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Euronav – Company presentation July 2017
FSO US EXPORTS
Euronav Company presentation July 2017 1 Forward Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
FSO US EXPORTS Euronav Company presentation July 2017 1 Forward Looking Statements Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities
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FSO US EXPORTS
Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and
historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, the delivery of vessels, the outlook for tanker shipping rates, general industry conditions future operating results of the Company’s vessels, capital expenditures, expansion and growth opportunities, bank borrowings, financing activities and other such matters, are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking
factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements include the failure of counterparties to fully perform their obligations to us, the strength of the world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in tanker vessel charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand for tankers, changes in our vessel operating expenses, including dry-docking, crewing and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, ability of customers of our pools to perform their obligations under charter contracts on a timely basis, potential liability from future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and political events or acts by terrorists. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or
events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.
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I NTRODUCTI ON
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1. Adjusted EBITDA (a non-IFRS measure) represents operating earnings including the share of EBITDA of equity accounted investees before interest expense, income taxes and depreciation expense attributable to Euronav 2. Only 2 V-Plus vessels in world fleet 3. Six vessels have a BWTS installed.
crude oil
companies
sheet and high liquidity
side and globally 3,000 seafarers
market capitalization of USD ~ 1.2 billion
FLEET DEPLOYMENT SUMMARY
3 MM barrels 2.8 MM barrels 3 0 VLCC Up to 3 3 0 ,0 0 0 DW T 2MM barrels 1MM barrels 1 9 SUEZMAX ( + 4 NBs) 1 5 0 ,0 0 0 – 1 6 5 ,0 0 0 DW T 1 V – PLUS ( 2 ) Over 4 4 1 ,0 0 0 DW T 2 FSO Stripped w ater capacity 3 8 0 k barrels Only 4 in w orld fleet
CURRENT FLEET – TOTAL 5 6 VESSELS – 1 4 .0 MM DW T
Fixed 23% Spot 77% Fixed Spot
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Time Charter Spot No of Vessels VLCC Suezmax FSO
5 7 3 5 1 8 ( + 4 NB)
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SUEZMAX CHARTERI NG
1 2 1 2 1 2
VLCC POOL SUEZMAX JOI NT VENTURE
Other VLCC Tanker Pools ( Ships on the W ater)
Source: Company reports 15 June 2017
Heidm ar – VLCC Seaw olf
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Navig8 – VL8
36
China VLCC
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3 6 Size is critical to im prove m arket know ledge and achieve the best com m ercial term s
Main Tanker Clients
Value Adjusted Equity ratio* ( % ) DYNAMI CS I N THE SHI PPI NG I NDUSTRY
TANKER MARKET CONSOLI DATI ON
6 5 16 14 18 29 11 10 10 22 21 30 25 34 35 31 30 39 46 49 54 22 22 24 26 27 33 37 32 22 42 46 42 17 17 31 31 32 37 124 116 142 206 227
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 50 100 150 200 250 300 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DHT TNK GNRT EURN
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FRAGMENTED VLCC MARKET OPEN FOR CONSOLI DATI ON
Captive or Sovereign fleet Stock listed companies Small owners are data deficient
Differentiate spot players vs industrial players 53 46 44 40 38 32 31 26 25 22 19 18 95 183 30 34 30
China Merchants (11) Bahri (8) China COSCO (9) NIOC Angelicoussis (7) MOL Euronav NV DHT (2) Gener8 Maritime (1) Frontline (4) Nippon Yussan SK Holdings 10-15 Ship Owner 4-10 Ship Owner 3 Ship Owner 2 Ship Owner 1 Ship Owner
5 0 %
VLCC fleet controlled by Top 1 2 ow ners
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Source Clarksons Source Clarksons
(11) Refers to NB on order within each group total
Data Deficient
Num ber of VLCCs / Suezm ax % of VLCCs / Suezm ax
ULCC into the largest 2 FSOs in the world
income service contract in Qatar delivering $36mm free cashflow annually until 2022
