EURONAV INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2020 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EURONAV INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2020 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

EURONAV INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2020 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.


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SLIDE 1

EURONAV INVESTOR PRESENTATION

MAY 2020

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SLIDE 2

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans,

  • bjectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and other statements, which are
  • ther than statements of historical facts. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities,

events or developments that the Company expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, the delivery of vessels, the outlook for tanker shipping rates, general industry conditions future operating results of the Company’s vessels, capital expenditures, expansion and growth opportunities, bank borrowings, financing activities and other such matters, are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements include the failure of counterparties to fully perform their obligations to us, the strength of the world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in tanker vessel charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand for tankers, changes in our vessel

  • perating expenses, including dry-docking, crewing and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities,

ability of customers of our pools to perform their obligations under charter contracts on a timely basis, potential liability from future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and political events or acts by terrorists. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or

  • therwise, except as required by law. In light of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward looking events

discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

2

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SLIDE 3

The world’s largest, independent quoted crude tanker platform

International company – internationally connected

3 Euronav offices Partnerships

EURONAV – WHO WE ARE

2 FSO* 2 ULCC

Headquarters in Antwerp

EURONAV – WHO WE ARE

Mix of time charter and spot exposure for the rest of 2020

* Includes JV

46 VLCC incl. 4 N/B

Av Age 7.3 Yrs Av Age 11.1 Yrs

25 Suezmax*

45% 29% 24% 2%

0-5 yrs 6-10 yrs 11-14 yrs 15+ yrs

16% 15% 46% 23%

0-5 yrs 6-10 yrs 11-14 yrs 15+ yrs

19% 81% Fixed days Spot days

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SLIDE 4

EURONAV STRATEGY – SHAREHOLDER FOCUS

Source: Bloomberg Source: Euronav

Repayment schedule and RCF reductions

100 200 300 400 500 600

Millions

Reductions Repayments Balloon to be refinanced Bond Maturity * Includes proposed 29c 78c final dividend 2019 & Q1 2020

Leverage:

  • 39.5% book value
  • 42% post dividend

payments for 2h 2019 & Q1 2020

Shareholder returns since 2014

  • 50

347 187

  • 9
  • 138

119 226

270 123 45 23 77 172

7 3 32

  • 155
  • 55

45 145 245 345 445

$m net Income, Dividend & Buy back Net Income Dividend Share Buy Back

$1.035bn dividend paid since 2004 $17.76 p/s USD 3.77 DPS since 2015

4

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SLIDE 5

EURONAV STRATEGY – LIQUIDITY FOCUS

5

+$270m 4x VLCC DELIVERY Q4 20 Q1 21

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SLIDE 6

BASE $108 $324 $540 $1,188 +$5,000 per day +$15,000 per day +$25,000 per day +$55,000 per day

EURONAV

OPERATIONAL LEVERAGE WITH CONTRACTUAL INCOME SUPPORT

VLCC TCE rates

$25,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $80,000

Suezmax TCE rates

$20,000 $25,000 $35,000 $45,000 $75,000

Each $5,000 uplift in both VLCC and Suezmax rates improves net revenue and EBITDA by $108mm FSO contract until 2022 Long term TC contract to 2024 Commercial TC relationships

+

6

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SLIDE 7

HIGHLIGHTS Q1 2020

  • Strong underlying tanker dynamics drive record quarter
  • Robust freight market improved by record contango price structure &

storage

  • Very strong start to Q2
  • Q1 2020 and Final 2019 dividends to be paid in June

Dividends to total USD 1.10 per share

  • Outlook –

Q2 : VLCC 71% fixed at around 95k$ per day Q2 : Suezmax 57% fixed at around 65.4k$ per day

Suezmax VLCC

7 P&L B/E Q1 20 Q1 19

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

USD/day

*includes all spot related revenues (including profit sharing)

In USD per day First quarter 2020 First quarter 2019 VLCC Average spot rate * 72,750 35,195 Average time charter rate 37,000 27, 630 SUEZMAX Average spot rate* 59,250 27,380 Average time charter rate 30,250 32,680

P&L B/E Q1 20 Q1 19

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

USD/day

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SLIDE 8

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS – INCOME

KEY KPIs

  • Revenues : 417 M$
  • EBITDA : 316 M$
  • Net income : 225 M$

8 (in $ million) First quarter 2020 First quarter 2019 Revenue 416.7 232.6 Other operating income 3.3 2.0 Voyage expenses and commissions (32.7) (37.6) Vessel operating expenses (53.9) (54.4) Charter hire expenses (0.7)

  • General and administrative expenses

(16.4) (19.7) Net gain (loss) on disposal of tangible assets 8.3 (0.1) Depreciation (82.3) (83.9) Net finance expenses (21.2) (23.8) Share of profit (loss) of equity accounted investees 5.2 3.9 Result before taxation 226.2 19.1 Tax benefit (expense) (0.6) 0.5 Profit (loss) for the period 225.6 19.5 Attributable to: Owners of the company 225.6 19.5 Information per share: (in USD per share) First quarter 2020 First quarter 2019 Weighted average number of shares (basic) * 215.078.497 217.447.311 Result after taxation 1.05 0.09 Result after taxation exc. capital gains 1.01 0.09

