Emission and Modeling Update p OTC 2010 Annual Meeting g - - PDF document

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Emission and Modeling Update p OTC 2010 Annual Meeting g - - PDF document

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Emission and Modeling Update p OTC 2010 Annual Meeting g Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD June 3 Overview 1. Ozone Design Values 2. Conceptual Model Update 3. Emissions Inventory Updates 4. Coming Attractions We thank the following

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SLIDE 1

Emission and Modeling Update g p

OTC 2010 Annual Meeting June 3 Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD

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SLIDE 2

Overview

1. Ozone Design Values 2. Conceptual Model Update 3. Emissions Inventory Updates 4. Coming Attractions

We thank the following organizations for their work and contributions to this presentation:

  • Maine Department of Environmental Protection
  • New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services
  • Maryland Department of the Environment
  • New York Department of Environmental Conservation
  • Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
  • Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association
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SLIDE 3

Overview

1. Ozone Design Values a. 2009 Ozone Season b. 2009 Design Values c. Potential Nonattainment Areas for Reconsidered Ozone Standard

2. Conceptual Model Updates 3. Emissions Inventory Updates 4. Coming Attractions

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SLIDE 4

2009 Ozone Season Was Fairly Clean

4th Highest Monitored Value

50 - 59.9 ppb 56 - 64.9 ppb 65 - 69.9 ppb 70 - 74.9 ppb 75 - 79.9 ppb 80 - 84.9 ppb > 85 ppb

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SLIDE 5

2009 Ozone Design Values Indicate Attainment with 0.8 ppm Standard for Most of OTC

3 Yr Average of 4th Highest Monitored Values Monitored Values

< 75 ppb 75 to 84.9 ppb > 85 ppb

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SLIDE 6

Potential Nonattainment By CSA (2007-2009 DV)

No Data 65-70 ppb < 65 ppb No Data 70+ ppb

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SLIDE 7

Overview

1. Ozone Design Values g 2. Conceptual Model Update p p 3. Emissions Inventory Updates y p 4. Coming Attractions g

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SLIDE 8

Ozone Conceptual Model

  • Update to “The Nature of the Ozone Air Quality Problem

in the Ozone Transport Region: A Conceptual in the Ozone Transport Region: A Conceptual Description” NESCAUM report - October 2006

  • A qualitative synthesis of existing information, not a new

analysis

  • It seeks to address questions posed by the original EPA

guidance, e.g.:

Is O problem local or regional in character? – Is O3 problem local or regional in character? – Is transport important? – What types of weather lead to high O3? I O li it d b NO VOC b th? – Is O3 limited by NOx, VOCs, or both?

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SLIDE 9

Ozone Conceptual Model Update

  • Incorporates post-2005 scientific literature and revised EPA

guidance

  • Overview of transport meteorology, pathways, and

exceptional events p

  • Post-NOx SIP Call and CAIR Phase I ozone trends in OTR
  • Summarizes recent studies projecting future climate impacts
  • n ozone in eastern US
  • Will need to address reconsidered ozone standard
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SLIDE 10

Transport Pathways Transport Pathways

  • Smaller scale - seabreeze/surface winds

Larger scale channeled noct rnal lo

  • Larger scale - channeled; nocturnal low

level jets

  • Largest scale - synoptic; upper level ozone

reservoir

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SLIDE 11

Meteorological & Transport Paths

Surface Surface transport

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SLIDE 12

Meteorological & Transport Paths

Nocturnal low level jet j

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SLIDE 13

Meteorological & Transport Paths

Upper level level

  • zone

reservoir

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SLIDE 14

The Elevated Ozone Reservoir

  • Every bad ozone day, in the

morning hours, a large reservoir of ozone sits reservoir of ozone sits above the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down.

Ozone levels in the reservoir can – Ozone levels in the reservoir can routinely reach 60 to 100 ppb. – In the morning, ozone levels at the surface are very low.