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FSO – PART OF “BOTTLENECK” PROCESSI NG 3 0 0 K BPD EBI TDA FROM FSO CONTRACTS CRUDE PROCESSED TO GRADE QUALI TY
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Q1-17 2016 62% 2015 63% 2014 48% 2013 37% 64% 909 879 921 Q1-17 2016 2015 2014 1,212 2013 1,059
LI QUI DI TY ( USDm ) VALUE ADJUSTED EQUI TY RATI O( 1 ) ( % ) EBI TDA FROM FI XED RATE CONTRACTS( 2 ) ( USDm ) NET DEBT ( USDm )
1) Book equity value adjusted for broker valuations 2) On proportionate basis covering all joint ventures
155 155 144 122 136 2013 2017 (est.) 2014 2015 2016
792 597 383 267 163 Today 2016 2015 2014 2013
liquidity pool
creates a 3 year runway through the cycles
at all times and maintain strong banking relationships
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CURRENT LI QUI DI TY ( USDm )
Since 2 0 1 4
2 5 VESSELS ACQUI SI TI ON HI GH DI VI DEND YI ELD
MAINTAIN STRONG BALANCE SHEET ≈ 50% ( Leverage)
+
1 . KEEP STRONG BALANCE SHEET 2 . RI GHT MI X OF EQUI TY & DEBT 3 . KEEP OR LOW ER AVERAGE BREAK-EVEN
ACQUI SI TI ON CRI TERI AS
Leverage
As evidenced by
STRONG BALANCE SHEET HEDGE TOW ARDS CYLI CALI TY CAPI TAL ALLOCATI ON KEY TO GROW TH STRATEGY
SEASONALI TY: AVERAGE MONTHLY VLCC RATE 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 1 6 1 YEAR TC VLCC
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Source Clarksons
– ~ USD 18,500 / day for VLCC ~ USD 15,750 / day for Suezmax
(1) Before fixed term contracts
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000
Cash break even
Source Clarksons
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 low average high
113k 152k 145k 155k 147k 204k 136k
Leverage 13
HI GHLI GHTS REPAYMENT SCHEDULE AND RCF REDUCTI ONS
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2022 2020 Repayments Reductions Balloon Unsecured Bond
relationships with the leading international shipping banks
credit facilities reduce by $138m/ year
debt amortizations
term loans: $55m/ year
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Assum ing no additional speculative new building
Dem and for Oil ROBUST
last 25 years with yearly average 1.1 mbpd
mbpd pa growth 2017 & 2018
years of growth since 1990 for global crude demand
Supply of Oil BALANCED
OPEC increase supply
shale New Sw ing Producer very resilient & responsive
impact but for how long?
Ton Miles CHANGEABLE
barrels been replaced by primarily by Middle East supply reducing ton miles
increase ton miles from 2017
Vessel Supply
S/ TERM HEADW I NDS L/ T MANAGEABLE ONLY I F OW NERS ARE DI SCI PLI NED
impacted by factors increasing tonnage
fallen substantially & shipyards under reform pressure
Financing & Regulation NEW BARRI ER TO ENTRY
(Basel 3 & 4) restricting lending
loans has reduced risk appetite
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Y/ Y CHANGE I N GLOBAL DEMAND FOR OI L - GROW I NG THE I EA ESTI MATES FOR OI L GROW TH OI L PRI CE I MPACT ON TANKER DEMAND
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD per barrel Demand/ supply Disruptive Demand stim ulating Neutral Demand Destructive Capex cuts in E&P Lack of disruption/ market share game
Source IEA, McQuilling, Bernstein, Barclay, Petrowin and Bloomberg 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.0 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.5 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.6
3.1 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.8 1.6
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Million barrels per day
Average 1.1 million barrels per day
1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demand growth m bpd
Source IEA
Long term average CONSI STENTLY GROW I NG
0.6 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.7
Average field development (approval to start up) time by resource [ years, selected areas]
Source SBC Analysis, Rystad Source Economist
OI L SUPPLY ELEVATED BUT PRI CE CAPPED SHALE OI L SPEED TO PRODUCTI ON I S KEY GLOBAL OI L SUPPLY I S GROW I NG AVERAGE SHALE W ELL COST ( m USD)
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84,000 86,000 88,000 90,000 92,000 94,000 96,000 98,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
kbpd
Source Clarksons
2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 4Q14 1Q16
Source Citigroup
1.4 mbpd x 365 days = 5 1 1 m barrels 5 1 1 m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 2 5 6 cargoes 2 5 6 cargoes / 9 annual journeys for VLCC MEG – F East = 2 8 VLCCs Arabian Gulf to China 5,500 miles 21 days West Africa to China 9,650 miles 33 days LatAm to China 11,500 miles 44 days
