SLIDE 10 10
"...humans are incredibly good at linking cause and effect—sometimes too good..."
"... it means that when you see something occur in a complex adaptive system, your mind is going to create a narrative to explain what happened—even though cause and effect are not comprehensible in that kind of system."
Embracing Complexity, An interview with Michael Mauboussin by Tim Sullivan Harvard Business Review 2011
https://hbr.org/2011/09/embracing-complexity/
Reason vs. Cause
- “Reason" and "cause" are not
contradictory, nor are they synonymous
- Confusion between them: delays
mental health care for mood disorders much more than care for diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cancer (?)
Does the Trap of Meaning
hypomania?
Yes!
Trap of Meaning references:
Kendler KS, Gardner CO. Dependent Stressful Life Events and Prior Depressive Episodes in the Prediction of Major Depression: The Problem of Causal Inference in Psychiatric Epidemiology. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2010;67(11):1120-1127. Kendler KS, Myers J, and Halberstadt LJ. Do reasons for major depression act as causes? Molecular Psychiatry (2011) 16, 626–633; doi:10.1038/mp.2011.22; published online 8 March 2011. Kendler KS, Myers J, and Halberstadt LJ. Should the Diagnosis of Major Depression made Independent of or Dependent upon the Psychosocial Context? Psychol Med. 2010 May ; 40(5): 771–780. doi:10.1017/S0033291709990845.
Lyketsos CG, Chisolm MS. The trap of meaning: a public health tragedy. JAMA. 2009 Jul 22;302(4):432-3. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.1059.