P&L Breakeven

  • VLCC : 28.9 $/day
  • Suezmax : 26.4 $/day
  • TCE Increase of

$5.000 results in 27 M$ more EBITDA/ Net income per quarter result

  • 17.5 M$ savings

realized in Q1 2020

  • r 5 k$/day impact
  • n VLCC rate

1 2

Fuel procurement project

3

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SLIDE 9

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS – BALANCE SHEET

Leverage

39.5% leverage to book value 42% leverage to book value after dividend payment

Liquidity

$1.05 bn of available of which:

  • Cash: $312.2m
  • Revolving Credit facilities: $748m

HIGHLIGHTS

1 2

9

BALANCE SHEET

(in $ million)

Mar-20 Dec-19 Cash 312.2 297.0 Restricted cash 0.0 0.0 Other current assets 499.8 505.3 Long term assets: Newbuildings 100.5 0.0 Vessels 3,095.6 3,177.3 Other long-term assets 180.0 185.3 Total assets 4,188.1 4,164.8 Current liabilities 347.7 316.1 Long term debt 1,292.2 1,523.7 Other long-term liabilities 14.8 13.1 Equity 2,533.4 2,311.9 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 4,188.1 4,164.8

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SLIDE 10

CAPITAL ALLOCATION AT EURONAV

10

motivated by profit

  • pportunity from

contango price structure involuntary or forced storage due to Covid- 19 Restrictions, congestion, supply chain issues part of logistical chain in crude oil supply

Debt Repayment

Dividends Buy Backs

Equity & Bonds

Fleet

Growth/Renewal

Mandatory debt repayment Q1 2020 = $28m* Reduction of RCF in Q1 =$69m*

*Annual debt repayment is $ 62m while annual RCF reduction is $263m

FY 2019 0.29c Q1 2020 0.81c Total: $1.10c Payable June 20 2020 YTD Dividend yield 11%* $1.2bn returned since 2004

*based on $10 share price

Bonds $1m Euronav 7.5% bond repurchased at 85 now trading above par Equity repurchases

  • ptional

$100m paid toward 4x VLCC resale purchases Outstanding capex $270m

  • f which

>$220m from bank financing

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SLIDE 11

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Value of 17 & 19 year old Suezmaxes $m

17 year old Suezmax 19 year old Suezmax 15 year old VLCC

FLEET DEPLOYMENT

ACTIVE FLEET MANAGEMENT

90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

Value of VLCC resale $m

Sale of 2x Suezmaxes & 1x VLCC above market price Purchase of 4x VLCC resales below market price

Finesse $21.8m Cap Diamant $20.8m 4x VLCC @ $93m

Source: Clarksons, Euronav

TI Hellas MOA $38.3m

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SLIDE 12

FLEET DEPLOYMENT - 2020

81% 19% Fixed days Q1 2020 to end 2020

Management have “locked” in some longer time charters whilst retaining large spot exposure Split between Spot & Fixed

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2-Q4 20

% of Euronav fleet fixed in time charter 12

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SLIDE 13

IMO 2020 & FUEL STRATEGY

100 200 300 400 500 600

Compliant 0.5% bunker fuel per ton

Compliant 0.5% bunker fuel Euronav entry cost

Source: Bloomberg

Fuel benefit $17.5m

  • Marked-to-market of

inventory onboard OCEANIA is -$56m (end of quarter)

  • No write-down

necessary as we have not used the fuel. Situation will be assessed quarter after quarter

  • Fuel Oil project

benefits in Q1= $17.5m

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SLIDE 14

CURRENT MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Storage has further capacity for substantial impact

EIA estimate onshore storage capacity

Source: Bloomberg. IEA, EIA, Broker reports

70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

IEA oil demand & production m bbls Cumulative inventory build m bbls Cumulative inventory build IEA Oil Production IEA Oil Demand 14

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SLIDE 15

ONSHORE STORAGE

LIMITED TO 1BN BARRELS AND OECD LOCATION FOCUSED

15

Source: HIS Markit, EIA, Livemnint, Reuters, various

Likely already approaching full onshore capacity given recent moves to tankers

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SLIDE 16

NOT ALL FLOATING STORAGE IS CREATED EQUAL

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 50 100 150 200 250

No of Vessels

Dedicated Infrastructure Storage Iranian VLCC Market Storage Suezmax % of VLCC fleet

…and now up to 73 Suezmax now in market storage x2 record high

Storage has ONLY just begun with:

  • 129 VLCCs are currently being used as storage of which :
  • 69 VLCCs taken for market storage in April
  • 38 Iranian
  • 22 infrastructure VLCC in storage before crisis