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1.4 mbpd x 365 days = 5 1 1 m barrels 5 1 1 m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 2 5 6 cargoes 2 5 6 cargoes / 4.5 annual journeys for VLCC Atlantic – F East = 5 7 VLCCs Average oil demand growth 1990-2015 = 1.1 mbpd
I m porter
Exporter
Supply Demand Demand Supply
DEMAND GROW TH ALL FROM FAR EAST – FOR TANKERS I MPORTANT W HERE SUPPLY I S SOURCED FROM
Source Euronav, Morgan Stanley
West Africa US/LatAm / Caribs Middle East Asia Pacific China
28 VLCCs 57 VLCCs
Atlantic Basin – Far East route Middle East - Asia Pacific route
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Corpus Christi 1.3m bpd Houston/ Freeport 1.4m bpd Port Arthur/ Nederland 1.7m bpd New Orleans/ Louisiana (Ex LOOP) 0.6m bpd Total 5 .0 m bpd
SUCCESSFUL TRI AL @ CORPUS CHRI STI ( May-1 7 ) US I NFRASTRUCTURE ROLL OUT ACCELERATI NG CORPUS CHRI STI OI L EXPORT I NFRASTRUCTURE
Source Euronav Source RBN Energy
Congress approval for $350m dredging
Gateway, slated to open in 2019
PORT LOCATI ON CURRENT CRUDE EXPORT CAPACI TY
Source Evercore
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2 1 days carriage 4 4 days carriage
USA EXPORTS – GROW I NG, VERY POSI TI VE FOR TON MI LES
Source US DOE
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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1h 2016 2h 2016 1h 2017 '000 bbl per day US crude exports Canada RoW
GLOBAL FLEET - JULY 2 0 1 7 VLCC Suezm ax VLCC Equivalent 102 on order 61 on order 133 on order 727 total 489 total 972 total 14.0% order book as % fleet 12.5% order book as % fleet 13.6% order book as % fleet
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Open Market, 323 Captive, 187 Chinese, 77 Quoted , 125 Storage, 15 Open Market Captive Chinese Quoted Storage Open Market, 320 Captive, 40 Chinese, 3 Quoted , 126 Open Market Captive Chinese Quoted
VLCC FLEET BREAKDOW N SUEZMAX FLEET BREAKDOW N
Source Morgan Stanley
ORDER RI SE FROM SPECI FI C SI TUATI ON I N S. KOREA CONTRACTI NG = ok but More = UNSUSTAI NABLE Order flow needs context – since Jan 2016 - 53 VLCCs & 26 Suezmax orders – in line with historical average
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Mid 2000 2017 Number of small to mid-size yards in Korea, 2000 versus 2017
Small-to-mid-size shipbuilder in Korea
SOUTH KOREA CONTI NUES TO RATI ONALI SE YARDS
1 2 3 4 5 6 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17
US$bn
HHI & Samho SHI DSME Mipo + 364% YoY aggregate
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
2016-Jan 2016-Feb 2016-Mar 2016-Apr 2016-May 2016-Jun 2016-Jul 2016-Aug 2016-Sep 2016-Oct 2016-Nov 2016-Dec 2017-Jan 2017-Feb 2017-Mar 2017-Apr 2017-May 2017-Jun 2017-Jul
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
$ value of total ship orders in each Q1 in Korea in past 5 years
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* Since Jan 1 2016 VLCC SUEZMAX
VLCC ORDER BOOK SUEZMAX ORDER BOOK
(48) (25) (13) (22) (11) (19) (33) (7) (26) (37) (23) 19 48 35 54 62 49 30 24 23 47 32 (80) (60) (40) (20) 20 40 60 80 2017
2016
2015
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2019 2018 Could be scrapped (≥ 20 years old) Must be scrapped (over 22.5 years old) Scrapped Forecast Additions Additions (19) (7) (20) (7) (9) (15) (21) (25) (15) (26) (31) 25 28 8
38 43 45 27 8 10 24 33
(70) (60) (50) (40) (30) (20) (10) 10 20 30 40 50 60 2019 2018 2017
2016
2015 2010 2014 2013 2012 2011
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Source Clarksons data @16 June 2017
4 Could be scrapped (≥ 20 years old) Must be scrapped (over 22.5 years old) Scrapped Forecast Additions Additions
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Source Clarkson
VLCC ORDER BOOK VS RI SI NG FLEET AGE PROFI LE
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SUEZMAX ORDER BOOK VS RI SI NG FLEET AGE PROFI LE
2019 2018 2017
33 35 7 48 18 19 32 34 25 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 VLCC Order book VLCC up to 2019
20+ years 19 years 18 years 17 years 16 years 15 years 102
24 25 24 28 13 8 15 25 20 40 60 80 100 120 Suezmax Order book Suezmax up to 2018
20+ years 19 years 18 years 17 years 16 years 15 years 2019 2018 2017 61
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TANKER SHI PPI NG - HI GHLY REGULATED TO SCRAP OR NOT TO SCRAP – HI GHLI GHTED LI NES KEY SCRAP PRI CES RI SI NG – TEMPTI NG OW NERS?
