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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad Emissions Inventory and Modeling: India Presentation Presented by P.R. Shukla Presented at The 11th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-20, 2006 Presentation Agenda 1.

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Presented at The 11th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-20, 2006 Presented by

P.R. Shukla

Emissions Inventory and Modeling: India Presentation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

1. Multi-gas emissions inventory assessment (Period: 1985 to 2005)

Gases

  • CO2
  • CH4
  • N2O
  • F-Gases
  • BC/OC
  • Local Air Pollutants (SO2, NOX, CO, TSP)

2. AIM model applications

Multi-gas Emissions Scenarios Modeling for Low Carbon Society Use of AIM CGE Model for South-Asia Cooperation Scenarios

3. Contributions, Capacity Building and Dissemination 4. Conclusions and Future Work

Presentation Agenda

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Multi-gas emissions inventory assessment

(Period: 1985 to 2005) Gases

  • CO2
  • CH4
  • N2O

F-Gases BC/OC Local Air Pollutants (SO2, NOX, CO, TSP)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

GHG Emissions from sectors in India: 1994

. Waste Agriculture 28% LULUCF 1%

  • Ind. proc

. 8% Energy 61% 2%

55 380 793 200 400 600 800 1000 CO2 CH4 N2O CO

2 eq ('000 Gg)

CO2 65% CH4

31% N2O 4%

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

1985

CO2 52% CH4 43% N2O 5% F-gases 0.4%

2005

CO2 71% CH4 24% N2O 4% F-gases 1%

GHG Share trend: 1985 to 2005

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Post NATCOM Changes

  • Earlier estimates used few India specific coefficients + IPCC default emission factors
  • NATCOM updated emissions coefficients and estimate activity levels
  • Increase of 8% emissions from previous estimates of CO2
  • Change in carbon emissions factors, esp. Indian coal, explains 1.4% of increase
  • Industrial process emissions from sources that were not captured in earlier estimates. These add

about 26 Mt-CO2 to the “Other industries” category, explaining 3.2% of the upward revision

  • Improvement activity data and reallocation of emissions for some categories, such as “other

sectors” and “Other industries”. Activity data changes contributed 2.6% of the upward revision

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sector Contribution to CO2 emissions: Tg-CO2

Sector 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) Power 146 213 379 517 638 7.7 Road 45 67 82 116 143 5.9 Railway 20 14 6 5 6

  • 5.8

Aviation 2 2.5 3 4 5 4.7 Shipping 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 4.7 Cement 28 43 56 77 98 6.5 Iron & steel 56 74 83 92 103 3.1 Fertilizer 20 22 23 23 24 1.0 Other industries 62 82 91 98 109 2.9 Other sectors 57 76 92 97 102 3.0 All India 436.4 594 815.6 1029.8 1229 5.3

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

District level CO2 emissions: 1985 & 2005

1985 2005

10 20 30 >40 CO2 Million Tons

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Source categories 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) Enteric fermentation 8.80 9.00 9.42 9.60 9.62 0.4 Paddy Cultivation 4.01 4.02 4.08 4.03 4.02 0.0 Biomass burnt for energy 1.61 1.62 1.67 1.76 1.80 0.6 MSW disposal 0.62 0.68 0.75 0.84 0.96 2.2 Manure Management 0.90 0.95 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.5 Oil and natural gas related 0.23 0.50 0.65 0.94 1.13 8.4 Waste Water disposal 0.36 0.39 0.45 0.56 0.67 3.2 Coal Production 0.51 0.57 0.67 0.72 0.79 2.2 Agriculture crop residue burning 0.17 0.18 0.181 0.18 0.18 0.3 Total CH4 17.21 17.92 18.85 19.64 20.18 0.8

CH4 emissions: Tg-CH4

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

District level CH4 emissions

1985 2005

50 100 150 >200 CH4 Thousand Tons

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Source categories 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) Synthetic fertilizer use 80 94 109 129 151 3.2 Field burning of agri residue 15 18 21 21 20 1.4 Indirect soil emissions 17 19 21 25 30 2.9 Manure management 4 5 6 6 8 3.9 Fossil fuel combustion 7 9 12 15 19 4.9 Industrial processes 6 7 9 12 16 5.0 Waste 5 6 7 8 9 2.8 Total N2O 134 158 185 217 253 3.2

