fellow delegate at the 24 th EFC Annual Assembly in Copenhagen. The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Supporting a Resilient Future for

Communities in Europe & Global City Regions

Thank you for visiting our website, particularly if you are a fellow delegate at the 24th EFC Annual Assembly in Copenhagen. The Trust was set up in 2011 to help accelerate and scale up the the transformative change we need in city regions to cope with climate change, resource shortages and associated financial and social instability. We are looking for Foundations and other partners to help city regions worldwide to become more sustainable by creating world- leading open-source shared approaches which selected demonstration regions show really work. You can find out more about the opportunities in the following few slides. Peter Head is at the Assembly and can be contacted on peter.head@ecosequestrust.org

Prof Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA

Executive Chairman

• Global Challenges-The Ecological Age
• Creating The Ecological Sequestration Trust
• Open-source agent based urban-rural human,

ecology resource and economics model and the Regional Collaboratory

• Governance policy setting and new financing

models for cities

• Retrofitting “project portfolio”

Presentation content

Our Shrinking Earth

World population grows 80million every year and as a result the area of land available on the planet to support life is reducing every year. Over the last 100 years the average amount of land available for food, energy, water and materials has fallen from 8HA per person to 2 HA per person. We live as if this has not happened. At the same time the biocapacity of the planet to support life is being reduced.

1900

7.91 7.91

1950

5.15 5.15

1987

2.60 2.60

2005

2.02 2.02

2030

1.69 1.69

2050

1.44 1.44

YEAR Hectares of Land Per Capita consumed USA 9.5 EU 3 to 7 China 2.8 India 1.5 China’s ecological footprint is growing at 4% per year which means finding an area twice the size of France every year to support urbanisation.

(CO – 50%)

2

1.44GHA/Capita

Ecological Footprint

HDI Increase

Human Development Index

= 2050 Ecological Age

Factor 4 to 5 reduction in EU

+ +

Global target for 9 billion people in 2050

Peter Head makes the case in his Brunel Lecture Paper that we need to move to an “Ecological Age” model in which city regions reduce non-renewable resource use and greehouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 to 5 by 2050. The Trust aims to show how this can be done in one or two demonstration regions and then how it can be scaled up.

http://www.arup.com/~/media/Files/PDF/Publications/Research_and_whitepapers/Ecological_Age/EngineersRole.ashx

Next 10 to 15 years (by 2030 ) are critical to get on track

The evolution of our economy from an increasingly resource-constrained ‘take-make- dispose’ model towards one that is circular and re- generative by intention poses a huge opportunity for business innovation. This report from the Ellen Macarthur Foundation highlights the significant economic opportunities, both immediate and long-term, that are available across the EU. The report offers the catalyst for a sector wide re-design revolution which matches the

• bjectives of the Ecological Age.

TOWARDS THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY January 2012 THE ELLEN MACARTHUR FOUNDATION

What will this approach mean for successful global businesses?

• The adoption of systems-based innovation and business

strategies

• Smarter working across traditional boundaries: more cross-

sector, cross-chain, cross-market, public-private integration and collaboration

• Water-food-energy will be as strong a driver as CO2
• Volatile resource prices will be cooled through recycle and re-

use and circular business/ economic models.

• Adoption of a focus on services, rather than products with the
• pportunity to realise profit from real value to society.

The “system of community life” is very complex as shown in this real model.

Complex models must be developed which are simple to use.

Land Use Schedule Social Water Waste water Passenger Transport Agricultural production (External Area) Biomass / Biofuel production (External Area) Consumption (Food, goods, etc) Freight movement (Logistics) Waste management Energy

Tonnes of goods moved Tonnes of waste moved Energy recovery from tonnes / composition waste incineration(?) Employment: Recycling(??) Employment generated (external): Agricultural production Employment generated (external): Biomass production (a) Supply

• f housing

Passenger Transport distance (based on density) Freight transport distance (based

• n density)

Additional Land Area for Food production (a) Employment demand (b) Social infrastructure demand Reduction in potable demand through rainwater harvest

POPULATION

Per capita energy demand excl. transport / logistics Potable water demand Non-potable water demand (treated wastewater) Reduction in potable water demand through recycling Production of sewage effluent Energy demand by type Travel demand Demand for consumables (food, etc) Additional Land Area for Biomass production Energy for freight movement Fuel source – energy supply Fuel source – energy supply (rice husk) Reduction in energy demand through embedded renewables Generation of biogas Waste

• utput

Wind Turbines

Energy from Wind Land area required for turbines

Urban-Rural resource integration

Creating the Ecological Sequestration Trust in 2011

A not-for-profit charity was created to bring together world leading experts to support

• creation of tools for regional demonstrators of

transformational change towards resilient water- energy-food security

• dissemination and learning

The Trust name represents the need to develop city regions in ways that respect and work with natural cycles

• f resource use and storage (sequestration).Storage aids

resilience.

