EMRAS I I , W G 8 The Alpine scenario Jochen Tschiersch Departm - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EMRAS I I , W G 8 The Alpine scenario Jochen Tschiersch Departm - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EMRAS I I , W G 8 The Alpine scenario Jochen Tschiersch Departm ent of Radiation Sciences, I nstitute of Radiation Protection, Germ any w ith support by Heinz Mller, Helm holtz Zentrum Mnchen, Germ any ( Standard scenario) Gert Sdouz,

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SLIDE 1

EMRAS I I , W G 8 The Alpine scenario

Jochen Tschiersch Departm ent of Radiation Sciences, I nstitute of Radiation Protection, Germ any

w ith support by

Heinz Müller, Helm holtz Zentrum München, Germ any ( Standard scenario) Gert Sdouz, ARC Seibersdorf Research, Austria ( Alpine scenario)

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SLIDE 2

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

ECOSYS – Standard approach

Contamination and dose calculation using ECOSYS (Müller & Pröhl, 1993) and RODOS (Müller et al., 2000) Inhalation Ingestion External exposure from the plume External exposure from deposited radionuclides (groundshine) External exposure from skin and clothes

Müller H., Pröhl G.: ECOSYS-87: A Dynamic Model for Assessing Radiological Consequences of Nuclear Accidents. Health Physics 64(3), 232-252 (1993) Müller H., Gering F., Pröhl G.: Model Description of the Terrestrial Food Chain and Dose Module FDMT in RODOS PV4.0, Report RODOS(WG3)-TN(99)17, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (2000)

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SLIDE 3

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

ECOSYS – Alpine scenario

Customization of the parameters of the food chain and dose module ECOSYS to Austrian Conditions: OECOSYS (Sdouz & Pachole, 2006) Austria has been divided into three radioecological regions:

  • Alpine region,
  • foothills of the Alps and
  • Pannonic region.

These regions define areas with relative uniform radioecological conditions for which the same set of model parameters can be used.

Gert Sdouz, Manfred Pachole: FOOD CHAIN DATA CUSTOMIZATION FOR DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS IN AUSTRIA. Second European IRPA Congress on Radiation Protection, 15-19 May 2006, Paris, France

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SLIDE 4

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

ECOSYS – Alpine scenario

Customization of the parameters of the food chain and dose module ECOSYS to Austrian Conditions: OECOSYS (Sdouz & Pachole, 2006) Austria has been divided into three radioecological regions:

  • Alpine region,

Herbert Lettner, Peter Bossew, Friederike Strebl: 137CS UND 90SR VERTEILUNG AUF ALMEN DER SALZBURGER HOHEN TAUERN UND AKTIVITÄTSKONZENTRATIONEN IN LEBENSMITTELN, Salzburg, 2003

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SLIDE 5

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

ECOSYS – Alpine scenario

For the model calculation, the parameter set for the Alpine region of the food chain and dose module OECOSYS was used. Compared to the standard parameters the following changes were made: Growing period leaf area index (time) Consumption habits But : same transfer factors!

Herbert Lettner, Peter Bossew, Friederike Strebl: 137CS UND 90SR VERTEILUNG AUF ALMEN DER SALZBURGER HOHEN TAUERN UND AKTIVITÄTSKONZENTRATIONEN IN LEBENSMITTELN, Salzburg, 2003

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SLIDE 6

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

standard - alpine scenario

GrasI GrasE Datum1

  • 01. Jan
  • 01. Jan

Bewuchsdichte1 0.03 0.03 Datum2

  • 15. Mrz
  • 15. Mrz

Bewuchsdichte2 0.05 0.05 Datum3

  • 16. Mai
  • 30. Jun

Bewuchsdichte3 1.50 1.50 Datum4

  • 31. Okt
  • 31. Okt

Bewuchsdichte4 1.50 1.50 Datum5

  • 01. Nov
  • 01. Nov

Bewuchsdichte5 0.05 0.05 Datum6

  • 31. Dez
  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte6 0.03 0.03 Datum7

