Evaluation of the economic and ecological effects of the French - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Evaluation of the economic and ecological effects of the French ‘bonus malus’ for new cars

• Dr. Gaël Callonnec

Nicolas Blanc Agency for Environment and Energy Management France

eceee Summer study

Bonus malus on car sales per emission class

The limit of each taxation class will be reduced by 5 gCO2 every two years,

until 2012

The bonus malus effects on the market shares

• f the energetical classes

The model of « willingness to pay »

The “interclass switch” model

When demand for one class, shown in the columns, rises under the effect

• f a bonus, sales of the inferior classes shown in the rows (below the

diagonal of the table) decline by an amount equal to this growth multiplied by the corresponding coefficient. When demand for one class decreases under the effect of a malus, sales of the superior classes (above the diagonal of the table) grow by an amount equal to the fall multiplied by the corresponding coefficient.

Comparative results of various models

The effects of the oil price growth on the cars registrations

The consumer price of oil rose by 27% during the first half of 2008. This inflation would be responsible for more than half the sales growth

• f class B vehicles.

The environmental effect of the french bonus malus

gCO2 per km

The economical effects of the bonus malus

A positive effect on the french automobile market in 2008

• sales of classes A and B vehicles increased by 18%
• Sales by French manufacturers increased by 2.1%
• the sales reduction of new vehicles has been limited to -0.7%.

In a difficult international context

• new registrations fell by -8,3 % in 2008 in western Europe
• collapse by -28.1% in Spain, -13.4% in Italy, -11.3% in Great

Britain and -1.8% in Germany

For a modest cost

• The system cost M€ 300 to the public budget in 2008
• The deficit should disapear with the proressiv modification of

the rates until 2012.

The bonus malus effect on the market shares of the energetical classes in 2012

General principles for an extension of the bonus-malus scheme

Clearly defined environmental issues that can be easily understood by the population Good substitutability between good and bad products (sailing boat/engine boat) Balanced budget between bonus and malus No negative effect on the purchase power of poorest people (cars vs. fridges) Reliable and systematic measurements or criteria for environmental impact are needed

(label)

Regular update of the scheme Need for an adapted marketing campaign

Good candidates

TV sets? Batteries and accumulators? Paints and detergents (using the European Ecolabel as a

criterion)?

Motorcycles, LDVs?