Incoming Ozone

August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)

Incoming Ozone

August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)

  • Around 10:00 or 11:00 AM,

air begins to mix vertically allowing ozone in the

9000 12000

August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT) Beltsville, MD

Good Moderate

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Unhealthy 9000 12000

August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT) Beltsville, MD

Good Moderate

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Unhealthy Good Moderate

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Unhealthy

allowing ozone in the reservoir to mix down to the surface and degrade air quality

3000 6000 Height (ft)

Residual Layer from 1500 – 6000 ft

  • f 110 ppb

110 ppb Ozone-reduced f l

3000 6000 Height (ft)

Residual Layer from 1500 – 6000 ft

  • f 110 ppb

110 ppb Ozone-reduced f l Residual Layer from 1500 – 6000 ft

  • f 110 ppb

110 ppb Ozone-reduced f l

quality.

3000 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 Ozone (ppb)

surface layer < < 40 ppb 40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

3000 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 Ozone (ppb)

surface layer < < 40 ppb 40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

surface layer < < 40 ppb 40 ppb

Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

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SLIDE 15

Trends in 8-hour Ozone in the OTR: 1997-2009

240

0.153 0.131 0.135 0.133 0.133 0.137 0.130 0.123 0.121 0.130 0.125 0 112

180 200 220 0 12 0.14 0.16 # days > 84 ppb # days > 64 ppb MAX 8-hr

125 151 151 130 138 128 118 112 130 111 127 106 0.112 0.109

120 140 160 # Days 0.08 0.10 0.12 ncentration (ppm)

52 78 71 37 54 67 34 30 48 36 47 85

40 60 80 100 0.04 0.06 8-hour Ozone Con

30 26 11

20 40 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.00 0.02

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SLIDE 16

Ozone Conceptual Model Update: N C id ti & C l i New Considerations & Conclusions

Lower Ozone NAAQS

  • More ozone exceedances and a longer ozone season
  • Transport will play a greater role

– Transport component can often be > 70 ppb standard

  • High ozone levels at remote and high elevation area

monitors are indicative of transport and may also require action under the secondary standard

  • Need for national rules in addition to regional rules will
  • Need for national rules in addition to regional rules will

increase and is critical

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SLIDE 17

Ozone Conceptual Model Update: N C id ti & C l i New Considerations & Conclusions

Ozone Formation and Controls Ozone Formation and Controls

  • Ozone formation can be NOx-sensitive during some

times of day and VOC-sensitive during others y g

  • Need for NOx reductions across a larger region,

combined with localized VOC reductions in urban centers

  • Regional NOx SIP Call reductions showed greater ozone

improvements than predicted by modeling

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SLIDE 18

Ozone Conceptual Model Update: New Considerations & Conclusions

Climate Change

  • Warmer temperatures enhance ozone formation
  • Methane reductions might become a potentially
  • Methane reductions might become a potentially

effective future approach to address both global

  • zone levels and climate change
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SLIDE 19

Overview

1. Ozone Design Values 2. Conceptual Model Update

3 Emissions Inventory Updates 3. Emissions Inventory Updates a. Point Source Stakeholder Comments a. Point Source Stakeholder Comments b. Hourly Point Source Inventory c. Area, Nonroad and Onroad Inventories

4. Coming Attractions

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SLIDE 20

Point Source Stakeholder Comments Point Source Stakeholder Comments

  • About 30 comments received
  • Relatively minor revisions to emissions
  • Improvements to PM emissions (PM2.5, condensables)

– Limited new stack test data available to better quantify PM2.5

  • Revisions to stack parameters used for modeling

Identification of sources that have shut down

  • Identification of sources that have shut down

– Most were post-2007, so emissions kept in 2007 actual inventory – States to consider shutdowns in future year inventories

  • Nearly all Stakeholder comments were accepted by

States

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SLIDE 21

Change in Annual Emissions Change in Annual Emissions

  • Regionally, very little change in SO2, NOx, VOC, CO from
  • riginal State submittals
  • riginal State submittals
  • PM10 and PM2.5 increased due to addition of condensables

and gap-filling for PM2.5 when PM2.5 not provided g p g p

120,000 140,000 80,000 100,000

ssions (tons)