  • 31. Dez
  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte7 0.03 0.03 Datum8

  • 31. Dez
  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte8 0.03 0.03 Datum9

  • 31. Dez
  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte9 0.03 0.03 Wachstumsbeginn

  • 15. Mrz
  • 15. Mrz

Ernte-Anfang

  • 20. Apr
  • 20. Apr

Ernte-Ende

  • 10. Nov
  • 10. Nov

Ertrag (kg/m²) zeitabhängig zeitabhängig [Ö = DPL30] GrasI Datum1

  • 01. Jan

Bewuchsdichte1 0.01 Datum2

  • 01. Apr

Bewuchsdichte2 0.05 Datum3

  • 01. Jun

Bewuchsdichte3 1.50 Datum4

  • 20. Okt

Bewuchsdichte4 1.50 Datum5

  • 21. Okt

Bewuchsdichte5 0.05 Datum6

  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte6 0.01 Datum7

  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte7 0.01 Datum8

  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte8 0.01 Datum9

  • 31. Dez

Bewuchsdichte9 0.01 Wachstumsbeginn

  • 01. Apr

Ernte-Anfang

  • 15. Mai

Ernte-Ende

  • 20. Okt

Ertrag (kg/m²) zeitabhängig

harvest Pasture Pasture

start end growth start

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SLIDE 7

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

standard alpine scenario

Fütterung, Milchkuh

Ration: Gras und Heu

Datum Tag im Jahr Futter1 / Index Futter2 / Index Gras Heu 1 2

  • 01. Jan

1 14

  • 15. Mai

135

  • 04. Jun

155 70

  • 30. Sep

273 70

  • 20. Okt

293 14

  • 31. Dez

365 14

  • 31. Dez

365

  • 31. Dez

365

Ration: Gras und Heu

Datum Tag im Jahr Futter1 / Index Futter2 / Index Gras Heu 1 2

  • 01. Jan

1 14

  • 20. Apr

111 14

  • 10. Mai

131 70

  • 20. Okt

294 70

  • 09. Nov

314 14

  • 31. Dez

365 14

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SLIDE 8

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

standard - alpine scenario consumption habits

Age 1 a 10 a adult Milk standard l/a 204.4 65.7 84.0 Milk alpine l/a 175.9 99.7 130.3

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SLIDE 9

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Contamination Cs-137, 1 Februar, wet

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit) Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg) Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit)

alpine

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg)

standard

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SLIDE 10

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Dose by foodstuff Cs-137, 1 Februar, wet

Ingestion dose: contributions of foodstuffs

5.0E-04 1.0E-03 1.5E-03 2.0E-03 2.5E-03 3.0E-03 1day 1 week 2 weeks 1 month 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 50 years 70 years Time period Ingestion dose (mSv) Meat Milk products Cereals Vegetables, fruit

Ingestion dose: contributions of foodstuffs

1.0E-03 2.0E-03 3.0E-03 4.0E-03 5.0E-03 6.0E-03 1day 1 week 2 weeks 1 month 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 50 years 70 years Time period Ingestion dose (mSv) Meat Milk products Cereals Vegetables, fruit

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SLIDE 11

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Dose Cs-137, 1 Februar, wet, adult

Comparison of all exposure pathways

Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont.

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-07 1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv) Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont.

alpine

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-07 1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv)

standard

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SLIDE 12

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Contamination Cs-137, 1 Februar, dry

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit) Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 1.0E+04 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg) Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit)

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 1.0E+04 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg)

alpine standard

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SLIDE 13

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Dose Cs-137, 1 Februar, dry, adult

Comparison of all exposure pathways

Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont. Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 1.00E-01 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv) Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont.

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 1.00E-01 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv)

alpine standard

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SLIDE 14

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Contamination Cs-137, 15 May, wet

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit) Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg) Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit)

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg) Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit)

alpine standard

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SLIDE 15

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 Dose (mSv) Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont.

Dose Cs-137, 15 May, wet, adult

standard

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-07 1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv) Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont.

