Exploratory Model Building Tow ard Agent-Based Econom ics Takashi - - PDF document

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Exploratory Model Building Tow ard Agent-Based Econom ics Takashi - - PDF document

Oct 10, 2022 216 likes •412 views

Exploratory Model Building Tow ard Agent-Based Econom ics Takashi Iba Masaharu Hirokane Hirokane Kawakami Yoshiyasu Takefuji Heizo Takenaka designers@boxed-economy.org http: / / www.boxed-economy.org/ Post-Office Box 17, Fujisawa Keio-mae

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SLIDE 1

Exploratory Model Building

Tow ard Agent-Based Econom ics Takashi Iba Masaharu Hirokane Hirokane Kawakami Yoshiyasu Takefuji Heizo Takenaka designers@boxed-economy.org http: / / www.boxed-economy.org/

Post-Office Box 17, Fujisawa Keio-mae Post Office: 4250-1 Endo, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, Japan, zip 252-0816

Keio University, Japan

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SLIDE 2

Sim ulation is …

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SLIDE 3

How Building Reality?

Possible World

FACT simulation Model and Initial condition result

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SLIDE 4

I ncrem ental Developm ent

  • f the sim ulation m odel

Prediction

  • r Explanation

Application Feedback Application Feedback

Prediction

  • r Explanation

I n c r e m e n t a l D e v e l

  • p

m e n t

  • f

t h e s i m u l a t i

  • n

m

  • d

e l

From the macroscopic viewpoint,

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SLIDE 5

Exploratory Model Building

  • Model Building
  • Model Specification

– Specification of initial settings

  • Parameter Estimation
  • Model Validation

From the microscopic viewpoint,

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SLIDE 6
  • Model Building
  • cognitive science
  • social psychology
  • consumer behavior
  • marketing science
  • management science
  • artificial intelligence
  • reinforcement

learning

  • neural network

algorithm m odel com ponent m eta-algorithm Model com ponent adaptive com ponent agent m odel com ponent

Phase 1 Phase 1

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SLIDE 7

There are som e alternative m odels.

Phase 1 Phase 1

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SLIDE 8
  • Model Building
  • communication studies
  • social network analysis
  • Sociology
  • distributed artificial intelligence

agent m odel com ponent relation m odel com ponent com posed social m odel

Phase 1 Phase 1

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SLIDE 9
  • Model Specification

Phase 2 Phase 2

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SLIDE 10

I nductive Param eter Estim ation

  • Param eter Estim ation

Phase 3 Phase 3

Deductive Param eter Estim ation

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SLIDE 11

Deductive Estim ation

( for Param eter or Model)

Phase 3 Phase 3

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SLIDE 12
  • Model Validation
  • Comparison with observed data
  • Comparison with other economic

theories

  • Comparison with empirical

tendencies

Phase 4 Phase 4

  • bserved

data

  • ther economic

theories empirical tendencies

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SLIDE 13
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SLIDE 14

Param eter Estim ation and Model Validation

Phase 4 Phase 4 Phase 3 Phase 3

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SLIDE 15

Total Flow of Exploratory Model Building

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SLIDE 16

Autom atic Model Estim ation System

parameter range and increments social model designs data set for validation component model designs model component data set Permission condition

simulation user inputs automatic model estimation system

  • utputs

a=20 b=5.34 x=0.02 a=98 C=12000 Z>12345

some combinations of model settings

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SLIDE 17

For success w ith social sim ulation

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SLIDE 18

“Neo-I nstrum entalism ”

  • Instrumentalism

+

  • Extensibility of model
  • Reality of the assumptions
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SLIDE 19

Open the Black Box !

Boxed Econom y Model

= miniature of the entire economy