40,000 60,000

2007 Emis

Version 1.1 Version 1.2 Version 1.3 Version 1.4 20,000

PM2.5 PM10

Version 1.4

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SLIDE 22

NOx and VOC Emissions Inventory

NOx

4 000 000 5,000,000 6,000,000

Year

NOx

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000

Tons per Y Area Onroad Nonroad Non-EGU Point EGU Point

VOC

4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

Year

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000

Tons per Y Area Onroad Nonroad Non-EGU Point EGU Point

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SLIDE 23

High % of SO2 and NOx Emissions will be M d l d i A t l 2007 H l D t Modeled using Actual 2007 Hourly Data

  • 92% of Point Source SO2 has
  • 68% of Point Source NOx has

2007 actual hourly data 2007 actual hourly data

8%

Actual Hourly

32%

Actual Hourly

92%

Default Hourly

68% 3 %

Default Hourly Profiles

92%

Profiles Profiles

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SLIDE 24

Remaining Emission Inventory Tasks

  • 2007 Inventory
  • Complete area source, marine, air, rail, and

Complete area source, marine, air, rail, and

  • n-road mobile
  • Continue to work with EPA on MOVES
  • Inventories for other regions & Canada

Future baseline inventories 2013 2017 2020

  • Future baseline inventories – 2013, 2017, 2020
  • Projections for non-EGU point, area,

marine air and rail marine, air, and rail

  • Run NONROAD for future years
  • Run MOVES for future years

y

  • Inventories for other regions & Canada
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SLIDE 25

Inventory Schedule Inventory Schedule

  • Summer 2010

Summer 2010

– Stakeholder review of additional 2007 inventory elements as completed inventory elements as completed – Stakeholder review of future year projections as developed as developed – Analysis of inventory data – Updates and corrections in response Updates and corrections in response comments

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SLIDE 26

Overview

1. Ozone Design Values 2. Conceptual Model Update 3. Emissions Inventory Updates

4. Coming Attractions:

  • a. Screening Runs
  • b. EGU Analysis
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SLIDE 27

Screening Runs

Purpose Investigate the level of emissions reductions needed to achieve the current NAAQS of 75 ppb and the potentially lower new NAAQS in the 60 current NAAQS of 75 ppb and the potentially lower new NAAQS in the 60 to 70 ppb range Design of the exercise Perform screening simulations with existing data based on across-the- board reduction in emissions, as well as a simulation incorporating OTC- recommended national and local measures Approach

  • Meteorology based on WRF for 2007

Emissions data scaled to 2007

  • Emissions data scaled to 2007
  • Biogenic emissions based on MEGAN
  • Photochemical model – CMAQ with CB5

Results - will be presented in a webinar early this summer.

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SLIDE 28

Emissions Data Analysis

Purpose: Purpose: Investigate the level and variability of emissions from EGUs with differing operating characteristics Inform the on-going High Electric Demand Day work of the OTC

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SLIDE 29

Questions

Conceptual Model: Paul Miller (pmiller@nescaum org) Paul Miller (pmiller@nescaum.org) Emissions Inventory: S Wi (S i @ ) Susan Wierman (Swierman@marama.org) Screening Modeling Lead: G l Si tl (G i tl @ d t t ) Gopal Sistla (Gxsistla@gw.dec.state.ny.us) Committee Work and Schedule: B b K t (B b K t @ t t ) Barbara Kwetz (Barbara.Kwetz@state.ma.us)

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SLIDE 30

Stakeholder Involvement Stakeholder Involvement

About 30 Comments Received from these Companies:

  • Sikorsky Aircraft
  • Covanta Energy
  • Georgia Pacific Gypsum
  • E.R. Squibb and Sons

gy

  • Hamilton Sundstrand
  • NRG Energy

q

  • Schering Corp.
  • ConocoPhillips

Ai E i i

  • Transcontinental Gas
  • Saint Gobain Containers

RRI E

  • Air Engineering
  • Actavis
  • PSEG Power
  • RRI Energy
  • BASF
  • Merck & Co

S G

  • e
  • National Lime Association
  • Michigan Cogen Systems
  • Merck & Co.