Source: Bloomberg, Clarksons, Fearnley

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SLIDE 17

FUTURE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

17

motivated by profit

  • pportunity from

contango price structure involuntary or forced storage due to Covid-19 Restrictions, congestion, supply chain issues part of logistical chain in crude oil supply

Short term

Storage demand is compensating more than decrease of trading demand – rates to remain underpinned

6m Contango Implied TC rate $3 25,000 $4 37,000 $5 46,000 $6 57,000 $8 80,000 $10 100,000

Mid term

Storage phase Storage Draw Global Fleet Re-sizing

Freight rate pressure Fleet oversupplied because of Returning vessels from storage and weaker demand for transportation Global Fleet RE-SIZING could be substantial 2 Scenarios

  • 1. Quick draw

Contango persist and demand for storage ships persist

  • 2. Slow draw

Backwardation means gradual storage draw

Long term

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SLIDE 18

LARGE TANKER FLEET RIPE FOR RE-SIZING

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RISING BARRIERS ORDER BOOK CURRENTLY 23 YR LOW NEWBUILDING CONTRACTS

FINANCING BANKS & CAPITAL MARKETS REGULATION IMO 2030, BASEL IV TECHNOLOGY IN FUEL PROPULSION LONG TERM CRUDE DEMAND

Source: Clarksons, Bloomberg, Euronav

10 20 30 40 50 60

Orderbook as % of fleet

VLCC Orderbook % Fleet Suezmax Orderbook % Fleet

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SLIDE 19

RECYCLING REFLECTS PRESSURE ON OWNERS

STEEL PRICE AND REGULATORY PRESSURE

Source Euronav

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Older tonnage comes under increasing pressure Owners dilemma

Increased opex from IMO2020 Volatile steel scrap price Ballast water capex $1.5m from Sept 19 Lower cash earnings for

  • lder vessels

Older vessels = heavy consumers

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SLIDE 20

LARGE TANKER FLEET RIPE FOR RE-SIZING

11.5 9 10 6.5 4 11 6.5 9 16 10.5 14 6.5 11 9 11 9.5 6.5 8 8.5 8 3.5 5 3 0.5 3.5 3 4.5 2.5 0.5 4.5 3.5 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21

No of VLCC equivalents

SS 15 yr SS 17.5 yr SS 20 yr SS 22.5 yr SS 25 yr

EACH QUARTER TO END 2021 - 27 VLCC EQUIVALENTS MUST UNDERTAKE A SPECIAL SURVEY

FLEET AGE RISING – 26% VLCC FLEET >15 YEARS (@ 1 JANUARY 21)

Source: Clarksons

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SLIDE 21

WHAT IS PRICED IN?

HIGHER EARNINGS THAN LAST CYCLE BUT NOT IN RATING

21

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SLIDE 22

DEMAND FOR OIL - TRANSPORT HEAVY

22

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Road transport Aviation & Shipping Industry & Petrochemicals Buildings & Power Other sectors Oil demand m bpd by sector 2018

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux, WEO 2019

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SLIDE 23

CRUDE DEMAND

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008/9 FINANCIAL CRISIS

23

Recovery took time globally

Source: IEA

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SLIDE 24

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1994 2018 1992 2017 2011 2013 1993 2012 1999 1995 2002 1996 2009

VLCC rates % of VLCC fleet scrapped

Rates % fleet scrapped

SCRAPPING

VLCC RATES GO BELOW P&L BREAK EVEN = 5% FLEET DEPARTS

24

VLCC fleet 804 @ start of year = 40 VLCC or 53 VLCC equivalents

Source: Clarksons

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SLIDE 25

FINANCING OF SHIPPING

UNDER GROWING PRESSURE

25

275 325 375 425 475

$ billion bank lending to shipping

Bank lending to Shipping Average 5 10 15 20 25

$bn raised in shipping IPO, follow ons & Bond issuance

Capital market shipping Average

Bank lending to shipping down 33% Capital markets 50% below average 2019

Source: Petrofin Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

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SLIDE 26

WE LIVE IN EXTREME TIMES

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20 40 60 80 100 120

1 50 100 150 200

Brent Oil Price Index = 100

1985/6 1998/9 2008/9 2014/15 2020-

2020 oil price fall the fastest and most significant in past 35 years

Source: Bloomberg

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SLIDE 27

WITH AGGRESSIVE OIL PRICE SELL OFFS

COMES CONTANGO

27

Source: Bloomberg

4 of last 5 oil price falls had persistent contango price structure for next 12 months

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SLIDE 28

CONTANGO & VLCC STORAGE

NOT JUST ABOUT MATHEMATICAL FORMULA

28

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

6 month Contango spread $ per barrel No of VLCC in MARKET storage

Market storage VLCC Contango break even 6m contango

Storage impact on VLCC persisted after contango moved to backwardation

Source: Clarksons, Bloomberg