SLIDE 1
SLIDE 2 Note: P/FFO is calculated as consensus forward 12 month FFOPS / current share price Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings, BTIG Research
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 2 03/22/2019
Priced as of 03/22/19 Market Price Share Cap Div. % Off % Off BTIG BTIG BTIG Cons Cons Cons Name Ticker Rating Target Price $M Yield High Low High Low FY18 YTD LTM NTM FY19 FY20 NTM FY19 FY20 NAV P/FFO American Homes 4 Rent AMH Buy $24.00 $22.59 $7,939.7 0.9% 2,029 $23.34 $18.91
19.5%
16.6% $1.10 $1.10 $1.16 $1.11 $1.11 $1.20 $27.00 20.4x Invitation Homes Inc. INVH Buy $26.00 $24.02 $12,742.6 2.2% 2,888 $24.09 $19.21
25.0% -14.8% 19.6% 8.8% $1.25 $1.25 $1.30 $1.24 $1.24 $1.30 $28.00 19.4x 90D Avg Volume (000s) 52-Week Range Price Change Valuation FFO Estimates
SLIDE 3 ▪
We cover 2 companies in the single family rental industry with a positive outlook
▪
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH): Buy $24 PT (7% total return); Portfolio size: 52K units
▪
Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH): Buy $26 PT (10% total return); Portfolio size: 82K units
▪
Current valuation, 20X forward core FFOPS, reflects the market’s view that the growth story is over…
▪
But we believe the companies are well positioned to generate on average 4% core FFOPS growth in 2019 (6% pro forma), with upside potential, driven by:
▪
(1) Increasing demand from aging Millennials, who have a higher propensity to rent than prior generations did when aged below 35
▪
(2) Limited competition from for-sale supply, as inventories are thin and new supply additions, on average, are too large to compete with SFRs
▪
(3) accretive external portfolio growth opportunities from 3 channels: single asset acquisitions, new construction, and portfolio consolidation
▪
We expect SSREV to decelerate in 2019 as for-sale inventory increases and SFRs tactically prioritize
- ccupancy over rent growth acceleration
▪
Nevertheless, we still expect SSNOI to expand in 2019 as cost pressures abate
▪
We believe core FFOPS multiples will expand in 2019 as investors gain confidence in the secular growth drivers and companies convincingly demonstrate expenses are under control
3 BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 4 4
Sources: Census, BTIG Research
Distribution of the US Housing Stock Cumulative Change in the US Housing Stock (000s)
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation
744 1,344 1,295 905 1,082 621 567 325 455 908 1,513 3,056 64 212 874 1,506 1,873 2,511 3,123 3,587 3,888 3,849 3,890 3,582 (59) (195) (122) 450 759 1,390 1,759 1,940 2,412 2,982 2,999 2,873 (1,000) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Single Family Owner Multifamily Owner Single Family Renter Multifamily Renter
63.9% 82.6% 28.1% 36.1% 5.8% 6.4% 5.4% 61.1% 6.2% 4.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Total Stock: 120.0 million units Owned Stock: 76.6 million units Rental Stock: 43.4 million units 1, Detached 1, Attached 2+ Units Mobile Rental Stock Owned Stock
▪
68M units of occupied owned single family units, an increase of 3.1M households since 2005
▪
15M units of occupied single family rentals, an increase of 3.6M households since 2005
▪
12% of total occupied housing stock in 2017, up from 10% in 2005
03/22/2019
SLIDE 5 ▪
SF SFRs s ar are op
ing in in a a favorable le econ
envir ironment, on
hat is is lik likely ly to
inue ue over r the he ne next few years
▪
Millennials will add at least 4.5M people to the 35-44 age cohort over the next decade
▪
Households switch from multifamily shelter to single family in their early and mid 30s
▪
Millen Millennia ials ls ha have a a highe higher r pr prope pensi sity to
han pr previou ious s gene neratio ions s did did whe hen n ag aged be belo low 35 35
▪