N2O emissions from various source categories Gg- N2O

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Emissions 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) CF4 (Gg) 0.373 0.621 0.682 0.867 1.057 5.3 C2F6 (Gg) 0.037 0.062 0.068 0.087 0.106 5.3 CF4 (Gg-CO2 Eq.) 2425 4040 4435 5637 6867 5.3 C2F6 (Gg-CO2 Eq.) 343 572 628 798 972 5.3 Imports (CO2 Eq.) 263 438 540 687 930 6.5 Total PFCs (Gg-CO2 Eq.) 3031 5049 5603 7121 8769 5.5

PFC emissions: Gg

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Emission 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR (%) HFC-134a

  • 285

1437 38 HFC-152a

  • 1

2 6 23 HFC-227ea

  • 61

137 271 16 HFC-23 873 2004 4936 9500 17 Total HFCs 873 2066 5076 9777 17

HFC emissions: Gg-CO2 Equivalents

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

200 400 600 800 1000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 T h o u s a n d T o n s Coal Diesel Gasoline Kerosene Fuel oil Biomass 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 T h o u s a n d T o n s Coal Diesel Gasoline Kerosene Fuel oil Biomass

Black Carbon Organic Carbon

Black and Organic carbon emissions 1985-2005 (’ooo Ton)

Note: These are mean values using early estimates of activities and coefficients and therefore are highly uncertain.

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Source/Sector 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR (1985-2005) Power 0.723 1.047 1.745 2.300 2.720 6.8 Steel 0.210 0.262 0.280 0.310 0.347 2.5 Fertilizer 0.125 0.106 0.125 0.124 0.130 0.2 Cement 0.074 0.097 0.108 0.160 0.206 5.2 Other Industries 0.438 0.576 0.605 0.651 0.724 2.5 Road 0.255 0.201 0.243 0.138 0.085

  • 5.3

Rail 0.130 0.069 0.027 0.011 0.012

  • 11.2

Shipping 0.006 0.008 0.010 0.013 0.015 4.6 Aviation 0.008 0.009 0.006 0.007 0.009 0.8 Biomass burning 0.215 0.216 0.217 0.215 0.210

  • 0.1

Sulfuric Acid 0.040 0.045 0.053 0.061 0.066 2.5 Lead Smelting 0.006 0.008 0.011 0.013 0.015 4.6 Zinc Smelting 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.015 0.016 0.3 Copper Smelting 0.016 0.027 0.041 0.050 0.052 6.1 Other sectors 0.130 0.160 0.178 0.190 0.192 2.0 All India 2.39 2.85 3.66 4.26 4.80 3.5

Sector level SO2 emission estimates in Tg-SO2

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

District level SO2 emissions

1985 2005

50 100 150 >200 SO2 Thousand Tons

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Source categories 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) Power 0.377 0.620 0.964 1.283 1.547 7.3 Road 0.520 0.670 0.985 1.380 1.696 6.1 Rail 0.120 0.101 0.100 0.110 0.132 0.5 Navigation 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.018 0.023 4.3 Aviation 0.018 0.024 0.033 0.042 0.051 5.4 Cement 0.040 0.060 0.085 0.116 0.148 6.7 Steel 0.123 0.152 0.181 0.206 0.231 3.2 Brick 0.078 0.094 0.109 0.133 0.165 3.8 Other industries 0.204 0.229 0.263 0.287 0.315 2.2 Biomass burning 0.586 0.633 0.670 0.670 0.650 0.5 Nitric acid production 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.011 0.013 9.8 Other sectors 0.030 0.040 0.046 0.049 0.051 2.7 All India (Tg-NOX) 2.11 2.64 3.46 4.31 5.02 4.4

Sector level NOx emission estimates in Tg-NOx

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sectors 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) Residential 31.3 32.1 33.3 34.8 35.9 0.7 Transport 1.99 2.5 3.22 4.47 5.35 5.1 Power 0.035 0.054 0.09 0.12 0.15 7.6 Brick 0.21 0.3 0.42 0.57 0.78 6.7 Other industries 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.07 4.3 All India 33.6 35 37 40 42.2 1.2

Sector level CO emission estimates in Tg-CO

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sources 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) Residential 3.94 4.13 4.19 4.23 4.18 0.3 Power 2.60 2.91 3.26 1.57 0.79

  • 5.8

Transport 0.93 1.38 1.69 2.04 2.19 4.4 Cement 0.23 0.30 0.40 0.51 0.54 4.5 Brick 0.36 0.41 0.50 0.66 0.88 4.6 Other industries 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.05 8.4 Other sectors 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 3.0 All India 8.12 9.21 10.13 9.13 8.72 0.4

Sector level TSP emission estimates in Tg-TSP

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Emissions 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR % (1985-2005) CO2 436 593 816 1030 1229 5.3 CH4 17.21 17.92 18.85 19.64 20.18 0.8 N2O 0.134 0.158 0.185 0.217 0.253 3.2 PFC (CO2 Eq.) 3.03 5.05 5.60 7.12 8.77 5.5 HFC (CO2 Eq.)

