ERP Horizon Scanning Project 1 Watersheds. FUTURE FACTS = 0 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ERP Horizon Scanning Project

1

Watersheds.

FUTURE FACTS = 0

Integrated Foresight

Why explore possible futures?

Audience - Big Year for Energy Planning

• DECC and Government Departments

– Dec 2015: Committee on Climate Change 5th Carbon Budget 2028 - 2032 – Q1&2 2016: Development of Carbon Plan (Normative trajectory around 80% cuts to 2050 on 1990)

• Outputs / Participation
• HMG - DECC Strategy, Science and Technology and

Policy Teams

• UK Energy Sector more broadly.

5

Stated Project Aim `identify what the main uncertainties that will impact international and UK energy sector development which might need to be considered over a number of timeframes.’

6

Stated Objectives 1

• Harvest a number of points of view from

different sectors;

• What are their underlying rationale for looking

at those issues;

• Organise the information; and
• Then relay it to the energy community with a

particular focus to the energy policy audience.

7

Outputs and Impact

• A cataloguing of the underlying assumptions:

why; impacts - 3 x Tiers;

• A list of technology game changers - in traded

and non-traded emissions sectors;

• Path dependencies, timing of trends and when

those trends need to be accounted for; and

• So what? The implications as to what the UK

should do regarding these issues.

8

Workshops

9

Thought leaders requested at one of two exclusive day long workshops on either 30th November or 7th December between 0930 to 1700 at The Royal Academy of Engineering, 3 Carlton House Terrace, London.

Follow up work

• A living document;
• Changes Slide Decks and Summary paper for each

event;

• Scenarios will be generated from the key issues

picked up in the horizon scanning exercise;

• Energy, Policy and Financial Modelling may be

undertaken

• Overarching Final Report with accompanying

slide deck targeted at policy makers and industry.

10

Hopes Fears Extrapolation Imagination

CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE

THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK

MANAGER VISIONARY ENTREPRENEUR

Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDs Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor - iTunes Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster - Napster

Other work: UKERC Meta Study on Energy Scenarios

• Diversity is important
• Scenarios not just wrong, but outside modelled boundaries
• Developments considered too unlikely did materialise
• Scenarios mirrored biggest concerns of the time, but the most

important were not always captured – especially true of institutional, political and governance elements

• Actual pathways more challenging than ‘least-cost’ models

suggest

• Quantification is too precise

– false impression of accuracy and certainty

• Failure should be ‘allowed’
• Think the unthinkable

16

ERP Members Input

• Clarification of the outputs so that useful

inputs into other energy futures work; and

• Dissemination of the horizon scanning survey.

17