Supporting a Resilient Future for Communities in Europe & Global City Regions Thank you for visiting our website, particularly if you are a fellow delegate at the 24 th EFC Annual Assembly in Copenhagen. The Trust was set up in 2011 to help accelerate and scale up the the transformative change we need in city regions to cope with climate change, resource shortages and associated financial and social instability. We are looking for Foundations and other partners to help city regions worldwide to become more sustainable by creating world- leading open-source shared approaches which selected demonstration regions show really work. You can find out more about the opportunities in the following few slides. Peter Head is at the Assembly and can be contacted on peter.head@ecosequestrust.org Prof Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA Executive Chairman
Presentation content • Global Challenges-The Ecological Age • Creating The Ecological Sequestration Trust • Open-source agent based urban-rural human, ecology resource and economics model and the Regional Collaboratory • Governance policy setting and new financing models for cities • Retrofitting “project portfolio”
Our Shrinking Earth World population grows 80million every year and as a result the area of land available on the planet to support life is reducing every year. Over the last 100 years the average amount of land available for food, energy, water and materials has fallen from 8HA per person to 2 HA per person. We live as if this has not happened . At the same time the biocapacity of the planet to support life is being reduced. 1900 1950 1987 2005 2030 2050 7.91 7.91 5.15 5.15 2.60 2.60 2.02 2.02 1.69 1.69 1.44 1.44 YEAR Hectares of Land Per Capita consumed USA 9.5 EU 3 to 7 China 2.8 India 1.5 China’s ecological footprint is growing at 4% per year which means finding an area twice the size of France every year to support urbanisation.
Global target for 9 billion people in 2050 Peter Head makes the case in his Brunel Lecture Paper that we need to move to an “ Ecological Age” model in which city regions reduce non-renewable resource use and greehouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 to 5 by 2050. The Trust aims to show how this can be done in one or two demonstration regions and then how it can be scaled up. http://www.arup.com/~/media/Files/PDF/Publications/Research_and_whitepapers/Ecological_Age/EngineersRole.ashx + + 1.44GHA/Capita HDI Increase (CO – 50%) 2 Ecological Footprint Human Development Index = 2050 Ecological Age Factor 4 to 5 reduction in EU Next 10 to 15 years (by 2030 ) are critical to get on track
The evolution of our economy from an increasingly resource-constrained ‘take-make- dispose’ model towards one that is circular and re- TOWARDS THE generative by intention poses a huge opportunity CIRCULAR ECONOMY for business innovation. This report from the January 2012 Ellen Macarthur Foundation highlights the significant economic opportunities, both THE ELLEN MACARTHUR immediate and long-term, that are available across the EU. The report offers the catalyst for a sector FOUNDATION wide re-design revolution which matches the objectives of the Ecological Age .
What will this approach mean for successful global businesses? • The adoption of systems-based innovation and business strategies • Smarter working across traditional boundaries: more cross- sector, cross-chain, cross-market, public-private integration and collaboration • Water-food-energy will be as strong a driver as CO2 • Volatile resource prices will be cooled through recycle and re- use and circular business/ economic models. • Adoption of a focus on services, rather than products with the opportunity to realise profit from real value to society.
The “system of community life” is very complex as shown in this real model. Complex models must be developed which are simple to use . (a) Supply Employment: of housing Recycling(??) Land Use Social Schedule (a) Employment (b) Social infrastructure demand demand Reduction in Land area Wind potable demand required for through rainwater turbines Turbines harvest Demand for consumables Freight (food, etc) Potable water transport demand Water distance (based Consumption on density) Reduction (Food, in potable goods, etc) water POPULATION Reduction in demand energy demand Energy through Non-potable Passenger through embedded from Wind recycling water demand Transport Per capita renewables (treated distance Travel energy wastewater) (based on demand Tonnes of demand excl. density) goods moved transport / logistics Energy Energy demand Energy for freight Passenger by type movement Waste water Transport Freight movement Production of (Logistics) sewage effluent Energy recovery Generation of from tonnes / biogas composition Tonnes of Employment generated Agricultural waste waste Additional (external): Agricultural incineration(?) moved production Land Area for production Food Fuel source – energy (External production supply (rice husk) Area) Employment generated Biomass / Biofuel (external): Biomass Waste Waste production output production Additional management Land Area for (External Area) Fuel source – Biomass energy production supply Urban-Rural resource integration
Creating the Ecological Sequestration Trust in 2011 A not-for-profit charity was created to bring together world leading experts to support • creation of tools for regional demonstrators of transformational change towards resilient water- energy-food security • dissemination and learning The Trust name represents the need to develop city regions in ways that respect and work with natural cycles of resource use and storage (sequestration).Storage aids resilience.
Building the team Trustees' John'Elkington' Sir'David'King' Prof'Nilay'Shah' Execu=ve'Team' Ziona'Strelitz' Peter'Head' Mike'CherreB' Kerry'Mashford' Graham'Hillier' Alastair'Kennedy' Director'–'' Exec'Chair' CEO' Tech'Director' Research'Director' Finance'Director' Social'Value'
Building the team Advisory Board
Approach to Sustainable Regions • Take a Regional Approach including urban areas and the hinterland • Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act • Unite economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a common/credible economic analyses
Regional/ Global Demonstration Getting People To Work Together Cross'sector' capacity'building' Regional Collaboratory programmes'–' integrated'systems' thinking'&'design' OpenQsource' Model'‘living' Integrated'regional' master'plan’''' development'plan' Demonstrate'Approach' Tangible'linking'of' through'Parallel'Ac=on' social/wellbeing'' Public,'Private'&' in'a'Network'of'' benefit'to'physical' Community' interven=ons' Strategically'Important' Sector'Partner' Countries'and'Demo' Access/' Integrated'' Regions' collabora=on' technology'and' (1Q5m'people)' infrastructure' project'plans' Live'regional'data' Mobilised'finance' cloud'and' and'inward' performance'KPIs' investment' &'metrics'
Evolving Trust EU Possible network Demonstrator Network with ICLEI UK Under Negotiation Demo City Competition Global Centre for Culture shortlist and London Bristol Sustainability CHINA Peterborough Winner MOHURD Glasgow Eco Demo Regions TSB-UK Gov MOST Future Cities Network of Catapult Institutes for Sustainability in China Cities Alliance Country programme Centres African Centre for Cities African Urban Research Initiative
Open-source agent based urban- rural human, ecology, resource and economics model Advanced modelling, data capture, data analysis and visualisation Real time analysis for city systems Management, integration and analysis of very large data-sets Understanding consumer choice and behaviour
Integrated urban systems design/planning for sustainability and resilience Integrated design using a systems model, that measures agent based human and ecological activity, resource flows and economics, allows procurement of investment that grows social and environmental benefits through innovation Where we could be with systems thinking Now and an urban-rural approach DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN DESIGN PLANNING DEVELOPMENT • Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional economic assessment dominates how we design (cities, policies, • INTEGRATED DESIGN technology interventions etc) • INTEGRATED PLANNING • Short term political and finance cycles dominate economic • ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT plane • Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban and rural viewed separately) • Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract relationship to earlier planes .
Model Overview The open-source model platform being built by a world leading team from the Institute for Integrated Economics Research Zurich and Imperial College London. It is hoped to test it in demonstration regions in 2014.
User Cockpits The model will have user interface Apps which will enable different teams in a region to work collaboratively using familiar but useful tools. Urban Design Industry Communities Policy Health Jobs and skills Education Utilities Farming Forestry Property and land
Recommend
More recommend