  • 0.87

2.07 5.08 9.78 17 SF6 (CO2 Eq.)

  • 0.09

2.08 89 GHG (CO2 Eq.) # 842 1025 1277 1522 1752 3.7 SO2 2.39 2.85 3.66 4.34 5.02 3.8 NOX 2.11 2.64 3.46 4.31 5.02 4.4 CO 33.6 35 37 40 42.2 1.2 TSP 8.12 9.21 10.13 9.13 8.72 0.4

Multi-gas emission trends for India over 1985-2005 in Tg

# Includes CO2, CH4, N2O, PFC, HFC and SF6. Global warming potentials of 1, 21 and 310 are used for CO2, CH4 and N2O respectively.

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AIM model applications

  • Multi-gas Emissions Scenarios
  • Modeling for Low Carbon Society
  • Use of AIM CGE Model for South-Asia Cooperation Scenarios
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian Emissions Scenarios and Modeling Framework

Fragmented

IA1

Globalization High Growth

IA2

Mixed Economy

IB1

Sustainable Development

IB2

Self Reliance

Centralization Decentralization

Market integration G

  • v

e r n a n c e

Integrated

ERB/Mini-CAM SGM AIM/Material AIM/Trend Inventory Assessment Health Impact Assessment GIS Model Productivity Global Energy Prices Regional projections Power Sector LP Demand Projection AIM/End-Use ANSWER MARKAL Stochastic MARKAL

AIM/Local

Bottom-up Models

Energy Balances Sector Demand End-use Demand Technology Share Scenarios Emissions Consolidation Prices, GDP

Top-down Models

GEMA Local Emissions Projections of Technology Specifications

Local/Sector Models

Modeling Framework

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Drivers of Future Emissions

Population

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1950

Population in billions

High Medium Low 2000 2050 2100 100 year CAGR

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 GDP index (2000=1) High Medium Low

4.5% 4 % 3.5% 5.56% 4.91 % 4.71% 50 year CAGR

Economic Growth

Conventional Drivers

  • Population
  • Economic Growth
  • Energy Resources
  • Technologies

Emerging Drivers for Developing Countries

  • Transition Processes (Lock-ins)
  • International Labor Markets
  • Human Capital
  • Knowledge Flows
  • Governance (Risks, Investments)
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Multi-gas Emissions Scenarios

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Emissions (Tg) 2000 2010 2020 2030 CO2 956 1507 2080 2572 Methane 18.63 20.08 21.73 24.36 N2O 0.308 0.505 0.689 0.807 CO2 equivalent GHGa 1454 2115 2839 3507

Indian emission projections (Tg): Reference scenario (IA2) results

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2-Eq

Indian emission growth: Reference scenario (IA2) results

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Share of CO2, CH4 and N2O under IA2 scenario

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 CH4 N2O F-Gases CO2 Equivalent (%Share)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CH4 emission projections for India under Reference scenario (IA2)

Sources 2000 2010 2020 2030 Agriculture residue 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Biomass consumption 2.91 3.00 3.07 3.11 Coal production 0.72 1.07 1.86 2.89 Oil & natural gas 0.88 0.85 0.50 0.61 Enteric fermentation in animals 7.59 8.04 8.23 8.25 Manure management 0.95 1.00 1.03 1.03 Paddy cultivation 4.00 3.98 3.93 3.87 Municipal solid waste 1.02 1.46 2.30 3.64 Waste water 0.46 0.56 0.67 0.80 Total CH4 (Tg) 18.63 20.08 21.73 24.36

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Livestock Agriculture Waste Others 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year % share

Livestock Agriculture Waste Others 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year % share

Changing contributions for future CH4 emissions under IA2 scenario

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Future Methane emissions under alternate scenarios