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 1.00E-01 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv)

alpine

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SLIDE 16

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit)

Contamination Cs-137, 15 May, dry

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg) Leafy vegetables Berries Cow's milk Cheese (rennit)

Activity concentration in foodstuffs

1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Concentration of activity (Bq/kg)

standard alpine

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SLIDE 17

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Dose Cs-137, 15 May, dry, 1a

standard alpine

Ingestion dose: contributions of foodstuffs

5.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.5E-02 2.0E-02 2.5E-02 3.0E-02 3.5E-02 4.0E-02 4.5E-02 5.0E-02 1day 1 week 2 weeks 1 month 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 50 years 70 years Time period Ingestion dose (mSv) Meat Milk products Cereals Vegetables, fruit

Ingestion dose: contributions of foodstuffs

2.0E-02 4.0E-02 6.0E-02 8.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.2E-01 1day 1 week 2 weeks 1 month 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 50 years 70 years Time period Ingestion dose (mSv) Meat Milk products Cereals Vegetables, fruit

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SLIDE 18

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Dose Cs-137, 15 May, dry, adult

Comparison of all exposure pathways

Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont.

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 1.00E-01 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv) Sum Ingestion Inhalation Cloud Ground Skin cont.

Comparison of all exposure pathways

1.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 1.00E-01 1.00E+00 01.01.2011 20.07.2011 05.02.2012 23.08.2012 11.03.2013 27.09.2013 Date Dose (mSv)

alpine standard

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SLIDE 19

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

1 0 0 0 Bq/ m 2 deposition of Cs-1 3 7 resulting total dose in m Sv

alpine w et 1 a 1 0 a adult 1 February 1st year 3.5E-03 3.1E-03 3.1E-03 2nd year 2.8E-03 2.8E-03 2.8E-03 15 May 1st year 5.5E-03 5.4E-03 6.2E-03 2nd year 2.9E-03 3.0E-03 3.2E-03 1 August 1st year 9.2E-03 9.8E-03 1.5E-02 2nd year 3.0E-03 3.3E-03 3.9E-03 1 November 1st year 2nd year

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SLIDE 20

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

1 0 0 0 Bq/ m 2 deposition of Cs-1 3 7 resulting total dose in m Sv

alpine dry 1 a 1 0 a adult 1 February 1st year 1.4E-02 1.5E-02 2.0E-02 2nd year 6.7E-03 8.0E-03 7.6E-03 15 May 1st year 3.9E-02 4.4E-02 6.1E-02 2nd year 6.7E-03 9.9E-03 1.2E-02 1 August 1st year 1.4E-01 1.5E-01 2.8E-01 2nd year 8.8E-03 1.8E-02 2.7E-02 1 November 1st year 2nd year

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SLIDE 21

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

1 0 0 0 Bq/ m 2 deposition of Cs-1 3 7 resulting total dose in m Sv

standard dry 1 a 1 0 a adult 1 February 1st year 1.5E-02 1.2E-02 1.7E-02 2nd year 5.4E-03 4.3E-03 5.5E-03 15 May 1st year 8.2E-02 8.2E-02 1.4E-01 2nd year 2.8E-02 2.8E-02 4.6E-02 1 August 1st year 1.3E-01 1.2E-01 2.2E-01 2nd year 4.6E-03 8.9E-03 1.7E-02 1 November 1st year 2nd year

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SLIDE 22

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

1 0 0 0 Bq/ m 2 deposition of Cs-1 3 7 resulting total dose in m Sv

standard w et 1 a 1 0 a adult 1 February 1st year 3.5E-03 2.8E-03 2.8E-03 2nd year 2.7E-03 2.3E-03 2.4E-03 15 May 1st year 7.7E-03 6.9E-03 9.8E-03 2nd year 3.2E-03 3.6E-03 4.5E-03 1 August 1st year 8.0E-03 8.0E-03 1.3E-02 2nd year 2.6E-03 2.6E-03 3.1E-03 1 November 1st year 2nd year

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SLIDE 23

EMRAS II-WG 8, Brussels, 27-28 September 2011

Thank you for your attention!