Income: 25-34 year old unemployment at overall rate, used to be 50-100 bp below
▪
Balance Sheet: 30-39 year old student debt up 258% from 2004
▪
Lifestyle: Age of first marriage up 17%, first birth up 16% from 1980
5
34.9% 48.1% 59.9% 70.9% 75.1% 77.0% 76.2% 72.7% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Under 25 years old 25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 64 years
65 to 74 years
75 years old and over
Net Additions to the 35-44 Age Cohort Percent of Total Households Living in Single Family Units
Sources: Census, BTIG Research
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation
(331) (106) (48)(26) 49 28 324 452 448 463 550 416 449 475 390 480 344 216 204 (33)
100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
We are here! 03/22/2019
SLIDE 6 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Single Family Starts Single Family Starts - Long Term Average
▪
Competition from for-sale supply is limited due to years
▪
LTM Single family housing starts are 14% below the long term average
▪
New inventory 0.3% of total housing stock, resale inventory 1.3%, near all time lows
▪
However, inventory is beginning to move higher: new inventory is +14% yoy, resale inventory +5% yoy
▪
Homebuilders are building homes that are not competing with SFRs on average
▪
Single family starts on average are 30% larger than the homes in SFR portfolios
▪
Production of homes <2,400 SF down 51% from 1999, 3,000+ SF production up 27%
▪
Recently, product mix has begun to slowly shift to smaller houses due to deteriorating move-up demand
6
Sources: Census, Company Filings, BTIG Research
Single Family Housing Starts SFR Average Square Footage vs New Single Family Completions
1,850 1,980 2,201 2,677 1,000 1,170 1,340 1,510 1,680 1,850 2,020 2,190 2,360 2,530 2,700 INVH AMH Average Completed Home - FHA Average Completed Home - Total
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 7 We see three opportunities to grow the portfolio externally at yields that are accretive to NAV:
▪
(1) Single-asset acquisitions: We see sufficient
- pportunities from foreclosure auctions and the
MLS
▪
23.5K foreclosures in Oct 2018, almost 3X 2017 SFR acq volume and 10X 2018 volume
▪
All-cash “instant offer” competitive advantage for MLS listings
▪
(2) Continued portfolio consolidation: 3.6M single family rental units owned by limited partnerships, general partnerships, corporations,
▪
(3) New construction: 5% of single family starts are already built for rent, the opportunity set being discussed by SFRs is a drop in the bucket compared to total homebuilding production
▪
Initial yields on acquisitions are averaging 5-6%+, above implied cap rates and accretive to NAV
7
Sources: Census, BTIG Research
Single Family Rental Properties by Ownership Entity (000s), 2015
8,154 597 252 226 53 104 468 15,340 2,668 487 434 163 104 87 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 16,000.0 18,000.0 Individual / Trustee Limited Partnership / Joint Venture Coop / TIC / Non-profit Other REIT General Partnership Corporation 2001 2015
Single Family Housing Starts Built for Rent
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1Q75 4Q76 3Q78 2Q80 1Q82 4Q83 3Q85 2Q87 1Q89 4Q90 3Q92 2Q94 1Q96 4Q97 3Q99 2Q01 1Q03 4Q04 3Q06 2Q08 1Q10 4Q11 3Q13 2Q15 1Q17 4Q18 Built for Rent SF Starts, LTM (000s, LHS) Built for Rent, % of SF Starts (RHS) 03/22/2019
SLIDE 8 ▪
AMH and INVH have amassed considerable scale across two waves of consolidation, an important competitive advantage
▪
Scale enabled the companies to develop efficient
▪
AMH: Efficiency through the centralization of key leasing and maintenance functions
▪
INVH: Deep local scale enables a robust field level
▪
NOI margins are comparing well to multifamily and are improving
▪
SFR NOI margins improved 280 bps on avg in 2016 and 120 bps in 2017