Building the team

Trustees'

John'Elkington' Sir'David'King' Prof'Nilay'Shah'

Execu=ve'Team'

Peter'Head' Exec'Chair' Mike'CherreB' CEO' Kerry'Mashford' Tech'Director' Graham'Hillier' Research'Director' Ziona'Strelitz' Director'–'' Social'Value' Alastair'Kennedy' Finance'Director'

Building the team

Advisory Board

Approach to Sustainable Regions

• Take a Regional Approach including urban areas and the hinterland
• Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated

regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act

• Unite economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape

interventions with a common/credible economic analyses

Demonstrate'Approach' through'Parallel'Ac=on' in'a'Network'of'' Strategically'Important' Countries'and'Demo' Regions' (1Q5m'people)'

Regional/ Global Demonstration

Getting People To Work Together

Regional Collaboratory OpenQsource' Model'‘living' master'plan’'''

Cross'sector' capacity'building' programmes'–' integrated'systems' thinking'&'design'

Tangible'linking'of' social/wellbeing'' benefit'to'physical' interven=ons' Integrated'' technology'and' infrastructure' project'plans' Mobilised'finance' and'inward' investment' Live'regional'data' cloud'and' performance'KPIs' &'metrics'

Public,'Private'&' Community' Sector'Partner' Access/' collabora=on'

Integrated'regional' development'plan'

Evolving Trust

Demonstrator Network Under Negotiation CHINA

MOHURD

Eco Demo Regions

MOST

Network of Institutes for Sustainability in China

UK

Demo City

Competition shortlist London Bristol Peterborough Winner Glasgow

TSB-UK Gov

Future Cities Catapult

Cities Alliance

Country programme Centres

African Centre for Cities

African Urban Research Initiative Global Centre for Culture and Sustainability

EU

Possible network with ICLEI

Open-source agent based urban- rural human, ecology, resource and economics model

Advanced modelling, data capture, data analysis and visualisation Real time analysis for city systems Management, integration and analysis

• f very large data-sets

Understanding consumer choice and behaviour

Integrated urban systems design/planning for sustainability and resilience Integrated design using a systems model, that measures agent based human and ecological activity, resource flows and economics, allows procurement of investment that grows social and environmental benefits through innovation

Now Where we could be with systems thinking and an urban-rural approach

• Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional economic

assessment dominates how we design (cities, policies, technology interventions etc)

• Short term political and finance cycles dominate economic

plane

• Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban

and rural viewed separately)

• Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract relationship

to earlier planes .

• INTEGRATED DESIGN
• INTEGRATED PLANNING
• ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN DESIGN PLANNING DEVELOPMENT

Model Overview

The open-source model platform being built by a world leading team from the Institute for Integrated Economics Research Zurich and Imperial College London. It is hoped to test it in demonstration regions in 2014.

Utilities Farming Property and land Education Health Communities Urban Design Forestry Industry Jobs and skills Policy

User Cockpits

The model will have user interface Apps which will enable different teams in a region to work collaboratively using familiar but useful tools.

Global Data inputs to the Model

Climate model Aquifers and geology

Underground

• Geology
• Aquifers and water flows
• Underground structures
• Heat map through the year

Land Use and Plant Ecology

• Topography
• Buildings and structures including facades

and roofs

• Land use types and population density
• Roads and railways
• Hard-standings and porosity
• Green spaces
• Trees
• Plants and green ecology by category
• Agriculture
• Hedges
• Forests and their composition
• Soil and quality
• Rivers and water bodies, including wetlands
• Sea including marine ecology
• Wild areas of ecology
• Rock outcrops

Direct link to Climate Model

ESA'‘Sen=nel”!Earth! Observa,on!data! Gmes'programme'

hBp://www.eea.europa.eu/dataQandQmaps/data/urbanQatlas'

Covers 305 major European agglomerations,''

' '

Urban Atlas

Local Data inputs to the Model

Climate model Aquifers and geology

Service networks required for resource flows

• Gas
• Electricity
• Oil
• Water and sewage waste
• Water run-off
• Heating and cooling
• Data
• Transport vehicles and networks

Sources Local infrastructure providers Real-time Sensors Operating companies

Local Data Inputs to the Model

Climate model Aquifers and geology

Agent (Social) activities

• Consumption and use
• Mobility movements
• Manufacturing and process

activities

• Emissions to air
• Data
• Property and land values
• Employment
• Diversity
• Health
• Education
• Food production
• Forest management and biomass
• Agriculture

Ecology and biodiversity

Climate KIC

!!!!!Visualisa,on!using!City!GML:crowd!sourcing!of!data!

!!!!!!!!!!!!' '''''The'community'cockpit'will'include'the'type'of'visualisa=on'and'crowd'sourcing'of'data'' ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''currently'being'trialled'in'Berlin'(TU'Berlin)'and'East'London'

Community Leadership and Cultural Planning

The Trust will partner with the Danish Cultural Institute and use Cultural Planning techniques to support communities and their leaders to enable them to make local decisions about their future

''''''''''''''''''''''

''''''''''''''''''''''www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaders'

At!COP17!

‘People- smart’

26

Collaboratories ‘on the ground’

Stanford, Clark Center Stanford d. school Warwick Research Exchange Cambridge, Sainsbury Laboratory

Governance policy setting and new financing models for city regions

The plan is to use the operation of the integrated resource and economics model in the region as an evidence, assurance and governance base for designing “good” PPP projects which deliver social, economic and environmental benefits sought by the public sector and revenues and asset value increases sought by the private sector. A regional investment fund will be created to provide capital for “good” projects.The fund will reduce risk by integrating “green growth”, “climate adaptation” and “social impact” models.

Output

Successful improvement in energy-water-food security and quality of lifess “Project

portfolio”

Evidence-based ‘trusted’ independent model Regional Funding for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’ Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds

Return Investment Assurance

peter.head@ecosequestrust.org

@PeterHeadCBE

Thank you for your interest.