Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Callixte KAMBANDA Manager - Energy Policy, Regulation & Statistics African Development Bank c.kambanda@afdb.org

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa

Bangkok, 21-23 February 2018

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Ov Over erview view of

• f the pr

the presen esenta tation tion

• 1. Status of the Energy access in Africa
• 2. The New Deal on Energy 2016—2025
• 3. The cost of the New Deal on Energy 2016—2025
• 4. Electricity Access Outlook (under the New Deal)
• 5. Regional opportunities to increase Energy Access
• 6. Conclusions

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

Source: AfDB, 2016

Africa compared to the rest of the World

1 Association of Southeast Asian Nations. 2 Bangladesh, DPR Korea, India, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Other Asia.

Status of the Energy access in Africa:

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Status of the Energy access in Africa

18 8 14 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 "Less than 5%" "Between 5-10%" "Between 10-40%" "Above 40%"

African countries grouped by level of their population percentage with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology (2014)

0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 Central Africa East Africa North Africa Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Southern Africa West Africa

Africa - % of population with access to electricity

2014 2016 Source: AfDB, 2017

positive trend but significant efforts needed to achieve the SDG7 by 2030

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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The New Deal on Energy for Africa, NDEA (2016—2025)

• 100% access in urban

areas; and

• 95% access in rural

areas.

• 130 million new on-grid

connections

• 75 million end-users on
• ff-grid solutions.

One billion Africans have access to modern energy services NDEA is partnership driven effort

Source: AfDB, 2015

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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Universal access by 2025 means: 200 millions HH connected and nearly doubling the current grid generation capacity.

≈ 80 GW of new capacity currently under construction ≈ 160 GW of new Capacity to be added. ≈ 130 M new

• n-grid

connections ≈ 75 M new off- grid connections

Source: AfDB, 2015

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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Africa – The cost of the New Deal on Energy 2016—2025

Source: AfDB, 2017

INVESTMENT NEEDS TO ACHIEVE NDEA TARGETS

≈ USD 30 bn : Total average annual investment needed (new estimates). ≈ USD 230 bn : Total investment needs by 2030 ≈ USD 420 bn : Total investment needs by 2040

≈ USD 75 bn of currently under construction (80 GW)

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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Africa – Electricity Access Outlook (under the New Deal)

Household access to electricity (Million) and Connection rate (%) projections

Source: AfDB Statistics Department and Muticonsult

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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Africa – Electricity Access Outlook

Universal access by year of realization

Source: AfDB Statistics Department and Muticonsult

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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Africa – Regional opportunities to increase Energy Access

East Africa

• more than quadrupling of installed

capacity by 2030.

• undergo significant system

integration

• countries look to meet growing

demand and utilize comparative resources advantages

Southern Africa

• reducing energy intensity in

dampens forecasted demand growth and new investment requirements

• coal power in South Africa

continues to dominate the generation mix

• system is already highly integrated
• some smaller countries, reap

significant benefits from the integration

Source: Atlas of Africa Energy Resources, ICA 2017

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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KEY FIGURES & TRENDS

African Regional Power Pool (RPP) Installed Capacity in the RPP (MW) Total Consumption in the RPP (GWh) Projected Demand by 2030 (TWh) Projected Investment Needs by 2030 (USD bn)

Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP)

61,859 (2015) 269,375 (2015) 570 270

West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)

19,648 (2015) 50,634 (2015) 250 170

Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP)

54,311 (2013) 232,505 (2013) 500 400

Central Africa Power Pool (WAPP)

6,299 (2013) 24,744 (2013) 90 60

Comité Maghrebin d'Electricité (COMELEC)

36,367 (2013) 120,200 (2013) 980 450

PIDA1 estimated that Regional Integration would save USD 33 billion p.a.

• n average by 2040 in power generation costs

1PIDA: Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa

Source: Regional Power Pool Report, ICA 2015

Northern Africa

• more most countries

are already at or near full access

• demand growth is

therefore primarily driven by the forecasted economic growth

Africa – Regional opportunities to increase Energy Access Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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Conclusions

 Access to adequate energy services in Africa remains a big challenge to achieving SDG7;  NDEA: Bank’s strategy as a response to this challenge of Africa’s Energy Access;  NDEA is a partnership driven effort aiming at achieving 100% access for electricity in urban area and 95% in rural area under the New deal by 2025;  some countries will move on at a lower pace and they will only achieve universal access by 2028.  Furthermore, the « New Deal » strategy is perfectly aligned with SDGs, particularly SDG7 and will ensure Africa’s path to achieve the targets by 2030.  Huge investments needs: The NDEA aims also at supporting African countries to improve environment to attract investments: Policies, Legal, Regulations and Data.

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018

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THANK YOU

Call llixt ixte KAMBA BANDA | Division ion Mana nager ger | P Poli licy cy, Regul gulatio tion n and d Statis tistic ics| Energy gy Solut utions, ions, Poli licy cy and d Regul ulatio tion Departme ment nt | Afri rica can n Deve velopmen ent Bank nk | 01 B.P . 1387 387 Abidjan idjan 01- Ave venu nue e Jean n Paul ul II Côte d'Ivoire e | T Tel : (225) 25) 2026 26 2649 49 | E-mail il: c.kamb mbanda da@afd @afdb.or b.org

Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa