Rental Market Overview November 2019 Historical Vacancy Rate Trend - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Rental Market Overview

November 2019

Historical Vacancy Rate Trend

2.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

National Average Rental Vacancy Rate

1990 to 2018

Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Rental Vacancy Rate in 4 Largest Markets

2008 to 2018 Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC

National Immigration Targets

261,000 281,000 300,000 300,000 310,000 330,800 341,000 350,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 260,000 280,000 300,000 320,000 340,000 360,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Federal Immigration Targets

Canada: 2014 to 2021 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Economic Immigrant Target Shares

Canada: 2014 to 2021

Toronto CMA Population Flows

• 49,758

90,593 9,374 42,679

• 60,000
• 40,000
• 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Components of Population Growth

Toronto CMA: 2007 to 2018 Net Intra-provincial Migration Net Immigration Net Inter-provincial migration Net Non-permanent Residents

Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

34% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Share of Total Canada Immigration

Toronto CMA: 2007 to 2018

Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

Young Adult Population Growth & Homeownership

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual Population Growth Aged 20-34

Toronto CMA: 2007 to 2018 Population Increase (persons) Population Growth (%)

Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

38.9% 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 46.0% 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Homeownership Rates

Toronto CMA: 1991 to 2016 Under Age 35

Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

Per Capita Housing Sales & Price/Income Growth

2.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual MLS Sales as a % of the Population aged 25+

Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018

Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board

• Avg. = 2.0%

$788,000 $70,000 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average MLS Houisng Price and Renter Household Income

Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018 (2006 =100)

• Avg. MLS Price
• Avg. Renter Household Income

Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board

$352,000 $52,000

Ownership Affordability Calculations

$3,789 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000

Mortgage Payment for Average MLS Price

Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018

*Assumes 20% down pay ment, 25-y ear amortization, 5-y ear f ixed mortgage rates Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board

37.5% 64.3% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0%

Mortgage Payment for Average MLS Price as % of Renter Household Income

Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018

*Assumes 20% down pay ment, 25-y ear amortization, 5-y ear f ixed mortgage rates Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board, CMHC

Net Rental Supply Growth & Renter HH Formation

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual Net Change in Rental Apartment Stock

Toronto CMA: 2008 to 2018 Purpose-built Rental Stock Increase Condominium Rental Stock Increase

Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC

14,556 13,158 13,838 9,538 7,215 8,786

• 3,502
• 3,432

9,389 16,894

• 10,000
• 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 91-96 96-01 01-06 06-11 11-16

Average Annual Net Renter Household Formation

Toronto CMA: 1991 to 2016

Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

Average Condominium Rents & Annual Growth

$3.44 ($2,481) $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 $2.80 $3.00 $3.20 $3.40 $3.60 Q3-11 Q3-12 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q3-16 Q3-17 Q3-18 Q3-19

Average Condominium Rents PSF

GTA: 2011 to 2019, Q3 periods

Source: Urbanation Inc.

10.0% 9.1% 5.8% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Q3-11 Q3-12 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q3-16 Q3-17 Q3-18 Q3-19

Annual Growth in Average Condominium Rents PSF

GTA: 2011 to 2019, Q3 periods

Source: Urbanation Inc.

New Purpose-built Absorptions & Rents PSF

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50

Absorption and Index Rents for 2019 Purpose-built Completions

GTA-Hamilton: Q3-2019 West22 The Taunton Village Creek Living (Hamilton) Parkside Square eCentral at ePlace The Selby The Montgomery Kings Club Niagara West

Source: Urbanation Inc.

Absorbed Units Current Rent PSF

Condo & Rental Construction

71,957 11,413 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Apartment Units Under Construction

Greater Toronto Area: Q1-14 to Q3-19 Condominium Apartments Purpose-built Rentals

Source: Urbanation Inc

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Rental Share of Total Apartment Starts

Toronto CMA: 1998 to 2018

Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC

Purpose-built Rental Proposals

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Inflow of New Purpose-built Rental Proposals (Units)

GTA: Q1-2016 to Q3-2019, 4-Quarter Rolling Total for New Applications

Source: Urbanation Inc.

Rent Control Extension to New Buildings Rent Control Removal for New Buildings

52,839 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Q3-2015 Q3-2016 Q3-2017 Q3-2018 Q3-2019

Inventory of Proposed Purpose-built Rentals (Units)

GTA: 2015 to 2019, Q3 periods

Source: Urbanation Inc.