▪
Cost to replicate these portfolios prohibitive due to low inventory and home price appreciation (HPA), helps insulate companies from new competition
8
Sources: Census, Company Filings, BTIG Research
Single Family Rental Portfolios (Single Family REITS + Tricon + Progress Residential) SFR NOI Margins Relative to Apartment REITs
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 RESI SBY (Tricon) Tricon CAH (Starwood) Starwood INVH ARPI (AMH) AMH 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 MAA CPT AMH SFR EQR AVB UDR ESS
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 9 ▪
We compared replacement/recurring capital expenditures per unit in SFR and apartment REIT portfolios and found that capex is 73% correlated to the age of the portfolio in 2016
▪
Results suggest age, not property type, determine capex levels
▪
Data from the Census supports this conclusion: homes built after 1999 incurred 43% less home improvement spend on average than homes built between 1980-1999
9
Sources: Census, Company Filings, BTIG Research
Per Unit Maintenance Capex 73% Correlated to Age in 2016 Per Unit Home Improvement Spending by Year Unit Was Constructed
AMH CPT MAA AVB UDR EQR Starwood INVH $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Replacement CapEx per Unit Weighted Average Portfolio Age 73.0% Correlation $1,143 $1,041 $2,123 $2,399 $1,970 $3,052 $2,936 $2,536 $3,084 $0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 $1,750 $2,000 $2,250 $2,500 $2,750 $3,000 $3,250 2011 Survey 2013 Survey 2015 Survey 2000+ 1980-1999 Pre 1980
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 10 19.6% 14.4% 14.1% 13.8% 11.7%
2.0% 7.0% 12.0% 17.0% 22.0% INVH Apt REIT Wtd Avg RMZ AMH S&P 500
▪
SFRs have
moderately ytd after underperforming the RMZ by 300 bp in 2018 on avg
▪
Less correlated to interest rate fluctuations than the RMZ overall
10
Sources: FactSet, Company Filings, BTIG Research
YTD Stock Performance of SFRs, Apartment REITs, RMZ, & S&P 500 Percent of Days the Trailing 90D Correlation with 10yr Treasury Yield was Stronger than -50% - 2/21/14-3/22/19
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation
53.3% 27.1% 26.2% 21.9% 2.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% RMZ AMH SFR INVH SPX
03/22/2019
SLIDE 11 ▪
We value SFRs on core FFOPS, adjusted for deferred financing costs
▪
Stocks are trading at 20X forward core FFOPS, vs 21X multifamily
▪
Expect an avg of 6% core FFOPS growth in 2019 (pro forma) to drive multiple expansion
▪
Valuation supported by NAV and implied dividend yield analysis
11
Sources: Bloomberg, Company Filings, BTIG Research
SFR core FFO Multiple & Apartment REIT FFO Multiples Core FFO Multiple Valuation Methodology
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation
12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 10/1/14 11/21/14 1/16/15 3/12/15 5/5/15 6/26/15 8/19/15 10/12/15 12/3/15 1/28/16 3/22/16 5/13/16 7/7/16 8/29/16 10/20/16 12/13/16 2/7/17 3/31/17 5/24/17 7/20/17 9/12/17 11/2/17 12/27/17 2/21/18 4/16/18 6/7/18 7/31/18 9/21/18 11/13/18 1/9/19 3/5/19 SFR Wtd Avg APT REIT Wtd Avg
FFO Adjustments Core FFO Build Up Price Target AMH $1.10 100.0% $1.10 15.2x 1.42x 21.5x $23.58 $24.00 $22.59 6.2% 7.1% INVH $1.25 93.4% $1.17 15.2x 1.45x 22.0x $25.75 $26.00 $24.02 8.2% 10.4% Last Price Delta Ticker NTM Core FFO
Adj Adj Core FFO Rounded PT PT REIT Avg Company Premium Valuation Multiple Total Return Valuation Methodologies AMH $24.00 $27.00 $21.00 $24.00 INVH $26.00 $28.00 $19.00 $27.00 FFO Multiple NAV - Home Price NAV - Cap Rate Dividend Yield Ticker
03/22/2019
SLIDE 12
▪
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH): Buy, $24 PT
▪
Young portfolio of 52K units dispersed throughout 42 metros in 22 states, primarily in the Sunbelt.