IA1 IA2 IB2 IB1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Tg CH4 IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sources (Gg) 2000 2010 2020 2030 Coal combustion 9.9 16.8 24.0 28.0 Oil product combustion 2.0 3.6 6.4 10.0 Field burning of agriculture residue 33.9 41.5 42.6 33.4 Biological nitrogen fixation 5.6 6.6 7.8 9.1 Natural gas combustion 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Synthetic fertilizer use 206.1 368.4 524.9 626.8 Livestock 12.2 14.1 16.3 18.8 Industrial processes 12.1 23.0 31.0 38.0 Indirect emissions 26.0 30.7 36.2 42.6 Total N2O (Gg) 307.8 504.6 689.0 806.7

N2O emission projections for India under Reference scenario (IA2)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Future N2O emissions under alternate scenarios

IA1 IA2 IB2 IB1

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Tg N2O IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modeling for Low Carbon Society

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian Emissions Scenarios

CO2 Emissions Projections for India

900 2000 1800 2700 3600 4500 5400 6300 7200 2020 2060 2100 CO2 Emissions (MT) 8100 2040 2080 IA2 IB2 IB1 IA1 IA1T

2050

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Low Carbon Society (2050): Technologies in Scenarios

IA1T IA2 IB2 IB1 IA1

750 2000 1500 2250 3000 3750 4500 2020 2050

CO2 Emissions (Million Ton)

2040 2010 2030

Frozen Technology

Conventional Technology Paths: Include significant endogenous technological change Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear Fission Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks Nuclear (Thorium), Carbon-free hydrogen Advanced materials, Nanotechnology Information highways, High speed trains Renewable Energy Technologies Push for renewable energy & recycling Bikeway, Advanced car sharing system Sustainable habitats & land-use practices Dematerialization, Material substitutions Substitution of transport by IT

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

IA1T IA2 IB2 IB1

2100 750 2000 1500 2250 3000 3750 4500 5250 6000 2020 2060

CO2 Emissions (Million Ton)

6750 2040 2080

IA1

Frozen Technology

550 ppmv

Towards GHG Stabilization (2100): Technologies in Scenarios

Renewable Energy Technologies High share of renewable Energy Lifestyle changes, Eco-friendly choices Sustainable habitats, Public amenities Dematerialization, material substitutions Substitution of transport by IT Conventional Technology Paths Synfuels, Gas hydrates, Nuclear fission Energy efficient appliances/ infrastrucutre CO2 Capture/ Storage, pipeline networks Fuel cell vehicle: Carbon-free hydrogen Nuclear Fusion, Backstops Advanced materials, Nanotechnology Information highways, High speed trains

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AIM CGE Model Application (Included in APEIS Project Presentation)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

1. Multi-gas emissions inventory assessment (Period: 1985 to 2005)

  • First time historical estimation of F-Gases and BC/OC for India (Indian Coefficients)
  • Inputs to India’s National Communications exercise (updating/enhancing emissions inventories)
  • Provide Accurate Data for Baseline Assessment for CDM Projects

2. AIM Model Applications (Contributions, Capacity Building and Interfaces)

  • Multi-gas Emissions Scenarios for India (paper for EMF 21/ Energy Journal)
  • Modeling for Low Carbon Society and Stabilization Assessment (Inputs to World Bank, COP11 and

papers in International Journals)

  • Use of AIM/CGE model for Gas Market Development and South-Asia Cooperation Scenarios

(Capacity building of Indian researchers in top-down modeling)

3. Dissemination and Interfaces

  • IPCC New Scenarios & AR4
  • Eco-Asia
  • APN’s CAPaBLE Project
  • UNEP’s “Development and Climate” Project
  • IEA’s Global Energy Outlook
  • India’s National Communications Project

Contributions, Capacity Building and Dissemination

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

  • 1. Multi-gas Emissions inventory assessment
  • Improving estimates for F-Gases and BC/OC
  • Baseline information for CDM Projects (F-Gases, Electricity Sector)
  • Comparative assessment of Inventory database with other countries in Asia-Pacific
  • 2. AIM model applications
  • New Emissions Scenarios – Improving Specifications of Issues and Dynamics from Asia
  • Updating AIM Country Model for India
  • Aim CGE Model Development for India
  • Harmonize modeling with International Cooperation towards Low Carbon Society
  • New applications to support global clean energy and climate change programs and initiatives
  • 3. Capacity building, dissemination, interfaces and contributions to National and International

Assessment Initiatives together with the AIM team

Conclusions and Future Work