfall in tropics, in tropics, in tropics, in tropics, decreases in decreases in decreases in decreases in subtropics subtropics subtropics subtropics Cyclone frequency and Cyclones less frequent but more intense (cyclone belt only) intensity ENSO ENSO events will continue but uncertain if they will increase Aragonite Adequate to Adequate to Marginal Low to risky for saturation marginal for marginal for coral reefs levels in ocean coral reefs coral reefs CO 2 (ppm) ~400 ~400? 450-500 750-800
Why are we so concerned? El Nino 72 83 98 Peruvian anchovy 120E 140E 160E 180 160W 140W 40N 30N La Nina El Nino 20N Skipjack tuna 10N 0 10S 20S 30S 130E 150E 170E 170W 150W 130W
Possible impacts on fisheries • Changes to the distribution of tuna Preliminary modeling Tonnes of skipjack tuna per km 2
Possible impacts on fisheries • Decline in coral reefs and coastal fisheries
Possible impacts on fisheries • Damage to infrastructure
Possible impacts on fisheries • Greater costs for safe fishing at sea
Possible Impacts on fisheries • Difficulties in developing pond aquaculture due to flooding
Possible Impacts on agriculture Increased risks of Loss of crops due to pests and diseases floods , droughts , soil erosion and salination Reduced yields Reduced yields Increased dependence on imported foods Poorer diets Increased NCDs
National and Regional Policies • Diversify production to adapt to climate change • Boost local production of crops and fish through investment in science • Make agriculture attractive to youth • Make agriculture attractive to youth • Strengthen infrastructure for food distribution • Reduce the burden of higher prices • Develop peri-urban and urban agriculture • Raise awareness of nutritional value local foods • Implement effective biosecurity
Cross cutting issues • Undertake vulnerability analyses for all food production sectors • Raise awareness of threats to food security and available solutions at the community level available solutions at the community level • Provide incentives for economic growth to increase the options for achieving food security • Appropriateness of agriculture and fisheries courses taught in tertiary institutes
Implementing policies � Increasing access to fish • Storing and distributing low-value tuna landed by industrial fleets
Implementing policies • Low cost, inshore fish aggregating devices (FADs) Increasing access to fish Increasing access to fish
Implementing policies • Small pond aquaculture
Implementing policies � Develop ‘climate ready’ crops • Salt/drought/flood tolerant crops and varieties resistant to pests and diseases favoured by climate change
Preparing for climate change now • Diversify food production systems to build resilience of rural communities � the more options available, the more likely some will not be affected, or likely some will not be affected, or favoured, by climate change • Reduce stresses on habitats and stocks to assist them to adapt • Expect the unexpected!
Possible Outcomes • Reef fish become scarcer
Solutions available through diversification • Rely more on tuna for food Fish needed for food in 2030 (tonnes ) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Oceanic Coastal Aqua Oceanic Coastal Aqua
Possible Outcomes • Distribution of tuna changes 120E 140E 160E 180 160W 140W 40N 30N N 20N 10N 0 10S 20S 30S 130E 150E 170E 170W 150W 130W
Solutions available through diversification • Expand small pond aquaculture Fish needed for food in 2030 (tonnes) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Oceanic Coastal Aqua Oceanic Coastal Aqua
High-Level Conference on World Food Security FAO, Rome,2008 • Attended by 181 countries, which pledged to: * Embrace food security as a matter of permanent national policy * Renew commitment to achieving World Food Summit objectives and MDGs
Regionalizing commitments of HLC Short-term measures Regional Action Respond to urgent requests * Pacific Disaster Net for assistance * Red Cross/ Red Cresent * Agencies assure resources Programmes for ‘safety net’ operations for ‘safety net’ operations * Humanitarian aid from * Humanitarian aid from * Agencies enhance co- regional donors operation in emergencies * FAO direct inputs in reponse * Deliver food in emergencies to soaring food prices ASAP *Donors to provide budget support for low-income countries
Regionalizing Commitments of HLC Short-term measures Regional Action Immediate support for agricultural production & trade * Revise policies to help * CROP Agencies, FAO, IFAD farmers increase production farmers increase production and supply markets *FAO direct assistance to * Improve access to fertilizers, vulnerable groups in rural seed and technical assistance communities for poor farmers * Regional development partners * Moderate fluctuations in grain prices and stockpile food *Regional development partners * Minimise restrictive trade * Doha Development Agenda ; that increases price volatility Promote ‘Aid for Trade’
Regionalizing Commitments of HLC Regional Action Longer-term measures * Policies to support poor in * Strengthening infrastructure rural, peri-urban and urban for food distribution, improved areas shipping services (MRD) * Making agriculture attractive * Making agriculture attractive to youth *Developing urban agriculture Fiji’s ‘Plant 5 a day’ campaign for backyard gardening. * Retaining low value tuna for storage and sale * Raising awareness of the nutritional value of local foods
Regionalizing Commitments of HLC Regional Action Longer-term measures * Assess vulnerability of tuna and * Increase resilience of food coastal fisheries, and agriculture, production systems to climate to climate change change * Diversifying subsistence fishing through inshore FADs and small through inshore FADs and small pond aquaculture * Salt/drought/flood tolerant ‘climate ready’ crops * Crop varieties resistant to pests and diseases favoured by climate change * AusAID, EU, USAID, FAO and GTZ
Regionalizing Commitments of HLC Regional Action Longer-term measures * Address challenges and *Thorough assessment of opportunities posed by impacts on food security biofuels *Biodiesel from coconut oil? *Cassava in PNG and Fiji *Cassava in PNG and Fiji
Regionalizing Commitments of HLC Regional Action Longer-term measures * Centre for Crops and Trees * Step up investment in science and technology for * Centre of Excellence for Atoll food and agriculture Agriculture * Improve biosecurity and * Improve biosecurity and disease eradication measures * Incorporate benefits of traditional agriculture * Aquaculture * Post-harvest for fish in rural areas * Address difficulties in achieving economies of scale
Regionalizing Commitments of HLC Regional Action Longer-term measures * Monitor and analyse food *Forecasts of fish needed for security in all its dimensions food security by 2030 *Use of HIES and censuses to measure success of policies to measure success of policies to achieve food security for rapidly growing populations
Thank You
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