▪
Efficient, centralized operating platform; active consolidator with a proven ability to quickly onboard acquired portfolios.
▪
AMH is well positioned to execute on its target of $600-800M in acquisition and development spend in 2019 ($300-500M added to the portfolio)
▪
Best capitalized SFR at 26% net debt to total market cap and 5X net debt to adj EBITDA
▪
We forecast 3% core FFOPS growth in 2019 (6% pro forma) and 6% in 2020 from both acquisitions and internal growth.
▪
Stock declined 9% in 2018 after slower than expected SSNOI and FFOPS growth on higher SSEXP; up 14% ytd
▪
Expect the stock to outperform as FFOPS and SSNOI re-accelerates in 2019
▪
$24 PT based on 21.5X multiple of estimated forward 12 month adj core FFOPS, supported by NAV and implied dividend yield analysis
▪
7% total return (6% share appreciation, 1% dividend)
▪
FY FY19 19E Core FFO: $1.10 SSREV/SSEXP/SSNOI: 3.6%/3.7%/3.6%
▪
FY FY20 20E Core FFO: $1.16 SSREV/SSEXP/SSNOI: 3.4%/3.1%/3.5%
12
Sources: Company Filings, Bloomberg, BTIG Research
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 13
▪
Invitation Homes Inc (INVH): Buy, $26 PT. Older portfolio of 82K units concentrated in supply-constrained, high-employment growth coastal markets (West Coast and FL concentration).
▪
The merger with Starwood, completed 11/16/17, is a transformational opportunity to deepen scale in existing markets, enter new markets with immediate scale, and create a hybrid operating model with the potential to be best-in-class.
▪
Current synergies estimate of $50-$55M likely to prove conservative
▪
We forecast 6% core FFOPS growth in 2019 and 4% in 2020
▪
Stock declined 15% in 2018 on higher than expected SSEXP growth, up 20% ytd
▪
While we expect some SSREV deceleration in 2019, abating cost pressure should drive SSNOI expansion
▪
$26 PT based on 22.0X multiple of estimated forward 12 month adj core FFOPS, supported by NAV analysis and implied dividend yield
▪
10% total return (8% share appreciation, 2% dividend yield)
▪
2019E: Core FFO: $1.25 core SSREV/SSEXP/SSNOI: 4.0%/3.4%/4.4%
▪
20 2020E: Core FFO: $1.30 core SSREV/SSEXP/SSNOI: 4.2%/2.9%/5.0%
13
Sources: Company Filings, Bloomberg, BTIG Research
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 14
▪
Ryan Gil ilbert – An Analyst – rgilbert@btig.com – (415 415) 248 248-2292 2292
▪
7 years of sell-side experience covering homebuilders and REITs
▪
Also worked as consultant for FEMA, Treasury and the NEA
▪
B.A. George Washington University
▪
Ca Carl Rei eichardt – An Analyst – cr creichardt@btig.com – (415 415) 248 248-2212 2212
▪
Covered homebuilders for 15 years at Wells Fargo/Wachovia & Montgomery/B of A
▪
Also worked for a homebuilder, as an industry consultant and a single-family office
▪
B.A. Georgetown, M.B.A. Stanford
14 BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 15
15 BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation
AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT (AMH, Buy, $24.00 PT; Current Price: $22.59; Analyst: Ryan.Gilbert) INVITATION HOMES INC. (INVH, Buy, $26.00 PT; Current Price: $24.02; Analyst: Ryan.Gilbert)
03/22/2019
SLIDE 16
16
Analyst Certification I, Ryan Gilbert, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report. I, Carl E. Reichardt, Jr., hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report. Regulatory Disclosures Ratings Definitions BTIG LLC’s (“BTIG”) ratings, effective June 12, 2017, are defined as follows: BUY – A security which is expected to produce a positive total return of 15% or greater over the 12 months following the recommendation. The BUY rating may be maintained as long as it is deemed appropriate, notwithstanding price fluctuations that would cause the target to fall outside of the 15% return. SELL – A security which is expected to produce a negative total return of 15% or greater over the next 12 months following the recommendation. The SELL rating may be maintained as long as it is deemed appropriate, notwithstanding