Source Clarksons Source Euronav Source Morgan Stanley
4 5 10 15 20 25 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
VLCC scrap price $M
BWT costs not included
VESSEL AGE 1 5 1 7 .5 2 0 Vessel Value today 23.3 19.4 15.5 Vessel Value next special survey 19.4 15.5 15.5 Value difference over next 2.5 years 3.9 3.9 0.0 Next Special Survey (USD million) 2.5 3.3 4.0 Ballast Water Capex $m 1.8 1.8 1.8 Total I nvestm ent Cost ( $ m ) 8 .2 9 5 .8 Investment Cost per day over next 2.5 years 8,904 9,726 6,301 Opex; Overhead 11,000 11,750 12,500 Breakeven per day over next 2.5 years 19,904 21,476 18,801 Assumed utilization 80% 70% 50% Required day rate ( $ ) 2 4 ,8 8 0 3 0 ,6 8 0 3 7 ,6 0 3 SHI P OW NER’S CHOI CE CAPI TAL CONSI DERATI ON Scrap value June 2017 $m 15.1 15.1 15.1 OPERATI ONAL CONSI DERATI ON Required day rate ($/ day) 24,880 30,680 37,603
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DEMAND AND SUPPLY I NTERACTI ON ON VLCC EQUI VALENTS 2 0 1 6 - 2 0 1 9 W HAT I EA DEMAND TRANSLATES I NTO VLCC EQUI VALENTS REQUI RED PA
2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 Total VLCC to be delivered 45 51 48 35 Total Suezmax to be delivered 24 58 28 8 VLCC equivalents to be delivered* 57 80 62 39 + / - Gibsons Scrapping forecast
49 43 43 37 IEA demand forecast bpd m 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 = Yearly Net Surplus/ (Deficit) 19
Cum ulative Surplus/ ( Deficit) 8 2 7 2 3 VLCC Equivalent fleet (assuming no scrapping) 928 1007 1066 1102
I EA dem and forecast m bpd VLCC equivalent* I EA dem and forecast m bpd VLCC equivalent*
1.6 49 1.1 33 1.5 46 1.0 30 1.4 43 0.9 27 1.3 40 0.8 24 1.2 37 0.7 21
Source Clarksons, Gibsons * VLCC equivalent = 1 VLCC = 2 Suezmax
SUPPLY DEMAND
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2016 2017 2018 2019 VLCC Equivalents VLCC Equivalents to be Delivered Demand based on IEA forecast Cumulative Surplus/ (Deficit)
Around USD 94bn withdrawn from shipping sector since 2010
flexibility severely curtailed due to Basel II & III
loans in distress
lending capital restricted for commercial reasons
the lack of liquidity implying a return to the sector difficult to realize
segments under severe financial pressure
have mixed fleets so pressure felt within
shipping segments leading to ship yard distress
actively adopted by shipyards driven by governments
Source: Petrofin 2 0 1 7
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PETROFI N GLOBAL I NDEX COMPARED W I TH GLOBAL FLEET DEVELOPMENT I NDEX GLOBAL END OF THE YEAR LOAN SHI PPI NG PORTFOLI O
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47% 49% 66% 70% 77% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Euronav Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4
Net Debt to EV
18% 0% 2% 7% 9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Euronav Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4
% of Revenue from Fixed income for 2017 HI GHEST DELI VERED PAYOUT LOW EST LEVERAGE I N SECTOR UNMATCHED FI XED I NCOME
Source Company reports, Bloomberg
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Euronav Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4
Dividend per share paid 2015 & 2016
31 VLCC TCE rates $25,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $80,000 Suezmax TCE rates $20,000 $25,000 $35,000 $45,000 $75,000
$264 $339 $493 $650 $1,092 + $5,000 per day + $15,000 per day + $25,000 per day + $55,000 per day
OPERATI ONAL LEVERAGE OPERATI ONAL LEVERAGE
FSO 5 year contract to 2022 Long term TC 7 year contract to 2024 Commercial TC 1-3 year length
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33 speculative replacement growth speculative replacement growth chinese japanese
TOTAL VLCC ORDERBOOK – 2 / 3 REPLACEMENT TOTAL SUEZMAX ORDER BOOK – 8 0 % REPLACEMENT VLCCs ordered in 2 0 1 7 Ow nership of those ordering VLCC in 2 0 1 7
Source Clarksons
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10 7 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1
VLCCs ordered VLCCs 20+ age VLCCs 15-20 age
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HMM Angelicoussis Cardiff BW Group Lemos Shandong Tai Chong Frontline DHT Sentek Kyoei Neda