price fluctuations that would cause the target to fall outside of the 15% return. NEUTRAL – A security which is not expected to appreciate or depreciate meaningfully over the next 12 months. NOT RATED – A security which is not rated or covered by BTIG. UNDER REVIEW – Effective immediately, coverage of the following securities is Under Review. Ratings, price targets, disclosures, and estimates for the companies listed below are suspended and should no longer be relied upon. Distribution of Ratings and Investment Banking Clients BTIG must disclose in each research report the percentage of all securities rated by the member to which the member would assign a “buy”, “neutral” or “sell” rating. The said ratings are updated on a quarterly basis. BTIG must also disclose the percentage of subject companies within each of these three categories for whom the member has provided investment banking services within the previous twelve months. Stocks under coverage as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter (March 31, 2019): 348 Distribution of BTIG’s Research Recommendations (as of March 31, 2019): BUY: 62.6%; NEUTRAL: 34.8%; SELL: 2.6% Distribution of BTIG’s Investment Banking Services (as of March 31, 2019): BUY: 25.7%; NEUTRAL: 9.9%; SELL: 0.0% For purposes of FINRA ratings distribution rules, BTIG’s stock ratings of Buy, Neutral and Sell fall into Buy, Hold and Sell categories, respectively.
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 17 17
Company Valuation and Risk Disclosures American Homes 4 Rent (AMH, Buy, $24.00 PT) Valuation: We value AMH on a core FFOPS multiple basis, adjusted for financing costs. In AMH’s case, the only financing cost added back to reported core FFO was the non-cash interest expense related to acquired debt which matured in 4Q18, so adjusted core FFO will be 100% of reported core FFO starting 1Q19. We calculate a core FFO valuation multiple using a similar methodology to BTIG’s REIT team, by multiplying the REIT industry average by an assumed premium. We value AMH at 21.5x NTM core FFO of $1.10, a 1.42x premium to the 2018 REIT FFO multiple average of 15.2x. Since AMH’s 2013 IPO, the multiple premium to the REIT industry has averaged 1.3x and been as high as 1.9x and low as 1.0x. Currently, AMH trades at 20X, a 1.3x premium to the REIT industry average. We believe expanding SSNOI in 2019 warrants a premium valuation. Our 21.5X multiple equates to a $24 price target. Risks: Risks include: An increase in the homeownership rate, a housing production mix shift back to entry level, an increase in SFR competition, deterioration in capital markets, and a macroeconomic downturn. Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH, Buy, $26.00 PT) Valuation: We value INVH on a core FFOPS multiple basis, adjusted for financing costs, which have been running around 5-10% of reported core FFO. We calculate a core FFO valuation multiple using a similar methodology to BTIG’s REIT team, by multiplying the REIT industry average by an assumed
- premium. We value INVH at 22x NTM adjusted core FFO of $1.17, a 1.45x premium to the 2018 REIT FFO multiple average of 15.2x. Our PT is $26,
10% total return from current levels. Risks: Risks include: merger integration or completion complications, an increase in the homeownership rate, a housing production mix shift back to entry level, renovation requirements from Harvey and Irma, an increase in SFR competition, deterioration in capital markets, and a macroeconomic downturn. Company–Specific Regulatory Disclosures BTIG LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months from: American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH)
BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 18 18
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BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
SLIDE 19
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BTIG Single Family Rental Marketing Presentation 03/22/2019
